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Alexander Bublik v Brandon Nakashima
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Alexander Bublik (Local)
Prediction 44.96%2.22fair odd
EV -0.636%
Edge -0.288%
Kelly -0.526%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.21
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
42.75%45.13%45.38%48.52%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.912.072.052.2152.36%48.39%48.78%45.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Brandon Nakashima (Visit)
Prediction 55.04%1.82fair odd
EV +1.27%
Edge +0.691%
Kelly +1.51%
Growth +0.019%
assuming max odds 1.84
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
51.48%54.87%54.62%57.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.651.751.751.8460.61%57.19%56.98%54.35%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Alexander Bublik (Local): 44.96%; Brandon Nakashima (Visit): 55.04%. For Brandon Nakashima (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.82. 6 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 1.84, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.27%.
Sportsbook Odds (54 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 47.30%EV -7.83%E -3.82%K -7.46%G +0.000% | 1.84I 54.35%NM 52.70%EV +1.27%E +0.691%K +1.51%G +0.019% | 3.1% | 2026-10-11 06:05 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -10.08%E -5.04%K -10.08%G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV +0.721%E +0.394%K +0.869%G +0.006% | 4.6% | 2026-10-11 05:31 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -10.08%E -5.04%K -10.08%G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV +0.721%E +0.394%K +0.869%G +0.006% | 4.6% | 2026-10-11 05:31 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.41%EV -12.33%E -6.32%K -12.97%G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 51.59%EV +0.721%E +0.394%K +0.869%G +0.006% | 5.9% | 2026-10-11 08:55 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.94I 51.55%NM 48.40%EV -12.78%E -6.59%K -13.59%G +0.000% | 1.82I 54.95%NM 51.60%EV +0.171%E +0.094%K +0.208%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-10-11 08:55 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.94I 51.55%NM 48.40%EV -12.78%E -6.59%K -13.59%G +0.000% | 1.82I 54.95%NM 51.60%EV +0.171%E +0.094%K +0.208%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-10-11 08:55 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 2.14I 46.73%NM 45.69%EV -3.78%E -1.77%K -3.32%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 54.31%EV -0.930%E -0.517%K -1.16%G +0.000% | 2.3% | 2026-10-11 09:05 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -10.08%E -5.04%K -10.08%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -0.930%E -0.517%K -1.16%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-10-11 06:05 |
| Betway🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -10.08%E -5.04%K -10.08%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -0.930%E -0.517%K -1.16%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-10-11 09:54 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 48.52%EV -14.12%E -7.39%K -15.52%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 51.48%EV -0.930%E -0.517%K -1.16%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-10-11 08:55 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 48.52%EV -14.12%E -7.39%K -15.52%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 51.48%EV -0.930%E -0.517%K -1.16%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-10-11 08:55 |
| Unibet🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.34%EV -7.83%E -3.82%K -7.46%G +0.000% | 1.77I 56.50%NM 53.66%EV -2.58%E -1.46%K -3.35%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-10-11 05:30 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.34%EV -7.83%E -3.82%K -7.46%G +0.000% | 1.77I 56.50%NM 53.66%EV -2.58%E -1.46%K -3.35%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-10-11 05:30 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.34%EV -7.83%E -3.82%K -7.46%G +0.000% | 1.77I 56.50%NM 53.66%EV -2.58%E -1.46%K -3.35%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-10-11 05:30 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.34%EV -7.83%E -3.82%K -7.46%G +0.000% | 1.77I 56.50%NM 53.66%EV -2.58%E -1.46%K -3.35%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-10-11 05:31 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.34%EV -7.83%E -3.82%K -7.46%G +0.000% | 1.77I 56.50%NM 53.66%EV -2.58%E -1.46%K -3.35%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-10-11 05:30 |
