L’École des cotes

Tommy Paul v Adrian Mannarino

Coup d’envoi : 2026-03-20 20:03 UTC

Cotes de clôture — probabilités calculées et espérance mathématique obtenues, selon le modèle sélectionné, à partir des derniers prix enregistrés avant le coup d’envoi. Le match ayant commencé, il ne s’agit pas de valeurs en direct. Évaluer la fiabilité des prévisions probabilistes de chaque modèle sur l’ensemble des matchs réglés →

Résultat du match

51 opérateurs (16 dans l’analyse )

Probabilité estimée de chaque issue selon le modèle : IQM

Tommy Paul (Local)

Prévision 79.67%1.26cote équitable
EV -2.01%
Avantage -1.63%
Kelly -8.72%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 1.23

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
77.49%79.78%79.52%82.71%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
1.141.191.181.2387.72%84.30%84.75%81.30%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Adrian Mannarino (Visiteur)

Prévision 20.33%4.92cote équitable
EV +11.82%
Avantage +2.15%
Kelly +2.63%
Croissance +0.310%

avec la cote maximale 5.50

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
17.29%20.22%20.48%22.51%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
4.204.604.575.5023.81%21.74%21.88%18.18%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Cotes des opérateurs (51 opérateurs)

Nous ne sommes affiliés à aucun opérateur de paris et ne tirons aucun bénéfice des opérations réalisées auprès d’eux.

