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Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)
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Marcos Giron v Ignacio Buse

Inicio: 2026-09-02 16:44 UTC

Final: Marcos Giron 2–3 Ignacio Buse

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

64 corredores (21 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Marcos Giron (Local)

Predicción 39.80%2.51momio equitativo
EV -0.489%
Ventaja -0.196%
Kelly -0.326%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.50

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
37.66%39.73%39.75%42.56%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.242.372.372.5044.64%42.15%42.19%40.00%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Ignacio Buse (Visitante)

Predicción 60.20%1.66momio equitativo
EV -0.075%
Ventaja -0.045%
Kelly -0.114%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.66

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
57.44%60.27%60.25%62.34%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.511.581.571.6666.23%63.42%63.69%60.24%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Con la última cotización anterior al inicio, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estimó estas probabilidades para Resultado del partido: Marcos Giron (Local): 39.80%; Ignacio Buse (Visitante): 60.20%. Para Ignacio Buse (Visitante), esa estimación equivalía a momios decimales justos de 1.661. Ningún corredor elegible ofreció momios de cierre superiores a ese nivel: los mejores fueron 1.660, con un valor esperado de -0.075%; no produjeron valor esperado positivo.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (64 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocal ▼VisitanteMargenActualizado
Betclic (FR)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.66%EV -0.489%E -0.196%K -0.326%G +0.000%1.51I 66.23%NM 62.34%EV -9.10%E -6.03%K -17.85%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-02 16:35
Pinnacle🎯2.46I 40.65%NM 39.56%EV -2.08%E -0.846%K -1.43%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 60.44%EV -3.09%E -1.92%K -5.06%G +0.000%2.8%2026-09-02 15:45
Coolbet🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 39.66%EV -2.48%E -1.01%K -1.71%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 60.34%EV -3.09%E -1.92%K -5.06%G +0.000%2.9%2026-09-02 16:28
Winamax (DE)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 39.21%EV -2.48%E -1.01%K -1.71%G +0.000%1.58I 63.29%NM 60.79%EV -4.89%E -3.10%K -8.43%G +0.000%4.1%2026-09-02 11:35
Unibet (FR)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.90%EV -2.48%E -1.01%K -1.71%G +0.000%1.56I 64.10%NM 61.10%EV -6.09%E -3.91%K -10.88%G +0.000%4.9%2026-09-02 11:50
Winamax (FR)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.90%EV -2.48%E -1.01%K -1.71%G +0.000%1.56I 64.10%NM 61.10%EV -6.09%E -3.91%K -10.88%G +0.000%4.9%2026-09-02 11:35
TAB🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.44%EV -2.48%E -1.01%K -1.71%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 61.56%EV -7.90%E -5.16%K -14.91%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-02 16:28
BetOnline.ag🎯2.42I 41.32%NM 40.10%EV -3.67%E -1.52%K -2.59%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 59.90%EV -2.48%E -1.53%K -4.01%G +0.000%3.1%2026-09-02 16:05
LowVig.ag🎯2.42I 41.32%NM 40.10%EV -3.67%E -1.52%K -2.59%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 59.90%EV -2.48%E -1.53%K -4.01%G +0.000%3.1%2026-09-02 16:05
Betway🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 40.00%EV -4.47%E -1.86%K -3.19%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 60.00%EV -3.69%E -2.30%K -6.15%G +0.000%4.2%2026-09-02 03:50
Bovada🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.85%EV -4.47%E -1.86%K -3.19%G +0.000%1.59I 62.89%NM 60.15%EV -4.29%E -2.70%K -7.27%G +0.000%4.6%2026-09-02 02:39
FanDuel🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.70%EV -4.47%E -1.86%K -3.19%G +0.000%1.58I 63.29%NM 60.30%EV -4.89%E -3.10%K -8.43%G +0.000%5.0%2026-09-02 14:40
LeoVegas🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.55%EV -4.47%E -1.86%K -3.19%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 60.45%EV -5.49%E -3.50%K -9.64%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-02 15:35
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.55%EV -4.47%E -1.86%K -3.19%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 60.45%EV -5.49%E -3.50%K -9.64%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-02 05:20
SportsBet🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.55%EV -4.47%E -1.86%K -3.19%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 60.45%EV -5.49%E -3.50%K -9.64%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-02 14:40
Neds🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.55%EV -4.47%E -1.86%K -3.19%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 60.45%EV -5.49%E -3.50%K -9.64%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-02 05:20
Paddy Power🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.55%EV -4.47%E -1.86%K -3.19%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 60.45%EV -5.49%E -3.50%K -9.64%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-02 14:40
