Language:English
Felix Auger-Aliassime v Novak Djokovic
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Felix Auger-Aliassime (Local)
Prediction 43.27%2.31fair odd
EV +6.00%
Edge +2.45%
Kelly +4.14%
Growth +0.249%
assuming max odds 2.45
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
37.97%43.26%43.38%47.44%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.952.182.162.4551.28%45.83%46.30%40.82%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Novak Djokovic (Visit)
Prediction 56.73%1.76fair odd
EV +2.12%
Edge +1.18%
Kelly +2.65%
Growth +0.056%
assuming max odds 1.80
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
52.56%56.74%56.62%62.03%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.501.671.651.8066.67%59.95%60.42%55.56%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Felix Auger-Aliassime (Local): 43.27%; Novak Djokovic (Visit): 56.73%. For Felix Auger-Aliassime (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.31. 13 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.45, corresponding to a positive expected value of +6.00%.
Sportsbook Odds (64 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 37.97%EV +6.00%E +2.45%K +4.14%G +0.249% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.03%EV -14.90%E -9.93%K -29.80%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-07-07 16:40 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 37.97%EV +6.00%E +2.45%K +4.14%G +0.249% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.03%EV -14.90%E -9.93%K -29.80%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-07-07 16:40 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 40.45%EV +3.84%E +1.60%K +2.74%G +0.105% | 1.63I 61.35%NM 59.55%EV -7.53%E -4.62%K -11.95%G +0.000% | 3.0% | 2026-07-07 16:28 |
| Bovada🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 40.30%EV +3.84%E +1.60%K +2.74%G +0.105% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 59.70%EV -8.09%E -5.00%K -13.05%G +0.000% | 3.4% | 2026-07-07 16:19 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 40.00%EV +3.84%E +1.60%K +2.74%G +0.105% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 60.00%EV -9.23%E -5.77%K -15.38%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-07-07 16:20 |
| MyBookie.ag🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 40.00%EV +3.84%E +1.60%K +2.74%G +0.105% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 60.00%EV -9.23%E -5.77%K -15.38%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-07-07 16:40 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 40.00%EV +3.84%E +1.60%K +2.74%G +0.105% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 60.00%EV -9.23%E -5.77%K -15.38%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-07-07 16:20 |
| ReBet🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 40.00%EV +3.84%E +1.60%K +2.74%G +0.105% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 60.00%EV -9.23%E -5.77%K -15.38%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-07-07 16:20 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.93%EV +3.84%E +1.60%K +2.74%G +0.105% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 61.07%EV -13.20%E -8.63%K -24.90%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-07-07 16:39 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 41.54%EV +1.68%E +0.714%K +1.24%G +0.021% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 58.46%EV -5.26%E -3.15%K -7.85%G +0.000% | 2.4% | 2026-07-07 16:30 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.95%EV +1.68%E +0.714%K +1.24%G +0.021% | 1.63I 61.35%NM 59.05%EV -7.53%E -4.62%K -11.95%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-07-07 16:19 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.66%EV +1.68%E +0.714%K +1.24%G +0.021% | 1.61I 62.11%NM 59.34%EV -8.66%E -5.38%K -14.20%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-07-07 16:20 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 2.32I 43.10%NM 40.51%EV +0.380%E +0.164%K +0.288%G +0.001% | 1.58I 63.29%NM 59.49%EV -10.36%E -6.56%K -17.87%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-07-07 16:19 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.62%EV -0.486%E -0.211%K -0.373%G +0.000% | 1.64I 60.98%NM 58.38%EV -6.96%E -4.24%K -10.87%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-07-07 16:39 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.48%EV -0.486%E -0.211%K -0.373%G +0.000% | 1.63I 61.35%NM 58.52%EV -7.53%E -4.62%K -11.95%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-07-07 16:35 |
| William Hill🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -0.486%E -0.211%K -0.373%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -8.09%E -5.00%K -13.05%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-07-07 16:20 |
| BetUS🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -0.486%E -0.211%K -0.373%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -8.09%E -5.00%K -13.05%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-07-07 16:29 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -0.486%E -0.211%K -0.373%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -8.09%E -5.00%K -13.05%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-07-07 16:40 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.03%EV -0.486%E -0.211%K -0.373%G +0.000% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 58.97%EV -9.23%E -5.77%K -15.38%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-07-07 16:20 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.03%EV -0.486%E -0.211%K -0.373%G +0.000% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 58.97%EV -9.23%E -5.77%K -15.38%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-07-07 16:35 |
