Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Alejandro Davidovich Fokina v Frances Tiafoe

2026-10-11 11:10 UTC — ATP Shanghai Masters

Head to Head

59 sportsbooks (18 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Alejandro Davidovich Fokina (Local)

Prediction 50.03%2.00fair odd
EV -2.45%
Edge -1.26%
Kelly -2.58%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.95

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
48.65%50.02%50.00%51.32%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.851.901.911.9554.05%52.69%52.36%51.28%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Frances Tiafoe (Visit)

Prediction 49.97%2.00fair odd
EV -1.05%
Edge -0.531%
Kelly -1.07%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.98

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
48.68%49.98%50.00%51.35%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.781.881.881.9856.18%53.12%53.19%50.51%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina (Local): 50.03%; Frances Tiafoe (Visit): 49.97%. For Frances Tiafoe (Visit), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.00. No eligible bookmaker offers odds above that level: the best available odds are 1.98, with an expected value of -1.05%; they do not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (59 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.95%EV -2.45%E -1.26%K -2.58%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 51.05%EV -6.55%E -3.50%K -7.53%G +0.000%4.8%2026-10-10 18:35
Winamax (DE)🎯1.94I 51.55%NM 49.74%EV -2.95%E -1.52%K -3.14%G +0.000%1.92I 52.08%NM 50.26%EV -4.05%E -2.11%K -4.40%G +0.000%3.6%2026-10-10 16:30
Unibet🎯1.94I 51.55%NM 48.95%EV -2.95%E -1.52%K -3.14%G +0.000%1.86I 53.76%NM 51.05%EV -7.05%E -3.79%K -8.20%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-10 18:40
Virgin Bet🎯1.94I 51.55%NM 48.95%EV -2.95%E -1.52%K -3.14%G +0.000%1.86I 53.76%NM 51.05%EV -7.05%E -3.79%K -8.20%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-10 18:40
LiveScore Bet🎯1.94I 51.55%NM 48.95%EV -2.95%E -1.52%K -3.14%G +0.000%1.86I 53.76%NM 51.05%EV -7.05%E -3.79%K -8.20%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-10 18:40
Pinnacle🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 50.64%EV -3.45%E -1.79%K -3.71%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 49.36%EV -1.05%E -0.531%K -1.07%G +0.000%2.3%2026-10-10 15:25
SportsBet🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 49.74%EV -3.45%E -1.79%K -3.71%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 50.26%EV -4.55%E -2.38%K -5.00%G +0.000%4.2%2026-10-10 19:46
GTbets🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 49.34%EV -3.45%E -1.79%K -3.71%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 50.66%EV -6.05%E -3.22%K -6.87%G +0.000%5.0%2026-10-10 14:00
Grosvenor🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 48.94%EV -3.45%E -1.79%K -3.71%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 51.06%EV -7.55%E -4.08%K -8.88%G +0.000%5.9%2026-10-10 18:40
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 48.94%EV -3.45%E -1.79%K -3.71%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 51.06%EV -7.55%E -4.08%K -8.88%G +0.000%5.9%2026-10-10 18:40
TABtouch🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 48.94%EV -3.45%E -1.79%K -3.71%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 51.06%EV -7.55%E -4.08%K -8.88%G +0.000%5.9%2026-10-10 18:40
Unibet (SE)🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 48.94%EV -3.45%E -1.79%K -3.71%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 51.06%EV -7.55%E -4.08%K -8.88%G +0.000%5.9%2026-10-10 18:40
Casumo🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 48.94%EV -3.45%E -1.79%K -3.71%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 51.06%EV -7.55%E -4.08%K -8.88%G +0.000%5.9%2026-10-10 18:40
BetRivers🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 48.94%EV -3.45%E -1.79%K -3.71%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 51.06%EV -7.55%E -4.08%K -8.88%G +0.000%5.9%2026-10-10 18:40
Unibet (NL)🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 48.94%EV -3.45%E -1.79%K -3.71%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 51.06%EV -7.55%E -4.08%K -8.88%G +0.000%5.9%2026-10-10 18:40
Bally Bet🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 48.94%EV -3.45%E -1.79%K -3.71%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 51.06%EV -7.55%E -4.08%K -8.88%G +0.000%5.9%2026-10-10 18:40
ATG (SE)🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 48.94%EV -3.45%E -1.79%K -3.71%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 51.06%EV -7.55%E -4.08%K -8.88%G +0.000%5.9%2026-10-10 18:40
