Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Alexander Zverev v Alejandro Davidovich Fokina

2026-10-17 04:00 UTC — ATP Shanghai Masters

Resultado del partido

61 corredores (19 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Alexander Zverev (Local)

Predicción 73.51%1.36momio equitativo
EV -2.96%
Ventaja -2.25%
Kelly -9.26%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.32

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
71.43%73.75%73.47%75.45%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.201.281.271.3283.33%78.37%78.74%75.76%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Alejandro Davidovich Fokina (Visitante)

Predicción 26.49%3.78momio equitativo
EV +3.30%
Ventaja +0.847%
Kelly +1.14%
Crecimiento +0.038%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.90

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
24.55%26.25%26.53%28.57%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
3.203.633.603.9031.25%27.52%27.78%25.64%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Para Resultado del partido, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estima estas probabilidades: Alexander Zverev (Local): 73.51%; Alejandro Davidovich Fokina (Visitante): 26.49%. Para Alejandro Davidovich Fokina (Visitante), esa estimación equivale a momios decimales justos de 3.78. 18 corredores ofrecen momios superiores a ese nivel; los mejores momios disponibles son 3.90, lo que produce un valor esperado positivo de +3.30%.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (61 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitante ▼MargenActualizado
LowVig.ag🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 75.44%EV -6.64%E -5.23%K -24.59%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.56%EV +3.30%E +0.847%K +1.14%G +0.038%4.4%2026-10-15 17:50
BetOnline.ag🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 75.44%EV -6.64%E -5.23%K -24.59%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.56%EV +3.30%E +0.847%K +1.14%G +0.038%4.4%2026-10-15 17:50
BetAnything🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 75.20%EV -6.64%E -5.23%K -24.59%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.80%EV +1.98%E +0.514%K +0.694%G +0.014%4.7%2026-10-15 17:55
Unibet🎯1.26I 79.37%NM 75.34%EV -7.37%E -5.85%K -28.36%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.66%EV +1.98%E +0.514%K +0.694%G +0.014%5.3%2026-10-15 13:50
Casumo🎯1.26I 79.37%NM 75.34%EV -7.37%E -5.85%K -28.36%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.66%EV +1.98%E +0.514%K +0.694%G +0.014%5.3%2026-10-15 13:55
LiveScore Bet🎯1.26I 79.37%NM 75.34%EV -7.37%E -5.85%K -28.36%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.66%EV +1.98%E +0.514%K +0.694%G +0.014%5.3%2026-10-15 13:55
Virgin Bet🎯1.26I 79.37%NM 75.34%EV -7.37%E -5.85%K -28.36%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.66%EV +1.98%E +0.514%K +0.694%G +0.014%5.3%2026-10-15 13:50
BetRivers🎯1.26I 79.37%NM 75.34%EV -7.37%E -5.85%K -28.36%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.66%EV +1.98%E +0.514%K +0.694%G +0.014%5.3%2026-10-15 13:55
Unibet (SE)🎯1.26I 79.37%NM 75.34%EV -7.37%E -5.85%K -28.36%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.66%EV +1.98%E +0.514%K +0.694%G +0.014%5.3%2026-10-15 13:50
TABtouch🎯1.26I 79.37%NM 75.34%EV -7.37%E -5.85%K -28.36%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.66%EV +1.98%E +0.514%K +0.694%G +0.014%5.3%2026-10-15 13:50
Unibet (NL)🎯1.26I 79.37%NM 75.34%EV -7.37%E -5.85%K -28.36%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.66%EV +1.98%E +0.514%K +0.694%G +0.014%5.3%2026-10-15 13:50
Grosvenor🎯1.26I 79.37%NM 75.34%EV -7.37%E -5.85%K -28.36%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.66%EV +1.98%E +0.514%K +0.694%G +0.014%5.3%2026-10-15 13:50
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.26I 79.37%NM 75.34%EV -7.37%E -5.85%K -28.36%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.66%EV +1.98%E +0.514%K +0.694%G +0.014%5.3%2026-10-15 13:50
betPARX🎯1.26I 79.37%NM 75.34%EV -7.37%E -5.85%K -28.36%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.66%EV +1.98%E +0.514%K +0.694%G +0.014%5.3%2026-10-15 13:50
Svenska Spel🎯1.26I 79.37%NM 75.34%EV -7.37%E -5.85%K -28.36%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.66%EV +1.98%E +0.514%K +0.694%G +0.014%5.3%2026-10-15 13:50
ATG (SE)🎯1.26I 79.37%NM 75.34%EV -7.37%E -5.85%K -28.36%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.66%EV +1.98%E +0.514%K +0.694%G +0.014%5.3%2026-10-15 13:50
Bally Bet🎯1.26I 79.37%NM 75.34%EV -7.37%E -5.85%K -28.36%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.66%EV +1.98%E +0.514%K +0.694%G +0.014%5.3%2026-10-15 13:50
