Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Alexander Zverev v Alejandro Davidovich Fokina

Kickoff: 2026-10-17 08:37 UTC

Final: Alexander Zverev 1–2 Alejandro Davidovich Fokina

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

61 sportsbooks (18 in analysis )

77%

23%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Alexander Zverev (Local)

Prediction 76.51%1.31fair odd

EV -1.30%

Edge -1.01%

Kelly -4.50%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.29

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

73.22%76.37%76.48%79.31%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.201.241.251.2983.33%80.43%80.00%77.52%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Alejandro Davidovich Fokina (Visit)

Prediction 23.49%4.26fair odd

EV +8.06%

Edge +1.75%

Kelly +2.24%

Growth +0.181%

assuming max odds 4.60

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

20.69%23.63%23.52%26.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

3.503.984.004.6028.57%25.13%25.00%21.74%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Alexander Zverev (Local): 76.51%; Alejandro Davidovich Fokina (Visit): 23.49%. For Alejandro Davidovich Fokina (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.26. 4 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.60, corresponding to a positive expected value of +8.06%.

Sportsbook Odds (61 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

Bookmaker	Local	Visit ▼	Margin	Updated
SportsBet🎯	1.20I 83.33%NM 79.31%EV -8.19%E -6.83%K -40.95%G +0.000%	4.60I 21.74%NM 20.69%EV +8.06%E +1.75%K +2.24%G +0.181%	5.1%	2026-10-17 08:24
FanDuel🎯	1.22I 81.97%NM 78.67%EV -6.66%E -5.46%K -30.27%G +0.000%	4.50I 22.22%NM 21.33%EV +5.71%E +1.27%K +1.63%G +0.093%	4.2%	2026-10-17 08:24
Paddy Power🎯	1.20I 83.33%NM 78.95%EV -8.19%E -6.83%K -40.95%G +0.000%	4.50I 22.22%NM 21.05%EV +5.71%E +1.27%K +1.63%G +0.093%	5.6%	2026-10-17 08:24
Sky Bet🎯	1.22I 81.97%NM 78.02%EV -6.66%E -5.46%K -30.27%G +0.000%	4.33I 23.09%NM 21.98%EV +1.72%E +0.397%K +0.516%G +0.009%	5.1%	2026-10-17 06:55
Betway🎯	1.22I 81.97%NM 77.70%EV -6.66%E -5.46%K -30.27%G +0.000%	4.25I 23.53%NM 22.30%EV -0.160%E -0.038%K -0.049%G +0.000%	5.5%	2026-10-17 08:15
DraftKings🎯	1.24I 80.65%NM 77.33%EV -5.13%E -4.14%K -21.37%G +0.000%	4.23I 23.64%NM 22.67%EV -0.630%E -0.149%K -0.195%G +0.000%	4.3%	2026-10-17 08:30
Pinnacle🎯	1.27I 78.74%NM 76.87%EV -2.83%E -2.23%K -10.50%G +0.000%	4.22I 23.70%NM 23.13%EV -0.865%E -0.205%K -0.269%G +0.000%	2.4%	2026-10-17 08:20
Winamax (DE)🎯	1.25I 80.00%NM 77.06%EV -4.36%E -3.49%K -17.46%G +0.000%	4.20I 23.81%NM 22.94%EV -1.33%E -0.318%K -0.417%G +0.000%	3.8%	2026-10-17 08:30
BetAnything🎯	1.24I 80.65%NM 77.21%EV -5.13%E -4.14%K -21.37%G +0.000%	4.20I 23.81%NM 22.79%EV -1.33%E -0.318%K -0.417%G +0.000%	4.5%	2026-10-17 04:20
TAB🎯	1.23I 81.30%NM 77.35%EV -5.89%E -4.79%K -25.63%G +0.000%	4.20I 23.81%NM 22.65%EV -1.33%E -0.318%K -0.417%G +0.000%	5.1%	2026-10-17 07:30
LowVig.ag🎯	1.25I 80.00%NM 76.89%EV -4.36%E -3.49%K -17.46%G +0.000%	4.16I 24.04%NM 23.11%EV -2.27%E -0.547%K -0.720%G +0.000%	4.0%	2026-10-17 08:25
