Language:English
Marin Cilic v Alexander Zverev
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Marin Cilic (Local)
Prediction 8.85%11.29fair odd
EV +15.11%
Edge +1.16%
Kelly +1.26%
Growth +0.190%
assuming max odds 13.00
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
7.34%9.65%8.68%18.22%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
5.259.4010.0013.0019.05%10.64%10.00%7.69%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Alexander Zverev (Visit)
Prediction 91.15%1.10fair odd
EV +6.64%
Edge +5.67%
Kelly +39.06%
Growth +2.59%
assuming max odds 1.17
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
81.78%90.35%91.32%92.66%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.011.061.051.1799.01%94.06%95.24%85.47%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Marin Cilic (Local): 8.85%; Alexander Zverev (Visit): 91.15%. For Marin Cilic (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 11.29. 8 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 13.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +15.11%.
Sportsbook Odds (48 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bally Bet🎯 | 5.25I 19.05%NM 18.22%EV -53.51%E -10.19%K -12.59%G +0.000% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.78%EV +6.64%E +5.67%K +39.06%G +2.59% | 4.5% | 2026-03-23 22:00 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 6.02I 16.61%NM 16.16%EV -46.69%E -7.76%K -9.30%G +0.000% | 1.16I 86.21%NM 83.84%EV +5.73%E +4.94%K +35.80%G +2.05% | 2.8% | 2026-03-23 21:50 |
| GTbets🎯 | 5.62I 17.79%NM 17.11%EV -50.24%E -8.94%K -10.87%G +0.000% | 1.16I 86.21%NM 82.89%EV +5.73%E +4.94%K +35.80%G +2.05% | 4.0% | 2026-03-23 21:24 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.55%EV -49.08%E -8.54%K -10.33%G +0.000% | 1.14I 87.72%NM 83.45%EV +3.91%E +3.43%K +27.90%G +1.09% | 5.1% | 2026-03-23 21:50 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.17%EV -51.30%E -9.33%K -11.40%G +0.000% | 1.14I 87.72%NM 82.83%EV +3.91%E +3.43%K +27.90%G +1.09% | 5.9% | 2026-03-23 22:04 |
| BetUS🎯 | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.17%EV -51.30%E -9.33%K -11.40%G +0.000% | 1.14I 87.72%NM 82.83%EV +3.91%E +3.43%K +27.90%G +1.09% | 5.9% | 2026-03-23 21:09 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 6.05I 16.53%NM 15.74%EV -46.43%E -7.67%K -9.19%G +0.000% | 1.13I 88.50%NM 84.26%EV +2.99%E +2.65%K +23.03%G +0.689% | 5.0% | 2026-03-23 21:00 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 6.61I 15.13%NM 14.49%EV -41.47%E -6.27%K -7.39%G +0.000% | 1.12I 89.29%NM 85.51%EV +2.08%E +1.86%K +17.35%G +0.361% | 4.4% | 2026-03-23 22:04 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 6.61I 15.13%NM 14.49%EV -41.47%E -6.27%K -7.39%G +0.000% | 1.12I 89.29%NM 85.51%EV +2.08%E +1.86%K +17.35%G +0.361% | 4.4% | 2026-03-23 22:04 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 5.70I 17.54%NM 16.42%EV -49.53%E -8.69%K -10.54%G +0.000% | 1.12I 89.29%NM 83.58%EV +2.08%E +1.86%K +17.35%G +0.361% | 6.8% | 2026-03-23 21:59 |
| TAB🎯 | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.36%EV -42.44%E -6.53%K -7.72%G +0.000% | 1.09I 91.74%NM 85.64%EV -0.652%E -0.598%K -7.24%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-03-23 22:04 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 12.00I 8.33%NM 8.12%EV +6.26%E +0.522%K +0.569%G +0.036% | 1.06I 94.34%NM 91.88%EV -3.39%E -3.19%K -56.44%G +0.000% | 2.7% | 2026-03-23 22:15 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.79%EV -2.60%E -0.236%K -0.260%G +0.000% | 1.06I 94.34%NM 91.21%EV -3.39%E -3.19%K -56.44%G +0.000% | 3.4% | 2026-03-23 22:10 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 12.00I 8.33%NM 8.05%EV +6.26%E +0.522%K +0.569%G +0.036% | 1.05I 95.24%NM 91.95%EV -4.30%E -4.09%K -85.95%G +0.000% | 3.6% | 2026-03-23 22:14 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.71%EV -2.60%E -0.236%K -0.260%G +0.000% | 1.05I 95.24%NM 91.29%EV -4.30%E -4.09%K -85.95%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-03-23 22:14 |