Tipico (DE)🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 75.25%EV -8.11%E -6.49%K -32.44%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.75%EV +0.653%E +0.172%K +0.233%G +0.002%6.3%2026-10-15 16:55
1xBet🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 74.51%EV -5.17%E -4.01%K -17.82%G +0.000%3.77I 26.53%NM 25.49%EV -0.142%E -0.038%K -0.051%G +0.000%4.0%2026-10-15 18:20
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 74.70%EV -6.64%E -5.23%K -24.59%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.30%EV -0.671%E -0.179%K -0.244%G +0.000%5.4%2026-10-15 12:50
betano_uk🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 75.45%EV -10.31%E -8.45%K -46.89%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.55%EV -0.671%E -0.179%K -0.244%G +0.000%8.6%2026-10-15 14:15
Bet Victor🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 75.45%EV -10.31%E -8.45%K -46.89%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.55%EV -0.671%E -0.179%K -0.244%G +0.000%8.6%2026-10-15 14:14
Pinnacle🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 73.60%EV -2.96%E -2.25%K -9.26%G +0.000%3.68I 27.17%NM 26.40%EV -2.53%E -0.686%K -0.942%G +0.000%2.9%2026-10-15 20:05
Betsson🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 73.89%EV -5.17%E -4.01%K -17.82%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.11%EV -3.32%E -0.910%K -1.25%G +0.000%4.9%2026-10-15 17:50
NordicBet🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 73.89%EV -5.17%E -4.01%K -17.82%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.11%EV -3.32%E -0.910%K -1.25%G +0.000%4.9%2026-10-15 17:50
Winamax (DE)🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 74.04%EV -5.90%E -4.61%K -21.09%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.96%EV -3.32%E -0.910%K -1.25%G +0.000%5.5%2026-10-15 17:50
PMU (FR)🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 75.26%EV -11.79%E -9.82%K -58.93%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.74%EV -3.32%E -0.910%K -1.25%G +0.000%10.7%2026-10-15 13:50
Marathon Bet🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 73.98%EV -5.90%E -4.61%K -21.09%G +0.000%3.64I 27.47%NM 26.02%EV -3.59%E -0.985%K -1.36%G +0.000%5.6%2026-10-15 20:15
GTbets🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 73.88%EV -5.90%E -4.61%K -21.09%G +0.000%3.62I 27.62%NM 26.12%EV -4.11%E -1.14%K -1.57%G +0.000%5.7%2026-10-15 18:00
Bovada🎯1.31I 76.34%NM 73.32%EV -3.70%E -2.82%K -11.93%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.68%EV -4.64%E -1.29%K -1.79%G +0.000%4.1%2026-10-15 18:07
BetMGM🎯1.31I 76.34%NM 73.32%EV -3.70%E -2.82%K -11.93%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.68%EV -4.64%E -1.29%K -1.79%G +0.000%4.1%2026-10-15 15:13
FanDuel🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 73.47%EV -4.43%E -3.41%K -14.78%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.53%EV -4.64%E -1.29%K -1.79%G +0.000%4.7%2026-10-15 18:19
Bet Right🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 73.62%EV -5.17%E -4.01%K -17.82%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.38%EV -4.64%E -1.29%K -1.79%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-15 17:50
Fanatics🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 73.62%EV -5.17%E -4.01%K -17.82%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.38%EV -4.64%E -1.29%K -1.79%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-15 17:48
Paddy Power🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 73.62%EV -5.17%E -4.01%K -17.82%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.38%EV -4.64%E -1.29%K -1.79%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-15 18:19
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 73.92%EV -6.64%E -5.23%K -24.59%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.08%EV -4.64%E -1.29%K -1.79%G +0.000%6.5%2026-10-15 17:50
SportsBet🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 73.92%EV -6.64%E -5.23%K -24.59%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.08%EV -4.64%E -1.29%K -1.79%G +0.000%6.5%2026-10-15 18:19
Fliff🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 73.92%EV -6.64%E -5.23%K -24.59%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.08%EV -4.64%E -1.29%K -1.79%G +0.000%6.5%2026-10-15 18:19
Coolbet🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 73.20%EV -4.43%E -3.41%K -14.78%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.80%EV -5.97%E -1.68%K -2.34%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-15 20:09
theScore Bet🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 73.35%EV -5.17%E -4.01%K -17.82%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.65%EV -5.97%E -1.68%K -2.34%G +0.000%5.7%2026-10-15 17:50
