Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Rafael Jodar v Daniil Medvedev

2026-10-17 11:00 UTC — ATP Shanghai Masters

Resultado del partido

61 corredores (19 en el análisis )

37%

63%

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Rafael Jodar (Local)

Predicción 36.54%2.74momio equitativo

EV -1.35%

Ventaja -0.499%

Kelly -0.792%

Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.70

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores

34.15%36.67%36.59%39.24%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Distribución de los momios

2.402.572.602.7041.67%38.86%38.46%37.04%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Daniil Medvedev (Visitante)

Predicción 63.46%1.58momio equitativo

EV -1.000%

Ventaja -0.641%

Kelly -1.79%

Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.56

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores

60.76%63.33%63.41%65.85%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Distribución de los momios

1.401.501.501.5671.43%66.75%66.67%64.10%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Para Resultado del partido, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estima estas probabilidades: Rafael Jodar (Local): 36.54%; Daniil Medvedev (Visitante): 63.46%. Para Daniil Medvedev (Visitante), esa estimación equivale a momios decimales justos de 1.58. Ningún corredor elegible ofrece momios superiores a ese nivel: los mejores momios disponibles son 1.56, con un valor esperado de -1.000%; no producen valor esperado positivo.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (61 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

Corredor	Local ▼	Visitante	Margen	Actualizado
betano_uk🎯	2.70I 37.04%NM 34.15%EV -1.35%E -0.499%K -0.792%G +0.000%	1.40I 71.43%NM 65.85%EV -11.15%E -7.97%K -27.88%G +0.000%	8.5%	2026-10-16 20:38
Bet Victor🎯	2.70I 37.04%NM 34.15%EV -1.35%E -0.499%K -0.792%G +0.000%	1.40I 71.43%NM 65.85%EV -11.15%E -7.97%K -27.88%G +0.000%	8.5%	2026-10-16 20:41
Pinnacle🎯	2.68I 37.31%NM 36.19%EV -2.08%E -0.775%K -1.24%G +0.000%	1.52I 65.79%NM 63.81%EV -3.54%E -2.33%K -6.80%G +0.000%	3.1%	2026-10-16 21:45
Bovada🎯	2.65I 37.74%NM 36.14%EV -3.17%E -1.20%K -1.92%G +0.000%	1.50I 66.67%NM 63.86%EV -4.81%E -3.20%K -9.61%G +0.000%	4.4%	2026-10-16 20:39
Betsson🎯	2.65I 37.74%NM 35.99%EV -3.17%E -1.20%K -1.92%G +0.000%	1.49I 67.11%NM 64.01%EV -5.44%E -3.65%K -11.11%G +0.000%	4.8%	2026-10-16 22:00
NordicBet🎯	2.65I 37.74%NM 35.99%EV -3.17%E -1.20%K -1.92%G +0.000%	1.49I 67.11%NM 64.01%EV -5.44%E -3.65%K -11.11%G +0.000%	4.8%	2026-10-16 21:59
theScore Bet🎯	2.65I 37.74%NM 35.68%EV -3.17%E -1.20%K -1.92%G +0.000%	1.47I 68.03%NM 64.32%EV -6.71%E -4.57%K -14.28%G +0.000%	5.8%	2026-10-16 21:59
GTbets🎯	2.63I 38.02%NM 36.78%EV -3.90%E -1.48%K -2.40%G +0.000%	1.53I 65.36%NM 63.22%EV -2.90%E -1.90%K -5.48%G +0.000%	3.4%	2026-10-16 16:30
1xBet🎯	2.63I 38.02%NM 36.47%EV -3.90%E -1.48%K -2.40%G +0.000%	1.51I 66.23%NM 63.53%EV -4.17%E -2.76%K -8.18%G +0.000%	4.2%	2026-10-16 22:30
Sky Bet🎯	2.63I 38.02%NM 36.32%EV -3.90%E -1.48%K -2.40%G +0.000%	1.50I 66.67%NM 63.68%EV -4.81%E -3.20%K -9.61%G +0.000%	4.7%	2026-10-16 22:49
FanDuel🎯	2.62I 38.17%NM 36.56%EV -4.27%E -1.63%K -2.64%G +0.000%	1.51I 66.23%NM 63.44%EV -4.17%E -2.76%K -8.18%G +0.000%	4.4%	2026-10-16 22:40