BetOnline.ag🎯	1.25I 80.00%NM 76.89%EV -4.36%E -3.49%K -17.46%G +0.000%	4.16I 24.04%NM 23.11%EV -2.27%E -0.547%K -0.720%G +0.000%	4.0%	2026-10-17 08:25
1xBet🎯	1.24I 80.65%NM 76.91%EV -5.13%E -4.14%K -21.37%G +0.000%	4.13I 24.21%NM 23.09%EV -2.98%E -0.721%K -0.952%G +0.000%	4.9%	2026-10-17 08:30
Unibet (UK)🎯	1.24I 80.65%NM 76.78%EV -5.13%E -4.14%K -21.37%G +0.000%	4.10I 24.39%NM 23.22%EV -3.68%E -0.899%K -1.19%G +0.000%	5.0%	2026-10-17 08:30
PointsBet (AU)🎯	1.22I 81.97%NM 77.07%EV -6.66%E -5.46%K -30.27%G +0.000%	4.10I 24.39%NM 22.93%EV -3.68%E -0.899%K -1.19%G +0.000%	6.4%	2026-10-17 06:45
Tipico (DE)🎯	1.22I 81.97%NM 77.07%EV -6.66%E -5.46%K -30.27%G +0.000%	4.10I 24.39%NM 22.93%EV -3.68%E -0.899%K -1.19%G +0.000%	6.4%	2026-10-17 02:10
Unibet (FR)🎯	1.21I 82.64%NM 77.21%EV -7.42%E -6.14%K -35.36%G +0.000%	4.10I 24.39%NM 22.79%EV -3.68%E -0.899%K -1.19%G +0.000%	7.0%	2026-10-17 08:05
Unibet🎯	1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -4.36%E -3.49%K -17.46%G +0.000%	4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -6.03%E -1.51%K -2.01%G +0.000%	5.0%	2026-10-17 07:20
Casumo🎯	1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -4.36%E -3.49%K -17.46%G +0.000%	4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -6.03%E -1.51%K -2.01%G +0.000%	5.0%	2026-10-17 07:15
LiveScore Bet🎯	1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -4.36%E -3.49%K -17.46%G +0.000%	4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -6.03%E -1.51%K -2.01%G +0.000%	5.0%	2026-10-17 07:15
Virgin Bet🎯	1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -4.36%E -3.49%K -17.46%G +0.000%	4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -6.03%E -1.51%K -2.01%G +0.000%	5.0%	2026-10-17 07:15
BetRivers🎯	1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -4.36%E -3.49%K -17.46%G +0.000%	4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -6.03%E -1.51%K -2.01%G +0.000%	5.0%	2026-10-17 07:15
Unibet (SE)🎯	1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -4.36%E -3.49%K -17.46%G +0.000%	4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -6.03%E -1.51%K -2.01%G +0.000%	5.0%	2026-10-17 07:15
TABtouch🎯	1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -4.36%E -3.49%K -17.46%G +0.000%	4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -6.03%E -1.51%K -2.01%G +0.000%	5.0%	2026-10-17 07:15
Unibet (NL)🎯	1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -4.36%E -3.49%K -17.46%G +0.000%	4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -6.03%E -1.51%K -2.01%G +0.000%	5.0%	2026-10-17 07:15
Grosvenor🎯	1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -4.36%E -3.49%K -17.46%G +0.000%	4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -6.03%E -1.51%K -2.01%G +0.000%	5.0%	2026-10-17 07:15
Bet Right🎯	1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -4.36%E -3.49%K -17.46%G +0.000%	4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -6.03%E -1.51%K -2.01%G +0.000%	5.0%	2026-10-16 23:35
LeoVegas (SE)🎯	1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -4.36%E -3.49%K -17.46%G +0.000%	4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -6.03%E -1.51%K -2.01%G +0.000%	5.0%	2026-10-17 07:15
