Language:English
Alex de Minaur v Gabriel Diallo
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Alex de Minaur (Local)
Prediction 79.96%1.25fair odd
EV -0.855%
Edge -0.689%
Kelly -3.56%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.24
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
76.34%79.95%79.75%82.96%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.111.181.181.2490.09%85.06%84.75%80.65%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Gabriel Diallo (Visit)
Prediction 20.04%4.99fair odd
EV +10.24%
Edge +1.86%
Kelly +2.28%
Growth +0.233%
assuming max odds 5.50
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
17.04%20.05%20.25%23.66%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.004.694.705.5025.00%21.31%21.28%18.18%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Alex de Minaur (Local): 79.96%; Gabriel Diallo (Visit): 20.04%. For Gabriel Diallo (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.99. 13 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 5.50, corresponding to a positive expected value of +10.24%.
Sportsbook Odds (60 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Coral🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 82.96%EV -9.65%E -8.54%K -74.23%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.04%EV +10.24%E +1.86%K +2.28%G +0.233% | 6.7% | 2026-06-16 14:50 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 82.03%EV -8.05%E -7.00%K -53.67%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.97%EV +5.23%E +0.997%K +1.23%G +0.064% | 6.0% | 2026-06-16 14:50 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.11I 90.09%NM 82.55%EV -11.25%E -10.13%K -102.26%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.45%EV +5.23%E +0.997%K +1.23%G +0.064% | 9.1% | 2026-06-16 14:48 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.75%EV -6.45%E -5.51%K -37.95%G +0.000% | 5.24I 19.08%NM 18.25%EV +5.03%E +0.960%K +1.19%G +0.060% | 4.6% | 2026-06-16 14:50 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 81.25%EV -4.05%E -3.38%K -20.27%G +0.000% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 18.75%EV +4.23%E +0.813%K +1.01%G +0.043% | 2.6% | 2026-06-16 14:30 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 82.28%EV -10.45%E -9.33%K -87.08%G +0.000% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 17.72%EV +4.23%E +0.813%K +1.01%G +0.043% | 8.5% | 2026-06-16 14:50 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 81.36%EV -5.65%E -4.79%K -31.40%G +0.000% | 5.15I 19.42%NM 18.64%EV +3.23%E +0.627%K +0.778%G +0.025% | 4.2% | 2026-06-16 14:30 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 81.36%EV -5.65%E -4.79%K -31.40%G +0.000% | 5.15I 19.42%NM 18.64%EV +3.23%E +0.627%K +0.778%G +0.025% | 4.2% | 2026-06-16 14:30 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%EV -6.45%E -5.51%K -37.95%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV +0.221%E +0.044%K +0.055%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-06-16 14:30 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 81.43%EV -8.85%E -7.76%K -63.22%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.57%EV +0.221%E +0.044%K +0.055%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-06-16 14:30 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 81.43%EV -8.85%E -7.76%K -63.22%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.57%EV +0.221%E +0.044%K +0.055%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-06-16 14:30 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 81.43%EV -8.85%E -7.76%K -63.22%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.57%EV +0.221%E +0.044%K +0.055%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-06-16 14:50 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 81.43%EV -8.85%E -7.76%K -63.22%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.57%EV +0.221%E +0.044%K +0.055%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-06-16 14:30 |
| GTbets🎯 | 1.19I 84.03%NM 80.46%EV -4.85%E -4.08%K -25.54%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 19.54%EV -1.78%E -0.364%K -0.457%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-06-16 14:30 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 80.59%EV -5.65%E -4.79%K -31.40%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 19.41%EV -1.78%E -0.364%K -0.457%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-06-16 14:30 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 80.99%EV -8.05%E -7.00%K -53.67%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 19.01%EV -1.78%E -0.364%K -0.457%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-06-16 14:40 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 80.27%EV -5.65%E -4.79%K -31.40%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.73%EV -3.79%E -0.789%K -0.997%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-06-16 14:50 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 80.27%EV -5.65%E -4.79%K -31.40%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.73%EV -3.79%E -0.789%K -0.997%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-06-16 14:50 |
