Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Dino Prizmic v Tommy Paul

2026-09-02 15:00 UTC — ATP US Open

Resultado del partido

47 corredores (13 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Dino Prizmic (Local)

Predicción 24.95%4.01momio equitativo
EV +5.02%
Ventaja +1.19%
Kelly +1.56%
Crecimiento +0.078%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 4.21

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
22.43%24.93%24.90%26.12%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
3.483.773.754.2128.74%26.50%26.67%23.75%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Tommy Paul (Visitante)

Predicción 75.05%1.33momio equitativo
EV -3.18%
Ventaja -2.46%
Kelly -10.96%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.29

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
73.88%75.07%75.10%77.57%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.201.261.261.2983.33%79.61%79.37%77.52%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Para Resultado del partido, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estima estas probabilidades: Dino Prizmic (Local): 24.95%; Tommy Paul (Visitante): 75.05%. Para Dino Prizmic (Local), esa estimación equivale a momios decimales justos de 4.01. 2 corredores ofrecen momios superiores a ese nivel; los mejores momios disponibles son 4.21, lo que produce un valor esperado positivo de +5.02%.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (47 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocal ▼VisitanteMargenActualizado
1xBet🎯4.21I 23.75%NM 23.45%EV +5.02%E +1.19%K +1.56%G +0.078%1.29I 77.52%NM 76.55%EV -3.18%E -2.46%K -10.96%G +0.000%1.3%2026-08-30 22:05
SportsBet🎯4.15I 24.10%NM 22.43%EV +3.52%E +0.849%K +1.12%G +0.039%1.20I 83.33%NM 77.57%EV -9.93%E -8.28%K -49.67%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-30 21:45
Coolbet🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 24.24%EV -0.219%E -0.055%K -0.073%G +0.000%1.28I 78.13%NM 75.76%EV -3.93%E -3.07%K -14.03%G +0.000%3.1%2026-08-30 23:10
Betway🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -0.219%E -0.055%K -0.073%G +0.000%1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -6.18%E -4.95%K -24.73%G +0.000%5.0%2026-08-30 23:55
888sport🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -0.219%E -0.055%K -0.073%G +0.000%1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -6.18%E -4.95%K -24.73%G +0.000%5.0%2026-08-30 23:05
Mr Green (SE)🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -0.219%E -0.055%K -0.073%G +0.000%1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -6.18%E -4.95%K -24.73%G +0.000%5.0%2026-08-31 00:00
888sport (SE)🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -0.219%E -0.055%K -0.073%G +0.000%1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -6.18%E -4.95%K -24.73%G +0.000%5.0%2026-08-31 00:00
Bovada🎯3.90I 25.64%NM 24.56%EV -2.71%E -0.696%K -0.936%G +0.000%1.27I 78.74%NM 75.44%EV -4.68%E -3.69%K -17.33%G +0.000%4.4%2026-08-31 00:19
Betr (AU)🎯3.85I 25.97%NM 24.51%EV -3.96%E -1.03%K -1.39%G +0.000%1.25I 80.00%NM 75.49%EV -6.18%E -4.95%K -24.73%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-31 00:25
PointsBet (AU)🎯3.85I 25.97%NM 24.51%EV -3.96%E -1.03%K -1.39%G +0.000%1.25I 80.00%NM 75.49%EV -6.18%E -4.95%K -24.73%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-31 00:20
Marathon Bet🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 24.90%EV -5.21%E -1.37%K -1.86%G +0.000%1.26I 79.37%NM 75.10%EV -5.43%E -4.31%K -20.89%G +0.000%5.7%2026-08-30 22:00
Fanatics🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 24.90%EV -5.21%E -1.37%K -1.86%G +0.000%1.26I 79.37%NM 75.10%EV -5.43%E -4.31%K -20.89%G +0.000%5.7%2026-08-30 21:50
