Modelo predefinidoMédia interquartílica (Lista Curada)

Martin Landaluce v Jacob Fearnley

Início: 2026-08-30 23:18 UTC

Final: Martin Landaluce 2–3 Jacob Fearnley

Odds de fecho — as probabilidades calculadas e o valor esperado com base nas últimas cotações registadas antes do início, segundo o modelo selecionado. O jogo já começou, pelo que estes valores não são atuais. Avaliar a fiabilidade das previsões probabilísticas de cada modelo face aos resultados de todos os jogos concluídos →

Frente a frente

62 casas de apostas (20 na análise )

Probabilidade estimada de cada resultado, segundo o modelo: Média interquartílica (Lista Curada)

Martin Landaluce (Local)

Previsão 52.26%1.91odd justa
EV +6.62%
Vantagem +3.24%
Kelly +6.36%
Crescimento +0.421%

pressupondo odds máximas de 2.04

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
48.28%52.23%52.17%54.26%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
1.731.811.802.0457.80%55.10%55.56%49.02%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Jacob Fearnley (Visitante)

Previsão 47.74%2.09odd justa
EV +0.247%
Vantagem +0.118%
Kelly +0.224%
Crescimento +0.001%

pressupondo odds máximas de 2.10

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
45.74%47.77%47.83%51.72%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
1.832.002.002.1054.64%50.05%50.00%47.62%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Nas últimas odds antes do início, Média interquartílica (Lista Curada) estimava para Frente a frente: Martin Landaluce (Local): 52.26%; Jacob Fearnley (Visitante): 47.74%. Para Martin Landaluce (Local), essa estimativa equivalia a odds decimais justas de 1.91. 2 casas de apostas ofereciam odds de fecho acima desse nível; as melhores eram 2.04, correspondendo a um valor esperado positivo de +6.62%.

Odds das casas de apostas (62 casas de apostas)

Não temos qualquer vínculo com casas de apostas e não recebemos nada pelas ações realizadas junto delas.

