Language:English
Mattia Bellucci v Murphy Cassone
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Mattia Bellucci (Local)
Prediction 73.65%1.36fair odd
EV -2.04%
Edge -1.54%
Kelly -6.19%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.33
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
70.64%73.68%73.63%77.41%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.211.271.281.3382.64%78.58%78.13%75.19%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Murphy Cassone (Visit)
Prediction 26.35%3.80fair odd
EV +11.98%
Edge +2.82%
Kelly +3.68%
Growth +0.441%
assuming max odds 4.25
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
22.59%26.32%26.37%29.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.203.583.504.2531.25%27.95%28.57%23.53%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Mattia Bellucci (Local): 73.65%; Murphy Cassone (Visit): 26.35%. For Murphy Cassone (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.80. 6 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.25, corresponding to a positive expected value of +11.98%.
Sportsbook Odds (27 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bovada🎯 | 1.24I 80.65%NM 77.41%EV -8.67%E -6.99%K -36.13%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.59%EV +11.98%E +2.82%K +3.68%G +0.441% | 4.2% | 2026-03-17 21:20 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 76.42%EV -7.93%E -6.35%K -31.74%G +0.000% | 4.05I 24.69%NM 23.58%EV +6.71%E +1.66%K +2.20%G +0.147% | 4.7% | 2026-03-17 21:20 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -7.93%E -6.35%K -31.74%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV +5.39%E +1.35%K +1.80%G +0.097% | 5.0% | 2026-03-17 21:00 |
| ReBet🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 75.20%EV -6.46%E -5.09%K -23.93%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.80%EV +1.44%E +0.373%K +0.504%G +0.007% | 4.7% | 2026-03-17 21:15 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 74.80%EV -4.99%E -3.87%K -17.20%G +0.000% | 3.83I 26.11%NM 25.20%EV +0.910%E +0.238%K +0.321%G +0.003% | 3.6% | 2026-03-17 21:15 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.25%EV -7.93%E -6.35%K -31.74%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.75%EV +0.119%E +0.031%K +0.043%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-03-17 21:20 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.24I 80.65%NM 75.15%EV -8.67%E -6.99%K -36.13%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.85%EV -1.20%E -0.319%K -0.436%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-03-17 21:15 |
| Fliff🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 75.20%EV -10.14%E -8.31%K -46.11%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.80%EV -2.52%E -0.680%K -0.932%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-03-17 21:20 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 73.63%EV -4.25%E -3.27%K -14.17%G +0.000% | 3.63I 27.55%NM 26.37%EV -4.36%E -1.20%K -1.66%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-03-17 21:15 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 73.63%EV -4.25%E -3.27%K -14.17%G +0.000% | 3.63I 27.55%NM 26.37%EV -4.36%E -1.20%K -1.66%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-03-17 21:15 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.26I 79.37%NM 74.07%EV -7.20%E -5.71%K -27.68%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.93%EV -5.15%E -1.43%K -1.98%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-03-17 21:20 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 1.21I 82.64%NM 74.58%EV -10.88%E -8.99%K -51.81%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 25.42%EV -6.47%E -1.82%K -2.54%G +0.000% | 10.8% | 2026-03-17 21:00 |
| GTbets🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 73.03%EV -4.25%E -3.27%K -14.17%G +0.000% | 3.52I 28.41%NM 26.97%EV -7.26%E -2.06%K -2.88%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-17 21:00 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -4.25%E -3.27%K -14.17%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -7.78%E -2.22%K -3.11%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-03-17 21:20 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.07%EV -4.99%E -3.87%K -17.20%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.93%EV -7.78%E -2.22%K -3.11%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-03-17 21:20 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.28I 78.13%NM 73.22%EV -5.72%E -4.47%K -20.44%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.78%EV -7.78%E -2.22%K -3.11%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-03-17 21:20 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.28I 78.13%NM 73.22%EV -5.72%E -4.47%K -20.44%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.78%EV -7.78%E -2.22%K -3.11%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-03-17 21:20 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 73.68%EV -7.93%E -6.35%K -31.74%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.32%EV -7.78%E -2.22%K -3.11%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-03-17 21:20 |
| Everygame🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 73.68%EV -7.93%E -6.35%K -31.74%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.32%EV -7.78%E -2.22%K -3.11%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-03-17 21:01 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.63%EV -4.25%E -3.27%K -14.17%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.37%EV -9.10%E -2.64%K -3.72%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-03-17 21:15 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 72.49%EV -4.99%E -3.87%K -17.20%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.51%EV -10.42%E -3.06%K -4.34%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-03-17 21:20 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.28I 78.13%NM 72.65%EV -5.72%E -4.47%K -20.44%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.35%EV -10.42%E -3.06%K -4.34%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-03-17 21:20 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 71.90%EV -4.99%E -3.87%K -17.20%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.10%EV -13.05%E -3.96%K -5.68%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-03-17 21:20 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 71.90%EV -6.46%E -5.09%K -23.93%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.10%EV -14.37%E -4.42%K -6.39%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-03-17 21:20 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 71.90%EV -6.46%E -5.09%K -23.93%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.10%EV -14.37%E -4.42%K -6.39%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-03-17 21:20 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 70.64%EV -2.04%E -1.54%K -6.19%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.36%EV -15.69%E -4.90%K -7.13%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-03-17 21:19 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 71.11%EV -4.25%E -3.27%K -14.17%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.89%EV -15.69%E -4.90%K -7.13%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-03-17 21:19 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (4)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.31I 76.34%NM 75.33% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 24.67% | 1.3% | 2026-03-17 21:20 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.26I 79.37%NM 75.58% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.42% | 5.0% | 2026-03-17 21:20 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.26I 79.37%NM 75.58% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.42% | 5.0% | 2026-03-17 21:20 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.20I 83.33%NM 79.31% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.69% | 5.1% | 2026-03-17 21:20 |