L’École des cotes

Francisco Cerundolo v Stefanos Tsitsipas

Coup d’envoi : 2026-04-06 13:50 UTC

Cotes de clôture — probabilités calculées et espérance mathématique obtenues, selon le modèle sélectionné, à partir des derniers prix enregistrés avant le coup d’envoi. Le match ayant commencé, il ne s’agit pas de valeurs en direct. Évaluer la fiabilité des prévisions probabilistes de chaque modèle sur l’ensemble des matchs réglés →

Résultat du match

58 opérateurs (20 dans l’analyse )

Probabilité estimée de chaque issue selon le modèle : IQM

Francisco Cerundolo (Local)

Prévision 64.79%1.54cote équitable
EV +17.92%
Avantage +9.85%
Kelly +21.85%
Croissance +3.92%

avec la cote maximale 1.82

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
52.60%63.24%65.16%67.92%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
1.361.541.501.8273.53%64.83%66.67%54.95%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Stefanos Tsitsipas (Visiteur)

Prévision 35.21%2.84cote équitable
EV +2.11%
Avantage +0.727%
Kelly +1.11%
Croissance +0.023%

avec la cote maximale 2.90

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
32.08%36.76%34.84%47.40%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
2.002.462.502.9050.00%40.73%40.00%34.48%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Cotes des opérateurs (58 opérateurs)

Nous ne sommes affiliés à aucun opérateur de paris et ne tirons aucun bénéfice des opérations réalisées auprès d’eux.

