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Moise Kouame v Ugo Humbert
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Moise Kouame (Local)
Prediction 22.06%4.53fair odd
EV +1.46%
Edge +0.317%
Kelly +0.404%
Growth +0.006%
assuming max odds 4.60
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
20.69%22.23%22.05%24.55%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.754.214.174.6026.67%23.76%23.98%21.74%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Ugo Humbert (Visit)
Prediction 77.94%1.28fair odd
EV -1.79%
Edge -1.42%
Kelly -6.89%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.26
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
75.45%77.77%77.95%79.31%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.171.221.221.2685.47%81.79%81.97%79.37%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Moise Kouame (Local): 22.06%; Ugo Humbert (Visit): 77.94%. For Moise Kouame (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.53. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.60, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.46%.
Sportsbook Odds (52 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.96%EV +1.46%E +0.317%K +0.404%G +0.006% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 79.04%EV -4.91%E -4.02%K -22.31%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-04-05 16:44 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.69%EV +1.46%E +0.317%K +0.404%G +0.006% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 79.31%EV -6.47%E -5.39%K -32.33%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-04-05 16:45 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.19%EV -0.750%E -0.167%K -0.214%G +0.000% | 1.21I 82.64%NM 78.81%EV -5.69%E -4.70%K -27.08%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-04-05 16:45 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.19%EV -0.750%E -0.167%K -0.214%G +0.000% | 1.21I 82.64%NM 78.81%EV -5.69%E -4.70%K -27.08%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-04-05 16:45 |
| 888sport🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.05%EV -0.750%E -0.167%K -0.214%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 78.95%EV -6.47%E -5.39%K -32.33%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-04-05 16:45 |
| William Hill🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.05%EV -0.750%E -0.167%K -0.214%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 78.95%EV -6.47%E -5.39%K -32.33%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-04-05 16:45 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.05%EV -0.750%E -0.167%K -0.214%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 78.95%EV -6.47%E -5.39%K -32.33%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-04-05 16:45 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.05%EV -0.750%E -0.167%K -0.214%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 78.95%EV -6.47%E -5.39%K -32.33%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-04-05 16:45 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.05%EV -0.750%E -0.167%K -0.214%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 78.95%EV -6.47%E -5.39%K -32.33%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-04-05 16:44 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 4.42I 22.62%NM 22.05%EV -2.51%E -0.569%K -0.735%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 77.95%EV -2.57%E -2.06%K -10.28%G +0.000% | 2.6% | 2026-04-05 16:55 |
| Betsson🎯 | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.57%EV -2.96%E -0.672%K -0.869%G +0.000% | 1.21I 82.64%NM 78.43%EV -5.69%E -4.70%K -27.08%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-04-05 16:44 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.57%EV -2.96%E -0.672%K -0.869%G +0.000% | 1.21I 82.64%NM 78.43%EV -5.69%E -4.70%K -27.08%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-04-05 16:44 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.57%EV -2.96%E -0.672%K -0.869%G +0.000% | 1.21I 82.64%NM 78.43%EV -5.69%E -4.70%K -27.08%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-04-05 16:44 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.57%EV -2.96%E -0.672%K -0.869%G +0.000% | 1.21I 82.64%NM 78.43%EV -5.69%E -4.70%K -27.08%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-04-05 16:45 |
| ReBet🎯 | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.57%EV -2.96%E -0.672%K -0.869%G +0.000% | 1.21I 82.64%NM 78.43%EV -5.69%E -4.70%K -27.08%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-04-05 16:44 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.82%EV -5.16%E -1.20%K -1.56%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 78.18%EV -6.47%E -5.39%K -32.33%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-04-05 16:44 |
| Bovada🎯 | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.59%EV -6.26%E -1.47%K -1.93%G +0.000% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 77.41%EV -3.35%E -2.70%K -13.95%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-04-05 16:53 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.02%EV -6.26%E -1.47%K -1.93%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 77.98%EV -6.47%E -5.39%K -32.33%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-04-05 16:45 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 4.23I 23.64%NM 22.53%EV -6.70%E -1.59%K -2.08%G +0.000% | 1.23I 81.30%NM 77.47%EV -4.13%E -3.36%K -17.95%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-04-05 16:55 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.65%EV -7.37%E -1.75%K -2.30%G +0.000% | 1.23I 81.30%NM 77.35%EV -4.13%E -3.36%K -17.95%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-04-05 17:05 |
| Coral🎯 | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.51%EV -7.37%E -1.75%K -2.30%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.49%EV -4.91%E -4.02%K -22.31%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-04-05 16:44 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.51%EV -7.37%E -1.75%K -2.30%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.49%EV -4.91%E -4.02%K -22.31%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-04-05 16:44 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.51%EV -7.37%E -1.75%K -2.30%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.49%EV -4.91%E -4.02%K -22.31%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-04-05 16:44 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.22%EV -7.37%E -1.75%K -2.30%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 77.78%EV -6.47%E -5.39%K -32.33%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-04-05 16:49 |
| Caesars🎯 | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.22%EV -7.37%E -1.75%K -2.30%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 77.78%EV -6.47%E -5.39%K -32.33%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-04-05 16:45 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 4.18I 23.92%NM 22.74%EV -7.81%E -1.87%K -2.46%G +0.000% | 1.23I 81.30%NM 77.26%EV -4.13%E -3.36%K -17.95%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-04-05 16:44 |