| Fliff🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 80.81%EV -8.85%E -7.76%K -63.22%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.19%EV -3.79%E -0.789%K -0.997%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-06-16 14:50 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 79.83%EV -4.05%E -3.38%K -20.27%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 20.17%EV -4.79%E -1.01%K -1.28%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-06-16 14:39 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.19I 84.03%NM 79.97%EV -4.85%E -4.08%K -25.54%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 20.03%EV -4.79%E -1.01%K -1.28%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-06-16 14:43 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 80.10%EV -5.65%E -4.79%K -31.40%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.90%EV -4.79%E -1.01%K -1.28%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-06-16 14:50 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 80.10%EV -5.65%E -4.79%K -31.40%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.90%EV -4.79%E -1.01%K -1.28%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-06-16 14:50 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 80.10%EV -5.65%E -4.79%K -31.40%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.90%EV -4.79%E -1.01%K -1.28%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-06-16 14:50 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 80.10%EV -5.65%E -4.79%K -31.40%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.90%EV -4.79%E -1.01%K -1.28%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-06-16 14:50 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 80.10%EV -5.65%E -4.79%K -31.40%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.90%EV -4.79%E -1.01%K -1.28%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-06-16 14:30 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 80.10%EV -5.65%E -4.79%K -31.40%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.90%EV -4.79%E -1.01%K -1.28%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-06-16 14:50 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 80.10%EV -5.65%E -4.79%K -31.40%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.90%EV -4.79%E -1.01%K -1.28%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-06-16 14:50 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 79.66%EV -4.05%E -3.38%K -20.27%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 20.34%EV -5.79%E -1.23%K -1.57%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-06-16 14:50 |
| ReBet🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 79.66%EV -4.05%E -3.38%K -20.27%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 20.34%EV -5.79%E -1.23%K -1.57%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-06-16 14:27 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 80.07%EV -6.45%E -5.51%K -37.95%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.93%EV -5.79%E -1.23%K -1.57%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-06-16 14:50 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 80.07%EV -6.45%E -5.51%K -37.95%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.93%EV -5.79%E -1.23%K -1.57%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-06-16 14:50 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.19I 84.03%NM 79.62%EV -4.85%E -4.08%K -25.54%G +0.000% | 4.65I 21.51%NM 20.38%EV -6.79%E -1.46%K -1.86%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-06-16 14:50 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 79.58%EV -5.65%E -4.79%K -31.40%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.42%EV -7.80%E -1.69%K -2.17%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-06-16 14:30 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 79.72%EV -6.45%E -5.51%K -37.95%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.28%EV -7.80%E -1.69%K -2.17%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-06-16 14:50 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 79.72%EV -6.45%E -5.51%K -37.95%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.28%EV -7.80%E -1.69%K -2.17%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-06-16 14:50 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 79.72%EV -6.45%E -5.51%K -37.95%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.28%EV -7.80%E -1.69%K -2.17%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-06-16 14:28 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.16I 86.21%NM 79.86%EV -7.25%E -6.25%K -45.32%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.14%EV -7.80%E -1.69%K -2.17%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-06-16 14:50 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.19I 84.03%NM 79.27%EV -4.85%E -4.08%K -25.54%G +0.000% | 4.55I 21.98%NM 20.73%EV -8.80%E -1.93%K -2.48%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-06-16 14:43 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.21I 82.64%NM 78.96%EV -3.25%E -2.69%K -15.49%G +0.000% | 4.54I 22.03%NM 21.04%EV -9.00%E -1.98%K -2.54%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-06-16 14:39 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 78.67%EV -2.45%E -2.01%K -11.15%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.33%EV -9.80%E -2.18%K -2.80%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-06-16 