Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Jiri Lehecka v Rafael Jodar

2026-10-12 04:00 UTC — ATP Shanghai Masters

Resultado del partido

56 corredores (16 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Jiri Lehecka (Local)

Predicción 54.43%1.84momio equitativo
EV -3.65%
Ventaja -2.06%
Kelly -4.75%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.77

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
53.58%54.49%54.42%55.47%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.651.721.721.7760.61%57.97%58.14%56.50%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Rafael Jodar (Visitante)

Predicción 45.57%2.19momio equitativo
EV -0.663%
Ventaja -0.304%
Kelly -0.562%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.18

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
44.53%45.51%45.58%46.42%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.952.082.102.1851.28%48.13%47.62%45.87%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Para Resultado del partido, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estima estas probabilidades: Jiri Lehecka (Local): 54.43%; Rafael Jodar (Visitante): 45.57%. Para Rafael Jodar (Visitante), esa estimación equivale a momios decimales justos de 2.19. Ningún corredor elegible ofrece momios superiores a ese nivel: los mejores momios disponibles son 2.18, con un valor esperado de -0.663%; no producen valor esperado positivo.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (56 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocal ▼VisitanteMargenActualizado
Bovada🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 54.26%EV -3.65%E -2.06%K -4.75%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.74%EV -4.31%E -2.05%K -3.92%G +0.000%4.1%2026-10-10 15:54
DraftKings🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 53.91%EV -3.65%E -2.06%K -4.75%G +0.000%2.07I 48.31%NM 46.09%EV -5.68%E -2.74%K -5.30%G +0.000%4.8%2026-10-10 15:30
FanDuel🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 54.40%EV -4.20%E -2.39%K -5.52%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.60%EV -4.31%E -2.05%K -3.92%G +0.000%4.4%2026-10-10 16:35
Pinnacle🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 55.47%EV -4.74%E -2.71%K -6.32%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 44.53%EV -0.663%E -0.304%K -0.562%G +0.000%3.0%2026-10-10 19:30
LowVig.ag🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 55.01%EV -4.74%E -2.71%K -6.32%G +0.000%2.14I 46.73%NM 44.99%EV -2.49%E -1.16%K -2.18%G +0.000%3.9%2026-10-10 16:21
BetOnline.ag🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 55.01%EV -4.74%E -2.71%K -6.32%G +0.000%2.14I 46.73%NM 44.99%EV -2.49%E -1.16%K -2.18%G +0.000%3.9%2026-10-10 16:25
1xBet🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 54.78%EV -4.74%E -2.71%K -6.32%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 45.22%EV -3.40%E -1.60%K -3.03%G +0.000%4.3%2026-10-10 20:10
GTbets🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 54.43%EV -4.74%E -2.71%K -6.32%G +0.000%2.09I 47.85%NM 45.57%EV -4.76%E -2.28%K -4.37%G +0.000%5.0%2026-10-10 15:50
Betsson🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 54.43%EV -4.74%E -2.71%K -6.32%G +0.000%2.09I 47.85%NM 45.57%EV -4.76%E -2.28%K -4.37%G +0.000%5.0%2026-10-10 15:55
NordicBet🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 54.43%EV -4.74%E -2.71%K -6.32%G +0.000%2.09I 47.85%NM 45.57%EV -4.76%E -2.28%K -4.37%G +0.000%5.0%2026-10-10 15:55
PlayUp🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 53.95%EV -4.74%E -2.71%K -6.32%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.05%EV -6.59%E -3.21%K -6.27%G +0.000%5.9%2026-10-10 19:35
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 53.58%EV -4.74%E -2.71%K -6.32%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 46.42%EV -7.95%E -3.94%K -7.80%G +0.000%6.6%2026-10-10 15:35
Neds🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 53.58%EV -4.74%E -2.71%K -6.32%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 46.42%EV -7.95%E -3.94%K -7.80%G +0.000%6.6%2026-10-10 15:35
Fanatics🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 54.09%EV -5.29%E -3.04%K -7.15%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.91%EV -6.59%E -3.21%K -6.27%G +0.000%6.3%2026-10-10 15:35
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 54.09%EV -5.29%E -3.04%K -7.15%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.91%EV -6.59%E -3.21%K -6.27%G +0.000%6.3%2026-10-10 15:35
Winamax (DE)🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 54.09%EV -5.29%E -3.04%K -7.15%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.91%EV -6.59%E -3.21%K -6.27%G +0.000%6.3%2026-10-10 15:55