OpérateurLocal ▼VisiteurMargeMise à jour
1xBet1.82I 54.95%NM 52.60%EV +17.92%E +9.85%K +21.85%G +3.92%2.02I 49.50%NM 47.40%EV -28.88%E -14.30%K -28.31%G +0.000%4.5%2026-04-06 13:15
Pinnacle1.79I 55.87%NM 54.22%EV +15.97%E +8.92%K +20.22%G +3.23%2.12I 47.17%NM 45.78%EV -25.36%E -11.96%K -22.64%G +0.000%3.0%2026-04-06 13:20
BetOnline.ag1.79I 55.87%NM 53.51%EV +15.97%E +8.92%K +20.22%G +3.23%2.06I 48.54%NM 46.49%EV -27.47%E -13.33%K -25.91%G +0.000%4.4%2026-04-06 13:10
LowVig.ag1.79I 55.87%NM 53.51%EV +15.97%E +8.92%K +20.22%G +3.23%2.06I 48.54%NM 46.49%EV -27.47%E -13.33%K -25.91%G +0.000%4.4%2026-04-06 13:10
SportsBet1.75I 57.14%NM 54.55%EV +13.38%E +7.65%K +17.84%G +2.39%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.45%EV -26.06%E -12.41%K -23.69%G +0.000%4.8%2026-04-06 13:00
ReBet1.75I 57.14%NM 54.43%EV +13.38%E +7.65%K +17.84%G +2.39%2.09I 47.85%NM 45.57%EV -26.41%E -12.64%K -24.23%G +0.000%5.0%2026-04-06 13:01
PlayUp1.75I 57.14%NM 53.95%EV +13.38%E +7.65%K +17.84%G +2.39%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.05%EV -27.82%E -13.57%K -26.50%G +0.000%5.9%2026-04-06 13:00
Unibet (FR)1.74I 57.47%NM 54.09%EV +12.73%E +7.32%K +17.21%G +2.19%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.91%EV -27.82%E -13.57%K -26.50%G +0.000%6.3%2026-04-06 13:00
Bet Right1.73I 57.80%NM 54.95%EV +12.09%E +6.99%K +16.56%G +2.00%2.11I 47.39%NM 45.05%EV -25.71%E -12.18%K -23.16%G +0.000%5.2%2026-04-06 13:23
William Hill1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV +12.09%E +6.99%K +16.56%G +2.00%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -26.06%E -12.41%K -23.69%G +0.000%5.4%2026-04-06 13:00
Ladbrokes (AU)1.73I 57.80%NM 53.62%EV +12.09%E +6.99%K +16.56%G +2.00%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.38%EV -29.58%E -14.79%K -29.58%G +0.000%7.8%2026-04-06 13:00
Neds1.73I 57.80%NM 53.62%EV +12.09%E +6.99%K +16.56%G +2.00%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.38%EV -29.58%E -14.79%K -29.58%G +0.000%7.8%2026-04-06 13:00
Bally Bet1.72I 58.14%NM 55.21%EV +11.44%E +6.65%K +15.89%G +1.82%2.12I 47.17%NM 44.79%EV -25.36%E -11.96%K -22.64%G +0.000%5.3%2026-04-06 13:23
Betr (AU)1.72I 58.14%NM 54.97%EV +11.44%E +6.65%K +15.89%G +1.82%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.03%EV -26.06%E -12.41%K -23.69%G +0.000%5.8%2026-04-06 13:15
NetBet (FR)1.72I 58.14%NM 54.01%EV +11.44%E +6.65%K +15.89%G +1.82%2.02I 49.50%NM 45.99%EV -28.88%E -14.30%K -28.31%G +0.000%7.6%2026-04-06 13:05
GTbets1.71I 58.48%NM 55.70%EV +10.79%E +6.31%K +15.20%G +1.64%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.30%EV -24.30%E -11.30%K -21.13%G +0.000%5.0%2026-04-06 13:00
Bovada1.69I 59.17%NM 56.56%EV +9.50%E +5.62%K +13.76%G +1.31%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.44%EV -22.54%E -10.24%K -18.78%G +0.000%4.6%2026-04-06 13:28
Betway1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -0.871%E -0.569%K -1.64%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -11.98%E -4.79%K -7.98%G +0.000%5.4%2026-04-06 13:30
Hard Rock Bet1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -0.871%E -0.569%K -1.64%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -11.98%E -4.79%K -7.98%G +0.000%5.4%2026-04-06 13:30
Betclic (FR)1.52I 65.79%NM 60.21%EV -1.52%E -0.999%K -2.92%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.79%EV -19.02%E -8.27%K -14.63%G +0.000%9.3%2026-04-06 13:28
Unibet (NL)1.51I 66.23%NM 62.34%EV -2.17%E -1.43%K -4.25%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.66%EV -11.98%E -4.79%K -7.98%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-06 13:30
Casumo1.51I 66.23%NM 62.34%EV -2.17%E -1.43%K -4.25%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.66%EV -11.98%E -4.79%K -7.98%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-06 13:30
Unibet (SE)1.51I 66.23%NM 62.34%EV -2.17%E -1.43%K -4.25%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.66%EV -11.98%E -4.79%K -7.98%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-06 13:30
betPARX1.51I 66.23%NM 62.34%EV -2.17%E -1.43%K -4.25%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.66%EV -11.98%E -4.79%K -7.98%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-06 13:30
ATG (SE)1.51I 66.23%NM 62.34%EV -2.17%E -1.43%K -4.25%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.66%EV -11.98%E -4.79%K -7.98%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-06 13:30
Svenska Spel1.51I 66.23%NM 62.34%EV -2.17%E -1.43%K -4.25%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.66%EV -11.98%E -4.79%K -7.98%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-06 13:30
BoyleSports1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -2.81%E -1.88%K -5.63%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -11.98%E -4.79%K -7.98%G +0.000%6.7%2026-04-06 13:30
TABtouch1.50I 66.67%NM 62.31%EV -2.81%E -1.88%K -5.63%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 37.69%EV -12.68%E -5.11%K -8.57%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-06 13:30
Grosvenor1.50I 66.67%NM 62.03%EV -2.81%E -1.88%K -5.63%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.97%EV -13.74%E -5.61%K -9.47%G +0.000%7.5%2026-04-06 13:30
Virgin Bet1.50I 66.67%NM 62.03%EV -2.81%E -1.88%K -5.63%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.97%EV -13.74%E -5.61%K -9.47%G +0.000%7.5%2026-04-06 13:30
LiveScore Bet1.50I 66.67%NM 62.03%EV -2.81%E -1.88%K -5.63%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.97%EV -13.74%E -5.61%K -9.47%G +0.000%7.5%2026-04-06 13:30
Ladbrokes (UK)1.48I 67.57%NM 63.73%EV -4.11%E -2.78%K -8.56%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.27%EV -8.45%E -3.25%K -5.28%G +0.000%6.0%2026-04-06 13:30
Caesars1.48I 67.57%NM 63.73%EV -4.11%E -2.78%K -8.56%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.27%EV -8.45%E -3.25%K -5.28%G +0.000%6.0%2026-04-06 13:30
