Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Jaume Munar v Arthur Rinderknech

Inicio: 2026-09-02 15:05 UTC

Final: Jaume Munar 0–3 Arthur Rinderknech

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

65 corredores (21 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Jaume Munar (Local)

Predicción 40.56%2.47momio equitativo
EV -0.214%
Ventaja -0.087%
Kelly -0.147%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.46

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
38.96%40.52%40.51%43.78%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.172.322.302.4646.08%43.05%43.48%40.65%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Arthur Rinderknech (Visitante)

Predicción 59.44%1.68momio equitativo
EV +0.448%
Ventaja +0.265%
Kelly +0.649%
Crecimiento +0.003%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.69

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
56.22%59.48%59.49%61.04%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.551.601.611.6964.52%62.35%62.11%59.17%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Con la última cotización anterior al inicio, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estimó estas probabilidades para Resultado del partido: Jaume Munar (Local): 40.56%; Arthur Rinderknech (Visitante): 59.44%. Para Arthur Rinderknech (Visitante), esa estimación equivalía a momios decimales justos de 1.68. 1 corredor ofreció momios de cierre superiores a ese nivel; los mejores fueron 1.69, correspondientes a un valor esperado positivo de +0.448%.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (65 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitante ▼MargenActualizado
SportsBet🎯2.17I 46.08%NM 43.78%EV -11.98%E -5.52%K -10.24%G +0.000%1.69I 59.17%NM 56.22%EV +0.448%E +0.265%K +0.649%G +0.003%5.3%2026-09-02 14:55
BetOnline.ag🎯2.36I 42.37%NM 41.00%EV -4.27%E -1.81%K -3.14%G +0.000%1.64I 60.98%NM 59.00%EV -2.52%E -1.54%K -3.94%G +0.000%3.3%2026-09-02 14:40
LowVig.ag🎯2.36I 42.37%NM 41.00%EV -4.27%E -1.81%K -3.14%G +0.000%1.64I 60.98%NM 59.00%EV -2.52%E -1.54%K -3.94%G +0.000%3.3%2026-09-02 14:40
BetAnything🎯2.36I 42.37%NM 41.00%EV -4.27%E -1.81%K -3.14%G +0.000%1.64I 60.98%NM 59.00%EV -2.52%E -1.54%K -3.94%G +0.000%3.3%2026-09-02 14:40
Pinnacle🎯2.43I 41.15%NM 40.15%EV -1.43%E -0.589%K -1.00%G +0.000%1.63I 61.35%NM 59.85%EV -3.12%E -1.91%K -4.95%G +0.000%2.5%2026-09-02 14:35
Coolbet🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 40.45%EV -2.65%E -1.10%K -1.89%G +0.000%1.63I 61.35%NM 59.55%EV -3.12%E -1.91%K -4.95%G +0.000%3.0%2026-09-02 14:00
Winamax (DE)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 40.30%EV -2.65%E -1.10%K -1.89%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 59.70%EV -3.71%E -2.29%K -5.99%G +0.000%3.4%2026-09-02 13:55
ReBet🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 40.50%EV -3.46%E -1.45%K -2.51%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 59.50%EV -3.71%E -2.29%K -5.99%G +0.000%3.7%2026-09-02 13:55
Betclic (FR)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.81%EV -4.68%E -1.99%K -3.46%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 59.19%EV -3.71%E -2.29%K -5.99%G +0.000%4.3%2026-09-02 14:49
1xBet🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.81%EV -4.68%E -1.99%K -3.46%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 59.19%EV -3.71%E -2.29%K -5.99%G +0.000%4.3%2026-09-02 14:55
Hard Rock Bet🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -6.70%E -2.91%K -5.16%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -3.71%E -2.29%K -5.99%G +0.000%5.2%2026-09-02 13:55
William Hill🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -6.70%E -2.91%K -5.16%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -3.71%E -2.29%K -5.99%G +0.000%5.2%2026-09-02 12:55
BetRivers🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 41.54%EV -7.52%E -3.30%K -5.87%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 58.46%EV -3.71%E -2.29%K -5.99%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-02 13:55
Grosvenor🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 41.54%EV -7.52%E -3.30%K -5.87%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 58.46%EV -3.71%E -2.29%K -5.99%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-02 13:55
Casumo🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 41.54%EV -7.52%E -3.30%K -5.87%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 58.46%EV -3.71%E -2.29%K -5.99%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-02 13:55
TABtouch🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 41.54%EV -7.52%E -3.30%K -5.87%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 58.46%EV -3.71%E -2.29%K -5.99%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-02 13:55
Unibet (NL)🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 41.54%EV -7.52%E -3.30%K -5.87%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 58.46%EV -3.71%E -2.29%K -5.99%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-02 13:55
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 41.54%EV -7.52%E -3.30%K -5.87%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 58.46%EV -3.71%E -2.29%K -5.99%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-02 13:55
Virgin Bet🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 41.54%EV -7.52%E -3.30%K -5.87%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 58.46%EV -3.71%E -2.29%K -5.99%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-02 13:55
