Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Dino Prizmic v Tommy Paul

Inicio: 2026-09-02 23:50 UTC

Final: Dino Prizmic 1–3 Tommy Paul

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

62 corredores (20 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Dino Prizmic (Local)

Predicción 19.91%5.02momio equitativo
EV +9.50%
Ventaja +1.73%
Kelly +2.11%
Crecimiento +0.200%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 5.50

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
17.29%20.06%19.45%22.78%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
4.004.855.005.5025.00%20.60%20.00%18.18%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Tommy Paul (Visitante)

Predicción 80.09%1.25momio equitativo
EV -2.29%
Ventaja -1.88%
Kelly -10.40%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.22

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
77.22%79.94%80.55%82.71%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.141.181.171.2287.72%84.97%85.47%81.97%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Con la última cotización anterior al inicio, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estimó estas probabilidades para Resultado del partido: Dino Prizmic (Local): 19.91%; Tommy Paul (Visitante): 80.09%. Para Dino Prizmic (Local), esa estimación equivalía a momios decimales justos de 5.02. 22 corredores ofrecieron momios de cierre superiores a ese nivel; los mejores fueron 5.50, correspondientes a un valor esperado positivo de +9.50%.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (62 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocal ▼VisitanteMargenActualizado
Betway🎯5.50I 18.18%NM 17.29%EV +9.50%E +1.73%K +2.11%G +0.200%1.15I 86.96%NM 82.71%EV -7.89%E -6.86%K -52.63%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-02 23:47
Coolbet🎯5.25I 19.05%NM 18.48%EV +4.52%E +0.861%K +1.06%G +0.048%1.19I 84.03%NM 81.52%EV -4.69%E -3.94%K -24.69%G +0.000%3.1%2026-09-02 21:44
BetOnline.ag🎯5.24I 19.08%NM 18.38%EV +4.32%E +0.824%K +1.02%G +0.044%1.18I 84.75%NM 81.62%EV -5.49%E -4.65%K -30.51%G +0.000%3.8%2026-09-02 23:45
LowVig.ag🎯5.24I 19.08%NM 18.38%EV +4.32%E +0.824%K +1.02%G +0.044%1.18I 84.75%NM 81.62%EV -5.49%E -4.65%K -30.51%G +0.000%3.8%2026-09-02 23:45
FanDuel🎯5.20I 19.23%NM 18.37%EV +3.52%E +0.678%K +0.839%G +0.030%1.17I 85.47%NM 81.63%EV -6.29%E -5.38%K -37.02%G +0.000%4.7%2026-09-02 14:26
Pinnacle🎯5.13I 19.49%NM 19.09%EV +2.13%E +0.415%K +0.516%G +0.011%1.21I 82.64%NM 80.91%EV -3.09%E -2.55%K -14.71%G +0.000%2.1%2026-09-02 23:45
Unibet🎯5.10I 19.61%NM 18.66%EV +1.53%E +0.301%K +0.374%G +0.006%1.17I 85.47%NM 81.34%EV -6.29%E -5.38%K -37.02%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-02 10:45
Virgin Bet🎯5.10I 19.61%NM 18.66%EV +1.53%E +0.301%K +0.374%G +0.006%1.17I 85.47%NM 81.34%EV -6.29%E -5.38%K -37.02%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-02 10:45
LiveScore Bet🎯5.10I 19.61%NM 18.66%EV +1.53%E +0.301%K +0.374%G +0.006%1.17I 85.47%NM 81.34%EV -6.29%E -5.38%K -37.02%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-02 10:45
Casumo🎯5.10I 19.61%NM 18.66%EV +1.53%E +0.301%K +0.374%G +0.006%1.17I 85.47%NM 81.34%EV -6.29%E -5.38%K -37.02%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-02 10:45
