La scuola delle quoteLingua:Italiano
Mattia Bellucci v Murphy Cassone
Quote di chiusura — probabilità e valore atteso calcolati dalle ultime quote registrate prima dell’inizio secondo il modello selezionato. L’incontro è iniziato, quindi non sono dati in tempo reale. Valuti l’affidabilità delle previsioni probabilistiche di ciascun modello rispetto a tutti i risultati definitivi →
Testa a testa
Mattia Bellucci (Casa)
Previsione 73.65%1.36quota equa
EV -2.04%
Vantaggio -1.54%
Kelly -6.19%
Crescita +0.000%
ipotizzando la quota massima 1.33
Distribuzione delle stime di probabilità dei bookmaker
70.64%73.68%73.63%77.41%MINMEDIAMEDIANAMAX
Distribuzione delle quote
1.211.271.281.3382.64%78.58%78.13%75.19%MINMEDIAMEDIANAMAX
Murphy Cassone (Trasferta)
Previsione 26.35%3.80quota equa
EV +11.98%
Vantaggio +2.82%
Kelly +3.68%
Crescita +0.441%
ipotizzando la quota massima 4.25
Distribuzione delle stime di probabilità dei bookmaker
22.59%26.32%26.37%29.36%MINMEDIAMEDIANAMAX
Distribuzione delle quote
3.203.583.504.2531.25%27.95%28.57%23.53%MINMEDIAMEDIANAMAX
Quote dei bookmaker (27 bookmaker)
Non siamo affiliati ad alcun bookmaker e non ricaviamo nulla dalle operazioni svolte presso di essi.
| Bookmaker | Casa | Trasferta ▼ | Margine | Aggiornamento |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bovada | 1.24I 80.65%NM 77.41%EV -8.67%E -6.99%K -36.13%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.59%EV +11.98%E +2.82%K +3.68%G +0.441% | 4.2% | 2026-03-17 21:20 |
| Coolbet | 1.25I 80.00%NM 76.42%EV -7.93%E -6.35%K -31.74%G +0.000% | 4.05I 24.69%NM 23.58%EV +6.71%E +1.66%K +2.20%G +0.147% | 4.7% | 2026-03-17 21:20 |
| Betway | 1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -7.93%E -6.35%K -31.74%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV +5.39%E +1.35%K +1.80%G +0.097% | 5.0% | 2026-03-17 21:00 |
| ReBet | 1.27I 78.74%NM 75.20%EV -6.46%E -5.09%K -23.93%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.80%EV +1.44%E +0.373%K +0.504%G +0.007% | 4.7% | 2026-03-17 21:15 |
| Pinnacle | 1.29I 77.52%NM 74.80%EV -4.99%E -3.87%K -17.20%G +0.000% | 3.83I 26.11%NM 25.20%EV +0.910%E +0.238%K +0.321%G +0.003% | 3.6% | 2026-03-17 21:15 |
| PointsBet (AU) | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.25%EV -7.93%E -6.35%K -31.74%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.75%EV +0.119%E +0.031%K +0.043%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-03-17 21:20 |
| Unibet (FR) | 1.24I 80.65%NM 75.15%EV -8.67%E -6.99%K -36.13%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.85%EV -1.20%E -0.319%K -0.436%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-03-17 21:15 |
| Fliff | 1.22I 81.97%NM 75.20%EV -10.14%E -8.31%K -46.11%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.80%EV -2.52%E -0.680%K -0.932%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-03-17 21:20 |
| LowVig.ag | 1.30I 76.92%NM 73.63%EV -4.25%E -3.27%K -14.17%G +0.000% | 3.63I 27.55%NM 26.37%EV -4.36%E -1.20%K -1.66%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-03-17 21:15 |
| BetOnline.ag | 1.30I 76.92%NM 73.63%EV -4.25%E -3.27%K -14.17%G +0.000% | 3.63I 27.55%NM 26.37%EV -4.36%E -1.20%K -1.66%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-03-17 21:15 |
| FanDuel | 1.26I 79.37%NM 74.07%EV -7.20%E -5.71%K -27.68%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.93%EV -5.15%E -1.43%K -1.98%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-03-17 21:20 |
| NetBet (FR) | 1.21I 82.64%NM 74.58%EV -10.88%E -8.99%K -51.81%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 25.42%EV -6.47%E -1.82%K -2.54%G +0.000% | 10.8% | 2026-03-17 21:00 |
| GTbets | 1.30I 76.92%NM 73.03%EV -4.25%E -3.27%K -14.17%G +0.000% | 3.52I 28.41%NM 26.97%EV -7.26%E -2.06%K -2.88%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-17 21:00 |
| Unibet (UK) | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -4.25%E -3.27%K -14.17%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -7.78%E -2.22%K -3.11%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-03-17 21:20 |