Unibet🎯	2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -5.00%E -1.92%K -3.13%G +0.000%	1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -4.81%E -3.20%K -9.61%G +0.000%	5.1%	2026-10-16 22:00
Unibet (NL)🎯	2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -5.00%E -1.92%K -3.13%G +0.000%	1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -4.81%E -3.20%K -9.61%G +0.000%	5.1%	2026-10-16 21:59
Virgin Bet🎯	2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -5.00%E -1.92%K -3.13%G +0.000%	1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -4.81%E -3.20%K -9.61%G +0.000%	5.1%	2026-10-16 22:00
LiveScore Bet🎯	2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -5.00%E -1.92%K -3.13%G +0.000%	1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -4.81%E -3.20%K -9.61%G +0.000%	5.1%	2026-10-16 21:59
LeoVegas (SE)🎯	2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -5.00%E -1.92%K -3.13%G +0.000%	1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -4.81%E -3.20%K -9.61%G +0.000%	5.1%	2026-10-16 22:00
Casumo🎯	2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -5.00%E -1.92%K -3.13%G +0.000%	1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -4.81%E -3.20%K -9.61%G +0.000%	5.1%	2026-10-16 22:00
TABtouch🎯	2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -5.00%E -1.92%K -3.13%G +0.000%	1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -4.81%E -3.20%K -9.61%G +0.000%	5.1%	2026-10-16 22:00
Grosvenor🎯	2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -5.00%E -1.92%K -3.13%G +0.000%	1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -4.81%E -3.20%K -9.61%G +0.000%	5.1%	2026-10-16 21:59
Unibet (SE)🎯	2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -5.00%E -1.92%K -3.13%G +0.000%	1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -4.81%E -3.20%K -9.61%G +0.000%	5.1%	2026-10-16 22:00
BetRivers🎯	2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -5.00%E -1.92%K -3.13%G +0.000%	1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -4.81%E -3.20%K -9.61%G +0.000%	5.1%	2026-10-16 22:00
Coolbet🎯	2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -5.00%E -1.92%K -3.13%G +0.000%	1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -4.81%E -3.20%K -9.61%G +0.000%	5.1%	2026-10-16 22:25
SportsBet🎯	2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -5.00%E -1.92%K -3.13%G +0.000%	1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -4.81%E -3.20%K -9.61%G +0.000%	5.1%	2026-10-16 22:39
betPARX🎯	2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -5.00%E -1.92%K -3.13%G +0.000%	1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -4.81%E -3.20%K -9.61%G +0.000%	5.1%	2026-10-16 22:00
Bally Bet🎯	2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -5.00%E -1.92%K -3.13%G +0.000%	1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -4.81%E -3.20%K -9.61%G +0.000%	5.1%	2026-10-16 22:09
ATG (SE)🎯	2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -5.00%E -1.92%K -3.13%G +0.000%	1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -4.81%E -3.20%K -9.61%G +0.000%	5.1%	2026-10-16 22:00
Svenska Spel🎯	2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -5.00%E -1.92%K -3.13%G +0.000%	1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -4.81%E -3.20%K -9.61%G +0.000%	5.1%	2026-10-16 22:00
