语言:简体中文
Alex Michelsen v Federico Cinà
收盘赔率 — 按所选模型，根据开赛前最后记录的赔率计算得出的概率和期望值。比赛已经开始，因此这些并非实时数据。 依据所有已完赛结果评估各模型概率预测的可靠性 →
胜负盘
Alex Michelsen (主队)
预测 80.65%1.24公平赔率
EV -2.41%
优势 -1.99%
Kelly -11.48%
增长率 +0.000%
假设最高赔率为 1.21
博彩公司预测分布
77.78%80.53%80.60%83.45%最小值均值中位数最大值
赔率分布
1.141.191.191.2187.72%84.25%83.68%82.64%最小值均值中位数最大值
Federico Cinà (客队)
预测 19.35%5.17公平赔率
EV +11.25%
优势 +1.96%
Kelly +2.37%
增长率 +0.266%
假设最高赔率为 5.75
博彩公司预测分布
16.55%19.47%19.40%22.22%最小值均值中位数最大值
赔率分布
4.204.744.685.7523.81%21.09%21.39%17.39%最小值均值中位数最大值
按开赛前最后一组赔率，四分位数间均值 (精选名单)对胜负盘的概率估计为：Alex Michelsen (主队)：80.65%；Federico Cinà (客队)：19.35%。 对于“Federico Cinà (客队)”，该估计对应的公平十进制赔率为5.17。 当时有11家博彩公司提供高于该水平的收盘赔率；最佳赔率为5.75，对应+11.25%的正期望值。
博彩公司赔率 (60 家博彩公司)
我们与任何博彩公司均无关联，也不会从用户在这些公司进行的任何操作中获利。
| 博彩公司 | 主队 | 客队 ▼ | 利润率 | 更新时间 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 83.45%EV -8.06%E -7.07%K -57.54%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.55%EV +11.25%E +1.96%K +2.37%G +0.266% | 5.1% | 2026-08-30 22:50 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.16I 86.21%NM 82.84%EV -6.44%E -5.55%K -40.27%G +0.000% | 5.60I 17.86%NM 17.16%EV +8.35%E +1.49%K +1.81%G +0.151% | 4.1% | 2026-08-30 22:27 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 82.96%EV -7.25%E -6.30%K -48.33%G +0.000% | 5.60I 17.86%NM 17.04%EV +8.35%E +1.49%K +1.81%G +0.151% | 4.8% | 2026-08-30 22:50 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 82.83%EV -8.06%E -7.07%K -57.54%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.17%EV +6.41%E +1.17%K +1.42%G +0.091% | 5.9% | 2026-08-30 22:50 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 82.83%EV -8.06%E -7.07%K -57.54%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.17%EV +6.41%E +1.17%K +1.42%G +0.091% | 5.9% | 2026-08-30 22:48 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 82.19%EV -5.64%E -4.82%K -33.16%G +0.000% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 17.81%EV +4.48%E +0.829%K +1.02%G +0.046% | 4.0% | 2026-08-30 22:50 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.19I 84.03%NM 81.78%EV -4.02%E -3.38%K -21.18%G +0.000% | 5.34I 18.73%NM 18.22%EV +3.32%E +0.621%K +0.764%G +0.025% | 2.8% | 2026-08-30 22:50 |
| ReBet🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.92%EV -5.64%E -4.82%K -33.16%G +0.000% | 5.30I 18.87%NM 18.08%EV +2.54%E +0.480%K +0.591%G +0.015% | 4.3% | 2026-08-30 22:50 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.92%EV -5.64%E -4.82%K -33.16%G +0.000% | 5.30I 18.87%NM 18.08%EV +2.54%E +0.480%K +0.591%G +0.015% | 4.3% | 2026-08-30 22:50 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.78%EV -5.64%E -4.82%K -33.16%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 18.22%EV +1.58%E +0.300%K +0.371%G +0.006% | 4.5% | 2026-08-30 22:50 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.63%EV -5.64%E -4.82%K -33.16%G +0.000% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 18.37%EV +0.608%E +0.117%K +0.145%G +0.001% | 4.7% | 2026-08-30 22:50 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 81.60%EV -7.25%E -6.30%K -48.33%G +0.000% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 18.40%EV -1.33%E -0.260%K -0.324%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-08-30 22:50 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 81.48%EV -7.25%E -6.30%K -48.33%G +0.000% | 5.06I 19.76%NM 18.52%EV -2.10%E -0.415%K -0.517%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-08-30 22:50 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 81.48%EV -7.25%E -6.30%K -48.33%G +0.000% | 5.06I 19.76%NM 18.52%EV -2.10%E -0.415%K -0.517%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-08-30 22:50 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 80.65%EV -3.22%E -2.68%K -16.09%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.35%EV -3.26%E -0.652%K -0.815%G +0.000% | 3.3% | 2026-08-30 22:35 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 80.91%EV -4.83%E -4.09%K -26.83%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.09%EV -3.26%E -0.652%K -0.815%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-08-30 21:25 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%EV -5.64%E -4.82%K -33.16%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV -3.26%E -0.652%K -0.815%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-08-30 22:50 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.16I 86.21%NM 81.17%EV -6.44%E -5.55%K -40.27%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.83%EV -3.26%E -0.652%K -0.815%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-08-30 22:50 |