| Casumo🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.34%EV -7.83%E -3.82%K -7.46%G +0.000% | 1.77I 56.50%NM 53.66%EV -2.58%E -1.46%K -3.35%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-10-11 05:31 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.34%EV -7.83%E -3.82%K -7.46%G +0.000% | 1.77I 56.50%NM 53.66%EV -2.58%E -1.46%K -3.35%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-10-11 05:31 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.34%EV -7.83%E -3.82%K -7.46%G +0.000% | 1.77I 56.50%NM 53.66%EV -2.58%E -1.46%K -3.35%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-10-11 05:31 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.34%EV -7.83%E -3.82%K -7.46%G +0.000% | 1.77I 56.50%NM 53.66%EV -2.58%E -1.46%K -3.35%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-10-11 05:31 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.34%EV -7.83%E -3.82%K -7.46%G +0.000% | 1.77I 56.50%NM 53.66%EV -2.58%E -1.46%K -3.35%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-10-11 05:31 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.34%EV -7.83%E -3.82%K -7.46%G +0.000% | 1.77I 56.50%NM 53.66%EV -2.58%E -1.46%K -3.35%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-10-11 05:31 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.34%EV -7.83%E -3.82%K -7.46%G +0.000% | 1.77I 56.50%NM 53.66%EV -2.58%E -1.46%K -3.35%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-10-11 05:31 |
| betPARX🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.34%EV -7.83%E -3.82%K -7.46%G +0.000% | 1.77I 56.50%NM 53.66%EV -2.58%E -1.46%K -3.35%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-10-11 05:31 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.34%EV -7.83%E -3.82%K -7.46%G +0.000% | 1.77I 56.50%NM 53.66%EV -2.58%E -1.46%K -3.35%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-10-11 05:31 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.34%EV -7.83%E -3.82%K -7.46%G +0.000% | 1.77I 56.50%NM 53.66%EV -2.58%E -1.46%K -3.35%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-10-11 05:30 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 2.08I 48.08%NM 45.83%EV -6.48%E -3.12%K -6.00%G +0.000% | 1.76I 56.82%NM 54.17%EV -3.13%E -1.78%K -4.12%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-10-11 09:54 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 2.12I 47.17%NM 45.22%EV -4.68%E -2.21%K -4.18%G +0.000% | 1.75I 57.14%NM 54.78%EV -3.68%E -2.10%K -4.91%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-10-11 09:39 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.45%EV -5.58%E -2.66%K -5.07%G +0.000% | 1.75I 57.14%NM 54.55%EV -3.68%E -2.10%K -4.91%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-10-11 09:40 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.05%EV -7.83%E -3.82%K -7.46%G +0.000% | 1.75I 57.14%NM 53.95%EV -3.68%E -2.10%K -4.91%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-10-11 09:54 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.05%EV -7.83%E -3.82%K -7.46%G +0.000% | 1.75I 57.14%NM 53.95%EV -3.68%E -2.10%K -4.91%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-10-11 08:50 |
| TAB🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.05%EV -7.83%E -3.82%K -7.46%G +0.000% | 1.75I 57.14%NM 53.95%EV -3.68%E -2.10%K -4.91%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-10-11 08:51 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.93I 51.81%NM 47.55%EV -13.23%E -6.85%K -14.22%G +0.000% | 1.75I 57.14%NM 52.45%EV -3.68%E -2.10%K -4.91%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-10-11 09:20 |
| GTbets🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.73%EV -3.33%E -1.55%K -2.90%G +0.000% | 1.74I 57.47%NM 55.27%EV -4.23%E -2.43%K -5.72%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-10-11 05:31 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 2.08I 48.08%NM 45.55%EV -6.48%E -3.12%K -6.00%G +0.000% | 1.74I 57.47%NM 54.45%EV -4.23%E -2.43%K -5.72%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-10-11 09:09 |
| Fliff🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.52%EV -10.08%E -5.04%K -10.08%G +0.000% | 1.74I 57.47%NM 53.48%EV -4.23%E -2.43%K -5.72%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-10-11 08:20 |
