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Luciano Darderi v Dane Sweeny
Коэффициенты закрытия — вероятности и ожидаемая ценность, рассчитанные выбранной моделью по последним коэффициентам, зарегистрированным до начала матча. Матч уже начался, поэтому это не текущие показатели. Оценить надёжность вероятностных прогнозов каждой модели по результатам всех завершённых матчей →
Победитель встречи
Luciano Darderi (Хозяева)
Прогноз 75.10%1.33справедливый коэффициент
EV -2.37%
Преимущество -1.82%
Kelly -7.90%
Рост +0.000%
при максимальном коэффициенте 1.30
Распределение прогнозов букмекерских контор
73.62%75.33%75.00%82.43%МИН.СРЕДНЕЕМЕДИАНАМАКС.
Распределение коэффициентов
1.141.261.261.3087.72%79.68%79.37%76.92%МИН.СРЕДНЕЕМЕДИАНАМАКС.
Dane Sweeny (Гости)
Прогноз 24.90%4.02справедливый коэффициент
EV +33.21%
Преимущество +6.21%
Kelly +7.63%
Рост +2.54%
при максимальном коэффициенте 5.35
Распределение прогнозов букмекерских контор
17.57%24.67%25.00%26.38%МИН.СРЕДНЕЕМЕДИАНАМАКС.
Распределение коэффициентов
3.453.843.805.3528.99%26.03%26.32%18.69%МИН.СРЕДНЕЕМЕДИАНАМАКС.
По последним коэффициентам перед началом модель Межквартильное среднее (Отобранный список) оценивала рынок «Победитель встречи» так: Luciano Darderi (Хозяева): 75.10%; Dane Sweeny (Гости): 24.90%. Для исхода «Dane Sweeny (Гости)» эта оценка соответствовала справедливому десятичному коэффициенту 4.02. 5 букмекеров предлагали итоговые коэффициенты выше этого уровня; лучший составлял 5.35, что соответствовало положительному математическому ожиданию +33.21%.
Коэффициенты букмекерских контор (63 букмекерские конторы)
Мы не связаны ни с одной букмекерской конторой и ничего не зарабатываем на действиях, совершаемых у них.
| Букмекерская контора | Хозяева | Гости ▼ | Маржа | Обновлено |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fliff🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 82.43%EV -14.38%E -12.62%K -102.75%G +0.000% | 5.35I 18.69%NM 17.57%EV +33.21%E +6.21%K +7.63%G +2.54% | 6.4% | 2026-09-03 23:02 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.23I 81.30%NM 78.19%EV -7.63%E -6.20%K -33.16%G +0.000% | 4.41I 22.68%NM 21.81%EV +9.80%E +2.22%K +2.88%G +0.282% | 4.0% | 2026-09-04 09:24 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.21I 82.64%NM 78.24%EV -9.13%E -7.54%K -43.47%G +0.000% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 21.76%EV +8.31%E +1.91%K +2.48%G +0.206% | 5.6% | 2026-09-04 09:20 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 78.02%EV -8.38%E -6.87%K -38.08%G +0.000% | 4.33I 23.09%NM 21.98%EV +7.81%E +1.80%K +2.35%G +0.183% | 5.1% | 2026-09-04 13:50 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.07%EV -8.38%E -6.87%K -38.08%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.93%EV +2.09%E +0.509%K +0.673%G +0.014% | 6.4% | 2026-09-04 12:30 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.28I 78.13%NM 75.76%EV -3.87%E -3.02%K -13.82%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 24.24%EV -0.404%E -0.101%K -0.135%G +0.000% | 3.1% | 2026-09-04 13:05 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 75.90%EV -4.62%E -3.64%K -17.12%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 24.10%EV -0.404%E -0.101%K -0.135%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-09-04 13:05 |
| GTbets🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 76.49%EV -8.38%E -6.87%K -38.08%G +0.000% | 3.97I 25.19%NM 23.51%EV -1.15%E -0.290%K -0.387%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-09-04 12:30 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 75.44%EV -4.62%E -3.64%K -17.12%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.56%EV -2.89%E -0.742%K -0.998%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-09-04 12:28 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.26I 79.37%NM 75.58%EV -5.37%E -4.26%K -20.66%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.42%EV -2.89%E -0.742%K -0.998%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-09-04 13:05 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.26I 79.37%NM 75.58%EV -5.37%E -4.26%K -20.66%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.42%EV -2.89%E -0.742%K -0.998%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-09-04 13:04 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.26I 79.37%NM 75.58%EV -5.37%E -4.26%K -20.66%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.42%EV -2.89%E -0.742%K -0.998%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-09-04 13:04 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.26I 79.37%NM 75.58%EV -5.37%E -4.26%K -20.66%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.42%EV -2.89%E -0.742%K -0.998%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-09-04 13:04 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.26I 79.37%NM 75.58%EV -5.37%E -4.26%K -20.66%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.42%EV -2.89%E -0.742%K -0.998%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-09-04 13:05 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.26I 79.37%NM 75.58%EV -5.37%E -4.26%K -20.66%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.42%EV -2.89%E -0.742%K -0.998%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-09-04 13:04 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.26I 79.37%NM 75.58%EV -5.37%E -4.26%K -20.66%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.42%EV -2.89%E -0.742%K -0.998%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-09-04 13:05 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.26I 79.37%NM 75.58%EV -5.37%E -4.26%K -20.66%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.42%EV -2.89%E -0.742%K -0.998%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-09-04 13:05 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.26I 79.37%NM 75.58%EV -5.37%E -4.26%K -20.66%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.42%EV -2.89%E -0.742%K -0.998%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-09-04 13:04 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.26I 79.37%NM 75.58%EV -5.37%E -4.26%K -20.66%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.42%EV -2.89%E -0.742%K -0.998%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-09-04 13:04 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.26I 79.37%NM 75.58%EV -5.37%E -4.26%K -20.66%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.42%EV -2.89%E -0.742%K -0.998%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-09-04 13:04 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.26I 79.37%NM 75.58%EV -5.37%E -4.26%K -20.66%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.42%EV -2.89%E -0.742%K -0.998%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-09-04 13:05 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.26I 79.37%NM 75.58%EV -5.37%E -4.26%K -20.66%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.42%EV -2.89%E -0.742%K -0.998%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-09-04 13:04 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.26I 79.37%NM 75.58%EV -5.37%E -4.26%K -20.66%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.42%EV -2.89%E -0.742%K -0.998%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-09-04 13:04 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.73%EV -6.12%E -4.90%K -24.50%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.27%EV -2.89%E -0.742%K -0.998%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-09-04 12:39 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.73%EV -6.12%E -4.90%K -24.50%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.27%EV -2.89%E -0.742%K -0.998%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-09-04 13:55 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.28I 78.13%NM 75.15%EV -3.87%E -3.02%K -13.82%G +0.000% | 3.87I 25.84%NM 24.85%EV -3.64%E -0.941%K -1.27%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-09-04 12:25 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.28I 78.13%NM 75.15%EV -3.87%E -3.02%K -13.82%G +0.000% | 3.87I 25.84%NM 24.85%EV -3.64%E -0.941%K -1.27%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-09-04 12:25 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 74.81%EV -2.37%E -1.82%K -7.90%G +0.000% | 3.86I 25.91%NM 25.19%EV -3.89%E -1.01%K -1.36%G +0.000% | 2.8% | 2026-09-04 12:30 |
| MyBookie.ag🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.49%EV -6.12%E -4.90%K -24.50%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.51%EV -4.14%E -1.07%K -1.45%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-09-04 13:55 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.39%EV -6.12%E -4.90%K -24.50%G +0.000% | 3.83I 26.11%NM 24.61%EV -4.64%E -1.21%K -1.64%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-09-04 13:55 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.39%EV -6.12%E -4.90%K -24.50%G +0.000% | 3.83I 26.11%NM 24.61%EV -4.64%E -1.21%K -1.64%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-09-04 13:55 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 74.66%EV -3.12%E -2.42%K -10.76%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 25.34%EV -5.38%E -1.42%K -1.92%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-09-04 14:35 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.25%EV -6.12%E -4.90%K -24.50%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.75%EV -5.38%E -1.42%K -1.92%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-09-04 13:55 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.24I 80.65%NM 75.40%EV -6.87%E -5.54%K -28.65%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.60%EV -5.38%E -1.42%K -1.92%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-09-04 12:29 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.23I 81.30%NM 75.55%EV -7.63%E -6.20%K -33.16%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.45%EV -5.38%E -1.42%K -1.92%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-09-04 13:04 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 76.00%EV -9.88%E -8.23%K -49.39%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.00%EV -5.38%E -1.42%K -1.92%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-09-04 14:35 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 74.40%EV -3.12%E -2.42%K -10.76%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.60%EV -6.63%E -1.77%K -2.41%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-09-04 12:25 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.70%EV -4.62%E -3.64%K -17.12%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.30%EV -6.63%E -1.77%K -2.41%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-09-04 12:35 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.26I 79.37%NM 74.85%EV -5.37%E -4.26%K -20.66%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.15%EV -6.63%E -1.77%K -2.41%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-09-04 13:55 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.26I 79.37%NM 74.85%EV -5.37%E -4.26%K -20.66%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.15%EV -6.63%E -1.77%K -2.41%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-09-04 14:35 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.00%EV -6.12%E -4.90%K -24.50%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.00%EV -6.63%E -1.77%K -2.41%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-09-04 13:55 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.00%EV -6.12%E -4.90%K -24.50%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.00%EV -6.63%E -1.77%K -2.41%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-09-04 12:25 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.00%EV -6.12%E -4.90%K -24.50%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.00%EV -6.63%E -1.77%K -2.41%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-09-04 12:34 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.00%EV -6.12%E -4.90%K -24.50%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.00%EV -6.63%E -1.77%K -2.41%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-09-04 14:35 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.00%EV -6.12%E -4.90%K -24.50%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.00%EV -6.63%E -1.77%K -2.41%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-09-04 12:24 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.00%EV -6.12%E -4.90%K -24.50%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.00%EV -6.63%E -1.77%K -2.41%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-09-04 12:25 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.55%EV -4.62%E -3.64%K -17.12%G +0.000% | 3.72I 26.88%NM 25.45%EV -7.38%E -1.98%K -2.71%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-09-04 12:25 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.28I 78.13%NM 74.30%EV -3.87%E -3.02%K -13.82%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.70%EV -7.87%E -2.13%K -2.92%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-09-04 12:35 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.28I 78.13%NM 74.30%EV -3.87%E -3.02%K -13.82%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.70%EV -7.87%E -2.13%K -2.92%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-09-04 12:35 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.45%EV -4.62%E -3.64%K -17.12%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.55%EV -7.87%E -2.13%K -2.92%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-09-04 14:31 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 74.75%EV -6.12%E -4.90%K -24.50%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.25%EV -7.87%E -2.13%K -2.92%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-09-04 12:35 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 74.75%EV -6.12%E -4.90%K -24.50%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.25%EV -7.87%E -2.13%K -2.92%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-09-04 12:35 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.62%EV -3.12%E -2.42%K -10.76%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.38%EV -10.36%E -2.88%K -3.99%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-09-04 12:29 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.62%EV -3.12%E -2.42%K -10.76%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.38%EV -10.36%E -2.88%K -3.99%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-09-04 12:25 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.62%EV -3.12%E -2.42%K -10.76%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.38%EV -10.36%E -2.88%K -3.99%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-09-04 12:25 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.62%EV -3.12%E -2.42%K -10.76%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.38%EV -10.36%E -2.88%K -3.99%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-09-04 12:25 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.28I 78.13%NM 73.77%EV -3.87%E -3.02%K -13.82%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.23%EV -10.36%E -2.88%K -3.99%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-09-04 12:25 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.26I 79.37%NM 74.07%EV -5.37%E -4.26%K -20.66%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.93%EV -10.36%E -2.88%K -3.99%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-09-04 12:25 |
| Caesars🎯 | 1.26I 79.37%NM 74.07%EV -5.37%E -4.26%K -20.66%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.93%EV -10.36%E -2.88%K -3.99%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-09-04 13:53 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.24I 80.65%NM 74.38%EV -6.87%E -5.54%K -28.65%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.62%EV -10.36%E -2.88%K -3.99%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-09-04 13:55 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.23I 81.30%NM 74.27%EV -7.63%E -6.20%K -33.16%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 25.73%EV -11.61%E -3.27%K -4.55%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-09-04 13:50 |
| ReBet🎯 | 1.23I 81.30%NM 74.27%EV -7.63%E -6.20%K -33.16%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 25.73%EV -11.61%E -3.27%K -4.55%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-09-04 13:55 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.21I 82.64%NM 74.03%EV -9.13%E -7.54%K -43.47%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 25.97%EV -14.10%E -4.09%K -5.75%G +0.000% | 11.6% | 2026-09-04 13:55 |
Маржа = Маржа · I = Подразумеваемая вероятность · NM = Вероятность без маржи · EV = Ожидаемая ценность · E = Преимущество · K = Критерий Келли · G = Рост капитала
Обновлено — время последнего изменения коэффициента каждой букмекерской конторой. Более раннее время означает лишь, что коэффициент не менялся, а не что он устарел. Конторы, от которых около 15 минут не поступали данные, обычно исключаются; последние зарегистрированные коэффициенты показываются только тогда, когда перестаёт обновляться весь поток данных по рынку.
Биржи ставок (8)
| Букмекерская контора | Хозяева | Гости | Маржа ▲ | Обновлено |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matchbook◎ | 1.32I 75.76%NM 75.19% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 24.81% | 0.8% | 2026-09-04 14:35 |
| Novig◎ | 1.32I 75.76%NM 75.19% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 24.81% | 0.8% | 2026-09-04 14:35 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.31I 76.34%NM 75.33% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 24.67% | 1.3% | 2026-09-04 13:10 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.31I 76.34%NM 75.33% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 24.67% | 1.3% | 2026-09-04 14:25 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.31I 76.34%NM 75.33% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 24.67% | 1.3% | 2026-09-04 13:10 |
| ProphetX◎ | 1.32I 75.76%NM 74.71% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 25.29% | 1.4% | 2026-09-04 14:35 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.30I 76.92%NM 75.24% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 24.76% | 2.2% | 2026-09-04 14:20 |
| Kalshi◎ | 1.23I 81.30%NM 78.72% | 4.55I 21.98%NM 21.28% | 3.3% | 2026-09-04 04:00 |