Unibet (SE)🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 41.54%EV -7.52%E -3.30%K -5.87%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 58.46%EV -3.71%E -2.29%K -5.99%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-02 13:55
LiveScore Bet🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 41.54%EV -7.52%E -3.30%K -5.87%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 58.46%EV -3.71%E -2.29%K -5.99%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-02 13:55
Unibet🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 41.54%EV -7.52%E -3.30%K -5.87%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 58.46%EV -3.71%E -2.29%K -5.99%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-02 13:55
Bally Bet🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 41.54%EV -7.52%E -3.30%K -5.87%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 58.46%EV -3.71%E -2.29%K -5.99%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-02 13:55
Svenska Spel🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 41.54%EV -7.52%E -3.30%K -5.87%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 58.46%EV -3.71%E -2.29%K -5.99%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-02 13:55
betPARX🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 41.54%EV -7.52%E -3.30%K -5.87%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 58.46%EV -3.71%E -2.29%K -5.99%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-02 13:55
ATG (SE)🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 41.54%EV -7.52%E -3.30%K -5.87%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 58.46%EV -3.71%E -2.29%K -5.99%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-02 13:55
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.86%EV -8.73%E -3.88%K -6.99%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%EV -3.71%E -2.29%K -5.99%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-02 14:55
theScore Bet🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.66%EV -4.68%E -1.99%K -3.46%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 59.34%EV -4.31%E -2.68%K -7.06%G +0.000%4.7%2026-09-02 13:55
Bovada🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.66%EV -4.68%E -1.99%K -3.46%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 59.34%EV -4.31%E -2.68%K -7.06%G +0.000%4.7%2026-09-02 14:00
DraftKings🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.18%EV -6.70%E -2.91%K -5.16%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 58.82%EV -4.31%E -2.68%K -7.06%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-02 14:05
888sport🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.18%EV -6.70%E -2.91%K -5.16%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 58.82%EV -4.31%E -2.68%K -7.06%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-02 12:55
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.18%EV -6.70%E -2.91%K -5.16%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 58.82%EV -4.31%E -2.68%K -7.06%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-02 12:55
888sport (SE)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.18%EV -6.70%E -2.91%K -5.16%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 58.82%EV -4.31%E -2.68%K -7.06%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-02 12:55
Betway🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 40.00%EV -2.65%E -1.10%K -1.89%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 60.00%EV -4.90%E -3.06%K -8.17%G +0.000%4.2%2026-09-02 13:15
Unibet (FR)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 40.00%EV -2.65%E -1.10%K -1.89%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 60.00%EV -4.90%E -3.06%K -8.17%G +0.000%4.2%2026-09-02 13:55
BetUS🎯2.37I 42.19%NM 40.30%EV -3.86%E -1.63%K -2.82%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 59.70%EV -4.90%E -3.06%K -8.17%G +0.000%4.7%2026-09-02 14:15
Unibet (UK)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -4.68%E -1.99%K -3.46%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -4.90%E -3.06%K -8.17%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-02 13:55
MyBookie.ag🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -4.68%E -1.99%K -3.46%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -4.90%E -3.06%K -8.17%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-02 14:00
TAB🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -4.68%E -1.99%K -3.46%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -4.90%E -3.06%K -8.17%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-02 14:22
Winamax (FR)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -4.68%E -1.99%K -3.46%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -4.90%E -3.06%K -8.17%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-02 13:55
Neds🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -4.68%E -1.99%K -3.46%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -4.90%E -3.06%K -8.17%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-02 14:55
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -4.68%E -1.99%K -3.46%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -4.90%E -3.06%K -8.17%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-02 14:55
Marathon Bet🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 40.82%EV -5.89%E -2.54%K -4.46%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 59.18%EV -4.90%E -3.06%K -8.17%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-02 14:51