| GTbets🎯 | 4.16I 24.04%NM 22.82%EV -8.25%E -1.98%K -2.61%G +0.000% | 1.23I 81.30%NM 77.18%EV -4.13%E -3.36%K -17.95%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-05 17:04 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.22%EV -9.57%E -2.33%K -3.09%G +0.000% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.78%EV -3.35%E -2.70%K -13.95%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-04-05 17:04 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.22%EV -9.57%E -2.33%K -3.09%G +0.000% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.78%EV -3.35%E -2.70%K -13.95%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-04-05 16:55 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.22%EV -9.57%E -2.33%K -3.09%G +0.000% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.78%EV -3.35%E -2.70%K -13.95%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-04-05 16:55 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.22%EV -9.57%E -2.33%K -3.09%G +0.000% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.78%EV -3.35%E -2.70%K -13.95%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-04-05 16:55 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.22%EV -9.57%E -2.33%K -3.09%G +0.000% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.78%EV -3.35%E -2.70%K -13.95%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-04-05 16:55 |
| Casumo🎯 | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.22%EV -9.57%E -2.33%K -3.09%G +0.000% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.78%EV -3.35%E -2.70%K -13.95%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-04-05 16:55 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.22%EV -9.57%E -2.33%K -3.09%G +0.000% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.78%EV -3.35%E -2.70%K -13.95%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-04-05 16:55 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.22%EV -9.57%E -2.33%K -3.09%G +0.000% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.78%EV -3.35%E -2.70%K -13.95%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-04-05 16:55 |
| Unibet🎯 | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.22%EV -9.57%E -2.33%K -3.09%G +0.000% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.78%EV -3.35%E -2.70%K -13.95%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-04-05 16:55 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.22%EV -9.57%E -2.33%K -3.09%G +0.000% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.78%EV -3.35%E -2.70%K -13.95%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-04-05 16:55 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.22%EV -9.57%E -2.33%K -3.09%G +0.000% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.78%EV -3.35%E -2.70%K -13.95%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-04-05 16:55 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.22%EV -9.57%E -2.33%K -3.09%G +0.000% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.78%EV -3.35%E -2.70%K -13.95%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-04-05 16:55 |
| betPARX🎯 | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.22%EV -9.57%E -2.33%K -3.09%G +0.000% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.78%EV -3.35%E -2.70%K -13.95%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-04-05 16:55 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.22%EV -9.57%E -2.33%K -3.09%G +0.000% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.78%EV -3.35%E -2.70%K -13.95%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-04-05 16:55 |
| Betway🎯 | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.93%EV -9.57%E -2.33%K -3.09%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.07%EV -4.91%E -4.02%K -22.31%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-04-05 16:54 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 4.05I 24.69%NM 23.30%EV -10.67%E -2.64%K -3.50%G +0.000% | 1.23I 81.30%NM 76.70%EV -4.13%E -3.36%K -17.95%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-04-05 17:05 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 4.04I 24.75%NM 23.77%EV -10.90%E -2.70%K -3.58%G +0.000% | 1.26I 79.37%NM 76.23%EV -1.79%E -1.42%K -6.89%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-04-05 17:00 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 4.04I 24.75%NM 23.77%EV -10.90%E -2.70%K -3.58%G +0.000% | 1.26I 79.37%NM 76.23%EV -1.79%E -1.42%K -6.89%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-04-05 16:55 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.66%EV -11.78%E -2.94%K -3.93%G +0.000% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.34%EV -3.35%E -2.70%K -13.95%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-04-05 16:44 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.66%EV -11.78%E -2.94%K -3.93%G +0.000% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.34%EV -3.35%E -2.70%K -13.95%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-04-05 16:54 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.08%EV -11.78%E -2.94%K -3.93%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 76.92%EV -6.47%E -5.39%K -32.33%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-04-05 16:44 |
| Neds🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.08%EV -11.78%E -2.94%K -3.93%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 76.92%EV -6.47%E -5.39%K -32.33%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-04-05 16:44 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.83%EV -13.98%E -3.59%K -4.82%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 76.17%EV -4.91%E -4.02%K -22.31%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-04-05 16:55 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.08%EV -13.98%E -3.59%K -4.82%G +0.000% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 76.92%EV -8.81%E -7.53%K -51.79%G +0.000% | 11.1% | 2026-04-05 16:45 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.55%EV -17.29%E -4.61%K -6.29%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 75.45%EV -4.91%E -4.02%K -22.31%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-04-05 16:53 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (7)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matchbook◎ | 4.30I 23.26%NM 23.08% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 76.92% | 0.8% | 2026-04-05 17:00 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 4.30I 23.26%NM 23.08% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 76.92% | 0.8% | 2026-04-05 17:01 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 4.30I 23.26%NM 23.08% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 76.92% | 0.8% | 2026-04-05 17:01 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 4.30I 23.26%NM 23.08% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 76.92% | 0.8% | 2026-04-05 17:01 |
| ProphetX◎ | 4.25I 23.53%NM 23.29% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 76.71% | 1.0% | 2026-04-05 17:05 |
| Novig◎ | 4.27I 23.42%NM 23.06% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 76.94% | 1.5% | 2026-04-05 17:05 |
| Smarkets◎ | 4.30I 23.26%NM 22.66% | 1.26I 79.37%NM 77.34% | 2.6% | 2026-04-05 16:50 |