L’École des cotes

Alex Michelsen v Jack Draper

2026-07-28 14:00 UTC — ATP Washington Open

Résultat du match

39 opérateurs (12 dans l’analyse )

Probabilité estimée de chaque issue selon le modèle : IQM

Alex Michelsen (Local)

Prévision 44.22%2.26cote équitable
EV +1.70%
Avantage +0.737%
Kelly +1.30%
Croissance +0.022%

avec la cote maximale 2.30

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
41.77%44.22%44.16%45.17%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
2.032.162.182.3049.26%46.40%45.87%43.48%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Jack Draper (Visiteur)

Prévision 55.78%1.79cote équitable
EV -3.49%
Avantage -2.02%
Kelly -4.78%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 1.73

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
54.83%55.78%55.84%58.23%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
1.641.691.681.7360.98%59.17%59.52%57.80%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Cotes des opérateurs (39 opérateurs)

Nous ne sommes affiliés à aucun opérateur de paris et ne tirons aucun bénéfice des opérations réalisées auprès d’eux.

OpérateurLocal ▼VisiteurMargeMise à jour
Bovada2.30I 43.48%NM 41.77%EV +1.70%E +0.737%K +1.30%G +0.022%1.65I 60.61%NM 58.23%EV -7.96%E -4.82%K -12.24%G +0.000%4.1%2026-07-27 01:55
BetAnything2.25I 44.44%NM 42.89%EV -0.515%E -0.229%K -0.412%G +0.000%1.69I 59.17%NM 57.11%EV -5.72%E -3.39%K -8.30%G +0.000%3.6%2026-07-27 02:55
BetUS2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -0.515%E -0.229%K -0.412%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -7.96%E -4.82%K -12.24%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-27 03:20
BetOnline.ag2.22I 45.05%NM 43.37%EV -1.84%E -0.830%K -1.51%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 56.63%EV -5.17%E -3.04%K -7.38%G +0.000%3.9%2026-07-27 03:30
LowVig.ag2.22I 45.05%NM 43.37%EV -1.84%E -0.830%K -1.51%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 56.63%EV -5.17%E -3.04%K -7.38%G +0.000%3.9%2026-07-27 03:30
Pinnacle2.20I 45.45%NM 44.02%EV -2.73%E -1.24%K -2.27%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 55.98%EV -3.49%E -2.02%K -4.78%G +0.000%3.3%2026-07-27 01:40
Hard Rock Bet2.20I 45.45%NM 43.44%EV -2.73%E -1.24%K -2.27%G +0.000%1.69I 59.17%NM 56.56%EV -5.72%E -3.39%K -8.30%G +0.000%4.6%2026-07-27 02:00
FanDuel2.18I 45.87%NM 43.81%EV -3.61%E -1.66%K -3.06%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 56.19%EV -5.17%E -3.04%K -7.38%G +0.000%4.7%2026-07-27 02:00
Bally Bet2.18I 45.87%NM 43.52%EV -3.61%E -1.66%K -3.06%G +0.000%1.68I 59.52%NM 56.48%EV -6.28%E -3.74%K -9.24%G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-27 02:00
ATG (SE)2.18I 45.87%NM 43.52%EV -3.61%E -1.66%K -3.06%G +0.000%1.68I 59.52%NM 56.48%EV -6.28%E -3.74%K -9.24%G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-27 02:00
betPARX2.18I 45.87%NM 43.52%EV -3.61%E -1.66%K -3.06%G +0.000%1.68I 59.52%NM 56.48%EV -6.28%E -3.74%K -9.24%G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-27 02:01
Casumo2.18I 45.87%NM 43.52%EV -3.61%E -1.66%K -3.06%G +0.000%1.68I 59.52%NM 56.48%EV -6.28%E -3.74%K -9.24%G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-27 02:00
Grosvenor2.18I 45.87%NM 43.52%EV -3.61%E -1.66%K -3.06%G +0.000%1.68I 59.52%NM 56.48%EV -6.28%E -3.74%K -9.24%G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-27 02:00
LeoVegas (SE)2.18I 45.87%NM 43.52%EV -3.61%E -1.66%K -3.06%G +0.000%1.68I 59.52%NM 56.48%EV -6.28%E -3.74%K -9.24%G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-27 02:05
TABtouch2.18I 45.87%NM 43.52%EV -3.61%E -1.66%K -3.06%G +0.000%1.68I 59.52%NM 56.48%EV -6.28%E -3.74%K -9.24%G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-27 02:05
Unibet2.18I 45.87%NM 43.52%EV -3.61%E -1.66%K -3.06%G +0.000%1.68I 59.52%NM 56.48%EV -6.28%E -3.74%K -9.24%G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-27 02:05
Unibet (NL)2.18I 45.87%NM 43.52%EV -3.61%E -1.66%K -3.06%G +0.000%1.68I 59.52%NM 56.48%EV -6.28%E -3.74%K -9.24%G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-27 02:35
Unibet (SE)2.18I 45.87%NM 43.52%EV -3.61%E -1.66%K -3.06%G +0.000%1.68I 59.52%NM 56.48%EV -6.28%E -3.74%K -9.24%G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-27 02:35
Svenska Spel2.18I 45.87%NM 43.52%EV -3.61%E -1.66%K -3.06%G +0.000%1.68I 59.52%NM 56.48%EV -6.28%E -3.74%K -9.24%G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-27 02:35
