Modelo predefinidoMédia interquartílica (Lista Curada)

Alexander Bublik v Tommy Paul

Início: 2026-09-04 16:10 UTC

Final: Alexander Bublik 2–3 Tommy Paul

Odds de fecho — as probabilidades calculadas e o valor esperado com base nas últimas cotações registadas antes do início, segundo o modelo selecionado. O jogo já começou, pelo que estes valores não são atuais. Avaliar a fiabilidade das previsões probabilísticas de cada modelo face aos resultados de todos os jogos concluídos →

Frente a frente

64 casas de apostas (21 na análise )

Probabilidade estimada de cada resultado, segundo o modelo: Média interquartílica (Lista Curada)

Alexander Bublik (Local)

Previsão 38.96%2.57odd justa
EV -2.59%
Vantagem -1.04%
Kelly -1.73%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 2.50

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
37.97%39.02%38.93%40.51%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
2.332.422.402.5042.92%41.39%41.67%40.00%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Tommy Paul (Visitante)

Previsão 61.04%1.64odd justa
EV -1.12%
Vantagem -0.692%
Kelly -1.81%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 1.62

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
59.49%60.98%61.07%62.03%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
1.531.561.571.6265.36%63.97%63.69%61.73%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Nas últimas odds antes do início, Média interquartílica (Lista Curada) estimava para Frente a frente: Alexander Bublik (Local): 38.96%; Tommy Paul (Visitante): 61.04%. Para Tommy Paul (Visitante), essa estimativa equivalia a odds decimais justas de 1.64. Nenhuma casa de apostas elegível oferecia odds de fecho acima desse nível: as melhores eram 1.62, com valor esperado de -1.12%; não produziam valor esperado positivo.

Odds das casas de apostas (64 casas de apostas)

Não temos qualquer vínculo com casas de apostas e não recebemos nada pelas ações realizadas junto delas.