LeoVegas (SE)🎯5.10I 19.61%NM 18.66%EV +1.53%E +0.301%K +0.374%G +0.006%1.17I 85.47%NM 81.34%EV -6.29%E -5.38%K -37.02%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-02 10:45
Unibet (NL)🎯5.10I 19.61%NM 18.66%EV +1.53%E +0.301%K +0.374%G +0.006%1.17I 85.47%NM 81.34%EV -6.29%E -5.38%K -37.02%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-02 10:45
BetRivers🎯5.10I 19.61%NM 18.66%EV +1.53%E +0.301%K +0.374%G +0.006%1.17I 85.47%NM 81.34%EV -6.29%E -5.38%K -37.02%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-02 10:45
Unibet (SE)🎯5.10I 19.61%NM 18.66%EV +1.53%E +0.301%K +0.374%G +0.006%1.17I 85.47%NM 81.34%EV -6.29%E -5.38%K -37.02%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-02 10:45
Grosvenor🎯5.10I 19.61%NM 18.66%EV +1.53%E +0.301%K +0.374%G +0.006%1.17I 85.47%NM 81.34%EV -6.29%E -5.38%K -37.02%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-02 10:45
TABtouch🎯5.10I 19.61%NM 18.66%EV +1.53%E +0.301%K +0.374%G +0.006%1.17I 85.47%NM 81.34%EV -6.29%E -5.38%K -37.02%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-02 10:45
ATG (SE)🎯5.10I 19.61%NM 18.66%EV +1.53%E +0.301%K +0.374%G +0.006%1.17I 85.47%NM 81.34%EV -6.29%E -5.38%K -37.02%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-02 10:45
betPARX🎯5.10I 19.61%NM 18.66%EV +1.53%E +0.301%K +0.374%G +0.006%1.17I 85.47%NM 81.34%EV -6.29%E -5.38%K -37.02%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-02 10:45
Svenska Spel🎯5.10I 19.61%NM 18.66%EV +1.53%E +0.301%K +0.374%G +0.006%1.17I 85.47%NM 81.34%EV -6.29%E -5.38%K -37.02%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-02 10:45
Bally Bet🎯5.10I 19.61%NM 18.66%EV +1.53%E +0.301%K +0.374%G +0.006%1.17I 85.47%NM 81.34%EV -6.29%E -5.38%K -37.02%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-02 10:49
SportsBet🎯5.10I 19.61%NM 18.66%EV +1.53%E +0.301%K +0.374%G +0.006%1.17I 85.47%NM 81.34%EV -6.29%E -5.38%K -37.02%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-02 14:25
1xBet🎯5.05I 19.80%NM 18.94%EV +0.537%E +0.106%K +0.133%G +0.001%1.18I 84.75%NM 81.06%EV -5.49%E -4.65%K -30.51%G +0.000%4.5%2026-09-02 23:35
Bovada🎯5.00I 20.00%NM 19.09%EV -0.458%E -0.092%K -0.114%G +0.000%1.18I 84.75%NM 80.91%EV -5.49%E -4.65%K -30.51%G +0.000%4.7%2026-09-02 21:45
betfred_uk🎯5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV -0.458%E -0.092%K -0.114%G +0.000%1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%EV -6.29%E -5.38%K -37.02%G +0.000%5.5%2026-09-02 23:46
Hard Rock Bet🎯5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV -0.458%E -0.092%K -0.114%G +0.000%1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%EV -6.29%E -5.38%K -37.02%G +0.000%5.5%2026-09-02 10:50
Neds🎯5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV -0.458%E -0.092%K -0.114%G +0.000%1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%EV -6.29%E -5.38%K -37.02%G +0.000%5.5%2026-09-02 21:45
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV -0.458%E -0.092%K -0.114%G +0.000%1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%EV -6.29%E -5.38%K -37.02%G +0.000%5.5%2026-09-02 21:45
BoyleSports🎯5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV -0.458%E -0.092%K -0.114%G +0.000%1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%EV -6.29%E -5.38%K -37.02%G +0.000%5.5%2026-09-02 10:55
