The School of Odds

Martin Damm Jr. v Ben Shelton

2026-07-28 15:00 UTC — ATP Washington Open

Head to Head

11 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: IQM

Martin Damm Jr. (Local)

Prediction 28.42%3.52fair odd
EV +2.32%
Edge +0.646%
Kelly +0.894%
Growth +0.021%

assuming max odds 3.60

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.38%28.21%28.65%30.23%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
3.003.313.303.6033.33%30.22%30.30%27.78%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Ben Shelton (Visit)

Prediction 71.58%1.40fair odd
EV -4.80%
Edge -3.61%
Kelly -14.55%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.33

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
69.77%71.79%71.35%73.62%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
1.291.311.311.3377.52%76.18%76.34%75.19%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Sportsbook Odds (11 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
888sport3.60I 27.78%NM 26.38%EV +2.32%E +0.646%K +0.894%G +0.021%1.29I 77.52%NM 73.62%EV -7.67%E -5.94%K -26.43%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-27 05:50
DraftKings3.48I 28.74%NM 27.35%EV -1.09%E -0.312%K -0.438%G +0.000%1.31I 76.34%NM 72.65%EV -6.23%E -4.76%K -20.11%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-27 05:50
Bovada3.40I 29.41%NM 28.12%EV -3.36%E -0.988%K -1.40%G +0.000%1.33I 75.19%NM 71.88%EV -4.80%E -3.61%K -14.55%G +0.000%4.6%2026-07-27 06:35
Bet Right3.35I 29.85%NM 28.42%EV -4.78%E -1.43%K -2.03%G +0.000%1.33I 75.19%NM 71.58%EV -4.80%E -3.61%K -14.55%G +0.000%5.0%2026-07-27 05:55
SportsBet3.32I 30.12%NM 28.14%EV -5.63%E -1.70%K -2.43%G +0.000%1.30I 76.92%NM 71.86%EV -6.95%E -5.35%K -23.17%G +0.000%7.0%2026-07-27 05:45
Betr (AU)3.30I 30.30%NM 28.57%EV -6.20%E -1.88%K -2.70%G +0.000%1.32I 75.76%NM 71.43%EV -5.52%E -4.18%K -17.25%G +0.000%6.1%2026-07-27 05:55
PointsBet (AU)3.30I 30.30%NM 28.42%EV -6.20%E -1.88%K -2.70%G +0.000%1.31I 76.34%NM 71.58%EV -6.23%E -4.76%K -20.11%G +0.000%6.6%2026-07-27 05:30
Fanatics3.25I 30.77%NM 29.04%EV -7.62%E -2.35%K -3.39%G +0.000%1.33I 75.19%NM 70.96%EV -4.80%E -3.61%K -14.55%G +0.000%6.0%2026-07-27 05:43
theScore Bet3.20I 31.25%NM 29.20%EV -9.05%E -2.83%K -4.11%G +0.000%1.32I 75.76%NM 70.80%EV -5.52%E -4.18%K -17.25%G +0.000%7.0%2026-07-27 05:45
BoyleSports3.20I 31.25%NM 28.89%EV -9.05%E -2.83%K -4.11%G +0.000%1.30I 76.92%NM 71.11%EV -6.95%E -5.35%K -23.17%G +0.000%8.2%2026-07-27 06:10
ReBet3.00I 33.33%NM 30.23%EV -14.73%E -4.91%K -7.37%G +0.000%1.30I 76.92%NM 69.77%EV -6.95%E -5.35%K -23.17%G +0.000%10.3%2026-07-27 05:45
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (4)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.03I 97.09%NM 50.00%1.03I 97.09%NM 50.00%94.2%2026-07-27 05:30
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.03I 97.09%NM 50.00%1.03I 97.09%NM 50.00%94.2%2026-07-27 05:30
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.03I 97.09%NM 50.00%1.03I 97.09%NM 50.00%94.2%2026-07-27 05:30
ProphetX1.01I 99.01%NM 50.00%1.01I 99.01%NM 50.00%98.0%2026-07-27 05:30