Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Alexander Bublik v Brandon Nakashima

2026-10-11 07:30 UTC — ATP Shanghai Masters

Head to Head

59 sportsbooks (18 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Alexander Bublik (Local)

Prediction 44.41%2.25fair odd
EV +0.370%
Edge +0.164%
Kelly +0.294%
Growth +0.001%

assuming max odds 2.26

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
42.05%44.37%44.69%46.95%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.002.122.122.2650.00%47.24%47.17%44.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Brandon Nakashima (Visit)

Prediction 55.59%1.80fair odd
EV -0.497%
Edge -0.277%
Kelly -0.629%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.79

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
53.05%55.63%55.31%57.95%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.611.711.721.7962.11%58.39%58.14%55.87%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Alexander Bublik (Local): 44.41%; Brandon Nakashima (Visit): 55.59%. For Alexander Bublik (Local), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.25. 1 bookmaker offers odds above that level; the best available odds are 2.26, producing a positive expected value of +0.370%.

Sportsbook Odds (59 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
GTbets🎯2.26I 44.25%NM 42.05%EV +0.370%E +0.164%K +0.294%G +0.001%1.64I 60.98%NM 57.95%EV -8.83%E -5.39%K -13.80%G +0.000%5.2%2026-10-10 14:00
BoyleSports🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.60%EV -0.074%E -0.033%K -0.059%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 57.40%EV -7.17%E -4.29%K -10.70%G +0.000%4.3%2026-10-10 14:00
DraftKings🎯2.21I 45.25%NM 43.19%EV -1.85%E -0.837%K -1.53%G +0.000%1.68I 59.52%NM 56.81%EV -6.61%E -3.94%K -9.72%G +0.000%4.8%2026-10-10 15:10
Fanatics🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.44%EV -2.29%E -1.04%K -1.91%G +0.000%1.69I 59.17%NM 56.56%EV -6.06%E -3.58%K -8.78%G +0.000%4.6%2026-10-10 18:40
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -2.29%E -1.04%K -1.91%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -7.17%E -4.29%K -10.70%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-10 18:40
theScore Bet🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -2.29%E -1.04%K -1.91%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -7.17%E -4.29%K -10.70%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-10 18:40
betano_uk🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.26%EV -2.29%E -1.04%K -1.91%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 57.74%EV -10.50%E -6.52%K -17.22%G +0.000%7.6%2026-10-10 19:33
Bet Victor🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.26%EV -2.29%E -1.04%K -1.91%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 57.74%EV -10.50%E -6.52%K -17.22%G +0.000%7.6%2026-10-10 19:37
Betsson🎯2.17I 46.08%NM 43.93%EV -3.63%E -1.67%K -3.10%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 56.07%EV -5.50%E -3.24%K -7.86%G +0.000%4.9%2026-10-10 19:50
NordicBet🎯2.17I 46.08%NM 43.93%EV -3.63%E -1.67%K -3.10%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 56.07%EV -5.50%E -3.24%K -7.86%G +0.000%4.9%2026-10-10 19:49
Pinnacle🎯2.16I 46.30%NM 45.18%EV -4.07%E -1.88%K -3.51%G +0.000%1.78I 56.18%NM 54.82%EV -1.05%E -0.591%K -1.35%G +0.000%2.5%2026-10-10 20:01
Winamax (DE)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 45.01%EV -4.52%E -2.10%K -3.93%G +0.000%1.76I 56.82%NM 54.99%EV -2.16%E -1.23%K -2.85%G +0.000%3.3%2026-10-10 19:54
Bovada🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 44.30%EV -4.52%E -2.10%K -3.93%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 55.70%EV -4.94%E -2.89%K -6.96%G +0.000%5.0%2026-10-10 19:56
Unibet (UK)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.86%EV -4.52%E -2.10%K -3.93%G +0.000%1.68I 59.52%NM 56.14%EV -6.61%E -3.94%K -9.72%G +0.000%6.0%2026-10-10 19:50
1xBet🎯2.13I 46.95%NM 45.10%EV -5.40%E -2.54%K -4.78%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 54.90%EV -2.72%E -1.55%K -3.63%G +0.000%4.1%2026-10-10 20:05
ReBet🎯2.13I 46.95%NM 43.95%EV -5.40%E -2.54%K -4.78%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 56.05%EV -7.17%E -4.29%K -10.70%G +0.000%6.8%2026-10-10 19:51
Coolbet🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 44.94%EV -5.85%E -2.76%K -5.22%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 55.06%EV -3.83%E -2.22%K -5.25%G +0.000%5.0%2026-10-10 20:10
