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Arthur Gea v Jakub Mensik
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Arthur Gea (Local)
Prediction 39.01%2.56fair odd
EV +1.43%
Edge +0.551%
Kelly +0.896%
Growth +0.013%
assuming max odds 2.60
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
36.59%38.79%39.10%42.11%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.202.432.432.6045.45%41.19%41.15%38.46%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Jakub Mensik (Visit)
Prediction 60.99%1.64fair odd
EV -1.81%
Edge -1.12%
Kelly -2.97%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.61
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
57.89%61.21%60.90%63.41%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.501.561.561.6166.67%64.23%64.10%62.11%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Arthur Gea (Local): 39.01%; Jakub Mensik (Visit): 60.99%. For Arthur Gea (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.56. 5 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.60, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.43%.
Sportsbook Odds (60 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.89%EV +1.43%E +0.551%K +0.896%G +0.013% | 1.52I 65.79%NM 63.11%EV -7.30%E -4.80%K -14.04%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-10-13 04:54 |
| Bovada🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.74%EV +1.43%E +0.551%K +0.896%G +0.013% | 1.51I 66.23%NM 63.26%EV -7.91%E -5.24%K -15.51%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-10-13 05:40 |
| Betway🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV +1.43%E +0.551%K +0.896%G +0.013% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -8.52%E -5.68%K -17.04%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-10-13 05:39 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 2.57I 38.91%NM 37.16%EV +0.263%E +0.102%K +0.167%G +0.000% | 1.52I 65.79%NM 62.84%EV -7.30%E -4.80%K -14.04%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-10-13 04:04 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 2.57I 38.91%NM 36.86%EV +0.263%E +0.102%K +0.167%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.14%EV -8.52%E -5.68%K -17.04%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-10-13 04:29 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 2.52I 39.68%NM 38.54%EV -1.69%E -0.670%K -1.11%G +0.000% | 1.58I 63.29%NM 61.46%EV -3.64%E -2.30%K -6.28%G +0.000% | 3.0% | 2026-10-13 05:15 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 2.52I 39.68%NM 38.39%EV -1.69%E -0.670%K -1.11%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 61.61%EV -4.25%E -2.71%K -7.46%G +0.000% | 3.4% | 2026-10-13 05:04 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 2.52I 39.68%NM 38.39%EV -1.69%E -0.670%K -1.11%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 61.61%EV -4.25%E -2.71%K -7.46%G +0.000% | 3.4% | 2026-10-13 05:04 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 2.52I 39.68%NM 37.93%EV -1.69%E -0.670%K -1.11%G +0.000% | 1.54I 64.94%NM 62.07%EV -6.08%E -3.95%K -11.26%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-10-13 05:34 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 2.51I 39.84%NM 37.87%EV -2.08%E -0.828%K -1.38%G +0.000% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.13%EV -6.69%E -4.37%K -12.62%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-10-13 05:35 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -2.47%E -0.987%K -1.65%G +0.000% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -6.69%E -4.37%K -12.62%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-10-13 04:49 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -2.47%E -0.987%K -1.65%G +0.000% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -6.69%E -4.37%K -12.62%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-10-13 04:54 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -2.47%E -0.987%K -1.65%G +0.000% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -6.69%E -4.37%K -12.62%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-10-13 04:49 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 39.05%EV -4.42%E -1.80%K -3.05%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.95%EV -4.25%E -2.71%K -7.46%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-10-13 02:29 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 39.05%EV -4.42%E -1.80%K -3.05%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.95%EV -4.25%E -2.71%K -7.46%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-10-13 02:29 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 39.05%EV -4.42%E -1.80%K -3.05%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.95%EV -4.25%E -2.71%K -7.46%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-10-12 20:09 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.90%EV -4.42%E -1.80%K -3.05%G +0.000% | 1.56I 64.10%NM 61.10%EV -4.86%E -3.12%K -8.68%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-10-13 05:14 |