BetMGM🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 54.09%EV -5.29%E -3.04%K -7.15%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.91%EV -6.59%E -3.21%K -6.27%G +0.000%6.3%2026-10-10 15:35
BetAnything🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 54.09%EV -5.29%E -3.04%K -7.15%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.91%EV -6.59%E -3.21%K -6.27%G +0.000%6.3%2026-10-10 18:24
Betway🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -5.83%E -3.37%K -7.99%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -4.31%E -2.05%K -3.92%G +0.000%5.4%2026-10-10 18:15
Sky Bet🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -5.83%E -3.37%K -7.99%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -4.31%E -2.05%K -3.92%G +0.000%5.4%2026-10-10 16:45
888sport🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -5.83%E -3.37%K -7.99%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -4.31%E -2.05%K -3.92%G +0.000%5.4%2026-10-10 15:35
William Hill🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -5.83%E -3.37%K -7.99%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -4.31%E -2.05%K -3.92%G +0.000%5.4%2026-10-10 15:35
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -5.83%E -3.37%K -7.99%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -4.31%E -2.05%K -3.92%G +0.000%5.4%2026-10-10 16:50
888sport (SE)🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -5.83%E -3.37%K -7.99%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -4.31%E -2.05%K -3.92%G +0.000%5.4%2026-10-10 16:55
Paddy Power🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 53.62%EV -5.83%E -3.37%K -7.99%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.38%EV -8.86%E -4.43%K -8.86%G +0.000%7.8%2026-10-10 16:35
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 53.62%EV -5.83%E -3.37%K -7.99%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.38%EV -8.86%E -4.43%K -8.86%G +0.000%7.8%2026-10-10 15:35
Coral🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 53.62%EV -5.83%E -3.37%K -7.99%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.38%EV -8.86%E -4.43%K -8.86%G +0.000%7.8%2026-10-10 15:40
Bet Right🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 55.21%EV -6.38%E -3.71%K -8.86%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 44.79%EV -3.40%E -1.60%K -3.03%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-10 19:31
TABtouch🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 55.21%EV -6.38%E -3.71%K -8.86%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 44.79%EV -3.40%E -1.60%K -3.03%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-10 16:40
Unibet🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 55.21%EV -6.38%E -3.71%K -8.86%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 44.79%EV -3.40%E -1.60%K -3.03%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-10 16:40
Grosvenor🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 55.21%EV -6.38%E -3.71%K -8.86%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 44.79%EV -3.40%E -1.60%K -3.03%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-10 16:40
LiveScore Bet🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 55.21%EV -6.38%E -3.71%K -8.86%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 44.79%EV -3.40%E -1.60%K -3.03%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-10 16:40
Virgin Bet🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 55.21%EV -6.38%E -3.71%K -8.86%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 44.79%EV -3.40%E -1.60%K -3.03%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-10 16:40
Casumo🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 55.21%EV -6.38%E -3.71%K -8.86%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 44.79%EV -3.40%E -1.60%K -3.03%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-10 16:40
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 55.21%EV -6.38%E -3.71%K -8.86%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 44.79%EV -3.40%E -1.60%K -3.03%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-10 16:40
Unibet (SE)🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 55.21%EV -6.38%E -3.71%K -8.86%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 44.79%EV -3.40%E -1.60%K -3.03%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-10 16:40
Unibet (NL)🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 55.21%EV -6.38%E -3.71%K -8.86%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 44.79%EV -3.40%E -1.60%K -3.03%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-10 16:40