Svenska Spel🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 48.94%EV -3.45%E -1.79%K -3.71%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 51.06%EV -7.55%E -4.08%K -8.88%G +0.000%5.9%2026-10-10 18:40
betPARX🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 48.94%EV -3.45%E -1.79%K -3.71%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 51.06%EV -7.55%E -4.08%K -8.88%G +0.000%5.9%2026-10-10 18:40
1xBet🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 50.00%EV -3.95%E -2.06%K -4.29%G +0.000%1.92I 52.08%NM 50.00%EV -4.05%E -2.11%K -4.40%G +0.000%4.2%2026-10-10 19:50
Fanatics🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -4.45%E -2.33%K -4.89%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -4.55%E -2.38%K -5.00%G +0.000%4.7%2026-10-10 13:59
FanDuel🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -4.45%E -2.33%K -4.89%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -4.55%E -2.38%K -5.00%G +0.000%4.7%2026-10-10 14:00
Sky Bet🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -4.45%E -2.33%K -4.89%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -4.55%E -2.38%K -5.00%G +0.000%4.7%2026-10-10 14:01
BoyleSports🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -4.45%E -2.33%K -4.89%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -4.55%E -2.38%K -5.00%G +0.000%4.7%2026-10-10 14:00
Bovada🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -4.45%E -2.33%K -4.89%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -4.55%E -2.38%K -5.00%G +0.000%4.7%2026-10-10 13:59
BetOnline.ag🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -4.45%E -2.33%K -4.89%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -4.55%E -2.38%K -5.00%G +0.000%4.7%2026-10-10 15:35
LowVig.ag🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -4.45%E -2.33%K -4.89%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -4.55%E -2.38%K -5.00%G +0.000%4.7%2026-10-10 15:35
NordicBet🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 49.87%EV -4.45%E -2.33%K -4.89%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 50.13%EV -5.05%E -2.66%K -5.61%G +0.000%5.0%2026-10-10 14:00
Betsson🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 49.87%EV -4.45%E -2.33%K -4.89%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 50.13%EV -5.05%E -2.66%K -5.61%G +0.000%5.0%2026-10-10 14:00
Paddy Power🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.93%EV -4.45%E -2.33%K -4.89%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 51.07%EV -8.55%E -4.67%K -10.30%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-10 19:45
BetAnything🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.93%EV -4.45%E -2.33%K -4.89%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 51.07%EV -8.55%E -4.67%K -10.30%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-10 18:24
Betway🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 50.00%EV -4.95%E -2.61%K -5.50%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 50.00%EV -5.05%E -2.66%K -5.61%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-10 14:00
Winamax (FR)🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 49.74%EV -4.95%E -2.61%K -5.50%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 50.26%EV -6.05%E -3.22%K -6.87%G +0.000%5.8%2026-10-10 16:30
Tipico (DE)🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 48.65%EV -4.95%E -2.61%K -5.50%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 51.35%EV -10.05%E -5.58%K -12.56%G +0.000%8.2%2026-10-10 13:53
DraftKings🎯1.89I 52.91%NM 50.39%EV -5.45%E -2.88%K -6.12%G +0.000%1.92I 52.08%NM 49.61%EV -4.05%E -2.11%K -4.40%G +0.000%5.0%2026-10-10 14:00
Coolbet🎯1.89I 52.91%NM 50.39%EV -5.45%E -2.88%K -6.12%G +0.000%1.92I 52.08%NM 49.61%EV -4.05%E -2.11%K -4.40%G +0.000%5.0%2026-10-10 14:01
Unibet (UK)🎯1.89I 52.91%NM 49.87%EV -5.45%E -2.88%K -6.12%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 50.13%EV -6.05%E -3.22%K -6.87%G +0.000%6.1%2026-10-10 17:10
Bet Right🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 50.53%EV -5.95%E -3.17%K -6.76%G +0.000%1.92I 52.08%NM 49.47%EV -4.05%E -2.11%K -4.40%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-10 19:45
BetMGM🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 50.53%EV -6.45%E -3.45%K -7.41%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 49.47%EV -4.55%E -2.38%K -5.00%G +0.000%5.8%2026-10-10 14:01
PlayUp🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 50.40%EV -6.45%E -3.45%K -7.41%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 49.60%EV -5.05%E -2.66%K -5.61%G +0.000%6.1%2026-10-10 14:01
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 50.40%EV -6.45%E -3.45%K -7.41%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 49.60%EV -5.05%E -2.66%K -5.61%G +0.000%6.1%2026-10-10 14:00