Paddy Power🎯5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV -0.458%E -0.092%K -0.114%G +0.000%1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%EV -6.29%E -5.38%K -37.02%G +0.000%5.5%2026-09-02 14:25
Sky Bet🎯5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV -0.458%E -0.092%K -0.114%G +0.000%1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%EV -6.29%E -5.38%K -37.02%G +0.000%5.5%2026-09-02 14:25
PointsBet (AU)🎯5.00I 20.00%NM 18.83%EV -0.458%E -0.092%K -0.114%G +0.000%1.16I 86.21%NM 81.17%EV -7.09%E -6.12%K -44.34%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-02 23:46
BetMGM🎯5.00I 20.00%NM 18.83%EV -0.458%E -0.092%K -0.114%G +0.000%1.16I 86.21%NM 81.17%EV -7.09%E -6.12%K -44.34%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-02 21:45
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯5.00I 20.00%NM 18.70%EV -0.458%E -0.092%K -0.114%G +0.000%1.15I 86.96%NM 81.30%EV -7.89%E -6.86%K -52.63%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-02 21:45
Coral🎯5.00I 20.00%NM 18.70%EV -0.458%E -0.092%K -0.114%G +0.000%1.15I 86.96%NM 81.30%EV -7.89%E -6.86%K -52.63%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-02 21:45
Marathon Bet🎯4.90I 20.41%NM 19.41%EV -2.45%E -0.500%K -0.628%G +0.000%1.18I 84.75%NM 80.59%EV -5.49%E -4.65%K -30.51%G +0.000%5.2%2026-09-02 23:20
PMU (FR)🎯4.90I 20.41%NM 18.87%EV -2.45%E -0.500%K -0.628%G +0.000%1.14I 87.72%NM 81.13%EV -8.70%E -7.63%K -62.11%G +0.000%8.1%2026-09-02 10:45
Betr (AU)🎯4.85I 20.62%NM 19.44%EV -3.44%E -0.710%K -0.895%G +0.000%1.17I 85.47%NM 80.56%EV -6.29%E -5.38%K -37.02%G +0.000%6.1%2026-09-02 23:46
BetUS🎯4.81I 20.79%NM 19.70%EV -4.24%E -0.882%K -1.11%G +0.000%1.18I 84.75%NM 80.30%EV -5.49%E -4.65%K -30.51%G +0.000%5.5%2026-09-02 23:20
BetAnything🎯4.80I 20.83%NM 19.73%EV -4.44%E -0.925%K -1.17%G +0.000%1.18I 84.75%NM 80.27%EV -5.49%E -4.65%K -30.51%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-02 21:45
TAB🎯4.80I 20.83%NM 19.60%EV -4.44%E -0.925%K -1.17%G +0.000%1.17I 85.47%NM 80.40%EV -6.29%E -5.38%K -37.02%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-02 23:46
NetBet (FR)🎯4.80I 20.83%NM 19.60%EV -4.44%E -0.925%K -1.17%G +0.000%1.17I 85.47%NM 80.40%EV -6.29%E -5.38%K -37.02%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-02 23:24
Fliff🎯4.80I 20.83%NM 19.19%EV -4.44%E -0.925%K -1.17%G +0.000%1.14I 87.72%NM 80.81%EV -8.70%E -7.63%K -62.11%G +0.000%8.6%2026-09-02 23:45
PlayUp🎯4.75I 21.05%NM 19.90%EV -5.44%E -1.14%K -1.45%G +0.000%1.18I 84.75%NM 80.10%EV -5.49%E -4.65%K -30.51%G +0.000%5.8%2026-09-02 23:45
betano_uk🎯4.75I 21.05%NM 19.90%EV -5.44%E -1.14%K -1.45%G +0.000%1.18I 84.75%NM 80.10%EV -5.49%E -4.65%K -30.51%G +0.000%5.8%2026-09-02 21:45
888sport🎯4.75I 21.05%NM 19.49%EV -5.44%E -1.14%K -1.45%G +0.000%1.15I 86.96%NM 80.51%EV -7.89%E -6.86%K -52.63%G +0.000%8.0%2026-09-02 23:45
Mr Green (SE)🎯4.75I 21.05%NM 19.49%EV -5.44%E -1.14%K -1.45%G +0.000%1.15I 86.96%NM 80.51%EV -7.89%E -6.86%K -52.63%G +0.000%8.0%2026-09-02 23:45
888sport (SE)🎯4.75I 21.05%NM 19.49%EV -5.44%E -1.14%K -1.45%G +0.000%1.15I 86.96%NM 80.51%EV -7.89%E -6.86%K -52.63%G +0.000%8.0%2026-09-02 23:45
William Hill🎯4.75I 21.05%NM 19.49%EV -5.44%E -1.14%K -1.45%G +0.000%1.15I 86.96%NM 80.51%EV -7.89%E -6.86%K -52.63%G +0.000%8.0%2026-09-02 23:45
