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Alejandro Davidovich Fokina v Frances Tiafoe
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina (Local)
Prediction 49.62%2.02fair odd
EV +0.231%
Edge +0.115%
Kelly +0.227%
Growth +0.001%
assuming max odds 2.02
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
47.37%49.51%49.73%50.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.851.921.932.0254.05%52.02%51.81%49.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Frances Tiafoe (Visit)
Prediction 50.38%1.98fair odd
EV -3.27%
Edge -1.70%
Kelly -3.55%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.92
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
50.00%50.49%50.27%52.63%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.791.871.861.9255.87%53.61%53.76%52.08%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina (Local): 49.62%; Frances Tiafoe (Visit): 50.38%. For Alejandro Davidovich Fokina (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.015. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.020, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.231%.
Sportsbook Odds (59 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 2.02I 49.50%NM 47.40%EV +0.231%E +0.115%K +0.227%G +0.001% | 1.82I 54.95%NM 52.60%EV -8.31%E -4.56%K -10.13%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-10-11 12:44 |
| TAB🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -0.761%E -0.380%K -0.761%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -9.32%E -5.18%K -11.64%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-10-11 12:44 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.99I 50.25%NM 49.10%EV -1.26%E -0.632%K -1.27%G +0.000% | 1.92I 52.08%NM 50.90%EV -3.27%E -1.70%K -3.55%G +0.000% | 2.3% | 2026-10-11 12:35 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.95%EV -3.24%E -1.66%K -3.41%G +0.000% | 1.87I 53.48%NM 51.05%EV -5.79%E -3.10%K -6.65%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-10-11 12:44 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.95%EV -3.24%E -1.66%K -3.41%G +0.000% | 1.87I 53.48%NM 51.05%EV -5.79%E -3.10%K -6.65%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-10-10 18:35 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.82%EV -3.24%E -1.66%K -3.41%G +0.000% | 1.86I 53.76%NM 51.18%EV -6.29%E -3.38%K -7.32%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-10-11 08:40 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.68%EV -3.24%E -1.66%K -3.41%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 51.32%EV -6.80%E -3.67%K -8.00%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-10-11 12:29 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.68%EV -3.24%E -1.66%K -3.41%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 51.32%EV -6.80%E -3.67%K -8.00%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-10-11 12:29 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.68%EV -3.24%E -1.66%K -3.41%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 51.32%EV -6.80%E -3.67%K -8.00%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-10-11 12:44 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.68%EV -3.24%E -1.66%K -3.41%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 51.32%EV -6.80%E -3.67%K -8.00%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-10-11 12:29 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.68%EV -3.24%E -1.66%K -3.41%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 51.32%EV -6.80%E -3.67%K -8.00%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-10-11 12:30 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.94I 51.55%NM 49.74%EV -3.74%E -1.93%K -3.98%G +0.000% | 1.92I 52.08%NM 50.26%EV -3.27%E -1.70%K -3.55%G +0.000% | 3.6% | 2026-10-11 12:34 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.94I 51.55%NM 49.48%EV -3.74%E -1.93%K -3.98%G +0.000% | 1.90I 52.63%NM 50.52%EV -4.28%E -2.25%K -4.75%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-10-11 11:15 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.94I 51.55%NM 48.95%EV -3.74%E -1.93%K -3.98%G +0.000% | 1.86I 53.76%NM 51.05%EV -6.29%E -3.38%K -7.32%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-10-10 18:40 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.94I 51.55%NM 48.95%EV -3.74%E -1.93%K -3.98%G +0.000% | 1.86I 53.76%NM 51.05%EV -6.29%E -3.38%K -7.32%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-10-10 18:40 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.94I 51.55%NM 48.95%EV -3.74%E -1.93%K -3.98%G +0.000% | 1.86I 53.76%NM 51.05%EV -6.29%E -3.38%K -7.32%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-10-10 18:40 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.93I 51.81%NM 49.61%EV -4.23%E -2.19%K -4.55%G +0.000% | 1.90I 52.63%NM 50.39%EV -4.28%E -2.25%K -4.75%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-10-11 12:44 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.93I 51.81%NM 49.61%EV -4.23%E -2.19%K -4.55%G +0.000% | 1.90I 52.63%NM 50.39%EV -4.28%E -2.25%K -4.75%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-10-11 11:14 |
