Langue:Français
Luciano Darderi v Dane Sweeny
Cotes de clôture — probabilités calculées et espérance mathématique obtenues, selon le modèle sélectionné, à partir des derniers prix enregistrés avant le coup d’envoi. Le match ayant commencé, il ne s’agit pas de valeurs en direct. Évaluer la fiabilité des prévisions probabilistes de chaque modèle sur l’ensemble des matchs réglés →
Résultat du match
Luciano Darderi (Local)
Prévision 75.10%1.33cote équitable
EV -2.37%
Avantage -1.82%
Kelly -7.90%
Croissance +0.000%
avec la cote maximale 1.30
Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
73.62%75.33%75.00%82.43%MIN.MOYENNEMÉDIANEMAX.
Distribution des cotes
1.141.261.261.3087.72%79.68%79.37%76.92%MIN.MOYENNEMÉDIANEMAX.
Dane Sweeny (Visiteur)
Prévision 24.90%4.02cote équitable
EV +33.21%
Avantage +6.21%
Kelly +7.63%
Croissance +2.54%
avec la cote maximale 5.35
Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
17.57%24.67%25.00%26.38%MIN.MOYENNEMÉDIANEMAX.
Distribution des cotes
3.453.843.805.3528.99%26.03%26.32%18.69%MIN.MOYENNEMÉDIANEMAX.
Aux dernières cotes avant le début, Moyenne interquartile (Liste Sélectionnée) estimait pour Résultat du match : Luciano Darderi (Local) : 75.10% ; Dane Sweeny (Visiteur) : 24.90%. Pour Dane Sweeny (Visiteur), cette estimation équivalait à une cote décimale juste de 4.02. 5 opérateurs proposaient une cote de clôture supérieure à ce seuil ; la meilleure était 5.35, soit une espérance positive de +33.21%.
Cotes des opérateurs (63 opérateurs)
Nous ne sommes affiliés à aucun opérateur de paris et ne tirons aucun bénéfice des opérations réalisées auprès d’eux.
| Opérateur | Local | Visiteur ▼ | Marge | Mise à jour |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fliff🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 82.43%EV -14.38%E -12.62%K -102.75%G +0.000% | 5.35I 18.69%NM 17.57%EV +33.21%E +6.21%K +7.63%G +2.54% | 6.4% | 2026-09-03 23:02 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.23I 81.30%NM 78.19%EV -7.63%E -6.20%K -33.16%G +0.000% | 4.41I 22.68%NM 21.81%EV +9.80%E +2.22%K +2.88%G +0.282% | 4.0% | 2026-09-04 09:24 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.21I 82.64%NM 78.24%EV -9.13%E -7.54%K -43.47%G +0.000% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 21.76%EV +8.31%E +1.91%K +2.48%G +0.206% | 5.6% | 2026-09-04 09:20 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 78.02%EV -8.38%E -6.87%K -38.08%G +0.000% | 4.33I 23.09%NM 21.98%EV +7.81%E +1.80%K +2.35%G +0.183% | 5.1% | 2026-09-04 13:50 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.07%EV -8.38%E -6.87%K -38.08%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.93%EV +2.09%E +0.509%K +0.673%G +0.014% | 6.4% | 2026-09-04 12:30 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.28I 78.13%NM 75.76%EV -3.87%E -3.02%K -13.82%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 24.24%EV -0.404%E -0.101%K -0.135%G +0.000% | 3.1% | 2026-09-04 13:05 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 75.90%EV -4.62%E -3.64%K -17.12%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 24.10%EV -0.404%E -0.101%K -0.135%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-09-04 13:05 |
| GTbets🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 76.49%EV -8.38%E -6.87%K -38.08%G +0.000% | 3.97I 25.19%NM 23.51%EV -1.15%E -0.290%K -0.387%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-09-04 12:30 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 75.44%EV -4.62%E -3.64%K -17.12%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.56%EV -2.89%E -0.742%K -0.998%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-09-04 12:28 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.26I 79.37%NM 75.58%EV -5.37%E -4.26%K -20.66%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.42%EV -2.89%E -0.742%K -0.998%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-09-04 13:05 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.26I 79.37%NM 75.58%EV -5.37%E -4.26%K -20.66%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.42%EV -2.89%E -0.742%K -0.998%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-09-04 13:04 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.26I 79.37%NM 75.58%EV -5.37%E -4.26%K -20.66%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.42%EV -2.89%E -0.742%K -0.998%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-09-04 13:04 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.26I 79.37%NM 75.58%EV -5.37%E -4.26%K -20.66%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.42%EV -2.89%E -0.742%K -0.998%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-09-04 13:04 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.26I 79.37%NM 75.58%EV -5.37%E -4.26%K -20.66%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.42%EV -2.89%E -0.742%K -0.998%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-09-04 13:05 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.26I 79.37%NM 75.58%EV -5.37%E -4.26%K -20.66%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.42%EV -2.89%E -0.742%K -0.998%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-09-04 13:04 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.26I 79.37%NM 75.58%EV -5.37%E -4.26%K -20.66%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.42%EV -2.89%E -0.742%K -0.998%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-09-04 13:05 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.26I 79.37%NM 75.58%EV -5.37%E -4.26%K -20.66%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.42%EV -2.89%E -0.742%K -0.998%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-09-04 13:05 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.26I 79.37%NM 75.58%EV -5.37%E -4.26%K -20.66%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.42%EV -2.89%E -0.742%K -0.998%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-09-04 13:04 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.26I 79.37%NM 75.58%EV -5.37%E -4.26%K -20.66%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.42%EV -2.89%E -0.742%K -0.998%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-09-04 13:04 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.26I 79.37%NM 75.58%EV -5.37%E -4.26%K -20.66%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.42%EV -2.89%E -0.742%K -0.998%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-09-04 13:04 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.26I 79.37%NM 75.58%EV -5.37%E -4.26%K -20.66%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.42%EV -2.89%E -0.742%K -0.998%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-09-04 13:05 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.26I 79.37%NM 75.58%EV -5.37%E -4.26%K -20.66%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.42%EV -2.89%E -0.742%K -0.998%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-09-04 13:04 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.26I 79.37%NM 75.58%EV -5.37%E -4.26%K -20.66%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.42%EV -2.89%E -0.742%K -0.998%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-09-04 13:04 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.73%EV -6.12%E -4.90%K -24.50%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.27%EV -2.89%E -0.742%K -0.998%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-09-04 12:39 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.73%EV -6.12%E -4.90%K -24.50%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.27%EV -2.89%E -0.742%K -0.998%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-09-04 13:55 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.28I 78.13%NM 75.15%EV -3.87%E -3.02%K -13.82%G +0.000% | 3.87I 25.84%NM 24.85%EV -3.64%E -0.941%K -1.27%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-09-04 12:25 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.28I 78.13%NM 75.15%EV -3.87%E -3.02%K -13.82%G +0.000% | 3.87I 25.84%NM 24.85%EV -3.64%E -0.941%K -1.27%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-09-04 12:25 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 74.81%EV -2.37%E -1.82%K -7.90%G +0.000% | 3.86I 25.91%NM 25.19%EV -3.89%E -1.01%K -1.36%G +0.000% | 2.8% | 2026-09-04 12:30 |
| MyBookie.ag🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.49%EV -6.12%E -4.90%K -24.50%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.51%EV -4.14%E -1.07%K -1.45%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-09-04 13:55 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.39%EV -6.12%E -4.90%K -24.50%G +0.000% | 3.83I 26.11%NM 24.61%EV -4.64%E -1.21%K -1.64%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-09-04 13:55 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.39%EV -6.12%E -4.90%K -24.50%G +0.000% | 3.83I 26.11%NM 24.61%EV -4.64%E -1.21%K -1.64%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-09-04 13:55 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 74.66%EV -3.12%E -2.42%K -10.76%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 25.34%EV -5.38%E -1.42%K -1.92%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-09-04 14:35 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.25%EV -6.12%E -4.90%K -24.50%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.75%EV -5.38%E -1.42%K -1.92%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-09-04 13:55 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.24I 80.65%NM 75.40%EV -6.87%E -5.54%K -28.65%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.60%EV -5.38%E -1.42%K -1.92%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-09-04 12:29 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.23I 81.30%NM 75.55%EV -7.63%E -6.20%K -33.16%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.45%EV -5.38%E -1.42%K -1.92%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-09-04 13:04 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 76.00%EV -9.88%E -8.23%K -49.39%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.00%EV -5.38%E -1.42%K -1.92%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-09-04 14:35 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 74.40%EV -3.12%E -2.42%K -10.76%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.60%EV -6.63%E -1.77%K -2.41%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-09-04 12:25 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.70%EV -4.62%E -3.64%K -17.12%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.30%EV -6.63%E -1.77%K -2.41%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-09-04 12:35 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.26I 79.37%NM 74.85%EV -5.37%E -4.26%K -20.66%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.15%EV -6.63%E -1.77%K -2.41%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-09-04 13:55 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.26I 79.37%NM 74.85%EV -5.37%E -4.26%K -20.66%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.15%EV -6.63%E -1.77%K -2.41%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-09-04 14:35 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.00%EV -6.12%E -4.90%K -24.50%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.00%EV -6.63%E -1.77%K -2.41%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-09-04 13:55 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.00%EV -6.12%E -4.90%K -24.50%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.00%EV -6.63%E -1.77%K -2.41%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-09-04 12:25 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.00%EV -6.12%E -4.90%K -24.50%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.00%EV -6.63%E -1.77%K -2.41%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-09-04 12:34 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.00%EV -6.12%E -4.90%K -24.50%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.00%EV -6.63%E -1.77%K -2.41%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-09-04 14:35 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.00%EV -6.12%E -4.90%K -24.50%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.00%EV -6.63%E -1.77%K -2.41%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-09-04 12:24 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.00%EV -6.12%E -4.90%K -24.50%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.00%EV -6.63%E -1.77%K -2.41%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-09-04 12:25 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.55%EV -4.62%E -3.64%K -17.12%G +0.000% | 3.72I 26.88%NM 25.45%EV -7.38%E -1.98%K -2.71%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-09-04 12:25 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.28I 78.13%NM 74.30%EV -3.87%E -3.02%K -13.82%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.70%EV -7.87%E -2.13%K -2.92%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-09-04 12:35 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.28I 78.13%NM 74.30%EV -3.87%E -3.02%K -13.82%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.70%EV -7.87%E -2.13%K -2.92%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-09-04 12:35 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.45%EV -4.62%E -3.64%K -17.12%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.55%EV -7.87%E -2.13%K -2.92%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-09-04 14:31 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 74.75%EV -6.12%E -4.90%K -24.50%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.25%EV -7.87%E -2.13%K -2.92%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-09-04 12:35 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 74.75%EV -6.12%E -4.90%K -24.50%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.25%EV -7.87%E -2.13%K -2.92%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-09-04 12:35 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.62%EV -3.12%E -2.42%K -10.76%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.38%EV -10.36%E -2.88%K -3.99%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-09-04 12:29 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.62%EV -3.12%E -2.42%K -10.76%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.38%EV -10.36%E -2.88%K -3.99%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-09-04 12:25 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.62%EV -3.12%E -2.42%K -10.76%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.38%EV -10.36%E -2.88%K -3.99%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-09-04 12:25 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.62%EV -3.12%E -2.42%K -10.76%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.38%EV -10.36%E -2.88%K -3.99%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-09-04 12:25 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.28I 78.13%NM 73.77%EV -3.87%E -3.02%K -13.82%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.23%EV -10.36%E -2.88%K -3.99%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-09-04 12:25 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.26I 79.37%NM 74.07%EV -5.37%E -4.26%K -20.66%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.93%EV -10.36%E -2.88%K -3.99%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-09-04 12:25 |
| Caesars🎯 | 1.26I 79.37%NM 74.07%EV -5.37%E -4.26%K -20.66%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.93%EV -10.36%E -2.88%K -3.99%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-09-04 13:53 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.24I 80.65%NM 74.38%EV -6.87%E -5.54%K -28.65%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.62%EV -10.36%E -2.88%K -3.99%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-09-04 13:55 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.23I 81.30%NM 74.27%EV -7.63%E -6.20%K -33.16%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 25.73%EV -11.61%E -3.27%K -4.55%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-09-04 13:50 |
| ReBet🎯 | 1.23I 81.30%NM 74.27%EV -7.63%E -6.20%K -33.16%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 25.73%EV -11.61%E -3.27%K -4.55%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-09-04 13:55 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.21I 82.64%NM 74.03%EV -9.13%E -7.54%K -43.47%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 25.97%EV -14.10%E -4.09%K -5.75%G +0.000% | 11.6% | 2026-09-04 13:55 |
Marge = Marge · I = Probabilité implicite · NM = Probabilité sans marge · EV = Espérance mathématique · E = Avantage · K = Critère de Kelly · G = Croissance du capital de jeu
Mise à jour indique le dernier changement de prix de chaque opérateur. Une heure ancienne signifie donc seulement que la cote n’a pas bougé, et non qu’elle est périmée. Les opérateurs absents du flux depuis environ 15 minutes sont normalement écartés ; les derniers prix enregistrés ne sont conservés que si le flux de tout le marché devient silencieux.
Plateformes d’échange (8)
| Opérateur | Local | Visiteur | Marge ▲ | Mise à jour |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matchbook◎ | 1.32I 75.76%NM 75.19% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 24.81% | 0.8% | 2026-09-04 14:35 |
| Novig◎ | 1.32I 75.76%NM 75.19% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 24.81% | 0.8% | 2026-09-04 14:35 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.31I 76.34%NM 75.33% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 24.67% | 1.3% | 2026-09-04 13:10 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.31I 76.34%NM 75.33% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 24.67% | 1.3% | 2026-09-04 14:25 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.31I 76.34%NM 75.33% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 24.67% | 1.3% | 2026-09-04 13:10 |
| ProphetX◎ | 1.32I 75.76%NM 74.71% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 25.29% | 1.4% | 2026-09-04 14:35 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.30I 76.92%NM 75.24% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 24.76% | 2.2% | 2026-09-04 14:20 |
| Kalshi◎ | 1.23I 81.30%NM 78.72% | 4.55I 21.98%NM 21.28% | 3.3% | 2026-09-04 04:00 |