| MyBookie.ag🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 80.59%EV -4.83%E -4.09%K -26.83%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 19.41%EV -5.20%E -1.06%K -1.33%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-08-30 22:50 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 80.17%EV -3.22%E -2.68%K -16.09%G +0.000% | 4.85I 20.62%NM 19.83%EV -6.16%E -1.27%K -1.60%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-08-30 22:30 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 80.17%EV -3.22%E -2.68%K -16.09%G +0.000% | 4.85I 20.62%NM 19.83%EV -6.16%E -1.27%K -1.60%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-08-30 22:30 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 80.43%EV -4.83%E -4.09%K -26.83%G +0.000% | 4.85I 20.62%NM 19.57%EV -6.16%E -1.27%K -1.60%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-30 22:50 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 80.56%EV -5.64%E -4.82%K -33.16%G +0.000% | 4.85I 20.62%NM 19.44%EV -6.16%E -1.27%K -1.60%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-08-30 22:50 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 80.27%EV -4.83%E -4.09%K -26.83%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.73%EV -7.13%E -1.49%K -1.88%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-08-30 22:50 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 79.83%EV -3.22%E -2.68%K -16.09%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 20.17%EV -8.10%E -1.71%K -2.16%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-08-30 18:30 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 79.83%EV -3.22%E -2.68%K -16.09%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 20.17%EV -8.10%E -1.71%K -2.16%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-08-30 22:25 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 80.10%EV -4.83%E -4.09%K -26.83%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.90%EV -8.10%E -1.71%K -2.16%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-30 21:25 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 80.10%EV -4.83%E -4.09%K -26.83%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.90%EV -8.10%E -1.71%K -2.16%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-30 22:50 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 80.10%EV -4.83%E -4.09%K -26.83%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.90%EV -8.10%E -1.71%K -2.16%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-30 22:50 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 79.93%EV -4.83%E -4.09%K -26.83%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 20.07%EV -9.07%E -1.93%K -2.45%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-08-30 21:25 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.19I 84.03%NM 79.62%EV -4.02%E -3.38%K -21.18%G +0.000% | 4.65I 21.51%NM 20.38%EV -10.03%E -2.16%K -2.75%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-08-30 22:40 |
| GTbets🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 79.35%EV -3.22%E -2.68%K -16.09%G +0.000% | 4.61I 21.69%NM 20.65%EV -10.81%E -2.34%K -2.99%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-08-30 22:10 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 78.95%EV -3.22%E -2.68%K -16.09%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.05%EV -12.94%E -2.87%K -3.70%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-08-30 13:25 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 78.95%EV -3.22%E -2.68%K -16.09%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.05%EV -12.94%E -2.87%K -3.70%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-08-30 22:44 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 78.95%EV -3.22%E -2.68%K -16.09%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.05%EV -12.94%E -2.87%K -3.70%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-08-30 13:25 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 78.95%EV -3.22%E -2.68%K -16.09%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.05%EV -12.94%E -2.87%K -3.70%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-08-30 13:25 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 78.95%EV -3.22%E -2.68%K -16.09%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.05%EV -12.94%E -2.87%K -3.70%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-08-30 13:30 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 78.95%EV -3.22%E -2.68%K -16.09%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.05%EV -12.94%E -2.87%K -3.70%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-08-30 11:45 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 79.23%EV -4.83%E -4.09%K -26.83%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.77%EV -12.94%E -2.87%K -3.70%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-08-30 19:10 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 79.23%EV -4.83%E -4.09%K -26.83%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.77%EV -12.94%E -2.87%K -3.70%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-08-30 16:45 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 79.23%EV -4.83%E -4.09%K -26.83%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.77%EV -12.94%E -2.87%K -3.70%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-08-30 16:45 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 78.57%EV -3.22%E -2.68%K -16.09%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.43%EV -14.87%E -3.38%K -4.37%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-08-30 16:45 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 78.57%EV -3.22%E -2.68%K -16.09%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.43%EV -14.87%E -3.38%K -4.37%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-08-30 16:45 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.21I 82.64%NM 78.24%EV -2.41%E -1.99%K -11.48%G +0.000% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 21.76%EV -15.84%E -3.64%K -4.73%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-08-30 