Neds🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 50.40%EV -6.45%E -3.45%K -7.41%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 49.60%EV -5.05%E -2.66%K -5.61%G +0.000%6.1%2026-10-10 14:01
Betr (AU)🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 50.40%EV -6.45%E -3.45%K -7.41%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 49.60%EV -5.05%E -2.66%K -5.61%G +0.000%6.1%2026-10-10 14:30
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 50.00%EV -6.45%E -3.45%K -7.41%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 50.00%EV -6.55%E -3.50%K -7.53%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-10 14:00
Bet Victor🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 50.00%EV -6.45%E -3.45%K -7.41%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 50.00%EV -6.55%E -3.50%K -7.53%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-10 14:00
betano_uk🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 50.00%EV -6.45%E -3.45%K -7.41%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 50.00%EV -6.55%E -3.50%K -7.53%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-10 13:59
theScore Bet🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 50.00%EV -6.45%E -3.45%K -7.41%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 50.00%EV -6.55%E -3.50%K -7.53%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-10 14:01
Unibet (FR)🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 49.87%EV -6.45%E -3.45%K -7.41%G +0.000%1.86I 53.76%NM 50.13%EV -7.05%E -3.79%K -8.20%G +0.000%7.2%2026-10-10 15:00
Fliff🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 49.46%EV -6.45%E -3.45%K -7.41%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 50.54%EV -8.55%E -4.67%K -10.30%G +0.000%8.1%2026-10-10 18:40
888sport🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 51.32%EV -7.45%E -4.03%K -8.77%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.68%EV -2.55%E -1.31%K -2.69%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-10 15:35
William Hill🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 51.32%EV -7.45%E -4.03%K -8.77%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.68%EV -2.55%E -1.31%K -2.69%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-10 15:35
TAB🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 51.32%EV -7.45%E -4.03%K -8.77%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.68%EV -2.55%E -1.31%K -2.69%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-10 15:25
888sport (SE)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 51.32%EV -7.45%E -4.03%K -8.77%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.68%EV -2.55%E -1.31%K -2.69%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-10 15:35
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 51.32%EV -7.45%E -4.03%K -8.77%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.68%EV -2.55%E -1.31%K -2.69%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-10 15:35
LeoVegas🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.00%EV -7.45%E -4.03%K -8.77%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 50.00%EV -7.55%E -4.08%K -8.88%G +0.000%8.1%2026-10-10 14:00
Coral🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.00%EV -7.45%E -4.03%K -8.77%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 50.00%EV -7.55%E -4.08%K -8.88%G +0.000%8.1%2026-10-10 14:00
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.00%EV -7.45%E -4.03%K -8.77%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 50.00%EV -7.55%E -4.08%K -8.88%G +0.000%8.1%2026-10-10 14:00
ReBet🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.00%EV -7.45%E -4.03%K -8.77%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 50.00%EV -7.55%E -4.08%K -8.88%G +0.000%8.1%2026-10-10 14:01
PMU (FR)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 49.04%EV -7.45%E -4.03%K -8.77%G +0.000%1.78I 56.18%NM 50.96%EV -11.05%E -6.21%K -14.16%G +0.000%10.2%2026-10-10 18:40
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (7)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.97I 50.76%NM 50.38%2.00I 50.00%NM 49.62%0.8%2026-10-10 20:05
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.97I 50.76%NM 50.38%2.00I 50.00%NM 49.62%0.8%2026-10-10 20:01
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.97I 50.76%NM 50.38%2.00I 50.00%NM 49.62%0.8%2026-10-10 20:01
Matchbook◎1.97I 50.76%NM 50.38%2.00I 50.00%NM 49.62%0.8%2026-10-10 20:00
Novig◎1.94I 51.55%NM 50.76%2.00I 50.00%NM 49.24%1.5%2026-10-10 15:30
Smarkets◎1.94I 51.55%NM 50.64%1.99I 50.25%NM 49.36%1.8%2026-10-10 19:41
ProphetX◎1.93I 51.81%NM 50.89%2.00I 50.00%NM 49.11%1.8%2026-10-10 18:55