BetRivers2.18I 45.87%NM 43.52%EV -3.61%E -1.66%K -3.06%G +0.000%1.68I 59.52%NM 56.48%EV -6.28%E -3.74%K -9.24%G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-27 03:10
SportsBet2.15I 46.51%NM 44.44%EV -4.94%E -2.30%K -4.29%G +0.000%1.72I 58.14%NM 55.56%EV -4.05%E -2.36%K -5.63%G +0.000%4.7%2026-07-27 02:35
Fanatics2.15I 46.51%NM 44.01%EV -4.94%E -2.30%K -4.29%G +0.000%1.69I 59.17%NM 55.99%EV -5.72%E -3.39%K -8.30%G +0.000%5.7%2026-07-27 02:50
BetMGM2.15I 46.51%NM 43.72%EV -4.94%E -2.30%K -4.29%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 56.28%EV -6.84%E -4.10%K -10.21%G +0.000%6.4%2026-07-27 04:40
DraftKings2.14I 46.73%NM 44.56%EV -5.38%E -2.51%K -4.72%G +0.000%1.72I 58.14%NM 55.44%EV -4.05%E -2.36%K -5.63%G +0.000%4.9%2026-07-27 02:50
Bet Right2.14I 46.73%NM 44.42%EV -5.38%E -2.51%K -4.72%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 55.58%EV -4.61%E -2.70%K -6.49%G +0.000%5.2%2026-07-27 06:20
PMU (FR)2.12I 47.17%NM 43.77%EV -6.26%E -2.95%K -5.59%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 56.23%EV -7.96%E -4.82%K -12.24%G +0.000%7.8%2026-07-27 03:05
888sport2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -7.15%E -3.40%K -6.50%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -3.49%E -2.02%K -4.78%G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-27 02:45
Mr Green (SE)2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -7.15%E -3.40%K -6.50%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -3.49%E -2.02%K -4.78%G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-27 02:50
888sport (SE)2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -7.15%E -3.40%K -6.50%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -3.49%E -2.02%K -4.78%G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-27 03:25
PlayUp2.10I 47.62%NM 45.03%EV -7.15%E -3.40%K -6.50%G +0.000%1.72I 58.14%NM 54.97%EV -4.05%E -2.36%K -5.63%G +0.000%5.8%2026-07-27 03:05
PointsBet (AU)2.10I 47.62%NM 44.88%EV -7.15%E -3.40%K -6.50%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 55.12%EV -4.61%E -2.70%K -6.49%G +0.000%6.1%2026-07-27 03:00
Betway2.10I 47.62%NM 44.74%EV -7.15%E -3.40%K -6.50%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 55.26%EV -5.17%E -3.04%K -7.38%G +0.000%6.4%2026-07-27 01:55
Betr (AU)2.10I 47.62%NM 44.74%EV -7.15%E -3.40%K -6.50%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 55.26%EV -5.17%E -3.04%K -7.38%G +0.000%6.4%2026-07-27 06:20
TAB2.10I 47.62%NM 44.74%EV -7.15%E -3.40%K -6.50%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 55.26%EV -5.17%E -3.04%K -7.38%G +0.000%6.4%2026-07-27 05:20
theScore Bet2.10I 47.62%NM 44.59%EV -7.15%E -3.40%K -6.50%G +0.000%1.69I 59.17%NM 55.41%EV -5.72%E -3.39%K -8.30%G +0.000%6.8%2026-07-27 02:00
Neds2.10I 47.62%NM 44.44%EV -7.15%E -3.40%K -6.50%G +0.000%1.68I 59.52%NM 55.56%EV -6.28%E -3.74%K -9.24%G +0.000%7.1%2026-07-27 04:46
Ladbrokes (AU)2.10I 47.62%NM 44.44%EV -7.15%E -3.40%K -6.50%G +0.000%1.68I 59.52%NM 55.56%EV -6.28%E -3.74%K -9.24%G +0.000%7.1%2026-07-27 04:46
BoyleSports2.10I 47.62%NM 44.30%EV -7.15%E -3.40%K -6.50%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 55.70%EV -6.84%E -4.10%K -10.21%G +0.000%7.5%2026-07-27 04:46
ReBet2.03I 49.26%NM 44.69%EV -10.24%E -5.05%K -9.94%G +0.000%1.64I 60.98%NM 55.31%EV -8.51%E -5.19%K -13.30%G +0.000%10.2%2026-07-27 03:20
Marge = Marge · I = Probabilité implicite · NM = Probabilité sans marge · EV = Espérance mathématique · E = Avantage · K = Critère de Kelly · G = Croissance du capital de jeu

Mise à jour indique le dernier changement de prix de chaque opérateur. Une heure ancienne signifie donc seulement que la cote n’a pas bougé, et non qu’elle est périmée. Les opérateurs absents du flux depuis environ 15 minutes sont normalement écartés ; les derniers prix enregistrés ne sont conservés que si le flux de tout le marché devient silencieux.

Plateformes d’échange (5)

OpérateurLocalVisiteurMarge ▲Mise à jour
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.24I 44.64%NM 44.00%1.76I 56.82%NM 56.00%1.5%2026-07-27 07:50
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.24I 44.64%NM 44.00%1.76I 56.82%NM 56.00%1.5%2026-07-27 07:50
Novig2.27I 44.05%NM 43.39%1.74I 57.47%NM 56.61%1.5%2026-07-27 05:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.24I 44.64%NM 43.86%1.75I 57.14%NM 56.14%1.8%2026-07-27 07:50
ProphetX2.22I 45.05%NM 43.94%1.74I 57.47%NM 56.06%2.5%2026-07-27 07:50