Unibet🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 44.79%EV -5.85%E -2.76%K -5.22%G +0.000%1.72I 58.14%NM 55.21%EV -4.39%E -2.55%K -6.09%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-10 19:51
Virgin Bet🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 44.79%EV -5.85%E -2.76%K -5.22%G +0.000%1.72I 58.14%NM 55.21%EV -4.39%E -2.55%K -6.09%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-10 19:50
LiveScore Bet🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 44.79%EV -5.85%E -2.76%K -5.22%G +0.000%1.72I 58.14%NM 55.21%EV -4.39%E -2.55%K -6.09%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-10 19:50
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 44.79%EV -5.85%E -2.76%K -5.22%G +0.000%1.72I 58.14%NM 55.21%EV -4.39%E -2.55%K -6.09%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-10 19:51
Grosvenor🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 44.79%EV -5.85%E -2.76%K -5.22%G +0.000%1.72I 58.14%NM 55.21%EV -4.39%E -2.55%K -6.09%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-10 19:50
Casumo🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 44.79%EV -5.85%E -2.76%K -5.22%G +0.000%1.72I 58.14%NM 55.21%EV -4.39%E -2.55%K -6.09%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-10 19:50
BetRivers🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 44.79%EV -5.85%E -2.76%K -5.22%G +0.000%1.72I 58.14%NM 55.21%EV -4.39%E -2.55%K -6.09%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-10 19:49
TABtouch🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 44.79%EV -5.85%E -2.76%K -5.22%G +0.000%1.72I 58.14%NM 55.21%EV -4.39%E -2.55%K -6.09%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-10 19:50
Unibet (SE)🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 44.79%EV -5.85%E -2.76%K -5.22%G +0.000%1.72I 58.14%NM 55.21%EV -4.39%E -2.55%K -6.09%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-10 19:51
Unibet (NL)🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 44.79%EV -5.85%E -2.76%K -5.22%G +0.000%1.72I 58.14%NM 55.21%EV -4.39%E -2.55%K -6.09%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-10 19:50
Bet Right🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 44.79%EV -5.85%E -2.76%K -5.22%G +0.000%1.72I 58.14%NM 55.21%EV -4.39%E -2.55%K -6.09%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-10 20:05
ATG (SE)🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 44.79%EV -5.85%E -2.76%K -5.22%G +0.000%1.72I 58.14%NM 55.21%EV -4.39%E -2.55%K -6.09%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-10 19:51
Bally Bet🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 44.79%EV -5.85%E -2.76%K -5.22%G +0.000%1.72I 58.14%NM 55.21%EV -4.39%E -2.55%K -6.09%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-10 19:50
betPARX🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 44.79%EV -5.85%E -2.76%K -5.22%G +0.000%1.72I 58.14%NM 55.21%EV -4.39%E -2.55%K -6.09%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-10 19:50
Svenska Spel🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 44.79%EV -5.85%E -2.76%K -5.22%G +0.000%1.72I 58.14%NM 55.21%EV -4.39%E -2.55%K -6.09%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-10 19:50
LeoVegas🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 44.50%EV -5.85%E -2.76%K -5.22%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 55.50%EV -5.50%E -3.24%K -7.86%G +0.000%6.0%2026-10-10 19:55
FanDuel🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.60%EV -6.74%E -3.21%K -6.12%G +0.000%1.76I 56.82%NM 54.40%EV -2.16%E -1.23%K -2.85%G +0.000%4.4%2026-10-10 19:46
SportsBet🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.45%EV -6.74%E -3.21%K -6.12%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 54.55%EV -2.72%E -1.55%K -3.63%G +0.000%4.8%2026-10-10 19:46
Sky Bet🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -6.74%E -3.21%K -6.12%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -3.83%E -2.22%K -5.25%G +0.000%5.4%2026-10-10 20:10
888sport🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -6.74%E -3.21%K -6.12%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -3.83%E -2.22%K -5.25%G +0.000%5.4%2026-10-10 19:51
William Hill🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -6.74%E -3.21%K -6.12%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -3.83%E -2.22%K -5.25%G +0.000%5.4%2026-10-10 19:51
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -6.74%E -3.21%K -6.12%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -3.83%E -2.22%K -5.25%G +0.000%5.4%2026-10-10 19:50