16:55 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.21I 82.64%NM 78.24%EV -2.41%E -1.99%K -11.48%G +0.000% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 21.76%EV -15.84%E -3.64%K -4.73%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-08-30 16:55 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.21I 82.64%NM 78.24%EV -2.41%E -1.99%K -11.48%G +0.000% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 21.76%EV -15.84%E -3.64%K -4.73%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-08-30 16:55 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.21I 82.64%NM 78.24%EV -2.41%E -1.99%K -11.48%G +0.000% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 21.76%EV -15.84%E -3.64%K -4.73%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-08-30 16:55 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.21I 82.64%NM 78.24%EV -2.41%E -1.99%K -11.48%G +0.000% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 21.76%EV -15.84%E -3.64%K -4.73%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-08-30 16:55 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.21I 82.64%NM 78.24%EV -2.41%E -1.99%K -11.48%G +0.000% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 21.76%EV -15.84%E -3.64%K -4.73%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-08-30 16:55 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.21I 82.64%NM 78.24%EV -2.41%E -1.99%K -11.48%G +0.000% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 21.76%EV -15.84%E -3.64%K -4.73%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-08-30 16:55 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.21I 82.64%NM 78.24%EV -2.41%E -1.99%K -11.48%G +0.000% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 21.76%EV -15.84%E -3.64%K -4.73%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-08-30 16:55 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.21I 82.64%NM 78.24%EV -2.41%E -1.99%K -11.48%G +0.000% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 21.76%EV -15.84%E -3.64%K -4.73%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-08-30 16:55 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.21I 82.64%NM 78.24%EV -2.41%E -1.99%K -11.48%G +0.000% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 21.76%EV -15.84%E -3.64%K -4.73%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-08-30 16:55 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.21I 82.64%NM 78.24%EV -2.41%E -1.99%K -11.48%G +0.000% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 21.76%EV -15.84%E -3.64%K -4.73%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-08-30 16:55 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.21I 82.64%NM 78.24%EV -2.41%E -1.99%K -11.48%G +0.000% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 21.76%EV -15.84%E -3.64%K -4.73%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-08-30 16:55 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.21I 82.64%NM 78.24%EV -2.41%E -1.99%K -11.48%G +0.000% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 21.76%EV -15.84%E -3.64%K -4.73%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-08-30 16:55 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.21I 82.64%NM 77.84%EV -2.41%E -1.99%K -11.48%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.16%EV -17.77%E -4.18%K -5.47%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-08-30 17:00 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.19I 84.03%NM 78.13%EV -4.02%E -3.38%K -21.18%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 21.88%EV -17.77%E -4.18%K -5.47%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-08-30 16:55 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 77.78%EV -3.22%E -2.68%K -16.09%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.22%EV -18.74%E -4.46%K -5.86%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-08-30 18:35 |
| Caesars🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 77.78%EV -3.22%E -2.68%K -16.09%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.22%EV -18.74%E -4.46%K -5.86%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-08-30 16:56 |
利润率 = 利润率（超额概率） · I = 隐含概率 · NM = 无利润率概率 · EV = 期望值 · E = 优势 · K = Kelly 准则 · G = 资金增长率
更新时间 指各博彩公司最后一次调整赔率的时间，因此时间较早仅表示赔率一直未变，并不代表数据已经失效。通常，约 15 分钟内未收到更新的博彩公司会被移除；只有整个市场的数据源均无更新时，才会改为显示最后记录的赔率。
博彩交易所 (8)
| 博彩公司 | 主队 | 客队 | 利润率 ▲ | 更新时间 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matchbook◎ | 1.20I 83.33%NM 82.35% | 5.60I 17.86%NM 17.65% | 1.2% | 2026-08-30 22:50 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.20I 83.33%NM 82.35% | 5.60I 17.86%NM 17.65% | 1.2% | 2026-08-30 22:50 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.20I 83.33%NM 82.35% | 5.60I 17.86%NM 17.65% | 1.2% | 2026-08-30 22:50 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.20I 83.33%NM 82.35% | 5.60I 17.86%NM 17.65% | 1.2% | 2026-08-30 22:50 |
| Novig◎ | 1.20I 83.33%NM 82.25% | 5.56I 17.99%NM 17.75% | 1.3% | 2026-08-30 22:50 |
| Kalshi◎ | 1.19I 84.03%NM 82.37% | 5.56I 17.99%NM 17.63% | 2.0% | 2026-08-30 22:50 |
| ProphetX◎ | 1.19I 84.03%NM 82.21% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.79% | 2.2% | 2026-08-30 22:50 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.18I 84.75%NM 82.60% | 5.60I 17.86%NM 17.40% | 2.6% | 2026-08-30 22:50 |