BetMGM🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.39%EV -4.47%E -1.86%K -3.19%G +0.000%1.56I 64.10%NM 60.61%EV -6.09%E -3.91%K -10.88%G +0.000%5.8%2026-09-02 05:20
Tipico (DE)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.24%EV -4.47%E -1.86%K -3.19%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 60.76%EV -6.70%E -4.32%K -12.18%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-02 09:40
NetBet (FR)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.24%EV -4.47%E -1.86%K -3.19%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 60.76%EV -6.70%E -4.32%K -12.18%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-02 11:45
BetUS🎯2.39I 41.84%NM 39.95%EV -4.87%E -2.04%K -3.50%G +0.000%1.59I 62.89%NM 60.05%EV -4.29%E -2.70%K -7.27%G +0.000%4.7%2026-09-02 16:40
MyBookie.ag🎯2.39I 41.84%NM 39.80%EV -4.87%E -2.04%K -3.50%G +0.000%1.58I 63.29%NM 60.20%EV -4.89%E -3.10%K -8.43%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-02 09:44
Marathon Bet🎯2.39I 41.84%NM 39.65%EV -4.87%E -2.04%K -3.50%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 60.35%EV -5.49%E -3.50%K -9.64%G +0.000%5.5%2026-09-02 16:34
Unibet (UK)🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 39.90%EV -5.27%E -2.21%K -3.82%G +0.000%1.58I 63.29%NM 60.10%EV -4.89%E -3.10%K -8.43%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-02 09:10
888sport🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -5.27%E -2.21%K -3.82%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -5.49%E -3.50%K -9.64%G +0.000%5.7%2026-09-02 14:59
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -5.27%E -2.21%K -3.82%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -5.49%E -3.50%K -9.64%G +0.000%5.7%2026-09-02 15:00
888sport (SE)🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -5.27%E -2.21%K -3.82%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -5.49%E -3.50%K -9.64%G +0.000%5.7%2026-09-02 15:01
Sky Bet🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -5.27%E -2.21%K -3.82%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -5.49%E -3.50%K -9.64%G +0.000%5.7%2026-09-02 14:40
betfred_uk🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -5.27%E -2.21%K -3.82%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -5.49%E -3.50%K -9.64%G +0.000%5.7%2026-09-02 03:45
BoyleSports🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -5.27%E -2.21%K -3.82%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -5.49%E -3.50%K -9.64%G +0.000%5.7%2026-09-02 05:20
William Hill🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -5.27%E -2.21%K -3.82%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -5.49%E -3.50%K -9.64%G +0.000%5.7%2026-09-02 15:00
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.37I 42.19%NM 39.54%EV -5.66%E -2.39%K -4.13%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 60.46%EV -6.70%E -4.32%K -12.18%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-02 05:20
Coral🎯2.37I 42.19%NM 39.54%EV -5.66%E -2.39%K -4.13%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 60.46%EV -6.70%E -4.32%K -12.18%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-02 05:20
NordicBet🎯2.36I 42.37%NM 39.80%EV -6.06%E -2.57%K -4.46%G +0.000%1.56I 64.10%NM 60.20%EV -6.09%E -3.91%K -10.88%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-02 09:39
Betsson🎯2.36I 42.37%NM 39.80%EV -6.06%E -2.57%K -4.46%G +0.000%1.56I 64.10%NM 60.20%EV -6.09%E -3.91%K -10.88%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-02 09:25
theScore Bet🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.66%EV -6.46%E -2.75%K -4.78%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 59.34%EV -3.09%E -1.92%K -5.06%G +0.000%4.7%2026-09-02 09:25
BetAnything🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.66%EV -6.46%E -2.75%K -4.78%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 59.34%EV -3.09%E -1.92%K -5.06%G +0.000%4.7%2026-09-02 16:00
Hard Rock Bet🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.36%EV -6.46%E -2.75%K -4.78%G +0.000%1.59I 62.89%NM 59.64%EV -4.29%E -2.70%K -7.27%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-02 16:30
Unibet🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.20%EV -6.46%E -2.75%K -4.78%G +0.000%1.58I 63.29%NM 59.80%EV -4.89%E -3.10%K -8.43%G +0.000%5.8%2026-09-02 16:30
LiveScore Bet🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.20%EV -6.46%E -2.75%K -4.78%G +0.000%1.58I 63.29%NM 59.80%EV -4.89%E -3.10%K -8.43%G +0.000%5.8%2026-09-02 16:30
PlayUp🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.20%EV -6.46%E -2.75%K -4.78%G +0.000%1.58I 63.29%NM 59.80%EV -4.89%E -3.10%K -8.43%G +0.000%5.8%2026-09-02 16:30
Betr (AU)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.20%EV -6.46%E -2.75%K -4.78%G +0.000%1.58I 63.29%NM 59.80%EV -4.89%E -3.10%K -8.43%G +0.000%5.8%2026-09-02 16:40
Virgin Bet🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.20%EV -6.46%E -2.75%K -4.78%G +0.000%1.58I 63.29%NM 59.80%EV -4.89%E -3.10%K -8.43%G +0.000%5.8%2026-09-02 16:30
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.05%EV -6.46%E -2.75%K -4.78%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 59.95%EV -5.49%E -3.50%K -9.64%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-02 14:35
