La escuela de los momiosIdioma:Español
Cristian Garin v Matteo Arnaldi
Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →
Resultado del partido
Cristian Garin (Local)
Predicción 63.48%1.58momio equitativo
EV +6.02%
Ventaja +3.60%
Kelly +8.98%
Crecimiento +0.541%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.67
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
56.85%63.08%63.35%66.04%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
1.401.521.501.6771.43%65.78%66.67%59.88%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Matteo Arnaldi (Visitante)
Predicción 36.52%2.74momio equitativo
EV +2.25%
Ventaja +0.802%
Kelly +1.25%
Crecimiento +0.028%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.80
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
33.96%36.92%36.65%43.15%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
2.202.492.512.8045.45%40.16%39.76%35.71%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Momios de las casas de apuestas (58 corredores)
No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.
| Corredor | Local ▼ | Visitante | Margen | Actualizado |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| William Hill | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV +6.02%E +3.60%K +8.98%G +0.541% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -19.66%E -8.94%K -16.39%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-05 19:19 |
| BetOnline.ag | 1.66I 60.24%NM 58.29%EV +5.38%E +3.24%K +8.16%G +0.439% | 2.32I 43.10%NM 41.71%EV -15.28%E -6.59%K -11.58%G +0.000% | 3.3% | 2026-04-06 09:55 |
| LowVig.ag | 1.66I 60.24%NM 58.29%EV +5.38%E +3.24%K +8.16%G +0.439% | 2.32I 43.10%NM 41.71%EV -15.28%E -6.59%K -11.58%G +0.000% | 3.3% | 2026-04-06 09:55 |
| Pinnacle | 1.65I 60.61%NM 58.75%EV +4.75%E +2.88%K +7.31%G +0.347% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 41.25%EV -14.19%E -6.04%K -10.51%G +0.000% | 3.2% | 2026-04-06 11:00 |
| GTbets | 1.65I 60.61%NM 58.65%EV +4.75%E +2.88%K +7.31%G +0.347% | 2.34I 42.74%NM 41.35%EV -14.55%E -6.22%K -10.86%G +0.000% | 3.3% | 2026-04-06 10:30 |
| Bovada | 1.65I 60.61%NM 58.23%EV +4.75%E +2.88%K +7.31%G +0.347% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.77%EV -16.01%E -6.96%K -12.32%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-04-05 21:25 |
| NordicBet | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV +4.75%E +2.88%K +7.31%G +0.347% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -17.84%E -7.93%K -14.27%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-04-06 12:40 |
| SportsBet | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV +4.75%E +2.88%K +7.31%G +0.347% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -17.84%E -7.93%K -14.27%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-04-06 10:30 |
| ReBet | 1.63I 61.35%NM 58.52%EV +3.48%E +2.13%K +5.52%G +0.192% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.48%EV -16.01%E -6.96%K -12.32%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-04-06 11:00 |
| Bet Right | 1.63I 61.35%NM 58.31%EV +3.48%E +2.13%K +5.52%G +0.192% | 2.28I 43.86%NM 41.69%EV -16.74%E -7.34%K -13.08%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-04-06 11:10 |
| PlayUp | 1.63I 61.35%NM 57.99%EV +3.48%E +2.13%K +5.52%G +0.192% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.01%EV -17.84%E -7.93%K -14.27%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-04-06 06:45 |
| 1xBet | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.78%EV +2.84%E +1.76%K +4.59%G +0.130% | 2.31I 43.29%NM 41.22%EV -15.65%E -6.77%K -11.94%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-04-06 12:25 |
| Neds | 1.62I 61.73%NM 57.59%EV +2.84%E +1.76%K +4.59%G +0.130% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.41%EV -19.66%E -8.94%K -16.39%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-04-05 18:19 |
| Ladbrokes (AU) | 1.62I 61.73%NM 57.59%EV +2.84%E +1.76%K +4.59%G +0.130% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.41%EV -19.66%E -8.94%K -16.39%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-04-05 18:20 |
| Betr (AU) | 1.61I 62.11%NM 58.29%EV +2.21%E +1.37%K +3.62%G +0.080% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.71%EV -17.84%E -7.93%K -14.27%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-04-06 11:30 |
| Unibet (FR) | 1.61I 62.11%NM 58.29%EV +2.21%E +1.37%K +3.62%G +0.080% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.71%EV -17.84%E -7.93%K -14.27%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-04-06 11:49 |
| Bally Bet | 1.60I 62.50%NM 59.29%EV +1.57%E +0.984%K +2.62%G +0.041% | 2.33I 42.92%NM 40.71%EV -14.92%E -6.40%K -11.22%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-04-06 11:05 |