| Bovada🎯 | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.71%EV -2.60%E -0.236%K -0.260%G +0.000% | 1.05I 95.24%NM 91.29%EV -4.30%E -4.09%K -85.95%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-03-23 22:15 |
| Unibet🎯 | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.50%EV -11.45%E -1.15%K -1.27%G +0.000% | 1.05I 95.24%NM 90.50%EV -4.30%E -4.09%K -85.95%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-03-23 22:14 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.50%EV -11.45%E -1.15%K -1.27%G +0.000% | 1.05I 95.24%NM 90.50%EV -4.30%E -4.09%K -85.95%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-03-23 22:14 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.50%EV -11.45%E -1.15%K -1.27%G +0.000% | 1.05I 95.24%NM 90.50%EV -4.30%E -4.09%K -85.95%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-03-23 22:14 |
| Casumo🎯 | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.50%EV -11.45%E -1.15%K -1.27%G +0.000% | 1.05I 95.24%NM 90.50%EV -4.30%E -4.09%K -85.95%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-03-23 22:14 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.50%EV -11.45%E -1.15%K -1.27%G +0.000% | 1.05I 95.24%NM 90.50%EV -4.30%E -4.09%K -85.95%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-03-23 22:14 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.50%EV -11.45%E -1.15%K -1.27%G +0.000% | 1.05I 95.24%NM 90.50%EV -4.30%E -4.09%K -85.95%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-03-23 22:14 |
| betPARX🎯 | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.50%EV -11.45%E -1.15%K -1.27%G +0.000% | 1.05I 95.24%NM 90.50%EV -4.30%E -4.09%K -85.95%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-03-23 22:14 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.50%EV -11.45%E -1.15%K -1.27%G +0.000% | 1.05I 95.24%NM 90.50%EV -4.30%E -4.09%K -85.95%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-03-23 22:15 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.95%EV -15.88%E -1.67%K -1.87%G +0.000% | 1.05I 95.24%NM 90.05%EV -4.30%E -4.09%K -85.95%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-03-23 22:14 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.45%EV -20.31%E -2.26%K -2.54%G +0.000% | 1.05I 95.24%NM 89.55%EV -4.30%E -4.09%K -85.95%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-03-23 22:14 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.45%EV -20.31%E -2.26%K -2.54%G +0.000% | 1.05I 95.24%NM 89.55%EV -4.30%E -4.09%K -85.95%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-03-23 22:15 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.45%EV -20.31%E -2.26%K -2.54%G +0.000% | 1.05I 95.24%NM 89.55%EV -4.30%E -4.09%K -85.95%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-03-23 22:14 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.45%EV -20.31%E -2.26%K -2.54%G +0.000% | 1.05I 95.24%NM 89.55%EV -4.30%E -4.09%K -85.95%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-03-23 22:14 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.98%EV +6.26%E +0.522%K +0.569%G +0.036% | 1.04I 96.15%NM 92.02%EV -5.21%E -5.01%K -130.23%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-03-23 22:15 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 11.50I 8.70%NM 8.29%EV +1.83%E +0.159%K +0.174%G +0.003% | 1.04I 96.15%NM 91.71%EV -5.21%E -5.01%K -130.23%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-03-23 22:14 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 11.50I 8.70%NM 8.29%EV +1.83%E +0.159%K +0.174%G +0.003% | 1.04I 96.15%NM 91.71%EV -5.21%E -5.01%K -130.23%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-03-23 22:14 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.64%EV -2.60%E -0.236%K -0.260%G +0.000% | 1.04I 96.15%NM 91.36%EV -5.21%E -5.01%K -130.23%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-03-23 22:14 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.64%EV -2.60%E -0.236%K -0.260%G +0.000% | 1.04I 96.15%NM 91.36%EV -5.21%E -5.01%K -130.23%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-03-23 22:14 |
