Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Learner Tien v Casper Ruud

2026-10-12 04:00 UTC — ATP Shanghai Masters

Resultado del partido

55 corredores (15 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Learner Tien (Local)

Predicción 55.81%1.79momio equitativo
EV -2.89%
Ventaja -1.66%
Kelly -3.91%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.74

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
54.38%55.77%55.84%58.97%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.601.691.701.7462.50%59.27%58.82%57.47%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Casper Ruud (Visitante)

Predicción 44.19%2.26momio equitativo
EV +1.64%
Ventaja +0.713%
Kelly +1.26%
Crecimiento +0.021%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.30

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
41.03%44.23%44.16%45.62%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.002.142.152.3050.00%46.78%46.51%43.48%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Para Resultado del partido, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estima estas probabilidades: Learner Tien (Local): 55.81%; Casper Ruud (Visitante): 44.19%. Para Casper Ruud (Visitante), esa estimación equivale a momios decimales justos de 2.26. 1 corredor ofrece momios superiores a ese nivel; los mejores momios disponibles son 2.30, lo que produce un valor esperado positivo de +1.64%.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (55 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitante ▼MargenActualizado
PlayUp🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 58.97%EV -10.71%E -6.69%K -17.84%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.03%EV +1.64%E +0.713%K +1.26%G +0.021%6.0%2026-10-10 18:45
Pinnacle🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 56.93%EV -4.57%E -2.67%K -6.43%G +0.000%2.26I 44.25%NM 43.07%EV -0.127%E -0.056%K -0.101%G +0.000%2.7%2026-10-10 18:55
BetOnline.ag🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 56.27%EV -4.57%E -2.67%K -6.43%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.73%EV -2.78%E -1.26%K -2.32%G +0.000%3.9%2026-10-10 18:10
LowVig.ag🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 56.27%EV -4.57%E -2.67%K -6.43%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.73%EV -2.78%E -1.26%K -2.32%G +0.000%3.9%2026-10-10 18:05
Bovada🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 56.56%EV -5.68%E -3.36%K -8.24%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.44%EV -2.78%E -1.26%K -2.32%G +0.000%4.6%2026-10-10 18:58
888sport🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -6.80%E -4.07%K -10.15%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -2.78%E -1.26%K -2.32%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-10 18:45
William Hill🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -6.80%E -4.07%K -10.15%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -2.78%E -1.26%K -2.32%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-10 18:45
Sky Bet🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -6.80%E -4.07%K -10.15%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -2.78%E -1.26%K -2.32%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-10 18:50
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -6.80%E -4.07%K -10.15%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -2.78%E -1.26%K -2.32%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-10 18:45
888sport (SE)🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -6.80%E -4.07%K -10.15%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -2.78%E -1.26%K -2.32%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-10 18:45
FanDuel🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 56.19%EV -5.13%E -3.02%K -7.32%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 43.81%EV -3.66%E -1.68%K -3.10%G +0.000%4.7%2026-10-10 18:45
Bet Right🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 56.48%EV -6.24%E -3.72%K -9.18%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 43.52%EV -3.66%E -1.68%K -3.10%G +0.000%5.4%2026-10-10 20:20
1xBet🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 55.78%EV -4.01%E -2.33%K -5.57%G +0.000%2.17I 46.08%NM 44.22%EV -4.10%E -1.89%K -3.51%G +0.000%4.2%2026-10-10 19:00
Betsson🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 56.07%EV -5.13%E -3.02%K -7.32%G +0.000%2.17I 46.08%NM 43.93%EV -4.10%E -1.89%K -3.51%G +0.000%4.9%2026-10-10 18:45
NordicBet🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 56.07%EV -5.13%E -3.02%K -7.32%G +0.000%2.17I 46.08%NM 43.93%EV -4.10%E -1.89%K -3.51%G +0.000%4.9%2026-10-10 18:46
BetRivers🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%EV -5.13%E -3.02%K -7.32%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -4.99%E -2.32%K -4.34%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-10 16:50
Unibet (SE)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%EV -5.13%E -3.02%K -7.32%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -4.99%E -2.32%K -4.34%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-10 16:50
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%EV -5.13%E -3.02%K -7.32%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -4.99%E -2.32%K -4.34%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-10 16:50
Unibet (NL)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%EV -5.13%E -3.02%K -7.32%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -4.99%E -2.32%K -4.34%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-10 16:50
Grosvenor🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%EV -5.13%E -3.02%K -7.32%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -4.99%E -2.32%K -4.34%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-10 16:50
TABtouch🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%EV -5.13%E -3.02%K -7.32%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -4.99%E -2.32%K -4.34%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-10 16:50
Unibet🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%EV -5.13%E -3.02%K -7.32%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -4.99%E -2.32%K -4.34%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-10 16:50
LiveScore Bet🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%EV -5.13%E -3.02%K -7.32%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -4.99%E -2.32%K -4.34%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-10 16:49
Virgin Bet🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%EV -5.13%E -3.02%K -7.32%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -4.99%E -2.32%K -4.34%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-10 16:50
Casumo🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%EV -5.13%E -3.02%K -7.32%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -4.99%E -2.32%K -4.34%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-10 16:50