| NetBet (FR) | 1.58I 63.29%NM 58.75%EV +0.305%E +0.193%K +0.525%G +0.002% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.25%EV -17.84%E -7.93%K -14.27%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-04-06 09:35 |
| Unibet (NL) | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -0.330%E -0.210%K -0.580%G +0.000% | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -13.09%E -5.50%K -9.49%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-04-06 12:40 |
| TABtouch | 1.56I 64.10%NM 60.10%EV -0.965%E -0.619%K -1.72%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 39.90%EV -14.19%E -6.04%K -10.51%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-04-06 12:40 |
| FanDuel | 1.54I 64.94%NM 61.88%EV -2.23%E -1.45%K -4.14%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 38.12%EV -8.71%E -3.48%K -5.81%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-04-06 12:40 |
| Unibet (UK) | 1.52I 65.79%NM 62.47%EV -3.50%E -2.31%K -6.74%G +0.000% | 2.53I 39.53%NM 37.53%EV -7.61%E -3.01%K -4.98%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-06 12:40 |
| Betsson | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -4.77%E -3.18%K -9.55%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -5.06%E -1.95%K -3.16%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-04-06 12:40 |
| Unibet (SE) | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -4.77%E -3.18%K -9.55%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -5.06%E -1.95%K -3.16%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-04-06 12:40 |
| Svenska Spel | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -4.77%E -3.18%K -9.55%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -5.06%E -1.95%K -3.16%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-04-06 12:40 |
| betPARX | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -4.77%E -3.18%K -9.55%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -5.06%E -1.95%K -3.16%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-04-06 12:40 |
| Hard Rock Bet | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -4.77%E -3.18%K -9.55%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -5.06%E -1.95%K -3.16%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-04-06 12:40 |
| 888sport | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -4.77%E -3.18%K -9.55%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -8.71%E -3.48%K -5.81%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-04-06 12:40 |
| Mr Green (SE) | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -4.77%E -3.18%K -9.55%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -8.71%E -3.48%K -5.81%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-04-06 12:40 |
| 888sport (SE) | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -4.77%E -3.18%K -9.55%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -8.71%E -3.48%K -5.81%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-04-06 12:40 |
| Virgin Bet | 1.49I 67.11%NM 63.12%EV -5.41%E -3.63%K -11.04%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 36.88%EV -6.88%E -2.70%K -4.44%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-04-06 12:40 |
| Grosvenor | 1.49I 67.11%NM 63.12%EV -5.41%E -3.63%K -11.04%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 36.88%EV -6.88%E -2.70%K -4.44%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-04-06 12:40 |
| Coral | 1.48I 67.57%NM 63.73%EV -6.04%E -4.08%K -12.59%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.27%EV -5.06%E -1.95%K -3.16%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-04-06 12:40 |
| Caesars | 1.48I 67.57%NM 63.73%EV -6.04%E -4.08%K -12.59%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.27%EV -5.06%E -1.95%K -3.16%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-04-06 12:40 |
| BetMGM | 1.48I 67.57%NM 63.18%EV -6.04%E -4.08%K -12.59%G +0.000% | 2.54I 39.37%NM 36.82%EV -7.25%E -2.85%K -4.71%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-04-06 12:40 |
| Casumo | 1.47I 68.03%NM 64.32%EV -6.68%E -4.54%K -14.21%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.68%EV -3.23%E -1.22%K -1.96%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-04-06 12:40 |
| ATG (SE) | 1.47I 68.03%NM 64.32%EV -6.68%E -4.54%K -14.21%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.68%EV -3.23%E -1.22%K -1.96%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-04-06 12:40 |
| theScore Bet | 1.47I 68.03%NM 63.88%EV -6.68%E -4.54%K -14.21%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.12%EV -5.06%E -1.95%K -3.16%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-04-06 12:40 |
| Coolbet | 1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%EV -7.95%E -5.48%K -17.66%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV +0.419%E +0.153%K +0.240%G +0.001% | 5.3% | 2026-04-06 12:40 |