| Betsson🎯 | 10.50I 9.52%NM 9.01%EV -7.02%E -0.669%K -0.739%G +0.000% | 1.04I 96.15%NM 90.99%EV -5.21%E -5.01%K -130.23%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-03-23 22:14 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.36%EV -20.31%E -2.26%K -2.54%G +0.000% | 1.04I 96.15%NM 89.64%EV -5.21%E -5.01%K -130.23%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-03-23 22:15 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.36%EV -20.31%E -2.26%K -2.54%G +0.000% | 1.04I 96.15%NM 89.64%EV -5.21%E -5.01%K -130.23%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-03-23 22:14 |
| Betway🎯 | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.34%EV +15.11%E +1.16%K +1.26%G +0.190% | 1.03I 97.09%NM 92.66%EV -6.12%E -5.94%K -204.02%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-03-23 22:14 |
| Coral🎯 | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.34%EV +15.11%E +1.16%K +1.26%G +0.190% | 1.03I 97.09%NM 92.66%EV -6.12%E -5.94%K -204.02%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-03-23 22:14 |
| 888sport🎯 | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.56%EV -2.60%E -0.236%K -0.260%G +0.000% | 1.03I 97.09%NM 91.44%EV -6.12%E -5.94%K -204.02%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-03-23 22:15 |
| Caesars🎯 | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.56%EV -2.60%E -0.236%K -0.260%G +0.000% | 1.03I 97.09%NM 91.44%EV -6.12%E -5.94%K -204.02%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-03-23 22:14 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.56%EV -2.60%E -0.236%K -0.260%G +0.000% | 1.03I 97.09%NM 91.44%EV -6.12%E -5.94%K -204.02%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-03-23 22:14 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.34%EV -11.45%E -1.15%K -1.27%G +0.000% | 1.03I 97.09%NM 90.66%EV -6.12%E -5.94%K -204.02%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-03-23 22:14 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.27%EV -20.31%E -2.26%K -2.54%G +0.000% | 1.03I 97.09%NM 89.73%EV -6.12%E -5.94%K -204.02%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-03-23 22:14 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.27%EV -20.31%E -2.26%K -2.54%G +0.000% | 1.03I 97.09%NM 89.73%EV -6.12%E -5.94%K -204.02%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-03-23 22:14 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 8.50I 11.76%NM 10.81%EV -24.73%E -2.91%K -3.30%G +0.000% | 1.03I 97.09%NM 89.19%EV -6.12%E -5.94%K -204.02%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-03-23 22:14 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.83%EV +6.26%E +0.522%K +0.569%G +0.036% | 1.02I 98.04%NM 92.17%EV -7.03%E -6.89%K -351.60%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-03-23 22:14 |
| Fliff🎯 | 10.35I 9.66%NM 8.89%EV -8.35%E -0.807%K -0.893%G +0.000% | 1.01I 99.01%NM 91.11%EV -7.94%E -7.86%K -794.35%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-03-23 22:13 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (7)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 22.00I 4.55%NM 4.51% | 1.04I 96.15%NM 95.49% | 0.7% | 2026-03-23 22:15 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 21.00I 4.76%NM 4.72% | 1.04I 96.15%NM 95.28% | 0.9% | 2026-03-23 22:15 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 21.00I 4.76%NM 4.72% | 1.04I 96.15%NM 95.28% | 0.9% | 2026-03-23 22:15 |
| Matchbook◎ | 20.00I 5.00%NM 4.94% | 1.04I 96.15%NM 95.06% | 1.2% | 2026-03-23 22:15 |
| ProphetX◎ | 17.00I 5.88%NM 5.76% | 1.04I 96.15%NM 94.24% | 2.0% | 2026-03-23 22:15 |
| Smarkets◎ | 10.50I 9.52%NM 9.01% | 1.04I 96.15%NM 90.99% | 5.7% | 2026-03-23 22:15 |
| Novig◎ | 15.87I 6.30%NM 5.93% | 1.00I 100.00%NM 94.07% | 6.3% | 2026-03-23 22:12 |