| TAB🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.75%EV -4.42%E -1.80%K -3.05%G +0.000% | 1.55I 64.52%NM 61.25%EV -5.47%E -3.53%K -9.94%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-10-13 05:04 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 2.43I 41.15%NM 39.25%EV -5.20%E -2.14%K -3.64%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.75%EV -4.25%E -2.71%K -7.46%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-10-13 05:15 |
| Betsson🎯 | 2.43I 41.15%NM 39.25%EV -5.20%E -2.14%K -3.64%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.75%EV -4.25%E -2.71%K -7.46%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-10-13 05:14 |
| ReBet🎯 | 2.43I 41.15%NM 39.25%EV -5.20%E -2.14%K -3.64%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.75%EV -4.25%E -2.71%K -7.46%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-10-13 04:14 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 2.43I 41.15%NM 39.25%EV -5.20%E -2.14%K -3.64%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.75%EV -4.25%E -2.71%K -7.46%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-10-12 20:10 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 2.43I 41.15%NM 39.25%EV -5.20%E -2.14%K -3.64%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.75%EV -4.25%E -2.71%K -7.46%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-10-12 20:09 |
| Unibet🎯 | 2.43I 41.15%NM 39.25%EV -5.20%E -2.14%K -3.64%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.75%EV -4.25%E -2.71%K -7.46%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-10-12 20:09 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 2.43I 41.15%NM 39.10%EV -5.20%E -2.14%K -3.64%G +0.000% | 1.56I 64.10%NM 60.90%EV -4.86%E -3.12%K -8.68%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-10-13 02:25 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 2.43I 41.15%NM 39.10%EV -5.20%E -2.14%K -3.64%G +0.000% | 1.56I 64.10%NM 60.90%EV -4.86%E -3.12%K -8.68%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-10-12 20:09 |
| Casumo🎯 | 2.43I 41.15%NM 39.10%EV -5.20%E -2.14%K -3.64%G +0.000% | 1.56I 64.10%NM 60.90%EV -4.86%E -3.12%K -8.68%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-10-12 20:09 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 2.43I 41.15%NM 39.10%EV -5.20%E -2.14%K -3.64%G +0.000% | 1.56I 64.10%NM 60.90%EV -4.86%E -3.12%K -8.68%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-10-12 20:09 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 2.43I 41.15%NM 39.10%EV -5.20%E -2.14%K -3.64%G +0.000% | 1.56I 64.10%NM 60.90%EV -4.86%E -3.12%K -8.68%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-10-12 20:09 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 2.43I 41.15%NM 39.10%EV -5.20%E -2.14%K -3.64%G +0.000% | 1.56I 64.10%NM 60.90%EV -4.86%E -3.12%K -8.68%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-10-12 20:09 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 2.43I 41.15%NM 39.10%EV -5.20%E -2.14%K -3.64%G +0.000% | 1.56I 64.10%NM 60.90%EV -4.86%E -3.12%K -8.68%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-10-12 20:09 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 2.43I 41.15%NM 39.10%EV -5.20%E -2.14%K -3.64%G +0.000% | 1.56I 64.10%NM 60.90%EV -4.86%E -3.12%K -8.68%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-10-12 20:09 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 2.43I 41.15%NM 39.10%EV -5.20%E -2.14%K -3.64%G +0.000% | 1.56I 64.10%NM 60.90%EV -4.86%E -3.12%K -8.68%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-10-12 20:09 |
| betPARX🎯 | 2.43I 41.15%NM 39.10%EV -5.20%E -2.14%K -3.64%G +0.000% | 1.56I 64.10%NM 60.90%EV -4.86%E -3.12%K -8.68%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-10-12 20:09 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 2.43I 41.15%NM 39.10%EV -5.20%E -2.14%K -3.64%G +0.000% | 1.56I 64.10%NM 60.90%EV -4.86%E -3.12%K -8.68%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-10-12 20:09 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 2.43I 41.15%NM 39.10%EV -5.20%E -2.14%K -3.64%G +0.000% | 1.56I 64.10%NM 60.90%EV -4.86%E -3.12%K -8.68%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-10-12 20:09 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 2.42I 41.32%NM 39.20%EV -5.59%E -2.31%K -3.94%G +0.000% | 1.56I 64.10%NM 60.80%EV -4.86%E -3.12%K -8.68%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-10-13 04:49 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 40.15%EV -6.37%E -2.65%K -4.55%G +0.000% | 1.61I 62.11%NM 59.85%EV -1.81%E -1.12%K -2.97%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-10-12 13:44 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 40.00%EV -6.37%E -2.65%K -4.55%G +0.000% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 60.00%EV -2.42%E -1.51%K -4.03%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-10-12 20:14 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.55%EV -6.37%E -2.65%K -4.55%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.45%EV -4.25%E -2.71%K -7.46%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-10-12 20:09 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.39%EV -6.37%E -2.65%K -4.55%G +0.000% | 1.56I 64.10%NM 60.61%EV -4.86%E -3.12%K -8.68%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-10-13 02:29 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.24%EV -6.37%E -2.65%K -4.55%G +0.000% | 1.55I 64.52%NM 60.76%EV -5.47%E -3.53%K -9.94%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-10-13 02:29 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.24%EV -6.37%E -2.65%K -4.55%G +0.000% | 1.55I 64.52%NM 60.76%EV -5.47%E -3.53%K -9.94%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-10-13 04:44 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.24%EV -6.37%E -2.65%K -4.55%G +0.000% | 1.55I 64.52%NM 60.76%EV -5.47%E -3.53%K -9.94%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-10-13 05:05 |