| Dabble (AU)🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.72%EV -0.486%E -0.211%K -0.373%G +0.000% | 1.58I 63.29%NM 59.28%EV -10.36%E -6.56%K -17.87%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-07-07 16:35 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 2.29I 43.67%NM 41.73%EV -0.918%E -0.401%K -0.712%G +0.000% | 1.64I 60.98%NM 58.27%EV -6.96%E -4.24%K -10.87%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-07-07 16:33 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.46%EV -2.65%E -1.18%K -2.12%G +0.000% | 1.66I 60.24%NM 57.54%EV -5.82%E -3.51%K -8.82%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-07-07 16:30 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.86%EV -2.65%E -1.18%K -2.12%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%EV -8.09%E -5.00%K -13.05%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-07-07 16:19 |
| Neds🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.86%EV -2.65%E -1.18%K -2.12%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%EV -8.09%E -5.00%K -13.05%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-07-07 16:20 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.86%EV -2.65%E -1.18%K -2.12%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%EV -8.09%E -5.00%K -13.05%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-07-07 16:19 |
| Caesars🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.86%EV -2.65%E -1.18%K -2.12%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%EV -8.09%E -5.00%K -13.05%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-07-07 16:34 |
| Coral🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.10%EV -2.65%E -1.18%K -2.12%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 58.90%EV -10.93%E -6.96%K -19.17%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-07-07 16:40 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.86%EV -4.81%E -2.19%K -4.01%G +0.000% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.14%EV -6.39%E -3.87%K -9.83%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-07-07 16:40 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.41%EV -4.81%E -2.19%K -4.01%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 57.59%EV -8.09%E -5.00%K -13.05%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-07-07 16:39 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.26%EV -4.81%E -2.19%K -4.01%G +0.000% | 1.61I 62.11%NM 57.74%EV -8.66%E -5.38%K -14.20%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-07-07 16:40 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 2.16I 46.30%NM 44.04%EV -6.54%E -3.03%K -5.64%G +0.000% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.96%EV -3.55%E -2.09%K -5.08%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-07-07 16:40 |
| Casumo🎯 | 2.16I 46.30%NM 44.04%EV -6.54%E -3.03%K -5.64%G +0.000% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.96%EV -3.55%E -2.09%K -5.08%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-07-07 16:40 |
| TAB🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -6.98%E -3.24%K -6.07%G +0.000% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%EV -3.55%E -2.09%K -5.08%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-07-07 16:40 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.01%EV -6.98%E -3.24%K -6.07%G +0.000% | 1.69I 59.17%NM 55.99%EV -4.12%E -2.44%K -5.97%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-07-07 16:40 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 2.13I 46.95%NM 44.82%EV -7.84%E -3.68%K -6.94%G +0.000% | 1.73I 57.80%NM 55.18%EV -1.85%E -1.07%K -2.54%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-07-07 16:40 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 2.12I 47.17%NM 44.06%EV -8.27%E -3.90%K -7.39%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 55.94%EV -5.26%E -3.15%K -7.85%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-07-07 16:40 |
| Betway🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.45%EV -9.14%E -4.35%K -8.31%G +0.000% | 1.75I 57.14%NM 54.55%EV -0.718%E -0.410%K -0.957%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-07-07 16:40 |
| 888sport🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.30%EV -9.14%E -4.35%K -8.31%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 55.70%EV -5.26%E -3.15%K -7.85%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-07-07 16:40 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.30%EV -9.14%E -4.35%K -8.31%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 55.70%EV -5.26%E -3.15%K -7.85%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-07-07 16:40 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.30%EV -9.14%E -4.35%K -8.31%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 55.70%EV -5.26%E -3.15%K -7.85%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-07-07 16:40 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 2.08I 48.08%NM 45.26%EV -10.00%E -4.81%K -9.26%G +0.000% | 1.72I 58.14%NM 54.74%EV -2.42%E -1.41%K -3.36%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-07-07 16:40 