Hard Rock Bet🎯	2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -5.00%E -1.92%K -3.13%G +0.000%	1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -4.81%E -3.20%K -9.61%G +0.000%	5.1%	2026-10-16 22:00
Paddy Power🎯	2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -5.00%E -1.92%K -3.13%G +0.000%	1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -4.81%E -3.20%K -9.61%G +0.000%	5.1%	2026-10-16 22:40
Fanatics🎯	2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -5.00%E -1.92%K -3.13%G +0.000%	1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -4.81%E -3.20%K -9.61%G +0.000%	5.1%	2026-10-16 21:30
BetMGM🎯	2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -5.00%E -1.92%K -3.13%G +0.000%	1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -4.81%E -3.20%K -9.61%G +0.000%	5.1%	2026-10-16 13:20
Marathon Bet🎯	2.60I 38.46%NM 36.43%EV -5.00%E -1.92%K -3.13%G +0.000%	1.49I 67.11%NM 63.57%EV -5.44%E -3.65%K -11.11%G +0.000%	5.6%	2026-10-16 22:25
Winamax (DE)🎯	2.60I 38.46%NM 36.43%EV -5.00%E -1.92%K -3.13%G +0.000%	1.49I 67.11%NM 63.57%EV -5.44%E -3.65%K -11.11%G +0.000%	5.6%	2026-10-16 21:29
Unibet (UK)🎯	2.60I 38.46%NM 36.27%EV -5.00%E -1.92%K -3.13%G +0.000%	1.48I 67.57%NM 63.73%EV -6.08%E -4.11%K -12.66%G +0.000%	6.0%	2026-10-16 21:59
PointsBet (AU)🎯	2.60I 38.46%NM 36.27%EV -5.00%E -1.92%K -3.13%G +0.000%	1.48I 67.57%NM 63.73%EV -6.08%E -4.11%K -12.66%G +0.000%	6.0%	2026-10-16 22:00
Tipico (DE)🎯	2.60I 38.46%NM 36.12%EV -5.00%E -1.92%K -3.13%G +0.000%	1.47I 68.03%NM 63.88%EV -6.71%E -4.57%K -14.28%G +0.000%	6.5%	2026-10-16 16:00
DraftKings🎯	2.59I 38.61%NM 36.83%EV -5.37%E -2.07%K -3.37%G +0.000%	1.51I 66.23%NM 63.17%EV -4.17%E -2.76%K -8.18%G +0.000%	4.8%	2026-10-16 13:55
Bet Right🎯	2.58I 38.76%NM 36.92%EV -5.73%E -2.22%K -3.63%G +0.000%	1.51I 66.23%NM 63.08%EV -4.17%E -2.76%K -8.18%G +0.000%	5.0%	2026-10-16 20:40
BetOnline.ag🎯	2.57I 38.91%NM 37.77%EV -6.10%E -2.37%K -3.88%G +0.000%	1.56I 64.10%NM 62.23%EV -1.000%E -0.641%K -1.79%G +0.000%	3.0%	2026-10-16 16:55
LowVig.ag🎯	2.57I 38.91%NM 37.77%EV -6.10%E -2.37%K -3.88%G +0.000%	1.56I 64.10%NM 62.23%EV -1.000%E -0.641%K -1.79%G +0.000%	3.0%	2026-10-16 16:55
BetAnything🎯	2.55I 39.22%NM 37.96%EV -6.83%E -2.68%K -4.40%G +0.000%	1.56I 64.10%NM 62.04%EV -1.000%E -0.641%K -1.79%G +0.000%	3.3%	2026-10-16 18:50
Betr (AU)🎯	2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV -6.83%E -2.68%K -4.40%G +0.000%	1.50I 66.67%NM 62.96%EV -4.81%E -3.20%K -9.61%G +0.000%	5.9%	2026-10-16 22:10
PlayUp🎯	2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV -6.83%E -2.68%K -4.40%G +0.000%	1.50I 66.67%NM 62.96%EV -4.81%E -3.20%K -9.61%G +0.000%	5.9%	2026-10-16 21:09
Fliff🎯	2.55I 39.22%NM 36.72%EV -6.83%E -2.68%K -4.40%G +0.000%	1.48I 67.57%NM 63.28%EV -6.08%E -4.11%K -12.66%G +0.000%	6.8%	2026-10-16 22:00
ReBet🎯	2.53I 39.53%NM 36.59%EV -7.56%E -2.99%K -4.94%G +0.000%	1.46I 68.49%NM 63.41%EV -7.35%E -5.03%K -15.97%G +0.000%	8.0%	2026-10-16 22:00
BoyleSports🎯	2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -8.65%E -3.46%K -5.77%G +0.000%	1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -2.90%E -1.90%K -5.48%G +0.000%	5.4%	2026-10-16 13:14