Neds🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 24.90%EV -5.21%E -1.37%K -1.86%G +0.000%1.26I 79.37%NM 75.10%EV -5.43%E -4.31%K -20.89%G +0.000%5.7%2026-08-30 22:00
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 24.90%EV -5.21%E -1.37%K -1.86%G +0.000%1.26I 79.37%NM 75.10%EV -5.43%E -4.31%K -20.89%G +0.000%5.7%2026-08-30 22:00
Tipico (DE)🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 24.75%EV -5.21%E -1.37%K -1.86%G +0.000%1.25I 80.00%NM 75.25%EV -6.18%E -4.95%K -24.73%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-30 21:50
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 24.75%EV -5.21%E -1.37%K -1.86%G +0.000%1.25I 80.00%NM 75.25%EV -6.18%E -4.95%K -24.73%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-30 22:00
Coral🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 24.75%EV -5.21%E -1.37%K -1.86%G +0.000%1.25I 80.00%NM 75.25%EV -6.18%E -4.95%K -24.73%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-30 22:00
Winamax (DE)🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 24.45%EV -5.21%E -1.37%K -1.86%G +0.000%1.23I 81.30%NM 75.55%EV -7.68%E -6.25%K -33.40%G +0.000%7.6%2026-08-30 21:15
Unibet🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 25.30%EV -6.46%E -1.72%K -2.35%G +0.000%1.27I 78.74%NM 74.70%EV -4.68%E -3.69%K -17.33%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-30 20:40
Virgin Bet🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 25.30%EV -6.46%E -1.72%K -2.35%G +0.000%1.27I 78.74%NM 74.70%EV -4.68%E -3.69%K -17.33%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-30 20:40
LiveScore Bet🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 25.30%EV -6.46%E -1.72%K -2.35%G +0.000%1.27I 78.74%NM 74.70%EV -4.68%E -3.69%K -17.33%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-30 20:40
Casumo🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 25.30%EV -6.46%E -1.72%K -2.35%G +0.000%1.27I 78.74%NM 74.70%EV -4.68%E -3.69%K -17.33%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-30 20:40
LeoVegas (SE)🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 25.30%EV -6.46%E -1.72%K -2.35%G +0.000%1.27I 78.74%NM 74.70%EV -4.68%E -3.69%K -17.33%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-30 20:40
Unibet (NL)🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 25.30%EV -6.46%E -1.72%K -2.35%G +0.000%1.27I 78.74%NM 74.70%EV -4.68%E -3.69%K -17.33%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-30 20:40
BetRivers🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 25.30%EV -6.46%E -1.72%K -2.35%G +0.000%1.27I 78.74%NM 74.70%EV -4.68%E -3.69%K -17.33%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-30 20:40
Unibet (SE)🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 25.30%EV -6.46%E -1.72%K -2.35%G +0.000%1.27I 78.74%NM 74.70%EV -4.68%E -3.69%K -17.33%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-30 20:40
Grosvenor🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 25.30%EV -6.46%E -1.72%K -2.35%G +0.000%1.27I 78.74%NM 74.70%EV -4.68%E -3.69%K -17.33%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-30 20:40
TABtouch🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 25.30%EV -6.46%E -1.72%K -2.35%G +0.000%1.27I 78.74%NM 74.70%EV -4.68%E -3.69%K -17.33%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-30 20:40
ATG (SE)🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 25.30%EV -6.46%E -1.72%K -2.35%G +0.000%1.27I 78.74%NM 74.70%EV -4.68%E -3.69%K -17.33%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-30 20:40
betPARX🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 25.30%EV -6.46%E -1.72%K -2.35%G +0.000%1.27I 78.74%NM 74.70%EV -4.68%E -3.69%K -17.33%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-30 20:40