betPARX🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%EV -5.13%E -3.02%K -7.32%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -4.99%E -2.32%K -4.34%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-10 16:49
Svenska Spel🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%EV -5.13%E -3.02%K -7.32%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -4.99%E -2.32%K -4.34%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-10 16:50
ATG (SE)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%EV -5.13%E -3.02%K -7.32%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -4.99%E -2.32%K -4.34%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-10 16:50
Bally Bet🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%EV -5.13%E -3.02%K -7.32%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -4.99%E -2.32%K -4.34%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-10 16:50
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 55.99%EV -5.68%E -3.36%K -8.24%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.01%EV -4.99%E -2.32%K -4.34%G +0.000%5.7%2026-10-10 18:45
Fanatics🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 55.99%EV -5.68%E -3.36%K -8.24%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.01%EV -4.99%E -2.32%K -4.34%G +0.000%5.7%2026-10-10 18:45
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 55.99%EV -5.68%E -3.36%K -8.24%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.01%EV -4.99%E -2.32%K -4.34%G +0.000%5.7%2026-10-10 17:30
Betr (AU)🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 56.14%EV -6.24%E -3.72%K -9.18%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.86%EV -4.99%E -2.32%K -4.34%G +0.000%6.0%2026-10-10 19:15
Winamax (DE)🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 56.14%EV -6.24%E -3.72%K -9.18%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.86%EV -4.99%E -2.32%K -4.34%G +0.000%6.0%2026-10-10 18:45
SportsBet🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 56.58%EV -7.92%E -4.80%K -12.18%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.42%EV -4.99%E -2.32%K -4.34%G +0.000%7.1%2026-10-10 18:45
GTbets🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 55.21%EV -4.01%E -2.33%K -5.57%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 44.79%EV -6.31%E -2.98%K -5.64%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-10 16:35
DraftKings🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 54.81%EV -2.89%E -1.66%K -3.91%G +0.000%2.11I 47.39%NM 45.19%EV -6.76%E -3.20%K -6.09%G +0.000%4.9%2026-10-10 18:45
Unibet (UK)🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 55.82%EV -6.80%E -4.07%K -10.15%G +0.000%2.11I 47.39%NM 44.18%EV -6.76%E -3.20%K -6.09%G +0.000%7.3%2026-10-10 18:45
Betway🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -3.45%E -2.00%K -4.73%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -7.20%E -3.43%K -6.54%G +0.000%5.4%2026-10-10 18:40
BetAnything🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 55.12%EV -4.57%E -2.67%K -6.43%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.88%EV -7.20%E -3.43%K -6.54%G +0.000%6.1%2026-10-10 18:45
Coral🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.26%EV -5.13%E -3.02%K -7.32%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.74%EV -7.20%E -3.43%K -6.54%G +0.000%6.4%2026-10-10 18:40
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.26%EV -5.13%E -3.02%K -7.32%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.74%EV -7.20%E -3.43%K -6.54%G +0.000%6.4%2026-10-10 18:40
theScore Bet🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 55.41%EV -5.68%E -3.36%K -8.24%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.59%EV -7.20%E -3.43%K -6.54%G +0.000%6.8%2026-10-10 18:40
BetMGM🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 55.41%EV -5.68%E -3.36%K -8.24%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.59%EV -7.20%E -3.43%K -6.54%G +0.000%6.8%2026-10-10 18:40
Paddy Power🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 55.70%EV -6.80%E -4.07%K -10.15%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.30%EV -7.20%E -3.43%K -6.54%G +0.000%7.5%2026-10-10 18:45
Fliff🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 55.70%EV -6.80%E -4.07%K -10.15%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.30%EV -7.20%E -3.43%K -6.54%G +0.000%7.5%2026-10-10 18:45
LeoVegas🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 56.00%EV -7.92%E -4.80%K -12.18%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.00%EV -7.20%E -3.43%K -6.54%G +0.000%8.2%2026-10-10 18:45
Neds🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 54.38%EV -4.01%E -2.33%K -5.57%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.62%EV -9.41%E -4.59%K -8.96%G +0.000%6.9%2026-10-10 18:40
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 54.38%EV -4.01%E -2.33%K -5.57%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.62%EV -9.41%E -4.59%K -8.96%G +0.000%6.9%2026-10-10 18:40
betano_uk🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 54.67%EV -5.13%E -3.02%K -7.32%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.33%EV -9.41%E -4.59%K -8.96%G +0.000%7.6%2026-10-10 17:40
Bet Victor🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 54.67%EV -5.13%E -3.02%K -7.32%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.33%EV -9.41%E -4.59%K -8.96%G +0.000%7.6%2026-10-10 17:43
ReBet🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 55.71%EV -9.03%E -5.54%K -14.34%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 44.29%EV -9.41%E -4.59%K -8.96%G +0.000%10.1%2026-10-10 18:45
PMU (FR)🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 55.71%EV -9.03%E -5.54%K -14.34%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 44.29%EV -9.41%E -4.59%K -8.96%G +0.000%10.1%2026-10-10 16:50
Unibet (FR)🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 55.40%EV -10.15%E -6.30%K -16.64%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 44.60%EV -11.62%E -5.81%K -11.62%G +0.000%12.1%2026-10-10 18:45
Winamax (FR)🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 55.56%EV -10.71%E -6.69%K -17.84%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 44.44%EV -11.62%E -5.81%K -11.62%G +0.000%12.5%2026-10-10 18:45
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (6)

CorredorLocalVisitanteMargen ▲Actualizado
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.72I 58.14%NM 57.64%2.34I 42.74%NM 42.36%0.9%2026-10-10 20:20
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.72I 58.14%NM 57.64%2.34I 42.74%NM 42.36%0.9%2026-10-10 20:20
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.72I 58.14%NM 57.64%2.34I 42.74%NM 42.36%0.9%2026-10-10 20:20
Matchbook◎1.70I 58.82%NM 57.29%2.28I 43.86%NM 42.71%2.7%2026-10-10 20:05
ProphetX◎1.70I 58.82%NM 57.18%2.27I 44.05%NM 42.82%2.9%2026-10-10 20:55
Smarkets◎1.61I 62.11%NM 56.60%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.40%9.7%2026-10-10 20:55