Casa de apostasLocal ▼VisitanteMargemAtualização
Coolbet🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 38.88%EV -2.59%E -1.04%K -1.73%G +0.000%1.59I 62.89%NM 61.12%EV -2.95%E -1.86%K -5.00%G +0.000%2.9%2026-09-04 11:40
Winamax (DE)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 38.73%EV -2.59%E -1.04%K -1.73%G +0.000%1.58I 63.29%NM 61.27%EV -3.56%E -2.26%K -6.14%G +0.000%3.3%2026-09-04 11:25
Unibet (FR)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 38.57%EV -2.59%E -1.04%K -1.73%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 61.43%EV -4.17%E -2.66%K -7.32%G +0.000%3.7%2026-09-04 14:10
Fanatics🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 38.42%EV -2.59%E -1.04%K -1.73%G +0.000%1.56I 64.10%NM 61.58%EV -4.78%E -3.07%K -8.54%G +0.000%4.1%2026-09-04 07:34
Betway🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 38.27%EV -2.59%E -1.04%K -1.73%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 61.73%EV -5.39%E -3.48%K -9.81%G +0.000%4.5%2026-09-04 14:31
BoyleSports🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -2.59%E -1.04%K -1.73%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -6.61%E -4.32%K -12.48%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-04 12:59
ReBet🎯2.49I 40.16%NM 38.67%EV -2.98%E -1.20%K -2.00%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 61.33%EV -4.17%E -2.66%K -7.32%G +0.000%3.9%2026-09-04 14:15
1xBet🎯2.49I 40.16%NM 38.52%EV -2.98%E -1.20%K -2.00%G +0.000%1.56I 64.10%NM 61.48%EV -4.78%E -3.07%K -8.54%G +0.000%4.3%2026-09-04 14:35
BetUS🎯2.49I 40.16%NM 38.52%EV -2.98%E -1.20%K -2.00%G +0.000%1.56I 64.10%NM 61.48%EV -4.78%E -3.07%K -8.54%G +0.000%4.3%2026-09-04 14:31
Unibet (UK)🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 38.61%EV -3.37%E -1.36%K -2.28%G +0.000%1.56I 64.10%NM 61.39%EV -4.78%E -3.07%K -8.54%G +0.000%4.4%2026-09-04 14:10
GTbets🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 38.15%EV -3.37%E -1.36%K -2.28%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 61.85%EV -6.61%E -4.32%K -12.48%G +0.000%5.7%2026-09-03 08:05
Pinnacle🎯2.47I 40.49%NM 39.46%EV -3.76%E -1.52%K -2.56%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 60.54%EV -1.73%E -1.08%K -2.84%G +0.000%2.6%2026-09-04 14:15
MyBookie.ag🎯2.46I 40.65%NM 38.81%EV -4.15%E -1.69%K -2.84%G +0.000%1.56I 64.10%NM 61.19%EV -4.78%E -3.07%K -8.54%G +0.000%4.8%2026-09-04 14:13
FanDuel🎯2.46I 40.65%NM 38.81%EV -4.15%E -1.69%K -2.84%G +0.000%1.56I 64.10%NM 61.19%EV -4.78%E -3.07%K -8.54%G +0.000%4.8%2026-09-04 14:30
Betclic (FR)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 39.21%EV -4.54%E -1.85%K -3.13%G +0.000%1.58I 63.29%NM 60.79%EV -3.56%E -2.26%K -6.14%G +0.000%4.1%2026-09-04 14:10
Bovada🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 39.05%EV -4.54%E -1.85%K -3.13%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 60.95%EV -4.17%E -2.66%K -7.32%G +0.000%4.5%2026-09-04 14:09
BetAnything🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 39.05%EV -4.54%E -1.85%K -3.13%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 60.95%EV -4.17%E -2.66%K -7.32%G +0.000%4.5%2026-09-04 14:15
SportsBet🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.90%EV -4.54%E -1.85%K -3.13%G +0.000%1.56I 64.10%NM 61.10%EV -4.78%E -3.07%K -8.54%G +0.000%4.9%2026-09-04 14:31
Winamax (FR)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.90%EV -4.54%E -1.85%K -3.13%G +0.000%1.56I 64.10%NM 61.10%EV -4.78%E -3.07%K -8.54%G +0.000%4.9%2026-09-04 11:25
theScore Bet🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.60%EV -4.54%E -1.85%K -3.13%G +0.000%1.54I 64.94%NM 61.40%EV -6.00%E -3.90%K -11.12%G +0.000%5.8%2026-09-04 07:35
LeoVegas🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.44%EV -4.54%E -1.85%K -3.13%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 61.56%EV -6.61%E -4.32%K -12.48%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-04 14:10
Marathon Bet🎯2.43I 41.15%NM 38.94%EV -5.32%E -2.19%K -3.72%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 61.06%EV -5.39%E -3.48%K -9.81%G +0.000%5.7%2026-09-04 13:00
Betsson🎯2.43I 41.15%NM 38.64%EV -5.32%E -2.19%K -3.72%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 61.36%EV -6.61%E -4.32%K -12.48%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-04 14:10
NordicBet🎯2.43I 41.15%NM 38.64%EV -5.32%E -2.19%K -3.72%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 61.36%EV -6.61%E -4.32%K -12.48%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-04 14:10
NetBet (FR)🎯2.42I 41.32%NM 38.73%EV -5.71%E -2.36%K -4.02%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 61.27%EV -6.61%E -4.32%K -12.48%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-04 14:25
LowVig.ag🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 40.30%EV -6.49%E -2.70%K -4.63%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 59.70%EV -1.12%E -0.692%K -1.81%G +0.000%3.4%2026-09-04 14:15
BetOnline.ag🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 40.30%EV -6.49%E -2.70%K -4.63%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 59.70%EV -1.12%E -0.692%K -1.81%G +0.000%3.4%2026-09-04 14:15
Hard Rock Bet🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.85%EV -6.49%E -2.70%K -4.63%G +0.000%1.59I 62.89%NM 60.15%EV -2.95%E -1.86%K -5.00%G +0.000%4.6%2026-09-03 23:35
betano_uk🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.55%EV -6.49%E -2.70%K -4.63%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 60.45%EV -4.17%E -2.66%K -7.32%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-04 14:30
Neds🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.55%EV -6.49%E -2.70%K -4.63%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 60.45%EV -4.17%E -2.66%K -7.32%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-03 13:05
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.55%EV -6.49%E -2.70%K -4.63%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 60.45%EV -4.17%E -2.66%K -7.32%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-03 13:05
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.24%EV -6.49%E -2.70%K -4.63%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 60.76%EV -5.39%E -3.48%K -9.81%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-04 11:30
Betr (AU)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.24%EV -6.49%E -2.70%K -4.63%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 60.76%EV -5.39%E -3.48%K -9.81%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-04 14:31