OpérateurLocalVisiteur ▼MargeMise à jour
FanDuel1.15I 86.96%NM 82.71%EV -8.38%E -7.29%K -55.87%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.29%EV +11.82%E +2.15%K +2.63%G +0.310%5.1%2026-03-20 20:00
DraftKings1.18I 84.75%NM 81.12%EV -5.99%E -5.08%K -33.28%G +0.000%5.07I 19.72%NM 18.88%EV +3.07%E +0.606%K +0.755%G +0.023%4.5%2026-03-20 20:00
Ladbrokes (UK)1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%EV -6.79%E -5.80%K -39.92%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV +1.65%E +0.330%K +0.413%G +0.007%5.5%2026-03-20 20:00
Coral1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%EV -6.79%E -5.80%K -39.92%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV +1.65%E +0.330%K +0.413%G +0.007%5.5%2026-03-20 20:00
Paddy Power1.14I 87.72%NM 81.43%EV -9.18%E -8.05%K -65.55%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.57%EV +1.65%E +0.330%K +0.413%G +0.007%7.7%2026-03-20 20:00
BoyleSports1.14I 87.72%NM 81.43%EV -9.18%E -8.05%K -65.55%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.57%EV +1.65%E +0.330%K +0.413%G +0.007%7.7%2026-03-20 20:00
Winamax (DE)1.17I 85.47%NM 80.72%EV -6.79%E -5.80%K -39.92%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.28%EV -0.382%E -0.078%K -0.098%G +0.000%5.9%2026-03-20 20:00
Caesars1.17I 85.47%NM 80.40%EV -6.79%E -5.80%K -39.92%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.60%EV -2.41%E -0.503%K -0.635%G +0.000%6.3%2026-03-20 19:59
Fliff1.14I 87.72%NM 80.81%EV -9.18%E -8.05%K -65.55%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.19%EV -2.41%E -0.503%K -0.635%G +0.000%8.6%2026-03-20 20:00
Unibet (NL)1.19I 84.03%NM 79.97%EV -5.19%E -4.36%K -27.33%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 20.03%EV -3.43%E -0.722%K -0.915%G +0.000%5.1%2026-03-20 20:00
Casumo1.19I 84.03%NM 79.97%EV -5.19%E -4.36%K -27.33%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 20.03%EV -3.43%E -0.722%K -0.915%G +0.000%5.1%2026-03-20 20:00
Unibet (SE)1.19I 84.03%NM 79.97%EV -5.19%E -4.36%K -27.33%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 20.03%EV -3.43%E -0.722%K -0.915%G +0.000%5.1%2026-03-20 20:00
Unibet1.19I 84.03%NM 79.97%EV -5.19%E -4.36%K -27.33%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 20.03%EV -3.43%E -0.722%K -0.915%G +0.000%5.1%2026-03-20 20:00
ATG (SE)1.19I 84.03%NM 79.97%EV -5.19%E -4.36%K -27.33%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 20.03%EV -3.43%E -0.722%K -0.915%G +0.000%5.1%2026-03-20 20:00
Hard Rock Bet1.19I 84.03%NM 79.97%EV -5.19%E -4.36%K -27.33%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 20.03%EV -3.43%E -0.722%K -0.915%G +0.000%5.1%2026-03-20 19:59
Betway1.18I 84.75%NM 80.10%EV -5.99%E -5.08%K -33.28%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.90%EV -3.43%E -0.722%K -0.915%G +0.000%5.8%2026-03-20 20:00
Bet Victor1.17I 85.47%NM 80.24%EV -6.79%E -5.80%K -39.92%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.76%EV -3.43%E -0.722%K -0.915%G +0.000%6.5%2026-03-20 19:58
SportsBet1.18I 84.75%NM 79.93%EV -5.99%E -5.08%K -33.28%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.07%EV -4.45%E -0.946%K -1.20%G +0.000%6.0%2026-03-20 19:57
Fanatics1.15I 86.96%NM 80.17%EV -8.38%E -7.29%K -55.87%G +0.000%4.65I 21.51%NM 19.83%EV -5.46%E -1.18%K -1.50%G +0.000%8.5%2026-03-20 20:00
Unibet (FR)1.20I 83.33%NM 79.31%EV -4.40%E -3.66%K -21.98%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.69%EV -6.48%E -1.41%K -1.80%G +0.000%5.1%2026-03-20 19:50
Svenska Spel1.20I 83.33%NM 79.31%EV -4.40%E -3.66%K -21.98%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.69%EV -6.48%E -1.41%K -1.80%G +0.000%5.1%2026-03-20 20:00
betPARX1.20I 83.33%NM 79.31%EV -4.40%E -3.66%K -21.98%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.69%EV -6.48%E -1.41%K -1.80%G +0.000%5.1%2026-03-20 20:00
BetRivers1.19I 84.03%NM 79.45%EV -5.19%E -4.36%K -27.33%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.55%EV -6.48%E -1.41%K -1.80%G +0.000%5.8%2026-03-20 20:00
NordicBet1.18I 84.75%NM 79.58%EV -5.99%E -5.08%K -33.28%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.42%EV -6.48%E -1.41%K -1.80%G +0.000%6.5%2026-03-20 20:00
Betsson1.18I 84.75%NM 79.58%EV -5.99%E -5.08%K -33.28%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.42%EV -6.48%E -1.41%K -1.80%G +0.000%6.5%2026-03-20 20:00
Pinnacle1.23I 81.30%NM 78.79%EV -2.01%E -1.63%K -8.72%G +0.000%4.57I 21.88%NM 21.21%EV -7.09%E -1.55%K -1.99%G +0.000%3.2%2026-03-20 20:00
Bovada1.22I 81.97%NM 78.67%EV -2.80%E -2.30%K -12.74%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.33%EV -8.51%E -1.89%K -2.43%G +0.000%4.2%2026-03-20 19:58
Bet Right1.21I 82.64%NM 78.81%EV -3.60%E -2.97%K -17.14%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.19%EV -8.51%E -1.89%K -2.43%G +0.000%4.9%2026-03-20 19:53
BetUS1.20I 83.33%NM 78.95%EV -4.40%E -3.66%K -21.98%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.05%EV -8.51%E -1.89%K -2.43%G +0.000%5.6%2026-03-20 19:59