betPARX🎯	1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -4.36%E -3.49%K -17.46%G +0.000%	4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -6.03%E -1.51%K -2.01%G +0.000%	5.0%	2026-10-17 07:15
Svenska Spel🎯	1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -4.36%E -3.49%K -17.46%G +0.000%	4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -6.03%E -1.51%K -2.01%G +0.000%	5.0%	2026-10-17 07:15
ATG (SE)🎯	1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -4.36%E -3.49%K -17.46%G +0.000%	4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -6.03%E -1.51%K -2.01%G +0.000%	5.0%	2026-10-17 07:15
Bally Bet🎯	1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -4.36%E -3.49%K -17.46%G +0.000%	4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -6.03%E -1.51%K -2.01%G +0.000%	5.0%	2026-10-17 07:15
Hard Rock Bet🎯	1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -4.36%E -3.49%K -17.46%G +0.000%	4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -6.03%E -1.51%K -2.01%G +0.000%	5.0%	2026-10-17 07:20
Bovada🎯	1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -4.36%E -3.49%K -17.46%G +0.000%	4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -6.03%E -1.51%K -2.01%G +0.000%	5.0%	2026-10-16 22:44
BoyleSports🎯	1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -4.36%E -3.49%K -17.46%G +0.000%	4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -6.03%E -1.51%K -2.01%G +0.000%	5.0%	2026-10-17 05:30
Winamax (FR)🎯	1.24I 80.65%NM 76.34%EV -5.13%E -4.14%K -21.37%G +0.000%	4.00I 25.00%NM 23.66%EV -6.03%E -1.51%K -2.01%G +0.000%	5.6%	2026-10-17 08:30
Fanatics🎯	1.24I 80.65%NM 76.34%EV -5.13%E -4.14%K -21.37%G +0.000%	4.00I 25.00%NM 23.66%EV -6.03%E -1.51%K -2.01%G +0.000%	5.6%	2026-10-17 08:20
picklebet_au🎯	1.22I 81.97%NM 76.63%EV -6.66%E -5.46%K -30.27%G +0.000%	4.00I 25.00%NM 23.37%EV -6.03%E -1.51%K -2.01%G +0.000%	7.0%	2026-10-17 07:34
Betsson🎯	1.22I 81.97%NM 76.63%EV -6.66%E -5.46%K -30.27%G +0.000%	4.00I 25.00%NM 23.37%EV -6.03%E -1.51%K -2.01%G +0.000%	7.0%	2026-10-17 08:30
NordicBet🎯	1.22I 81.97%NM 76.63%EV -6.66%E -5.46%K -30.27%G +0.000%	4.00I 25.00%NM 23.37%EV -6.03%E -1.51%K -2.01%G +0.000%	7.0%	2026-10-17 08:28
ReBet🎯	1.22I 81.97%NM 76.63%EV -6.66%E -5.46%K -30.27%G +0.000%	4.00I 25.00%NM 23.37%EV -6.03%E -1.51%K -2.01%G +0.000%	7.0%	2026-10-17 08:35
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯	1.22I 81.97%NM 76.63%EV -6.66%E -5.46%K -30.27%G +0.000%	4.00I 25.00%NM 23.37%EV -6.03%E -1.51%K -2.01%G +0.000%	7.0%	2026-10-17 06:44
Fliff🎯	1.20I 83.33%NM 76.70%EV -8.19%E -6.83%K -40.95%G +0.000%	3.95I 25.32%NM 23.30%EV -7.21%E -1.82%K -2.44%G +0.000%	8.6%	2026-10-17 08:35
BetMGM🎯	1.27I 78.74%NM 75.44%EV -2.83%E -2.23%K -10.50%G +0.000%	3.90I 25.64%NM 24.56%EV -8.38%E -2.15%K -2.89%G +0.000%	4.4%	2026-10-16 22:15
Coolbet🎯	1.26I 79.37%NM 75.58%EV -3.60%E -2.86%K -13.84%G +0.000%	3.90I 25.64%NM 24.42%EV -8.38%E -2.15%K -2.89%G +0.000%	5.0%	2026-10-17 08:35
GTbets🎯	1.28I 78.13%NM 75.05%EV -2.07%E -1.62%K -7.39%G +0.000%	3.85I 25.97%NM 24.95%EV -9.56%E -2.48%K -3.35%G +0.000%	4.1%	2026-10-16 23:34