Casa de apostasLocal ▼VisitanteMargemAtualização
1xBet🎯2.04I 49.02%NM 48.35%EV +6.62%E +3.24%K +6.36%G +0.421%1.91I 52.36%NM 51.65%EV -8.82%E -4.62%K -9.70%G +0.000%1.4%2026-08-29 06:20
Marathon Bet🎯1.96I 51.02%NM 48.28%EV +2.44%E +1.24%K +2.54%G +0.062%1.83I 54.64%NM 51.72%EV -12.64%E -6.91%K -15.23%G +0.000%5.7%2026-08-29 06:15
Coolbet🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 51.93%EV -2.27%E -1.21%K -2.61%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 48.07%EV -3.57%E -1.77%K -3.50%G +0.000%3.0%2026-08-30 23:05
betano_uk🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 51.68%EV -2.27%E -1.21%K -2.61%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 48.32%EV -4.53%E -2.26%K -4.53%G +0.000%3.5%2026-08-30 22:54
BetAnything🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 50.00%EV -2.27%E -1.21%K -2.61%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 50.00%EV -10.73%E -5.74%K -12.34%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-30 22:45
GTbets🎯1.86I 53.76%NM 52.43%EV -2.79%E -1.50%K -3.24%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 47.57%EV -2.14%E -1.04%K -2.04%G +0.000%2.5%2026-08-30 22:40
Winamax (DE)🎯1.86I 53.76%NM 51.81%EV -2.79%E -1.50%K -3.24%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 48.19%EV -4.53%E -2.26%K -4.53%G +0.000%3.8%2026-08-30 02:24
Pinnacle🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 52.56%EV -3.31%E -1.79%K -3.90%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 47.44%EV -2.14%E -1.04%K -2.04%G +0.000%2.8%2026-08-30 23:05
ReBet🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 52.07%EV -3.31%E -1.79%K -3.90%G +0.000%2.01I 49.75%NM 47.93%EV -4.05%E -2.01%K -4.01%G +0.000%3.8%2026-08-30 22:00
888sport🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 51.32%EV -3.31%E -1.79%K -3.90%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.68%EV -6.91%E -3.55%K -7.28%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-30 07:15
888sport (SE)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 51.32%EV -3.31%E -1.79%K -3.90%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.68%EV -6.91%E -3.55%K -7.28%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-30 07:15
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 51.32%EV -3.31%E -1.79%K -3.90%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.68%EV -6.91%E -3.55%K -7.28%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-30 07:15
William Hill🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 51.32%EV -3.31%E -1.79%K -3.90%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.68%EV -6.91%E -3.55%K -7.28%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-30 07:15
Betway🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 51.32%EV -3.31%E -1.79%K -3.90%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.68%EV -6.91%E -3.55%K -7.28%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-30 11:10
Winamax (FR)🎯1.84I 54.35%NM 52.08%EV -3.84%E -2.08%K -4.57%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.92%EV -4.53%E -2.26%K -4.53%G +0.000%4.3%2026-08-30 02:25
SportsBet🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 52.34%EV -4.36%E -2.38%K -5.25%G +0.000%2.01I 49.75%NM 47.66%EV -4.05%E -2.01%K -4.01%G +0.000%4.4%2026-08-30 22:19
Bovada🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -4.36%E -2.38%K -5.25%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -4.53%E -2.26%K -4.53%G +0.000%4.6%2026-08-30 22:49
FanDuel🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -4.36%E -2.38%K -5.25%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -4.53%E -2.26%K -4.53%G +0.000%4.6%2026-08-30 22:20
Sky Bet🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -4.36%E -2.38%K -5.25%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -4.53%E -2.26%K -4.53%G +0.000%4.6%2026-08-30 22:20
Unibet (FR)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 52.09%EV -4.36%E -2.38%K -5.25%G +0.000%1.99I 50.25%NM 47.91%EV -5.00%E -2.51%K -5.05%G +0.000%4.9%2026-08-30 22:00
Unibet (UK)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 52.09%EV -4.36%E -2.38%K -5.25%G +0.000%1.99I 50.25%NM 47.91%EV -5.00%E -2.51%K -5.05%G +0.000%4.9%2026-08-30 21:55
MyBookie.ag🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 52.09%EV -4.36%E -2.38%K -5.25%G +0.000%1.99I 50.25%NM 47.91%EV -5.00%E -2.51%K -5.05%G +0.000%4.9%2026-08-30 22:00
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.59%EV -4.36%E -2.38%K -5.25%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.41%EV -6.91%E -3.55%K -7.28%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-30 19:45
Neds🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 52.11%EV -4.88%E -2.68%K -5.95%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 47.89%EV -5.48%E -2.77%K -5.59%G +0.000%5.5%2026-08-30 22:20
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 52.11%EV -4.88%E -2.68%K -5.95%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 47.89%EV -5.48%E -2.77%K -5.59%G +0.000%5.5%2026-08-30 22:20
Betr (AU)🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 51.72%EV -4.88%E -2.68%K -5.95%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.28%EV -6.91%E -3.55%K -7.28%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-30 23:05
Fanatics🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -5.93%E -3.29%K -7.41%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -4.53%E -2.26%K -4.53%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-30 21:55
betfred_uk🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -5.93%E -3.29%K -7.41%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -4.53%E -2.26%K -4.53%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-30 19:45
BoyleSports🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -5.93%E -3.29%K -7.41%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -4.53%E -2.26%K -4.53%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-30 11:45
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -5.93%E -3.29%K -7.41%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -4.53%E -2.26%K -4.53%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-30 23:00
TAB🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -5.93%E -3.29%K -7.41%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -4.53%E -2.26%K -4.53%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-30 19:45
Paddy Power🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -5.93%E -3.29%K -7.41%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -4.53%E -2.26%K -4.53%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-30 22:20
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -5.93%E -3.29%K -7.41%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -4.53%E -2.26%K -4.53%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-30 22:20
LeoVegas🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.38%EV -5.93%E -3.29%K -7.41%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 47.62%EV -5.48%E -2.77%K -5.59%G +0.000%6.1%2026-08-30 22:00
BetMGM🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.38%EV -5.93%E -3.29%K -7.41%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 47.62%EV -5.48%E -2.77%K -5.59%G +0.000%6.1%2026-08-30 22:20
Betsson🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.13%EV -5.93%E -3.29%K -7.41%G +0.000%1.96I 51.02%NM 47.87%EV -6.44%E -3.28%K -6.70%G +0.000%6.6%2026-08-30 22:00
NordicBet🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.13%EV -5.93%E -3.29%K -7.41%G +0.000%1.96I 51.02%NM 47.87%EV -6.44%E -3.28%K -6.70%G +0.000%6.6%2026-08-30 22:00
theScore Bet🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.00%EV -5.93%E -3.29%K -7.41%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.00%EV -6.91%E -3.55%K -7.28%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-30 22:00
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.00%EV -5.93%E -3.29%K -7.41%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.00%EV -6.91%E -3.55%K -7.28%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-30 22:25
Coral🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.00%EV -5.93%E -3.29%K -7.41%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.00%EV -6.91%E -3.55%K -7.28%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-30 22:25
Caesars🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.00%EV -5.93%E -3.29%K -7.41%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.00%EV -6.91%E -3.55%K -7.28%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-30 17:10
Betclic (FR)🎯1.79I 55.87%NM 53.75%EV -6.45%E -3.60%K -8.16%G +0.000%2.08I 48.08%NM 46.25%EV -0.708%E -0.340%K -0.656%G +0.000%3.9%2026-08-30 23:04
Virgin Bet🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 53.40%EV -6.97%E -3.92%K -8.94%G +0.000%2.04I 49.02%NM 46.60%EV -2.62%E -1.28%K -2.52%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-30 18:50
Grosvenor🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 53.40%EV -6.97%E -3.92%K -8.94%G +0.000%2.04I 49.02%NM 46.60%EV -2.62%E -1.28%K -2.52%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-30 18:50
TABtouch🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 53.40%EV -6.97%E -3.92%K -8.94%G +0.000%2.04I 49.02%NM 46.60%EV -2.62%E -1.28%K -2.52%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-30 18:50
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 53.40%EV -6.97%E -3.92%K -8.94%G +0.000%2.04I 49.02%NM 46.60%EV -2.62%E -1.28%K -2.52%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-30 18:50
BetRivers🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 53.40%EV -6.97%E -3.92%K -8.94%G +0.000%2.04I 49.02%NM 46.60%EV -2.62%E -1.28%K -2.52%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-30 18:50
Unibet🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 53.40%EV -6.97%E -3.92%K -8.94%G +0.000%2.04I 49.02%NM 46.60%EV -2.62%E -1.28%K -2.52%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-30 18:50
Unibet (SE)🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 53.40%EV -6.97%E -3.92%K -8.94%G +0.000%2.04I 49.02%NM 46.60%EV -2.62%E -1.28%K -2.52%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-30 18:50
LiveScore Bet🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 53.40%EV -6.97%E -3.92%K -8.94%G +0.000%2.04I 49.02%NM 46.60%EV -2.62%E -1.28%K -2.52%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-30 18:50
Casumo🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 53.40%EV -6.97%E -3.92%K -8.94%G +0.000%2.04I 49.02%NM 46.60%EV -2.62%E -1.28%K -2.52%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-30 18:50
Unibet (NL)🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 53.40%EV -6.97%E -3.92%K -8.94%G +0.000%2.04I 49.02%NM 46.60%EV -2.62%E -1.28%K -2.52%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-30 18:50
ATG (SE)🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 53.40%EV -6.97%E -3.92%K -8.94%G +0.000%2.04I 49.02%NM 46.60%EV -2.62%E -1.28%K -2.52%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-30 18:50
betPARX🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 53.40%EV -6.97%E -3.92%K -8.94%G +0.000%2.04I 49.02%NM 46.60%EV -2.62%E -1.28%K -2.52%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-30 18:50
Bally Bet🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 53.40%EV -6.97%E -3.92%K -8.94%G +0.000%2.04I 49.02%NM 46.60%EV -2.62%E -1.28%K -2.52%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-30 18:50
Svenska Spel🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 53.40%EV -6.97%E -3.92%K -8.94%G +0.000%2.04I 49.02%NM 46.60%EV -2.62%E -1.28%K -2.52%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-30 18:50
NetBet (FR)🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 52.53%EV -6.97%E -3.92%K -8.94%G +0.000%1.97I 50.76%NM 47.47%EV -5.96%E -3.02%K -6.14%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-30 23:10
BetOnline.ag🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 54.26%EV -7.49%E -4.23%K -9.73%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.74%EV +0.247%E +0.118%K +0.224%G +0.001%4.1%2026-08-30 22:30
LowVig.ag🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 54.26%EV -7.49%E -4.23%K -9.73%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.74%EV +0.247%E +0.118%K +0.224%G +0.001%4.1%2026-08-30 22:30
DraftKings🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 53.42%EV -7.49%E -4.23%K -9.73%G +0.000%2.03I 49.26%NM 46.58%EV -3.09%E -1.52%K -3.00%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-30 21:10
PlayUp🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 53.30%EV -7.49%E -4.23%K -9.73%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 46.70%EV -3.57%E -1.77%K -3.50%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-30 23:10
PMU (FR)🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 53.62%EV -9.58%E -5.54%K -13.13%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.38%EV -4.53%E -2.26%K -4.53%G +0.000%7.8%2026-08-30 18:50
Margem = Margem · I = Probabilidade implícita · NM = Probabilidade sem margem · EV = Valor esperado · E = Vantagem · K = Critério de Kelly · G = Crescimento do capital de apostas