| Fliff🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.93%EV -6.37%E -2.65%K -4.55%G +0.000% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 61.07%EV -6.69%E -4.37%K -12.62%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-10-13 05:40 |
| GTbets🎯 | 2.38I 42.02%NM 40.20%EV -7.15%E -3.00%K -5.18%G +0.000% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 59.80%EV -2.42%E -1.51%K -4.03%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-10-12 20:14 |
| 888sport🎯 | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -7.15%E -3.00%K -5.18%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -4.25%E -2.71%K -7.46%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-10-12 20:45 |
| William Hill🎯 | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -7.15%E -3.00%K -5.18%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -4.25%E -2.71%K -7.46%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-10-12 20:45 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -7.15%E -3.00%K -5.18%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -4.25%E -2.71%K -7.46%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-10-12 20:45 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -7.15%E -3.00%K -5.18%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -4.25%E -2.71%K -7.46%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-10-12 20:44 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.13%EV -7.15%E -3.00%K -5.18%G +0.000% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 60.87%EV -6.69%E -4.37%K -12.62%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-10-12 14:19 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.20%EV -8.32%E -3.54%K -6.16%G +0.000% | 1.58I 63.29%NM 59.80%EV -3.64%E -2.30%K -6.28%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-10-12 20:09 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.05%EV -8.32%E -3.54%K -6.16%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 59.95%EV -4.25%E -2.71%K -7.46%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-10-13 03:29 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 39.28%EV -8.32%E -3.54%K -6.16%G +0.000% | 1.52I 65.79%NM 60.72%EV -7.30%E -4.80%K -14.04%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-10-12 20:09 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.72%EV -10.27%E -4.47%K -7.90%G +0.000% | 1.58I 63.29%NM 59.28%EV -3.64%E -2.30%K -6.28%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-10-13 03:24 |
| Neds🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.72%EV -10.27%E -4.47%K -7.90%G +0.000% | 1.58I 63.29%NM 59.28%EV -3.64%E -2.30%K -6.28%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-10-13 03:24 |
| Coral🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.26%EV -10.27%E -4.47%K -7.90%G +0.000% | 1.55I 64.52%NM 59.74%EV -5.47%E -3.53%K -9.94%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-10-13 03:29 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.26%EV -10.27%E -4.47%K -7.90%G +0.000% | 1.55I 64.52%NM 59.74%EV -5.47%E -3.53%K -9.94%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-10-13 03:24 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 39.47%EV -10.27%E -4.47%K -7.90%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 60.53%EV -8.52%E -5.68%K -17.04%G +0.000% | 10.1% | 2026-10-12 20:10 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.11%EV -14.17%E -6.44%K -11.81%G +0.000% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 57.89%EV -2.42%E -1.51%K -4.03%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-10-12 17:04 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (7)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Novig◎ | 2.67I 37.45%NM 37.32% | 1.59I 62.89%NM 62.68% | 0.3% | 2026-10-13 05:25 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 2.66I 37.59%NM 37.41% | 1.59I 62.89%NM 62.59% | 0.5% | 2026-10-13 05:39 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 2.66I 37.59%NM 37.41% | 1.59I 62.89%NM 62.59% | 0.5% | 2026-10-13 05:40 |
| Matchbook◎ | 2.66I 37.59%NM 37.41% | 1.59I 62.89%NM 62.59% | 0.5% | 2026-10-13 05:35 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 2.64I 37.88%NM 37.59% | 1.59I 62.89%NM 62.41% | 0.8% | 2026-10-13 05:35 |
| ProphetX◎ | 2.66I 37.59%NM 37.26% | 1.58I 63.29%NM 62.74% | 0.9% | 2026-10-13 05:40 |
| Smarkets◎ | 2.62I 38.17%NM 37.32% | 1.56I 64.10%NM 62.68% | 2.3% | 2026-10-13 05:40 |