Tipico (DE)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.24%EV -6.49%E -2.70%K -4.63%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 60.76%EV -5.39%E -3.48%K -9.81%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-04 14:10
BetMGM🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.09%EV -6.49%E -2.70%K -4.63%G +0.000%1.54I 64.94%NM 60.91%EV -6.00%E -3.90%K -11.12%G +0.000%6.6%2026-09-03 13:05
Caesars🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.93%EV -6.49%E -2.70%K -4.63%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 61.07%EV -6.61%E -4.32%K -12.48%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-03 13:19
Fliff🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.93%EV -6.49%E -2.70%K -4.63%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 61.07%EV -6.61%E -4.32%K -12.48%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-03 13:05
Paddy Power🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.93%EV -6.49%E -2.70%K -4.63%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 61.07%EV -6.61%E -4.32%K -12.48%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-04 14:30
DraftKings🎯2.39I 41.84%NM 39.65%EV -6.88%E -2.88%K -4.95%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 60.35%EV -4.17%E -2.66%K -7.32%G +0.000%5.5%2026-09-03 13:00
Virgin Bet🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 39.90%EV -7.27%E -3.05%K -5.27%G +0.000%1.58I 63.29%NM 60.10%EV -3.56%E -2.26%K -6.14%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-03 23:35
LiveScore Bet🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 39.90%EV -7.27%E -3.05%K -5.27%G +0.000%1.58I 63.29%NM 60.10%EV -3.56%E -2.26%K -6.14%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-04 07:05
Unibet🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 39.90%EV -7.27%E -3.05%K -5.27%G +0.000%1.58I 63.29%NM 60.10%EV -3.56%E -2.26%K -6.14%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-04 07:05
betfred_uk🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -7.27%E -3.05%K -5.27%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -4.17%E -2.66%K -7.32%G +0.000%5.7%2026-09-04 11:35
Grosvenor🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -7.27%E -3.05%K -5.27%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -4.17%E -2.66%K -7.32%G +0.000%5.7%2026-09-04 07:05
Casumo🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -7.27%E -3.05%K -5.27%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -4.17%E -2.66%K -7.32%G +0.000%5.7%2026-09-04 07:05
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -7.27%E -3.05%K -5.27%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -4.17%E -2.66%K -7.32%G +0.000%5.7%2026-09-04 07:05
Unibet (NL)🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -7.27%E -3.05%K -5.27%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -4.17%E -2.66%K -7.32%G +0.000%5.7%2026-09-03 23:35
Unibet (SE)🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -7.27%E -3.05%K -5.27%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -4.17%E -2.66%K -7.32%G +0.000%5.7%2026-09-03 23:35
BetRivers🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -7.27%E -3.05%K -5.27%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -4.17%E -2.66%K -7.32%G +0.000%5.7%2026-09-03 23:35
TABtouch🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -7.27%E -3.05%K -5.27%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -4.17%E -2.66%K -7.32%G +0.000%5.7%2026-09-03 23:35
betPARX🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -7.27%E -3.05%K -5.27%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -4.17%E -2.66%K -7.32%G +0.000%5.7%2026-09-03 23:35
Svenska Spel🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -7.27%E -3.05%K -5.27%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -4.17%E -2.66%K -7.32%G +0.000%5.7%2026-09-03 23:35
Bally Bet🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -7.27%E -3.05%K -5.27%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -4.17%E -2.66%K -7.32%G +0.000%5.7%2026-09-04 07:05
ATG (SE)🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -7.27%E -3.05%K -5.27%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -4.17%E -2.66%K -7.32%G +0.000%5.7%2026-09-04 07:05
888sport🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -7.27%E -3.05%K -5.27%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -4.17%E -2.66%K -7.32%G +0.000%5.7%2026-09-04 11:10
William Hill🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -7.27%E -3.05%K -5.27%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -4.17%E -2.66%K -7.32%G +0.000%5.7%2026-09-04 11:10
Sky Bet🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -7.27%E -3.05%K -5.27%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -4.17%E -2.66%K -7.32%G +0.000%5.7%2026-09-04 14:29
888sport (SE)🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -7.27%E -3.05%K -5.27%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -4.17%E -2.66%K -7.32%G +0.000%5.7%2026-09-04 11:10
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -7.27%E -3.05%K -5.27%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -4.17%E -2.66%K -7.32%G +0.000%5.7%2026-09-04 11:50
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.37I 42.19%NM 39.23%EV -7.66%E -3.23%K -5.59%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 60.77%EV -6.61%E -4.32%K -12.48%G +0.000%7.6%2026-09-03 13:05
Coral🎯2.37I 42.19%NM 39.23%EV -7.66%E -3.23%K -5.59%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 60.77%EV -6.61%E -4.32%K -12.48%G +0.000%7.6%2026-09-03 13:05
TAB🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -8.43%E -3.59%K -6.25%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -2.34%E -1.46%K -3.90%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-04 14:08
PlayUp🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.20%EV -8.43%E -3.59%K -6.25%G +0.000%1.58I 63.29%NM 59.80%EV -3.56%E -2.26%K -6.14%G +0.000%5.8%2026-09-04 14:10
PMU (FR)🎯2.33I 42.92%NM 39.79%EV -9.21%E -3.95%K -6.93%G +0.000%1.54I 64.94%NM 60.21%EV -6.00%E -3.90%K -11.12%G +0.000%7.9%2026-09-04 07:04
Margem = Margem · I = Probabilidade implícita · NM = Probabilidade sem margem · EV = Valor esperado · E = Vantagem · K = Critério de Kelly · G = Crescimento do capital de apostas