888sport (SE)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -6.74%E -3.21%K -6.12%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -3.83%E -2.22%K -5.25%G +0.000%5.4%2026-10-10 19:50
Winamax (FR)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.03%EV -6.74%E -3.21%K -6.12%G +0.000%1.72I 58.14%NM 54.97%EV -4.39%E -2.55%K -6.09%G +0.000%5.8%2026-10-10 19:55
Hard Rock Bet🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.88%EV -6.74%E -3.21%K -6.12%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 55.12%EV -4.94%E -2.89%K -6.96%G +0.000%6.1%2026-10-10 19:50
Coral🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.74%EV -6.74%E -3.21%K -6.12%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 55.26%EV -5.50%E -3.24%K -7.86%G +0.000%6.4%2026-10-10 15:25
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.74%EV -6.74%E -3.21%K -6.12%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 55.26%EV -5.50%E -3.24%K -7.86%G +0.000%6.4%2026-10-10 15:24
Betr (AU)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.74%EV -6.74%E -3.21%K -6.12%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 55.26%EV -5.50%E -3.24%K -7.86%G +0.000%6.4%2026-10-10 20:00
BetMGM🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.59%EV -6.74%E -3.21%K -6.12%G +0.000%1.69I 59.17%NM 55.41%EV -6.06%E -3.58%K -8.78%G +0.000%6.8%2026-10-10 15:24
Unibet (FR)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.85%EV -6.74%E -3.21%K -6.12%G +0.000%1.64I 60.98%NM 56.15%EV -8.83%E -5.39%K -13.80%G +0.000%8.6%2026-10-10 19:50
BetOnline.ag🎯2.07I 48.31%NM 46.37%EV -8.07%E -3.90%K -7.54%G +0.000%1.79I 55.87%NM 53.63%EV -0.497%E -0.277%K -0.629%G +0.000%4.2%2026-10-10 19:50
LowVig.ag🎯2.07I 48.31%NM 46.37%EV -8.07%E -3.90%K -7.54%G +0.000%1.79I 55.87%NM 53.63%EV -0.497%E -0.277%K -0.629%G +0.000%4.2%2026-10-10 19:50
Betway🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 46.05%EV -8.96%E -4.37%K -8.53%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 53.95%EV -2.72%E -1.55%K -3.63%G +0.000%5.9%2026-10-10 20:00
PlayUp🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 46.05%EV -8.96%E -4.37%K -8.53%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 53.95%EV -2.72%E -1.55%K -3.63%G +0.000%5.9%2026-10-10 20:01
TAB🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 46.05%EV -8.96%E -4.37%K -8.53%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 53.95%EV -2.72%E -1.55%K -3.63%G +0.000%5.9%2026-10-10 19:50
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.62%EV -8.96%E -4.37%K -8.53%G +0.000%1.72I 58.14%NM 54.38%EV -4.39%E -2.55%K -6.09%G +0.000%6.9%2026-10-10 15:25
Neds🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.62%EV -8.96%E -4.37%K -8.53%G +0.000%1.72I 58.14%NM 54.38%EV -4.39%E -2.55%K -6.09%G +0.000%6.9%2026-10-10 15:25
Tipico (DE)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.33%EV -8.96%E -4.37%K -8.53%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 54.67%EV -5.50%E -3.24%K -7.86%G +0.000%7.6%2026-10-10 20:10
Fliff🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.19%EV -8.96%E -4.37%K -8.53%G +0.000%1.69I 59.17%NM 54.81%EV -6.06%E -3.58%K -8.78%G +0.000%8.0%2026-10-10 20:05
PMU (FR)🎯2.04I 49.02%NM 44.72%EV -9.40%E -4.61%K -9.04%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 55.28%EV -8.28%E -5.02%K -12.74%G +0.000%9.6%2026-10-10 19:50
BetAnything🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.95%EV -11.18%E -5.59%K -11.18%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 53.05%EV -1.61%E -0.909%K -2.09%G +0.000%6.5%2026-10-10 19:55
Paddy Power🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.38%EV -11.18%E -5.59%K -11.18%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 53.62%EV -3.83%E -2.22%K -5.25%G +0.000%7.8%2026-10-10 19:45
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (7)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.14I 46.73%NM 46.50%1.86I 53.76%NM 53.50%0.5%2026-10-10 20:01
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.14I 46.73%NM 46.50%1.86I 53.76%NM 53.50%0.5%2026-10-10 20:01
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.14I 46.73%NM 46.50%1.86I 53.76%NM 53.50%0.5%2026-10-10 20:05
Matchbook◎2.14I 46.73%NM 46.50%1.86I 53.76%NM 53.50%0.5%2026-10-10 20:00
ProphetX◎2.16I 46.30%NM 45.86%1.83I 54.64%NM 54.14%0.9%2026-10-10 20:00
Novig◎2.13I 46.95%NM 46.21%1.83I 54.64%NM 53.79%1.6%2026-10-10 20:05
Smarkets◎2.10I 47.62%NM 46.43%1.82I 54.95%NM 53.57%2.6%2026-10-10 20:05