PlayUp🎯	1.25I 80.00%NM 75.49%EV -4.36%E -3.49%K -17.46%G +0.000%	3.85I 25.97%NM 24.51%EV -9.56%E -2.48%K -3.35%G +0.000%	6.0%	2026-10-16 22:09
Betr (AU)🎯	1.20I 83.33%NM 76.24%EV -8.19%E -6.83%K -40.95%G +0.000%	3.85I 25.97%NM 23.76%EV -9.56%E -2.48%K -3.35%G +0.000%	9.3%	2026-10-17 08:35
Marathon Bet🎯	1.22I 81.97%NM 75.79%EV -6.66%E -5.46%K -30.27%G +0.000%	3.82I 26.18%NM 24.21%EV -10.26%E -2.69%K -3.64%G +0.000%	8.1%	2026-10-17 08:35
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯	1.25I 80.00%NM 75.00%EV -4.36%E -3.49%K -17.46%G +0.000%	3.75I 26.67%NM 25.00%EV -11.91%E -3.17%K -4.33%G +0.000%	6.7%	2026-10-16 22:14
Coral🎯	1.25I 80.00%NM 75.00%EV -4.36%E -3.49%K -17.46%G +0.000%	3.75I 26.67%NM 25.00%EV -11.91%E -3.17%K -4.33%G +0.000%	6.7%	2026-10-16 22:14
LeoVegas🎯	1.24I 80.65%NM 74.90%EV -5.13%E -4.14%K -21.37%G +0.000%	3.70I 27.03%NM 25.10%EV -13.08%E -3.54%K -4.84%G +0.000%	7.7%	2026-10-17 08:30
PMU (FR)🎯	1.20I 83.33%NM 75.51%EV -8.19%E -6.83%K -40.95%G +0.000%	3.70I 27.03%NM 24.49%EV -13.08%E -3.54%K -4.84%G +0.000%	10.4%	2026-10-17 07:15
888sport🎯	1.29I 77.52%NM 73.62%EV -1.30%E -1.01%K -4.50%G +0.000%	3.60I 27.78%NM 26.38%EV -15.43%E -4.29%K -5.93%G +0.000%	5.3%	2026-10-17 08:25
William Hill🎯	1.29I 77.52%NM 73.62%EV -1.30%E -1.01%K -4.50%G +0.000%	3.60I 27.78%NM 26.38%EV -15.43%E -4.29%K -5.93%G +0.000%	5.3%	2026-10-17 08:25
888sport (SE)🎯	1.29I 77.52%NM 73.62%EV -1.30%E -1.01%K -4.50%G +0.000%	3.60I 27.78%NM 26.38%EV -15.43%E -4.29%K -5.93%G +0.000%	5.3%	2026-10-17 08:25
Mr Green (SE)🎯	1.29I 77.52%NM 73.62%EV -1.30%E -1.01%K -4.50%G +0.000%	3.60I 27.78%NM 26.38%EV -15.43%E -4.29%K -5.93%G +0.000%	5.3%	2026-10-17 08:25
betano_uk🎯	1.25I 80.00%NM 74.23%EV -4.36%E -3.49%K -17.46%G +0.000%	3.60I 27.78%NM 25.77%EV -15.43%E -4.29%K -5.93%G +0.000%	7.8%	2026-10-17 07:54
Bet Victor🎯	1.25I 80.00%NM 74.23%EV -4.36%E -3.49%K -17.46%G +0.000%	3.60I 27.78%NM 25.77%EV -15.43%E -4.29%K -5.93%G +0.000%	7.8%	2026-10-17 07:59
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯	1.28I 78.13%NM 73.22%EV -2.07%E -1.62%K -7.39%G +0.000%	3.50I 28.57%NM 26.78%EV -17.78%E -5.08%K -7.11%G +0.000%	6.7%	2026-10-16 22:15
Neds🎯	1.28I 78.13%NM 73.22%EV -2.07%E -1.62%K -7.39%G +0.000%	3.50I 28.57%NM 26.78%EV -17.78%E -5.08%K -7.11%G +0.000%	6.7%	2026-10-16 22:15

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (7)

Bookmaker	Local	Visit	Margin ▲	Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎	1.27I 78.74%NM 78.36%	4.60I 21.74%NM 21.64%	0.5%	2026-10-17 08:25
Matchbook◎	1.27I 78.74%NM 78.36%	4.60I 21.74%NM 21.64%	0.5%	2026-10-17 08:35
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎	1.26I 79.37%NM 78.86%	4.70I 21.28%NM 21.14%	0.6%	2026-10-17 08:35
ProphetX◎	1.27I 78.74%NM 78.18%	4.55I 21.98%NM 21.82%	0.7%	2026-10-17 08:35
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎	1.26I 79.37%NM 78.50%	4.60I 21.74%NM 21.50%	1.1%	2026-10-17 08:35
Novig◎	1.27I 78.74%NM 77.76%	4.44I 22.52%NM 22.24%	1.3%	2026-10-17 08:20
Smarkets◎	1.24I 80.65%NM 78.40%	4.50I 22.22%NM 21.60%	2.9%	2026-10-17 08:35