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 2.08I 48.08%NM 44.97%EV -10.00%E -4.81%K -9.26%G +0.000% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.03%EV -3.55%E -2.09%K -5.08%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-07-07 16:40 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 2.07I 48.31%NM 44.65%EV -10.44%E -5.04%K -9.75%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 55.35%EV -5.26%E -3.15%K -7.85%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-07-07 16:40 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.05%EV -11.30%E -5.51%K -10.76%G +0.000% | 1.75I 57.14%NM 53.95%EV -0.718%E -0.410%K -0.957%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-07-07 16:40 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 44.59%EV -11.30%E -5.51%K -10.76%G +0.000% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 55.41%EV -6.39%E -3.87%K -9.83%G +0.000% | 9.4% | 2026-07-07 16:40 |
| Fliff🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 44.59%EV -11.30%E -5.51%K -10.76%G +0.000% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 55.41%EV -6.39%E -3.87%K -9.83%G +0.000% | 9.4% | 2026-07-07 16:40 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 2.04I 49.02%NM 46.60%EV -11.73%E -5.75%K -11.28%G +0.000% | 1.78I 56.18%NM 53.40%EV +0.984%E +0.553%K +1.26%G +0.012% | 5.2% | 2026-07-07 16:40 |
| Unibet🎯 | 2.04I 49.02%NM 46.60%EV -11.73%E -5.75%K -11.28%G +0.000% | 1.78I 56.18%NM 53.40%EV +0.984%E +0.553%K +1.26%G +0.012% | 5.2% | 2026-07-07 16:40 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 2.04I 49.02%NM 46.60%EV -11.73%E -5.75%K -11.28%G +0.000% | 1.78I 56.18%NM 53.40%EV +0.984%E +0.553%K +1.26%G +0.012% | 5.2% | 2026-07-07 16:40 |
| betPARX🎯 | 2.04I 49.02%NM 46.60%EV -11.73%E -5.75%K -11.28%G +0.000% | 1.78I 56.18%NM 53.40%EV +0.984%E +0.553%K +1.26%G +0.012% | 5.2% | 2026-07-07 16:40 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 2.04I 49.02%NM 46.60%EV -11.73%E -5.75%K -11.28%G +0.000% | 1.78I 56.18%NM 53.40%EV +0.984%E +0.553%K +1.26%G +0.012% | 5.2% | 2026-07-07 16:40 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 2.02I 49.50%NM 47.12%EV -12.60%E -6.24%K -12.35%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.88%EV +2.12%E +1.18%K +2.65%G +0.056% | 5.1% | 2026-07-07 16:40 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 2.02I 49.50%NM 46.70%EV -12.60%E -6.24%K -12.35%G +0.000% | 1.77I 56.50%NM 53.30%EV +0.417%E +0.236%K +0.542%G +0.002% | 6.0% | 2026-07-07 16:40 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 2.02I 49.50%NM 46.70%EV -12.60%E -6.24%K -12.35%G +0.000% | 1.77I 56.50%NM 53.30%EV +0.417%E +0.236%K +0.542%G +0.002% | 6.0% | 2026-07-07 16:40 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -13.47%E -6.73%K -13.47%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV +2.12%E +1.18%K +2.65%G +0.056% | 5.6% | 2026-07-07 16:40 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.67%EV -13.47%E -6.73%K -13.47%G +0.000% | 1.75I 57.14%NM 53.33%EV -0.718%E -0.410%K -0.957%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-07-07 16:40 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.67%EV -13.47%E -6.73%K -13.47%G +0.000% | 1.75I 57.14%NM 53.33%EV -0.718%E -0.410%K -0.957%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-07-07 16:40 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.67%EV -13.47%E -6.73%K -13.47%G +0.000% | 1.75I 57.14%NM 53.33%EV -0.718%E -0.410%K -0.957%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-07-07 16:40 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.67%EV -13.47%E -6.73%K -13.47%G +0.000% | 1.75I 57.14%NM 53.33%EV -0.718%E -0.410%K -0.957%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-07-07 16:40 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 45.65%EV -13.47%E -6.73%K -13.47%G +0.000% | 1.68I 59.52%NM 54.35%EV -4.69%E -2.79%K -6.90%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-07-07 16:40 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.98I 50.51%NM 45.30%EV -14.33%E -7.24%K -14.62%G +0.000% | 1.64I 60.98%NM 54.70%EV -6.96%E -4.24%K -10.87%G +0.000% | 11.5% | 2026-07-07 16:40 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.96I 51.02%NM 46.88%EV -15.20%E -7.75%K -15.83%G +0.000% | 1.73I 57.80%NM 53.12%EV -1.85%E -1.07%K -2.54%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-07-07 16:40 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 47.44%EV -15.63%E -8.01%K -16.45%G +0.000% | 1.76I 56.82%NM 52.56%EV -0.150%E -0.085%K -0.198%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-07-07 16:40 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (7)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 2.40I 41.67%NM 41.46% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 58.54% | 0.5% | 2026-07-07 16:40 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 2.42I 41.32%NM 41.12% | 1.69I 59.17%NM 58.88% | 0.5% | 2026-07-07 16:35 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 2.34I 42.74%NM 42.22% | 1.71I 58.48%NM 57.78% | 1.2% | 2026-07-07 16:40 |
| Matchbook◎ | 2.24I 44.64%NM 43.86% | 1.75I 57.14%NM 56.14% | 1.8% | 2026-07-07 16:40 |
| ProphetX◎ | 2.12I 47.17%NM 46.06% | 1.81I 55.25%NM 53.94% | 2.4% | 2026-07-07 16:40 |
| Smarkets◎ | 2.38I 42.02%NM 40.94% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 59.06% | 2.6% | 2026-07-07 16:40 |
| Novig◎ | 2.17I 46.08%NM 42.59% | 1.61I 62.11%NM 57.41% | 8.2% | 2026-07-07 16:40 |