Winamax (DE)🎯4.60I 21.74%NM 20.96%EV -8.42%E -1.83%K -2.34%G +0.000%1.22I 81.97%NM 79.04%EV -2.29%E -1.88%K -10.40%G +0.000%3.7%2026-09-02 23:35
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯4.50I 22.22%NM 21.05%EV -10.41%E -2.31%K -2.97%G +0.000%1.20I 83.33%NM 78.95%EV -3.89%E -3.24%K -19.45%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-02 23:00
MyBookie.ag🎯4.45I 22.47%NM 21.52%EV -11.41%E -2.56%K -3.31%G +0.000%1.22I 81.97%NM 78.48%EV -2.29%E -1.88%K -10.40%G +0.000%4.4%2026-09-02 23:35
Winamax (FR)🎯4.40I 22.73%NM 21.57%EV -12.40%E -2.82%K -3.65%G +0.000%1.21I 82.64%NM 78.43%EV -3.09%E -2.55%K -14.71%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-02 23:45
Unibet (UK)🎯4.40I 22.73%NM 21.57%EV -12.40%E -2.82%K -3.65%G +0.000%1.21I 82.64%NM 78.43%EV -3.09%E -2.55%K -14.71%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-02 23:35
Fanatics🎯4.35I 22.99%NM 21.76%EV -13.40%E -3.08%K -4.00%G +0.000%1.21I 82.64%NM 78.24%EV -3.09%E -2.55%K -14.71%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-02 23:35
NordicBet🎯4.35I 22.99%NM 21.62%EV -13.40%E -3.08%K -4.00%G +0.000%1.20I 83.33%NM 78.38%EV -3.89%E -3.24%K -19.45%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-02 23:49
DraftKings🎯4.33I 23.09%NM 21.98%EV -13.80%E -3.19%K -4.14%G +0.000%1.22I 81.97%NM 78.02%EV -2.29%E -1.88%K -10.40%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-02 23:45
Betsson🎯4.32I 23.15%NM 21.74%EV -14.00%E -3.24%K -4.22%G +0.000%1.20I 83.33%NM 78.26%EV -3.89%E -3.24%K -19.45%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-02 23:35
ReBet🎯4.30I 23.26%NM 21.82%EV -14.39%E -3.35%K -4.36%G +0.000%1.20I 83.33%NM 78.18%EV -3.89%E -3.24%K -19.45%G +0.000%6.6%2026-09-02 23:35
theScore Bet🎯4.25I 23.53%NM 22.16%EV -15.39%E -3.62%K -4.74%G +0.000%1.21I 82.64%NM 77.84%EV -3.09%E -2.55%K -14.71%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-02 23:35
LeoVegas🎯4.20I 23.81%NM 22.22%EV -16.38%E -3.90%K -5.12%G +0.000%1.20I 83.33%NM 77.78%EV -3.89%E -3.24%K -19.45%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-02 23:35
Caesars🎯4.20I 23.81%NM 22.22%EV -16.38%E -3.90%K -5.12%G +0.000%1.20I 83.33%NM 77.78%EV -3.89%E -3.24%K -19.45%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-01 13:14
Betclic (FR)🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 22.78%EV -20.37%E -5.09%K -6.79%G +0.000%1.18I 84.75%NM 77.22%EV -5.49%E -4.65%K -30.51%G +0.000%9.7%2026-09-02 23:45
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (8)

CorredorLocalVisitanteMargen ▲Actualizado
Matchbook◎5.40I 18.52%NM 18.43%1.22I 81.97%NM 81.57%0.5%2026-09-02 23:45
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎5.30I 18.87%NM 18.71%1.22I 81.97%NM 81.29%0.8%2026-09-02 23:46
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎5.30I 18.87%NM 18.71%1.22I 81.97%NM 81.29%0.8%2026-09-02 23:45
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎5.30I 18.87%NM 18.71%1.22I 81.97%NM 81.29%0.8%2026-09-02 23:45
Novig◎5.13I 19.49%NM 19.21%1.22I 81.97%NM 80.79%1.5%2026-09-02 23:45
ProphetX◎5.05I 19.80%NM 19.46%1.22I 81.97%NM 80.54%1.8%2026-09-02 23:45
Kalshi◎5.00I 20.00%NM 19.61%1.22I 81.97%NM 80.39%2.0%2026-09-02 23:15
Smarkets◎5.10I 19.61%NM 19.05%1.20I 83.33%NM 80.95%2.9%2026-09-02 23:35