DraftKings🎯1.31I 76.34%NM 72.88%EV -3.70%E -2.82%K -11.93%G +0.000%3.52I 28.41%NM 27.12%EV -6.76%E -1.92%K -2.68%G +0.000%4.7%2026-10-15 15:15
Sky Bet🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -4.43%E -3.41%K -14.78%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -7.29%E -2.08%K -2.92%G +0.000%5.5%2026-10-15 18:20
888sport🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -4.43%E -3.41%K -14.78%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -7.29%E -2.08%K -2.92%G +0.000%5.5%2026-10-15 17:45
Betway🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -4.43%E -3.41%K -14.78%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -7.29%E -2.08%K -2.92%G +0.000%5.5%2026-10-15 15:10
William Hill🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -4.43%E -3.41%K -14.78%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -7.29%E -2.08%K -2.92%G +0.000%5.5%2026-10-15 17:45
888sport (SE)🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -4.43%E -3.41%K -14.78%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -7.29%E -2.08%K -2.92%G +0.000%5.5%2026-10-15 17:44
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -4.43%E -3.41%K -14.78%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -7.29%E -2.08%K -2.92%G +0.000%5.5%2026-10-15 17:45
BoyleSports🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -4.43%E -3.41%K -14.78%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -7.29%E -2.08%K -2.92%G +0.000%5.5%2026-10-15 18:20
Betr (AU)🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 73.07%EV -5.17%E -4.01%K -17.82%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.93%EV -7.29%E -2.08%K -2.92%G +0.000%6.1%2026-10-15 18:19
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 73.22%EV -5.90%E -4.61%K -21.09%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.78%EV -7.29%E -2.08%K -2.92%G +0.000%6.7%2026-10-15 15:14
Coral🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 73.22%EV -5.90%E -4.61%K -21.09%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.78%EV -7.29%E -2.08%K -2.92%G +0.000%6.7%2026-10-15 15:15
Unibet (UK)🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 73.38%EV -6.64%E -5.23%K -24.59%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.62%EV -7.29%E -2.08%K -2.92%G +0.000%7.3%2026-10-15 17:49
picklebet_au🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 73.68%EV -8.11%E -6.49%K -32.44%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.32%EV -7.29%E -2.08%K -2.92%G +0.000%8.6%2026-10-15 17:50
PlayUp🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 72.63%EV -4.43%E -3.41%K -14.78%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.37%EV -8.62%E -2.50%K -3.52%G +0.000%5.9%2026-10-15 15:14
LeoVegas🎯1.26I 79.37%NM 73.25%EV -7.37%E -5.85%K -28.36%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.75%EV -8.62%E -2.50%K -3.52%G +0.000%8.4%2026-10-15 17:50
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 72.34%EV -4.43%E -3.41%K -14.78%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.66%EV -9.94%E -2.92%K -4.14%G +0.000%6.3%2026-10-15 18:20
ReBet🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 72.77%EV -8.11%E -6.49%K -32.44%G +0.000%3.34I 29.94%NM 27.23%EV -11.53%E -3.45%K -4.93%G +0.000%9.9%2026-10-15 17:50
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 71.43%EV -2.96%E -2.25%K -9.26%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.57%EV -12.59%E -3.82%K -5.47%G +0.000%6.1%2026-10-15 15:15
Neds🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 71.43%EV -2.96%E -2.25%K -9.26%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.57%EV -12.59%E -3.82%K -5.47%G +0.000%6.1%2026-10-15 15:15
Winamax (FR)🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 72.38%EV -8.84%E -7.13%K -36.85%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.62%EV -13.92%E -4.28%K -6.18%G +0.000%11.4%2026-10-15 17:50
Unibet (FR)🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 72.07%EV -8.84%E -7.13%K -36.85%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.93%EV -15.24%E -4.76%K -6.93%G +0.000%11.9%2026-10-15 17:50
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (5)

CorredorLocalVisitanteMargen ▲Actualizado
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.34I 74.63%NM 74.18%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.82%0.6%2026-10-15 18:15
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.34I 74.63%NM 74.18%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.82%0.6%2026-10-15 18:20
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.34I 74.63%NM 74.18%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.82%0.6%2026-10-15 18:15
Smarkets◎1.33I 75.19%NM 73.29%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.71%2.6%2026-10-15 20:15
Novig◎1.32I 75.76%NM 73.01%3.57I 28.01%NM 26.99%3.8%2026-10-15 20:10