BetRivers🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 55.21%EV -6.38%E -3.71%K -8.86%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 44.79%EV -3.40%E -1.60%K -3.03%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-10 16:40
Bally Bet🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 55.21%EV -6.38%E -3.71%K -8.86%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 44.79%EV -3.40%E -1.60%K -3.03%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-10 16:40
ATG (SE)🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 55.21%EV -6.38%E -3.71%K -8.86%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 44.79%EV -3.40%E -1.60%K -3.03%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-10 16:40
Svenska Spel🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 55.21%EV -6.38%E -3.71%K -8.86%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 44.79%EV -3.40%E -1.60%K -3.03%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-10 16:40
betPARX🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 55.21%EV -6.38%E -3.71%K -8.86%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 44.79%EV -3.40%E -1.60%K -3.03%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-10 16:44
Unibet (UK)🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 54.38%EV -6.38%E -3.71%K -8.86%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.62%EV -6.59%E -3.21%K -6.27%G +0.000%6.9%2026-10-10 15:55
Tipico (DE)🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 53.76%EV -6.38%E -3.71%K -8.86%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.24%EV -8.86%E -4.43%K -8.86%G +0.000%8.1%2026-10-10 19:00
Betr (AU)🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 55.12%EV -6.92%E -4.05%K -9.75%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.88%EV -4.31%E -2.05%K -3.92%G +0.000%6.1%2026-10-10 19:30
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 55.12%EV -6.92%E -4.05%K -9.75%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.88%EV -4.31%E -2.05%K -3.92%G +0.000%6.1%2026-10-10 17:30
SportsBet🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 54.76%EV -6.92%E -4.05%K -9.75%G +0.000%2.07I 48.31%NM 45.24%EV -5.68%E -2.74%K -5.30%G +0.000%6.8%2026-10-10 16:35
theScore Bet🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 54.52%EV -6.92%E -4.05%K -9.75%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.48%EV -6.59%E -3.21%K -6.27%G +0.000%7.3%2026-10-10 15:55
Fliff🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 54.52%EV -6.92%E -4.05%K -9.75%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.48%EV -6.59%E -3.21%K -6.27%G +0.000%7.3%2026-10-10 16:45
Bet Victor🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 54.67%EV -7.46%E -4.39%K -10.66%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.33%EV -6.59%E -3.21%K -6.27%G +0.000%7.6%2026-10-10 16:22
betano_uk🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 54.67%EV -7.46%E -4.39%K -10.66%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.33%EV -6.59%E -3.21%K -6.27%G +0.000%7.6%2026-10-10 16:25
LeoVegas🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 54.30%EV -7.46%E -4.39%K -10.66%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 45.70%EV -7.95%E -3.94%K -7.80%G +0.000%8.3%2026-10-10 15:55
ReBet🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 54.22%EV -8.55%E -5.09%K -12.58%G +0.000%1.99I 50.25%NM 45.78%EV -9.32%E -4.68%K -9.41%G +0.000%9.8%2026-10-10 15:55
Winamax (FR)🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 54.14%EV -9.64%E -5.81%K -14.61%G +0.000%1.96I 51.02%NM 45.86%EV -10.69%E -5.45%K -11.13%G +0.000%11.3%2026-10-10 15:55
PMU (FR)🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 55.28%EV -10.19%E -6.17%K -15.67%G +0.000%2.04I 49.02%NM 44.72%EV -7.04%E -3.45%K -6.77%G +0.000%9.6%2026-10-10 16:40
Unibet (FR)🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 54.17%EV -10.19%E -6.17%K -15.67%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 45.83%EV -11.14%E -5.71%K -11.73%G +0.000%11.9%2026-10-10 15:55
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (6)

CorredorLocalVisitanteMargen ▲Actualizado
Novig◎1.80I 55.56%NM 55.22%2.22I 45.05%NM 44.78%0.6%2026-10-10 20:35
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.76I 56.82%NM 56.44%2.28I 43.86%NM 43.56%0.7%2026-10-10 20:10
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.76I 56.82%NM 56.44%2.28I 43.86%NM 43.56%0.7%2026-10-10 20:10
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.75I 57.14%NM 56.58%2.28I 43.86%NM 43.42%1.0%2026-10-10 20:10
ProphetX◎1.74I 57.47%NM 56.39%2.25I 44.44%NM 43.61%1.9%2026-10-10 20:50
Matchbook◎1.74I 57.47%NM 55.61%2.18I 45.87%NM 44.39%3.3%2026-10-10 19:25