LeoVegas1.48I 67.57%NM 62.15%EV -4.11%E -2.78%K -8.56%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 37.85%EV -14.44%E -5.94%K -10.10%G +0.000%8.7%2026-04-06 13:30
Unibet1.47I 68.03%NM 64.75%EV -4.76%E -3.24%K -10.12%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.25%EV -4.93%E -1.83%K -2.90%G +0.000%5.1%2026-04-06 13:30
LeoVegas (SE)1.47I 68.03%NM 62.02%EV -4.76%E -3.24%K -10.12%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.98%EV -15.50%E -6.46%K -11.07%G +0.000%9.7%2026-04-06 13:30
Coolbet1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%EV -6.05%E -4.18%K -13.45%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV -3.17%E -1.15%K -1.81%G +0.000%5.3%2026-04-06 13:30
Betsson1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%EV -6.05%E -4.18%K -13.45%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV -3.17%E -1.15%K -1.81%G +0.000%5.3%2026-04-06 13:30
Unibet (UK)1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%EV -6.05%E -4.18%K -13.45%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV -3.17%E -1.15%K -1.81%G +0.000%5.3%2026-04-06 13:30
NordicBet1.45I 68.97%NM 65.06%EV -6.05%E -4.18%K -13.45%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.94%EV -4.93%E -1.83%K -2.90%G +0.000%6.0%2026-04-06 13:30
DraftKings1.44I 69.44%NM 65.55%EV -6.70%E -4.65%K -15.23%G +0.000%2.74I 36.50%NM 34.45%EV -3.53%E -1.29%K -2.03%G +0.000%5.9%2026-04-06 13:30
theScore Bet1.44I 69.44%NM 65.22%EV -6.70%E -4.65%K -15.23%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.78%EV -4.93%E -1.83%K -2.90%G +0.000%6.5%2026-04-06 13:30
888sport1.44I 69.44%NM 64.53%EV -6.70%E -4.65%K -15.23%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 35.47%EV -7.75%E -2.96%K -4.78%G +0.000%7.6%2026-04-06 13:30
Mr Green (SE)1.44I 69.44%NM 64.53%EV -6.70%E -4.65%K -15.23%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 35.47%EV -7.75%E -2.96%K -4.78%G +0.000%7.6%2026-04-06 13:30
888sport (SE)1.44I 69.44%NM 64.53%EV -6.70%E -4.65%K -15.23%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 35.47%EV -7.75%E -2.96%K -4.78%G +0.000%7.6%2026-04-06 13:30
FanDuel1.43I 69.93%NM 65.79%EV -7.35%E -5.14%K -17.09%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.21%EV -3.17%E -1.15%K -1.81%G +0.000%6.3%2026-04-06 13:29
Fliff1.43I 69.93%NM 64.52%EV -7.35%E -5.14%K -17.09%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.48%EV -8.45%E -3.25%K -5.28%G +0.000%8.4%2026-04-06 13:30
PMU (FR)1.43I 69.93%NM 62.17%EV -7.35%E -5.14%K -17.09%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 37.83%EV -17.26%E -7.34%K -12.78%G +0.000%12.5%2026-04-06 13:30
Winamax (DE)1.42I 70.42%NM 65.53%EV -8.00%E -5.63%K -19.04%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.47%EV -4.93%E -1.83%K -2.90%G +0.000%7.5%2026-04-06 13:30
Fanatics1.42I 70.42%NM 65.11%EV -8.00%E -5.63%K -19.04%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 34.89%EV -6.69%E -2.53%K -4.06%G +0.000%8.2%2026-04-06 13:30
Winamax (FR)1.41I 70.92%NM 64.84%EV -8.65%E -6.13%K -21.09%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.16%EV -8.45%E -3.25%K -5.28%G +0.000%9.4%2026-04-06 13:30
PointsBet (AU)1.40I 71.43%NM 67.06%EV -9.29%E -6.64%K -23.23%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.94%EV +0.348%E +0.122%K +0.188%G +0.001%6.5%2026-04-06 13:30
Bet Victor1.40I 71.43%NM 66.67%EV -9.29%E -6.64%K -23.23%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.33%EV -1.41%E -0.505%K -0.785%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-06 13:29
BetMGM1.40I 71.43%NM 66.67%EV -9.29%E -6.64%K -23.23%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.33%EV -1.41%E -0.505%K -0.785%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-06 13:29
Tipico (DE)1.40I 71.43%NM 66.67%EV -9.29%E -6.64%K -23.23%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.33%EV -1.41%E -0.505%K -0.785%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-06 13:30
Coral1.40I 71.43%NM 66.27%EV -9.29%E -6.64%K -23.23%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%EV -3.17%E -1.15%K -1.81%G +0.000%7.8%2026-04-06 13:30
TAB1.38I 72.46%NM 67.76%EV -10.59%E -7.67%K -27.87%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.24%EV +2.11%E +0.727%K +1.11%G +0.023%6.9%2026-04-06 13:30
Paddy Power1.36I 73.53%NM 67.92%EV -11.89%E -8.74%K -33.01%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.08%EV +1.40%E +0.488%K +0.747%G +0.010%8.3%2026-04-06 13:30
Marge = Marge · I = Probabilité implicite · NM = Probabilité sans marge · EV = Espérance mathématique · E = Avantage · K = Critère de Kelly · G = Croissance du capital de jeu

Mise à jour indique le dernier changement de prix de chaque opérateur. Une heure ancienne signifie donc seulement que la cote n’a pas bougé, et non qu’elle est périmée. Les opérateurs absents du flux depuis environ 15 minutes sont normalement écartés ; les derniers prix enregistrés ne sont conservés que si le flux de tout le marché devient silencieux.

Plateformes d’échange (7)

OpérateurLocalVisiteurMarge ▲Mise à jour
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.43I 69.93%NM 69.44%3.25I 30.77%NM 30.56%0.7%2026-04-06 13:30
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.61I 62.11%NM 61.58%2.58I 38.76%NM 38.42%0.9%2026-04-06 13:30
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.60I 62.50%NM 61.54%2.56I 39.06%NM 38.46%1.6%2026-04-06 13:30
Smarkets1.40I 71.43%NM 70.21%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.79%1.7%2026-04-06 13:30
Matchbook1.44I 69.44%NM 67.57%3.00I 33.33%NM 32.43%2.8%2026-04-06 13:30
Novig1.44I 69.44%NM 66.97%2.92I 34.25%NM 33.03%3.7%2026-04-06 13:30
ProphetX1.37I 72.99%NM 69.69%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.31%4.7%2026-04-06 13:30