14:36 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 78.95%EV -4.05%E -3.38%K -20.27%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.05%EV -9.80%E -2.18%K -2.80%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-06-16 14:47 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 79.23%EV -5.65%E -4.79%K -31.40%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.77%EV -9.80%E -2.18%K -2.80%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-06-16 14:50 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 79.23%EV -5.65%E -4.79%K -31.40%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.77%EV -9.80%E -2.18%K -2.80%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-06-16 14:50 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 79.23%EV -5.65%E -4.79%K -31.40%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.77%EV -9.80%E -2.18%K -2.80%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-06-16 14:42 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 79.23%EV -5.65%E -4.79%K -31.40%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.77%EV -9.80%E -2.18%K -2.80%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-06-16 14:50 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 79.37%EV -6.45%E -5.51%K -37.95%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.63%EV -9.80%E -2.18%K -2.80%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-06-16 14:30 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 79.37%EV -6.45%E -5.51%K -37.95%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.63%EV -9.80%E -2.18%K -2.80%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-06-16 14:30 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.16I 86.21%NM 79.51%EV -7.25%E -6.25%K -45.32%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.49%EV -9.80%E -2.18%K -2.80%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-06-16 14:50 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 79.65%EV -8.05%E -7.00%K -53.67%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.35%EV -9.80%E -2.18%K -2.80%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-06-16 14:50 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 79.04%EV -5.65%E -4.79%K -31.40%G +0.000% | 4.45I 22.47%NM 20.96%EV -10.80%E -2.43%K -3.13%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-06-16 14:50 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 78.38%EV -4.05%E -3.38%K -20.27%G +0.000% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 21.62%EV -12.81%E -2.94%K -3.82%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-06-16 14:50 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 79.38%EV -9.65%E -8.54%K -74.23%G +0.000% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 20.62%EV -12.81%E -2.94%K -3.82%G +0.000% | 11.5% | 2026-06-16 14:50 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 78.30%EV -4.05%E -3.38%K -20.27%G +0.000% | 4.33I 23.09%NM 21.70%EV -13.21%E -3.05%K -3.97%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-06-16 14:50 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 78.18%EV -4.05%E -3.38%K -20.27%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.82%EV -13.81%E -3.21%K -4.18%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-06-16 14:50 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 78.61%EV -6.45%E -5.51%K -37.95%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.39%EV -13.81%E -3.21%K -4.18%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-06-16 14:50 |
| Caesars🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 77.78%EV -4.05%E -3.38%K -20.27%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.22%EV -15.81%E -3.77%K -4.94%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-06-16 14:45 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.34%EV -0.855%E -0.689%K -3.56%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.66%EV -19.82%E -4.96%K -6.61%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-06-16 14:46 |
| Dabble (AU)🎯 | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.34%EV -0.855%E -0.689%K -3.56%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.66%EV -19.82%E -4.96%K -6.61%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-06-16 14:46 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 77.37%EV -6.45%E -5.51%K -37.95%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.63%EV -19.82%E -4.96%K -6.61%G +0.000% | 10.5% | 2026-06-16 14:50 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (6)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.18I 84.75%NM 84.43% | 6.40I 15.63%NM 15.57% | 0.4% | 2026-06-16 14:50 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.18I 84.75%NM 84.43% | 6.40I 15.63%NM 15.57% | 0.4% | 2026-06-16 14:50 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.20I 83.33%NM 82.86% | 5.80I 17.24%NM 17.14% | 0.6% | 2026-06-16 14:50 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.21I 82.64%NM 81.97% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 18.03% | 0.8% | 2026-06-16 14:50 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.21I 82.64%NM 81.41% | 5.30I 18.87%NM 18.59% | 1.5% | 2026-06-16 14:50 |
| Novig◎ | 1.18I 84.75%NM 81.68% | 5.26I 19.01%NM 18.32% | 3.8% | 2026-06-16 14:50 |