TABtouch🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.05%EV -6.46%E -2.75%K -4.78%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 59.95%EV -5.49%E -3.50%K -9.64%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-02 16:30
Casumo🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.05%EV -6.46%E -2.75%K -4.78%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 59.95%EV -5.49%E -3.50%K -9.64%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-02 16:30
Grosvenor🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.05%EV -6.46%E -2.75%K -4.78%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 59.95%EV -5.49%E -3.50%K -9.64%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-02 16:30
Unibet (NL)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.05%EV -6.46%E -2.75%K -4.78%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 59.95%EV -5.49%E -3.50%K -9.64%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-02 16:30
Svenska Spel🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.05%EV -6.46%E -2.75%K -4.78%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 59.95%EV -5.49%E -3.50%K -9.64%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-02 16:30
Bally Bet🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.05%EV -6.46%E -2.75%K -4.78%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 59.95%EV -5.49%E -3.50%K -9.64%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-02 16:30
ATG (SE)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.05%EV -6.46%E -2.75%K -4.78%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 59.95%EV -5.49%E -3.50%K -9.64%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-02 16:30
betPARX🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.05%EV -6.46%E -2.75%K -4.78%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 59.95%EV -5.49%E -3.50%K -9.64%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-02 16:30
BetRivers🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.05%EV -6.46%E -2.75%K -4.78%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 59.95%EV -5.49%E -3.50%K -9.64%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-02 16:30
Fanatics🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.05%EV -6.46%E -2.75%K -4.78%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 59.95%EV -5.49%E -3.50%K -9.64%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-02 16:35
Unibet (SE)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.05%EV -6.46%E -2.75%K -4.78%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 59.95%EV -5.49%E -3.50%K -9.64%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-02 16:30
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.05%EV -6.46%E -2.75%K -4.78%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 59.95%EV -5.49%E -3.50%K -9.64%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-02 16:30
GTbets🎯2.34I 42.74%NM 40.61%EV -6.86%E -2.93%K -5.12%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 59.39%EV -3.69%E -2.30%K -6.15%G +0.000%5.2%2026-09-01 22:31
DraftKings🎯2.34I 42.74%NM 40.46%EV -6.86%E -2.93%K -5.12%G +0.000%1.59I 62.89%NM 59.54%EV -4.29%E -2.70%K -7.27%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-02 02:20
betano_uk🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.03%EV -8.45%E -3.67%K -6.50%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 58.97%EV -3.69%E -2.30%K -6.15%G +0.000%6.0%2026-09-02 16:40
Caesars🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.87%EV -8.45%E -3.67%K -6.50%G +0.000%1.59I 62.89%NM 59.13%EV -4.29%E -2.70%K -7.27%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-01 14:50
Fliff🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.57%EV -8.45%E -3.67%K -6.50%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 59.43%EV -5.49%E -3.50%K -9.64%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-02 16:40
PMU (FR)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.41%EV -8.45%E -3.67%K -6.50%G +0.000%1.56I 64.10%NM 59.59%EV -6.09%E -3.91%K -10.88%G +0.000%7.6%2026-09-02 16:30
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.86%EV -10.44%E -4.64%K -8.35%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%EV -2.48%E -1.53%K -4.01%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-02 05:25
1xBet🎯2.24I 44.64%NM 42.56%EV -10.84%E -4.84%K -8.74%G +0.000%1.66I 60.24%NM 57.44%EV -0.075%E -0.045%K -0.114%G +0.000%4.9%2026-09-02 16:40
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (8)

CorredorLocalVisitanteMargen ▲Actualizado
Matchbook◎2.52I 39.68%NM 39.57%1.65I 60.61%NM 60.43%0.3%2026-09-02 16:40
ProphetX◎2.52I 39.68%NM 39.57%1.65I 60.61%NM 60.43%0.3%2026-09-02 16:40
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.52I 39.68%NM 39.42%1.64I 60.98%NM 60.58%0.7%2026-09-02 16:41
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.52I 39.68%NM 39.42%1.64I 60.98%NM 60.58%0.7%2026-09-02 16:40
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.52I 39.68%NM 39.42%1.64I 60.98%NM 60.58%0.7%2026-09-02 16:40
Kalshi◎2.56I 39.06%NM 38.61%1.61I 62.11%NM 61.39%1.2%2026-09-02 16:26
Novig◎2.53I 39.53%NM 38.89%1.61I 62.11%NM 61.11%1.6%2026-09-02 16:40
Smarkets◎2.46I 40.65%NM 39.71%1.62I 61.73%NM 60.29%2.4%2026-09-02 16:40