| GTbets🎯 | 1.93I 51.81%NM 49.34%EV -4.23%E -2.19%K -4.55%G +0.000% | 1.88I 53.19%NM 50.66%EV -5.28%E -2.81%K -6.01%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-10-10 14:00 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.93I 51.81%NM 49.08%EV -4.23%E -2.19%K -4.55%G +0.000% | 1.86I 53.76%NM 50.92%EV -6.29%E -3.38%K -7.32%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-10-11 12:44 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.93I 51.81%NM 48.94%EV -4.23%E -2.19%K -4.55%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 51.06%EV -6.80%E -3.67%K -8.00%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-10-11 12:34 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.93I 51.81%NM 48.94%EV -4.23%E -2.19%K -4.55%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 51.06%EV -6.80%E -3.67%K -8.00%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-10-10 18:40 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.93I 51.81%NM 48.94%EV -4.23%E -2.19%K -4.55%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 51.06%EV -6.80%E -3.67%K -8.00%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-10-10 18:40 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.93I 51.81%NM 48.94%EV -4.23%E -2.19%K -4.55%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 51.06%EV -6.80%E -3.67%K -8.00%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-10-10 18:40 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.93I 51.81%NM 48.94%EV -4.23%E -2.19%K -4.55%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 51.06%EV -6.80%E -3.67%K -8.00%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-10-10 18:40 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.93I 51.81%NM 48.94%EV -4.23%E -2.19%K -4.55%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 51.06%EV -6.80%E -3.67%K -8.00%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-10-10 18:40 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.93I 51.81%NM 48.94%EV -4.23%E -2.19%K -4.55%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 51.06%EV -6.80%E -3.67%K -8.00%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-10-10 18:40 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.93I 51.81%NM 48.94%EV -4.23%E -2.19%K -4.55%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 51.06%EV -6.80%E -3.67%K -8.00%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-10-10 18:40 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.93I 51.81%NM 48.94%EV -4.23%E -2.19%K -4.55%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 51.06%EV -6.80%E -3.67%K -8.00%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-10-10 18:40 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.93I 51.81%NM 48.94%EV -4.23%E -2.19%K -4.55%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 51.06%EV -6.80%E -3.67%K -8.00%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-10-10 18:40 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.93I 51.81%NM 48.94%EV -4.23%E -2.19%K -4.55%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 51.06%EV -6.80%E -3.67%K -8.00%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-10-10 18:40 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.93I 51.81%NM 48.94%EV -4.23%E -2.19%K -4.55%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 51.06%EV -6.80%E -3.67%K -8.00%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-10-10 18:40 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.93I 51.81%NM 48.81%EV -4.23%E -2.19%K -4.55%G +0.000% | 1.84I 54.35%NM 51.19%EV -7.30%E -3.97%K -8.69%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-10-11 12:44 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.92I 52.08%NM 49.74%EV -4.73%E -2.46%K -5.14%G +0.000% | 1.90I 52.63%NM 50.26%EV -4.28%E -2.25%K -4.75%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-10-11 10:49 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -5.23%E -2.74%K -5.74%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -3.77%E -1.98%K -4.15%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-10-11 12:44 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -5.23%E -2.74%K -5.74%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -3.77%E -1.98%K -4.15%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-10-11 03:05 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -5.23%E -2.74%K -5.74%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -3.77%E -1.98%K -4.15%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-10-10 14:00 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -5.23%E -2.74%K -5.74%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -3.77%E -1.98%K -4.15%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-10-11 10:49 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -5.23%E -2.74%K -5.74%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -3.77%E -1.98%K -4.15%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-10-11 10:49 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -5.23%E -2.74%K -5.74%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -3.77%E -1.98%K -4.15%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-10-10 23:10 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 49.87%EV -5.23%E -2.74%K -5.74%G +0.000% | 1.90I 52.63%NM 50.13%EV -4.28%E -2.25%K -4.75%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-10-11 04:10 |