LeoVegas🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.03%EV -6.70%E -2.91%K -5.16%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 58.97%EV -4.90%E -3.06%K -8.17%G +0.000%6.0%2026-09-02 13:55
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.03%EV -6.70%E -2.91%K -5.16%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 58.97%EV -4.90%E -3.06%K -8.17%G +0.000%6.0%2026-09-02 14:50
PlayUp🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.03%EV -6.70%E -2.91%K -5.16%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 58.97%EV -4.90%E -3.06%K -8.17%G +0.000%6.0%2026-09-02 14:30
betano_uk🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.03%EV -6.70%E -2.91%K -5.16%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 58.97%EV -4.90%E -3.06%K -8.17%G +0.000%6.0%2026-09-02 14:14
Fanatics🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.87%EV -6.70%E -2.91%K -5.16%G +0.000%1.59I 62.89%NM 59.13%EV -5.50%E -3.46%K -9.32%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-02 14:51
Betr (AU)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.87%EV -6.70%E -2.91%K -5.16%G +0.000%1.59I 62.89%NM 59.13%EV -5.50%E -3.46%K -9.32%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-02 14:51
Caesars🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.87%EV -6.70%E -2.91%K -5.16%G +0.000%1.59I 62.89%NM 59.13%EV -5.50%E -3.46%K -9.32%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-02 14:01
NordicBet🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 40.51%EV -5.89%E -2.54%K -4.46%G +0.000%1.58I 63.29%NM 59.49%EV -6.09%E -3.85%K -10.50%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-02 13:55
Betsson🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 40.51%EV -5.89%E -2.54%K -4.46%G +0.000%1.58I 63.29%NM 59.49%EV -6.09%E -3.85%K -10.50%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-02 13:55
FanDuel🎯2.46I 40.65%NM 38.96%EV -0.214%E -0.087%K -0.147%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 61.04%EV -6.68%E -4.26%K -11.73%G +0.000%4.3%2026-09-02 14:15
betfred_uk🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -3.46%E -1.45%K -2.51%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -6.68%E -4.26%K -11.73%G +0.000%5.7%2026-09-02 14:20
BoyleSports🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -3.46%E -1.45%K -2.51%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -6.68%E -4.26%K -11.73%G +0.000%5.7%2026-09-01 07:55
Paddy Power🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -3.46%E -1.45%K -2.51%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -6.68%E -4.26%K -11.73%G +0.000%5.7%2026-09-02 14:55
Sky Bet🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -3.46%E -1.45%K -2.51%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -6.68%E -4.26%K -11.73%G +0.000%5.7%2026-09-02 14:15
Tipico (DE)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.05%EV -4.68%E -1.99%K -3.46%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 59.95%EV -6.68%E -4.26%K -11.73%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-02 13:55
BetMGM🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.05%EV -4.68%E -1.99%K -3.46%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 59.95%EV -6.68%E -4.26%K -11.73%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-02 14:54
NetBet (FR)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.05%EV -4.68%E -1.99%K -3.46%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 59.95%EV -6.68%E -4.26%K -11.73%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-02 14:30
Fliff🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.57%EV -6.70%E -2.91%K -5.16%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 59.43%EV -6.68%E -4.26%K -11.73%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-02 14:15
GTbets🎯2.27I 44.05%NM 40.89%EV -7.92%E -3.49%K -6.24%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 59.11%EV -6.68%E -4.26%K -11.73%G +0.000%7.7%2026-09-02 13:55
PMU (FR)🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 41.32%EV -9.54%E -4.28%K -7.76%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 58.68%EV -6.68%E -4.26%K -11.73%G +0.000%8.5%2026-09-02 13:55
Coral🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.26%EV -6.70%E -2.91%K -5.16%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 59.74%EV -7.87%E -5.08%K -14.32%G +0.000%8.0%2026-09-02 14:55
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.26%EV -6.70%E -2.91%K -5.16%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 59.74%EV -7.87%E -5.08%K -14.32%G +0.000%8.0%2026-09-02 14:55
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (8)

CorredorLocalVisitanteMargen ▲Actualizado
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.50I 40.00%NM 39.90%1.66I 60.24%NM 60.10%0.2%2026-09-02 14:55
Matchbook◎2.50I 40.00%NM 39.90%1.66I 60.24%NM 60.10%0.2%2026-09-02 14:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.52I 39.68%NM 39.42%1.64I 60.98%NM 60.58%0.7%2026-09-02 14:35
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.52I 39.68%NM 39.42%1.64I 60.98%NM 60.58%0.7%2026-09-02 14:35
Novig◎2.44I 40.98%NM 40.63%1.67I 59.88%NM 59.37%0.9%2026-09-02 14:55
Kalshi◎2.56I 39.06%NM 38.61%1.61I 62.11%NM 61.39%1.2%2026-09-02 14:10
ProphetX◎2.46I 40.65%NM 40.15%1.65I 60.61%NM 59.85%1.3%2026-09-02 14:55
Smarkets◎2.50I 40.00%NM 39.47%1.63I 61.35%NM 60.53%1.3%2026-09-02 14:55