| DraftKings | 1.45I 68.97%NM 65.14%EV -7.95%E -5.48%K -17.66%G +0.000% | 2.71I 36.90%NM 34.86%EV -1.04%E -0.384%K -0.609%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-04-06 12:40 |
| Tipico (DE) | 1.45I 68.97%NM 64.20%EV -7.95%E -5.48%K -17.66%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.80%EV -5.06%E -1.95%K -3.16%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-04-06 12:40 |
| LiveScore Bet | 1.45I 68.97%NM 64.20%EV -7.95%E -5.48%K -17.66%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.80%EV -5.06%E -1.95%K -3.16%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-04-06 12:40 |
| Betclic (FR) | 1.45I 68.97%NM 63.29%EV -7.95%E -5.48%K -17.66%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 36.71%EV -8.71%E -3.48%K -5.81%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-04-06 12:40 |
| Fanatics | 1.45I 68.97%NM 63.29%EV -7.95%E -5.48%K -17.66%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 36.71%EV -8.71%E -3.48%K -5.81%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-04-06 12:40 |
| LeoVegas (SE) | 1.45I 68.97%NM 63.29%EV -7.95%E -5.48%K -17.66%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 36.71%EV -8.71%E -3.48%K -5.81%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-04-06 12:40 |
| Winamax (FR) | 1.45I 68.97%NM 62.82%EV -7.95%E -5.48%K -17.66%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 37.18%EV -10.54%E -4.30%K -7.27%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-04-06 12:40 |
| Betway | 1.44I 69.44%NM 66.04%EV -8.58%E -5.96%K -19.51%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.96%EV +2.25%E +0.802%K +1.25%G +0.028% | 5.2% | 2026-04-06 12:39 |
| Unibet | 1.44I 69.44%NM 66.04%EV -8.58%E -5.96%K -19.51%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.96%EV +2.25%E +0.802%K +1.25%G +0.028% | 5.2% | 2026-04-06 12:40 |
| Bet Victor | 1.44I 69.44%NM 65.22%EV -8.58%E -5.96%K -19.51%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.78%EV -1.41%E -0.521%K -0.827%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-04-06 12:39 |
| PointsBet (AU) | 1.44I 69.44%NM 64.79%EV -8.58%E -5.96%K -19.51%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.21%EV -3.23%E -1.22%K -1.96%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-04-06 12:40 |
| Paddy Power | 1.44I 69.44%NM 64.53%EV -8.58%E -5.96%K -19.51%G +0.000% | 2.62I 38.17%NM 35.47%EV -4.33%E -1.65%K -2.67%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-04-06 12:40 |
| Ladbrokes (UK) | 1.44I 69.44%NM 64.53%EV -8.58%E -5.96%K -19.51%G +0.000% | 2.62I 38.17%NM 35.47%EV -4.33%E -1.65%K -2.67%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-04-06 12:40 |
| BoyleSports | 1.44I 69.44%NM 64.53%EV -8.58%E -5.96%K -19.51%G +0.000% | 2.62I 38.17%NM 35.47%EV -4.33%E -1.65%K -2.67%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-04-06 12:40 |
| Winamax (DE) | 1.43I 69.93%NM 64.95%EV -9.22%E -6.45%K -21.44%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.05%EV -3.23%E -1.22%K -1.96%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-04-06 12:40 |
| LeoVegas | 1.43I 69.93%NM 64.07%EV -9.22%E -6.45%K -21.44%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 35.93%EV -6.88%E -2.70%K -4.44%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-04-06 12:40 |
| TAB | 1.42I 70.42%NM 65.53%EV -9.85%E -6.94%K -23.46%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.47%EV -1.41%E -0.521%K -0.827%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-04-06 12:40 |
| Fliff | 1.40I 71.43%NM 65.43%EV -11.12%E -7.94%K -27.81%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 34.57%EV -3.23%E -1.22%K -1.96%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-04-06 12:40 |
| PMU (FR) | 1.40I 71.43%NM 64.10%EV -11.12%E -7.94%K -27.81%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 35.90%EV -8.71%E -3.48%K -5.81%G +0.000% | 11.4% | 2026-04-06 12:40 |
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas
Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.
Bolsas de apuestas (6)
| Corredor | Local | Visitante | Margen ▲ | Actualizado |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (EU) | 1.55I 64.52%NM 64.20% | 2.78I 35.97%NM 35.80% | 0.5% | 2026-04-06 12:40 |
| Smarkets | 1.55I 64.52%NM 64.04% | 2.76I 36.23%NM 35.96% | 0.7% | 2026-04-06 12:40 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK) | 1.41I 70.92%NM 68.03% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.97% | 4.3% | 2026-04-06 12:40 |
| Matchbook | 1.55I 64.52%NM 61.54% | 2.48I 40.32%NM 38.46% | 4.8% | 2026-04-06 12:40 |
| Novig | 1.45I 68.97%NM 64.89% | 2.68I 37.31%NM 35.11% | 6.3% | 2026-04-06 12:40 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU) | 1.41I 70.92%NM 66.19% | 2.76I 36.23%NM 33.81% | 7.2% | 2026-04-06 12:40 |