Atualização indica quando cada casa alterou a cotação pela última vez; uma hora mais antiga significa apenas que as odds não mudaram, não que estejam desatualizadas. As casas sem dados nos últimos ~15 minutos são normalmente excluídas; apenas quando a fonte de todo um mercado fica sem atualizações se mostram as últimas cotações registadas.

Bolsas de apostas (8)

Casa de apostasLocalVisitanteMargem ▲Atualização
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.88I 53.19%NM 53.00%2.12I 47.17%NM 47.00%0.4%2026-08-30 23:10
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.88I 53.19%NM 53.00%2.12I 47.17%NM 47.00%0.4%2026-08-30 23:10
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.88I 53.19%NM 53.00%2.12I 47.17%NM 47.00%0.4%2026-08-30 23:10
ProphetX◎1.85I 54.05%NM 53.75%2.15I 46.51%NM 46.25%0.6%2026-08-30 23:10
Matchbook◎1.88I 53.19%NM 52.76%2.10I 47.62%NM 47.24%0.8%2026-08-30 23:10
Novig◎1.87I 53.48%NM 53.02%2.11I 47.39%NM 46.98%0.9%2026-08-30 23:05
Smarkets◎1.85I 54.05%NM 52.93%2.08I 48.08%NM 47.07%2.1%2026-08-30 23:00
Kalshi◎1.85I 54.05%NM 52.93%2.08I 48.08%NM 47.07%2.1%2026-08-30 22:25