| ReBet🎯 | 2.12I 47.17%NM 44.94%EV -4.68%E -2.21%K -4.18%G +0.000% | 1.73I 57.80%NM 55.06%EV -4.78%E -2.76%K -6.55%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-10-11 07:46 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -5.58%E -2.66%K -5.07%G +0.000% | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -4.78%E -2.76%K -6.55%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-10-11 09:40 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -5.58%E -2.66%K -5.07%G +0.000% | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -4.78%E -2.76%K -6.55%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-10-11 09:44 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -5.58%E -2.66%K -5.07%G +0.000% | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -4.78%E -2.76%K -6.55%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-10-11 09:39 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.03%EV -5.58%E -2.66%K -5.07%G +0.000% | 1.72I 58.14%NM 54.97%EV -5.33%E -3.10%K -7.41%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-10-11 09:54 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.03%EV -5.58%E -2.66%K -5.07%G +0.000% | 1.72I 58.14%NM 54.97%EV -5.33%E -3.10%K -7.41%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-10-11 09:54 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.24%EV -10.08%E -5.04%K -10.08%G +0.000% | 1.72I 58.14%NM 53.76%EV -5.33%E -3.10%K -7.41%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-10-10 21:31 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.96I 51.02%NM 46.45%EV -11.88%E -6.06%K -12.37%G +0.000% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 53.55%EV -6.43%E -3.78%K -9.19%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-10-11 05:30 |
| Bovada🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.44%EV -1.09%E -0.493%K -0.905%G +0.000% | 1.69I 59.17%NM 56.56%EV -6.98%E -4.13%K -10.12%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-10-11 09:55 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 2.21I 45.25%NM 43.04%EV -0.636%E -0.288%K -0.526%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.96%EV -8.08%E -4.84%K -12.07%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-10-11 09:54 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -1.09%E -0.493%K -0.905%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -8.08%E -4.84%K -12.07%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-10-11 09:55 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -1.09%E -0.493%K -0.905%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -8.08%E -4.84%K -12.07%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-10-11 08:20 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -1.09%E -0.493%K -0.905%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -8.08%E -4.84%K -12.07%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-10-11 09:54 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.30%EV -5.58%E -2.66%K -5.07%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 55.70%EV -8.08%E -4.84%K -12.07%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-10-11 09:51 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.15%EV -5.58%E -2.66%K -5.07%G +0.000% | 1.66I 60.24%NM 55.85%EV -8.64%E -5.20%K -13.08%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-10-10 21:41 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 2.21I 45.25%NM 42.75%EV -0.636%E -0.288%K -0.526%G +0.000% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.25%EV -9.19%E -5.57%K -14.13%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-10-11 09:55 |
| Betsson🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.86%EV -1.09%E -0.493%K -0.905%G +0.000% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.14%EV -9.19%E -5.57%K -14.13%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-10-11 09:54 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.86%EV -1.09%E -0.493%K -0.905%G +0.000% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.14%EV -9.19%E -5.57%K -14.13%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-10-11 09:55 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (7)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matchbook◎ | 2.20I 45.45%NM 45.27% | 1.82I 54.95%NM 54.73% | 0.4% | 2026-10-11 09:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 2.18I 45.87%NM 45.64% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 54.36% | 0.5% | 2026-10-11 09:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 2.18I 45.87%NM 45.64% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 54.36% | 0.5% | 2026-10-11 09:55 |
| ProphetX◎ | 2.19I 45.66%NM 45.25% | 1.81I 55.25%NM 54.75% | 0.9% | 2026-10-11 09:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 2.16I 46.30%NM 45.73% | 1.82I 54.95%NM 54.27% | 1.2% | 2026-10-11 09:55 |
| Novig◎ | 2.20I 45.45%NM 44.86% | 1.79I 55.87%NM 55.14% | 1.3% | 2026-10-11 09:55 |
| Smarkets◎ | 2.16I 46.30%NM 45.32% | 1.79I 55.87%NM 54.68% | 2.2% | 2026-10-11 09:55 |