| BoyleSports | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.07%EV -4.99%E -3.87%K -17.20%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.93%EV -7.78%E -2.22%K -3.11%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-03-17 21:20 |
| Ladbrokes (UK) | 1.28I 78.13%NM 73.22%EV -5.72%E -4.47%K -20.44%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.78%EV -7.78%E -2.22%K -3.11%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-03-17 21:20 |
| Coral | 1.28I 78.13%NM 73.22%EV -5.72%E -4.47%K -20.44%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.78%EV -7.78%E -2.22%K -3.11%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-03-17 21:20 |
| Paddy Power | 1.25I 80.00%NM 73.68%EV -7.93%E -6.35%K -31.74%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.32%EV -7.78%E -2.22%K -3.11%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-03-17 21:20 |
| Everygame | 1.25I 80.00%NM 73.68%EV -7.93%E -6.35%K -31.74%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.32%EV -7.78%E -2.22%K -3.11%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-03-17 21:01 |
| PlayUp | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.63%EV -4.25%E -3.27%K -14.17%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.37%EV -9.10%E -2.64%K -3.72%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-03-17 21:15 |
| theScore Bet | 1.29I 77.52%NM 72.49%EV -4.99%E -3.87%K -17.20%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.51%EV -10.42%E -3.06%K -4.34%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-03-17 21:20 |
| Winamax (DE) | 1.28I 78.13%NM 72.65%EV -5.72%E -4.47%K -20.44%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.35%EV -10.42%E -3.06%K -4.34%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-03-17 21:20 |
| Winamax (FR) | 1.29I 77.52%NM 71.90%EV -4.99%E -3.87%K -17.20%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.10%EV -13.05%E -3.96%K -5.68%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-03-17 21:20 |
| NordicBet | 1.27I 78.74%NM 71.90%EV -6.46%E -5.09%K -23.93%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.10%EV -14.37%E -4.42%K -6.39%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-03-17 21:20 |
| Betsson | 1.27I 78.74%NM 71.90%EV -6.46%E -5.09%K -23.93%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.10%EV -14.37%E -4.42%K -6.39%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-03-17 21:20 |
| Bet Victor | 1.33I 75.19%NM 70.64%EV -2.04%E -1.54%K -6.19%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.36%EV -15.69%E -4.90%K -7.13%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-03-17 21:19 |
| TAB | 1.30I 76.92%NM 71.11%EV -4.25%E -3.27%K -14.17%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.89%EV -15.69%E -4.90%K -7.13%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-03-17 21:19 |
Margine = Margine (overround) · I = Probabilità implicita · NM = Probabilità senza margine · EV = Valore atteso · E = Vantaggio · K = Criterio di Kelly · G = Crescita del capitale
Aggiornamento indica quando ciascun bookmaker ha modificato la quota per l’ultima volta: un orario meno recente significa che la quota non si è mossa, non che sia obsoleta. I bookmaker assenti da circa 15 minuti vengono normalmente esclusi; solo se tace il flusso dell’intero mercato si mostrano le ultime quote registrate.
Borse di scommesse (4)
| Bookmaker | Casa | Trasferta | Margine ▲ | Aggiornamento |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (UK) | 1.31I 76.34%NM 75.33% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 24.67% | 1.3% | 2026-03-17 21:20 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU) | 1.26I 79.37%NM 75.58% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.42% | 5.0% | 2026-03-17 21:20 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU) | 1.26I 79.37%NM 75.58% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.42% | 5.0% | 2026-03-17 21:20 |
| Smarkets | 1.20I 83.33%NM 79.31% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.69% | 5.1% | 2026-03-17 21:20 |