Svenska Spel🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 25.30%EV -6.46%E -1.72%K -2.35%G +0.000%1.27I 78.74%NM 74.70%EV -4.68%E -3.69%K -17.33%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-30 20:40
Bally Bet🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 25.30%EV -6.46%E -1.72%K -2.35%G +0.000%1.27I 78.74%NM 74.70%EV -4.68%E -3.69%K -17.33%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-30 20:45
Hard Rock Bet🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 25.30%EV -6.46%E -1.72%K -2.35%G +0.000%1.27I 78.74%NM 74.70%EV -4.68%E -3.69%K -17.33%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-30 21:30
PlayUp🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 25.00%EV -6.46%E -1.72%K -2.35%G +0.000%1.25I 80.00%NM 75.00%EV -6.18%E -4.95%K -24.73%G +0.000%6.7%2026-08-30 23:55
betfred_uk🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 25.00%EV -6.46%E -1.72%K -2.35%G +0.000%1.25I 80.00%NM 75.00%EV -6.18%E -4.95%K -24.73%G +0.000%6.7%2026-08-30 20:55
theScore Bet🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 25.00%EV -6.46%E -1.72%K -2.35%G +0.000%1.25I 80.00%NM 75.00%EV -6.18%E -4.95%K -24.73%G +0.000%6.7%2026-08-30 21:45
GTbets🎯3.74I 26.74%NM 25.50%EV -6.71%E -1.79%K -2.45%G +0.000%1.28I 78.13%NM 74.50%EV -3.93%E -3.07%K -14.03%G +0.000%4.9%2026-08-30 20:45
Unibet (UK)🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 25.25%EV -7.70%E -2.08%K -2.85%G +0.000%1.25I 80.00%NM 74.75%EV -6.18%E -4.95%K -24.73%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-30 21:45
PMU (FR)🎯3.65I 27.40%NM 25.36%EV -8.95%E -2.45%K -3.38%G +0.000%1.24I 80.65%NM 74.64%EV -6.93%E -5.59%K -28.88%G +0.000%8.0%2026-08-30 20:40
DraftKings🎯3.62I 27.62%NM 26.12%EV -9.70%E -2.68%K -3.70%G +0.000%1.28I 78.13%NM 73.88%EV -3.93%E -3.07%K -14.03%G +0.000%5.7%2026-08-30 21:45
TAB🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 25.93%EV -10.20%E -2.83%K -3.92%G +0.000%1.26I 79.37%NM 74.07%EV -5.43%E -4.31%K -20.89%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-30 23:55
LeoVegas🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 25.62%EV -10.20%E -2.83%K -3.92%G +0.000%1.24I 80.65%NM 74.38%EV -6.93%E -5.59%K -28.88%G +0.000%8.4%2026-08-30 22:40
MyBookie.ag🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 25.62%EV -10.20%E -2.83%K -3.92%G +0.000%1.24I 80.65%NM 74.38%EV -6.93%E -5.59%K -28.88%G +0.000%8.4%2026-08-30 21:55
Betclic (FR)🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.00%EV -12.69%E -3.63%K -5.08%G +0.000%1.23I 81.30%NM 74.00%EV -7.68%E -6.25%K -33.40%G +0.000%9.9%2026-08-30 21:49
Unibet (FR)🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.00%EV -12.69%E -3.63%K -5.08%G +0.000%1.23I 81.30%NM 74.00%EV -7.68%E -6.25%K -33.40%G +0.000%9.9%2026-08-30 21:45
Winamax (FR)🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 25.53%EV -12.69%E -3.63%K -5.08%G +0.000%1.20I 83.33%NM 74.47%EV -9.93%E -8.28%K -49.67%G +0.000%11.9%2026-08-30 21:50
ReBet🎯3.48I 28.74%NM 26.11%EV -13.19%E -3.79%K -5.32%G +0.000%1.23I 81.30%NM 73.89%EV -7.68%E -6.25%K -33.40%G +0.000%10.0%2026-08-30 21:45
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (6)

CorredorLocalVisitanteMargen ▲Actualizado
Kalshi4.17I 23.98%NM 24.18%1.33I 75.19%NM 75.82%-0.8%2026-08-31 00:05
Betfair Exchange (UK)4.10I 24.39%NM 23.22%1.24I 80.65%NM 76.78%5.0%2026-08-31 00:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)4.10I 24.39%NM 23.22%1.24I 80.65%NM 76.78%5.0%2026-08-31 00:55
Matchbook4.10I 24.39%NM 22.35%1.18I 84.75%NM 77.65%9.1%2026-08-31 01:40
Betfair Exchange (AU)4.10I 24.39%NM 22.20%1.17I 85.47%NM 77.80%9.9%2026-08-30 23:35
Smarkets3.30I 30.30%NM 26.83%1.21I 82.64%NM 73.17%12.9%2026-08-30 21:50