Atualização indica quando cada casa alterou a cotação pela última vez; uma hora mais antiga significa apenas que as odds não mudaram, não que estejam desatualizadas. As casas sem dados nos últimos ~15 minutos são normalmente excluídas; apenas quando a fonte de todo um mercado fica sem atualizações se mostram as últimas cotações registadas.

Bolsas de apostas (8)

Casa de apostasLocalVisitanteMargem ▲Atualização
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.54I 39.37%NM 39.23%1.64I 60.98%NM 60.77%0.3%2026-09-04 14:35
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.54I 39.37%NM 39.23%1.64I 60.98%NM 60.77%0.3%2026-09-04 14:31
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.54I 39.37%NM 39.23%1.64I 60.98%NM 60.77%0.3%2026-09-04 14:35
Matchbook◎2.54I 39.37%NM 39.23%1.64I 60.98%NM 60.77%0.3%2026-09-04 14:31
Novig◎2.50I 40.00%NM 39.76%1.65I 60.61%NM 60.24%0.6%2026-09-04 14:15
ProphetX◎2.52I 39.68%NM 39.42%1.64I 60.98%NM 60.58%0.7%2026-09-04 14:10
Kalshi◎2.56I 39.06%NM 38.61%1.61I 62.11%NM 61.39%1.2%2026-09-03 14:15
Smarkets◎2.50I 40.00%NM 39.17%1.61I 62.11%NM 60.83%2.1%2026-09-04 14:35