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯	2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -8.65%E -3.46%K -5.77%G +0.000%	1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -2.90%E -1.90%K -5.48%G +0.000%	5.4%	2026-10-16 14:00
William Hill🎯	2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -8.65%E -3.46%K -5.77%G +0.000%	1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -2.90%E -1.90%K -5.48%G +0.000%	5.4%	2026-10-16 13:19
888sport🎯	2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -8.65%E -3.46%K -5.77%G +0.000%	1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -2.90%E -1.90%K -5.48%G +0.000%	5.4%	2026-10-16 13:20
888sport (SE)🎯	2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -8.65%E -3.46%K -5.77%G +0.000%	1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -2.90%E -1.90%K -5.48%G +0.000%	5.4%	2026-10-16 13:55
Mr Green (SE)🎯	2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -8.65%E -3.46%K -5.77%G +0.000%	1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -2.90%E -1.90%K -5.48%G +0.000%	5.4%	2026-10-16 13:55
Neds🎯	2.50I 40.00%NM 37.81%EV -8.65%E -3.46%K -5.77%G +0.000%	1.52I 65.79%NM 62.19%EV -3.54%E -2.33%K -6.80%G +0.000%	5.8%	2026-10-16 13:20
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯	2.50I 40.00%NM 37.81%EV -8.65%E -3.46%K -5.77%G +0.000%	1.52I 65.79%NM 62.19%EV -3.54%E -2.33%K -6.80%G +0.000%	5.8%	2026-10-16 13:20
Coral🎯	2.50I 40.00%NM 37.19%EV -8.65%E -3.46%K -5.77%G +0.000%	1.48I 67.57%NM 62.81%EV -6.08%E -4.11%K -12.66%G +0.000%	7.6%	2026-10-16 13:19
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯	2.50I 40.00%NM 37.19%EV -8.65%E -3.46%K -5.77%G +0.000%	1.48I 67.57%NM 62.81%EV -6.08%E -4.11%K -12.66%G +0.000%	7.6%	2026-10-16 13:15
picklebet_au🎯	2.50I 40.00%NM 37.03%EV -8.65%E -3.46%K -5.77%G +0.000%	1.47I 68.03%NM 62.97%EV -6.71%E -4.57%K -14.28%G +0.000%	8.0%	2026-10-16 21:30
LeoVegas🎯	2.50I 40.00%NM 37.03%EV -8.65%E -3.46%K -5.77%G +0.000%	1.47I 68.03%NM 62.97%EV -6.71%E -4.57%K -14.28%G +0.000%	8.0%	2026-10-16 20:10
Unibet (FR)🎯	2.45I 40.82%NM 37.50%EV -10.48%E -4.28%K -7.23%G +0.000%	1.47I 68.03%NM 62.50%EV -6.71%E -4.57%K -14.28%G +0.000%	8.8%	2026-10-16 21:14
PMU (FR)🎯	2.45I 40.82%NM 37.02%EV -10.48%E -4.28%K -7.23%G +0.000%	1.44I 69.44%NM 62.98%EV -8.62%E -5.98%K -19.58%G +0.000%	10.3%	2026-10-16 22:00
Winamax (FR)🎯	2.45I 40.82%NM 37.02%EV -10.48%E -4.28%K -7.23%G +0.000%	1.44I 69.44%NM 62.98%EV -8.62%E -5.98%K -19.58%G +0.000%	10.3%	2026-10-16 22:00
Betway🎯	2.40I 41.67%NM 39.24%EV -12.31%E -5.13%K -8.79%G +0.000%	1.55I 64.52%NM 60.76%EV -1.63%E -1.05%K -2.97%G +0.000%	6.2%	2026-10-16 21:45

Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (7)

Corredor	Local	Visitante	Margen ▲	Actualizado
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎	2.74I 36.50%NM 36.28%	1.56I 64.10%NM 63.72%	0.6%	2026-10-16 21:00
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎	2.74I 36.50%NM 36.28%	1.56I 64.10%NM 63.72%	0.6%	2026-10-16 21:00
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎	2.74I 36.50%NM 36.28%	1.56I 64.10%NM 63.72%	0.6%	2026-10-16 21:00
Matchbook◎	2.74I 36.50%NM 36.28%	1.56I 64.10%NM 63.72%	0.6%	2026-10-16 20:55
ProphetX◎	2.76I 36.23%NM 35.96%	1.55I 64.52%NM 64.04%	0.7%	2026-10-16 22:30
Novig◎	2.67I 37.45%NM 36.88%	1.56I 64.10%NM 63.12%	1.6%	2026-10-16 21:50
Smarkets◎	2.68I 37.31%NM 36.49%	1.54I 64.94%NM 63.51%	2.2%	2026-10-16 22:50