William Hill1.20I 83.33%NM 78.95%EV -4.40%E -3.66%K -21.98%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.05%EV -8.51%E -1.89%K -2.43%G +0.000%5.6%2026-03-20 19:53
PointsBet (AU)1.18I 84.75%NM 79.23%EV -5.99%E -5.08%K -33.28%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.77%EV -8.51%E -1.89%K -2.43%G +0.000%7.0%2026-03-20 20:00
PMU (FR)1.18I 84.75%NM 79.23%EV -5.99%E -5.08%K -33.28%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.77%EV -8.51%E -1.89%K -2.43%G +0.000%7.0%2026-03-20 19:57
Virgin Bet1.18I 84.75%NM 79.23%EV -5.99%E -5.08%K -33.28%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.77%EV -8.51%E -1.89%K -2.43%G +0.000%7.0%2026-03-20 20:00
Grosvenor1.18I 84.75%NM 79.23%EV -5.99%E -5.08%K -33.28%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.77%EV -8.51%E -1.89%K -2.43%G +0.000%7.0%2026-03-20 20:00
theScore Bet1.18I 84.75%NM 79.23%EV -5.99%E -5.08%K -33.28%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.77%EV -8.51%E -1.89%K -2.43%G +0.000%7.0%2026-03-20 20:00
888sport1.17I 85.47%NM 79.37%EV -6.79%E -5.80%K -39.92%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.63%EV -8.51%E -1.89%K -2.43%G +0.000%7.7%2026-03-20 20:00
888sport (SE)1.17I 85.47%NM 79.37%EV -6.79%E -5.80%K -39.92%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.63%EV -8.51%E -1.89%K -2.43%G +0.000%7.7%2026-03-20 20:00
Mr Green (SE)1.17I 85.47%NM 79.37%EV -6.79%E -5.80%K -39.92%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.63%EV -8.51%E -1.89%K -2.43%G +0.000%7.7%2026-03-20 20:00
Marathon Bet1.21I 82.64%NM 78.43%EV -3.60%E -2.97%K -17.14%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.57%EV -10.55%E -2.40%K -3.10%G +0.000%5.4%2026-03-20 19:51
Betr (AU)1.20I 83.33%NM 78.57%EV -4.40%E -3.66%K -21.98%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.43%EV -10.55%E -2.40%K -3.10%G +0.000%6.1%2026-03-20 19:53
TABtouch1.20I 83.33%NM 78.57%EV -4.40%E -3.66%K -21.98%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.43%EV -10.55%E -2.40%K -3.10%G +0.000%6.1%2026-03-20 20:00
Bally Bet1.22I 81.97%NM 78.10%EV -2.80%E -2.30%K -12.74%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.90%EV -11.56%E -2.66%K -3.45%G +0.000%5.0%2026-03-20 19:57
LiveScore Bet1.19I 84.03%NM 78.52%EV -5.19%E -4.36%K -27.33%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.48%EV -11.56%E -2.66%K -3.45%G +0.000%7.0%2026-03-20 20:00
1xBet1.23I 81.30%NM 77.92%EV -2.01%E -1.63%K -8.72%G +0.000%4.34I 23.04%NM 22.08%EV -11.77%E -2.71%K -3.52%G +0.000%4.3%2026-03-20 19:53
LeoVegas (SE)1.18I 84.75%NM 78.47%EV -5.99%E -5.08%K -33.28%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.53%EV -12.58%E -2.93%K -3.81%G +0.000%8.0%2026-03-20 20:00
LeoVegas1.18I 84.75%NM 78.47%EV -5.99%E -5.08%K -33.28%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.53%EV -12.58%E -2.93%K -3.81%G +0.000%8.0%2026-03-20 20:00
BetOnline.ag1.23I 81.30%NM 77.64%EV -2.01%E -1.63%K -8.72%G +0.000%4.27I 23.42%NM 22.36%EV -13.19%E -3.09%K -4.03%G +0.000%4.7%2026-03-20 19:58
LowVig.ag1.23I 81.30%NM 77.64%EV -2.01%E -1.63%K -8.72%G +0.000%4.27I 23.42%NM 22.36%EV -13.19%E -3.09%K -4.03%G +0.000%4.7%2026-03-20 19:58
PlayUp1.22I 81.97%NM 77.49%EV -2.80%E -2.30%K -12.74%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.51%EV -14.61%E -3.48%K -4.57%G +0.000%5.8%2026-03-20 19:57
TAB1.20I 83.33%NM 77.78%EV -4.40%E -3.66%K -21.98%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.22%EV -14.61%E -3.48%K -4.57%G +0.000%7.1%2026-03-20 20:00
Winamax (FR)1.14I 87.72%NM 78.65%EV -9.18%E -8.05%K -65.55%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.35%EV -14.61%E -3.48%K -4.57%G +0.000%11.5%2026-03-20 20:00
Marge = Marge · I = Probabilité implicite · NM = Probabilité sans marge · EV = Espérance mathématique · E = Avantage · K = Critère de Kelly · G = Croissance du capital de jeu

Mise à jour indique le dernier changement de prix de chaque opérateur. Une heure ancienne signifie donc seulement que la cote n’a pas bougé, et non qu’elle est périmée. Les opérateurs absents du flux depuis environ 15 minutes sont normalement écartés ; les derniers prix enregistrés ne sont conservés que si le flux de tout le marché devient silencieux.

Plateformes d’échange (6)

OpérateurLocalVisiteurMarge ▲Mise à jour
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.20I 83.33%NM 82.86%5.80I 17.24%NM 17.14%0.6%2026-03-20 20:00
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.25I 80.00%NM 78.99%4.70I 21.28%NM 21.01%1.3%2026-03-20 20:00
Matchbook1.21I 82.64%NM 81.12%5.20I 19.23%NM 18.88%1.9%2026-03-20 20:00
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.21I 82.64%NM 80.82%5.10I 19.61%NM 19.18%2.3%2026-03-20 20:00
Novig1.21I 82.64%NM 80.52%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.48%2.6%2026-03-20 20:00
Smarkets1.16I 86.21%NM 83.33%5.80I 17.24%NM 16.67%3.4%2026-03-20 20:00