| ReBet🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 49.87%EV -5.23%E -2.74%K -5.74%G +0.000% | 1.90I 52.63%NM 50.13%EV -4.28%E -2.25%K -4.75%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-10-11 10:14 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 49.60%EV -5.23%E -2.74%K -5.74%G +0.000% | 1.88I 53.19%NM 50.40%EV -5.28%E -2.81%K -6.01%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-10-11 10:39 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 49.47%EV -5.23%E -2.74%K -5.74%G +0.000% | 1.87I 53.48%NM 50.53%EV -5.79%E -3.10%K -6.65%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-10-11 10:50 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 48.93%EV -5.23%E -2.74%K -5.74%G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 51.07%EV -7.80%E -4.26%K -9.40%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-10-11 02:55 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 48.93%EV -5.23%E -2.74%K -5.74%G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 51.07%EV -7.80%E -4.26%K -9.40%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-10-11 10:49 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 48.52%EV -5.23%E -2.74%K -5.74%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 51.48%EV -9.32%E -5.18%K -11.64%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-10-11 12:44 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.90I 52.63%NM 50.00%EV -5.72%E -3.01%K -6.36%G +0.000% | 1.90I 52.63%NM 50.00%EV -4.28%E -2.25%K -4.75%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-10-11 12:34 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.90I 52.63%NM 50.00%EV -5.72%E -3.01%K -6.36%G +0.000% | 1.90I 52.63%NM 50.00%EV -4.28%E -2.25%K -4.75%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-10-11 12:43 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.90I 52.63%NM 50.00%EV -5.72%E -3.01%K -6.36%G +0.000% | 1.90I 52.63%NM 50.00%EV -4.28%E -2.25%K -4.75%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-10-11 06:35 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.90I 52.63%NM 49.74%EV -5.72%E -3.01%K -6.36%G +0.000% | 1.88I 53.19%NM 50.26%EV -5.28%E -2.81%K -6.01%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-10-11 12:35 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.90I 52.63%NM 48.65%EV -5.72%E -3.01%K -6.36%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 51.35%EV -9.32%E -5.18%K -11.64%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-10-10 13:53 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.87I 53.48%NM 50.00%EV -7.21%E -3.86%K -8.29%G +0.000% | 1.87I 53.48%NM 50.00%EV -5.79%E -3.10%K -6.65%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-10-11 12:34 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.87I 53.48%NM 50.00%EV -7.21%E -3.86%K -8.29%G +0.000% | 1.87I 53.48%NM 50.00%EV -5.79%E -3.10%K -6.65%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-10-10 14:00 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 1.87I 53.48%NM 50.00%EV -7.21%E -3.86%K -8.29%G +0.000% | 1.87I 53.48%NM 50.00%EV -5.79%E -3.10%K -6.65%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-10-10 13:59 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.87I 53.48%NM 49.73%EV -7.21%E -3.86%K -8.29%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 50.27%EV -6.80%E -3.67%K -8.00%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-10-11 05:01 |
| Fliff🎯 | 1.87I 53.48%NM 49.46%EV -7.21%E -3.86%K -8.29%G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 50.54%EV -7.80%E -4.26%K -9.40%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-10-11 12:29 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 50.00%EV -8.20%E -4.43%K -9.65%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 50.00%EV -6.80%E -3.67%K -8.00%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-10-11 10:49 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 49.18%EV -8.20%E -4.43%K -9.65%G +0.000% | 1.79I 55.87%NM 50.82%EV -9.82%E -5.49%K -12.43%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-10-11 00:24 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (7)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 2.10I 47.62%NM 47.37% | 1.89I 52.91%NM 52.63% | 0.5% | 2026-10-11 12:35 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 2.10I 47.62%NM 47.37% | 1.89I 52.91%NM 52.63% | 0.5% | 2026-10-11 12:35 |
| Matchbook◎ | 2.10I 47.62%NM 47.37% | 1.89I 52.91%NM 52.63% | 0.5% | 2026-10-11 12:35 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 2.08I 48.08%NM 47.61% | 1.89I 52.91%NM 52.39% | 1.0% | 2026-10-11 12:35 |
| ProphetX◎ | 2.07I 48.31%NM 47.59% | 1.88I 53.19%NM 52.41% | 1.5% | 2026-10-11 12:35 |
| Smarkets◎ | 2.04I 49.02%NM 48.09% | 1.89I 52.91%NM 51.91% | 1.9% | 2026-10-11 12:35 |
| Novig◎ | 2.15I 46.51%NM 45.57% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 54.43% | 2.1% | 2026-10-11 12:44 |