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Thiago Agustin Tirante v Tommy Paul
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Thiago Agustin Tirante (Local)
Prediction 34.53%2.90fair odd
EV +0.132%
Edge +0.046%
Kelly +0.070%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.90
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
32.24%34.40%34.52%35.96%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.602.782.772.9038.46%36.02%36.10%34.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Tommy Paul (Visit)
Prediction 65.47%1.53fair odd
EV -2.45%
Edge -1.64%
Kelly -4.99%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.49
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
64.04%65.60%65.48%67.76%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.381.441.441.4972.46%69.56%69.44%67.11%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Thiago Agustin Tirante (Local): 34.53%; Tommy Paul (Visit): 65.47%. For Thiago Agustin Tirante (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.896. 5 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.900, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.132%.
Sportsbook Odds (57 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 888sport🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV +0.132%E +0.046%K +0.070%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -8.34%E -5.96%K -20.85%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-04-22 17:20 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV +0.132%E +0.046%K +0.070%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -8.34%E -5.96%K -20.85%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-04-22 19:50 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV +0.132%E +0.046%K +0.070%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -8.34%E -5.96%K -20.85%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-04-22 19:50 |
| William Hill🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV +0.132%E +0.046%K +0.070%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -8.34%E -5.96%K -20.85%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-04-23 16:30 |
| GTbets🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.24%EV +0.132%E +0.046%K +0.070%G +0.000% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 67.76%EV -9.65%E -6.99%K -25.39%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-04-23 16:10 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 2.85I 35.09%NM 34.03%EV -1.59%E -0.559%K -0.862%G +0.000% | 1.47I 68.03%NM 65.97%EV -3.76%E -2.56%K -7.99%G +0.000% | 3.1% | 2026-04-24 03:44 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.41%EV -1.59%E -0.559%K -0.862%G +0.000% | 1.43I 69.93%NM 66.59%EV -6.38%E -4.46%K -14.83%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-04-23 21:35 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.41%EV -1.59%E -0.559%K -0.862%G +0.000% | 1.43I 69.93%NM 66.59%EV -6.38%E -4.46%K -14.83%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-04-23 21:34 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.41%EV -1.59%E -0.559%K -0.862%G +0.000% | 1.43I 69.93%NM 66.59%EV -6.38%E -4.46%K -14.83%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-04-23 21:35 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.41%EV -1.59%E -0.559%K -0.862%G +0.000% | 1.43I 69.93%NM 66.59%EV -6.38%E -4.46%K -14.83%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-04-23 21:34 |
| Casumo🎯 | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.41%EV -1.59%E -0.559%K -0.862%G +0.000% | 1.43I 69.93%NM 66.59%EV -6.38%E -4.46%K -14.83%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-04-23 21:34 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.41%EV -1.59%E -0.559%K -0.862%G +0.000% | 1.43I 69.93%NM 66.59%EV -6.38%E -4.46%K -14.83%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-04-23 21:34 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.41%EV -1.59%E -0.559%K -0.862%G +0.000% | 1.43I 69.93%NM 66.59%EV -6.38%E -4.46%K -14.83%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-04-23 21:34 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.41%EV -1.59%E -0.559%K -0.862%G +0.000% | 1.43I 69.93%NM 66.59%EV -6.38%E -4.46%K -14.83%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-04-23 21:34 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.41%EV -1.59%E -0.559%K -0.862%G +0.000% | 1.43I 69.93%NM 66.59%EV -6.38%E -4.46%K -14.83%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-04-23 21:34 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.41%EV -1.59%E -0.559%K -0.862%G +0.000% | 1.43I 69.93%NM 66.59%EV -6.38%E -4.46%K -14.83%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-04-23 21:34 |
| Unibet🎯 | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.41%EV -1.59%E -0.559%K -0.862%G +0.000% | 1.43I 69.93%NM 66.59%EV -6.38%E -4.46%K -14.83%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-04-23 21:34 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.41%EV -1.59%E -0.559%K -0.862%G +0.000% | 1.43I 69.93%NM 66.59%EV -6.38%E -4.46%K -14.83%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-04-23 21:34 |
| betPARX🎯 | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.41%EV -1.59%E -0.559%K -0.862%G +0.000% | 1.43I 69.93%NM 66.59%EV -6.38%E -4.46%K -14.83%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-04-23 21:34 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.41%EV -1.59%E -0.559%K -0.862%G +0.000% | 1.43I 69.93%NM 66.59%EV -6.38%E -4.46%K -14.83%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-04-23 21:35 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 2.84I 35.21%NM 34.11%EV -1.94%E -0.683%K -1.05%G +0.000% | 1.47I 68.03%NM 65.89%EV -3.76%E -2.56%K -7.99%G +0.000% | 3.2% | 2026-04-24 01:10 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 2.84I 35.21%NM 33.64%EV -1.94%E -0.683%K -1.05%G +0.000% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 66.36%EV -5.72%E -3.97%K -13.00%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-04-24 00:30 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 2.82I 35.46%NM 33.80%EV -2.63%E -0.933%K -1.45%G +0.000% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 66.20%EV -5.72%E -3.97%K -13.00%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-04-24 00:29 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 34.58%EV -3.32%E -1.19%K -1.84%G +0.000% | 1.48I 67.57%NM 65.42%EV -3.10%E -2.10%K -6.46%G +0.000% | 3.3% | 2026-04-24 02:09 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.96%EV -3.32%E -1.19%K -1.84%G +0.000% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 66.04%EV -5.72%E -3.97%K -13.00%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-04-24 00:10 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.96%EV -3.32%E -1.19%K -1.84%G +0.000% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 66.04%EV -5.72%E -3.97%K -13.00%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-04-24 00:29 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.65%EV -3.32%E -1.19%K -1.84%G +0.000% | 1.42I 70.42%NM 66.35%EV -7.03%E -4.95%K -16.74%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-04-23 21:35 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 2.79I 35.84%NM 34.81%EV -3.67%E -1.31%K -2.05%G +0.000% | 1.49I 67.11%NM 65.19%EV -2.45%E -1.64%K -4.99%G +0.000% | 3.0% | 2026-04-24 03:40 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 2.77I 36.10%NM 34.98%EV -4.36%E -1.57%K -2.46%G +0.000% | 1.49I 67.11%NM 65.02%EV -2.45%E -1.64%K -4.99%G +0.000% | 3.2% | 2026-04-24 00:35 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 2.77I 36.10%NM 34.98%EV -4.36%E -1.57%K -2.46%G +0.000% | 1.49I 67.11%NM 65.02%EV -2.45%E -1.64%K -4.99%G +0.000% | 3.2% | 2026-04-24 00:30 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.68%EV -5.05%E -1.84%K -2.88%G +0.000% | 1.46I 68.49%NM 65.32%EV -4.41%E -3.02%K -9.59%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-04-24 00:25 |
| Betsson🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.68%EV -5.05%E -1.84%K -2.88%G +0.000% | 1.46I 68.49%NM 65.32%EV -4.41%E -3.02%K -9.59%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-04-24 02:10 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.68%EV -5.05%E -1.84%K -2.88%G +0.000% | 1.46I 68.49%NM 65.32%EV -4.41%E -3.02%K -9.59%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-04-24 02:10 |
| Betway🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV -5.05%E -1.84%K -2.88%G +0.000% | 1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%EV -5.07%E -3.49%K -11.26%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-24 00:20 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV -5.05%E -1.84%K -2.88%G +0.000% | 1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%EV -5.07%E -3.49%K -11.26%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-24 01:10 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -5.05%E -1.84%K -2.88%G +0.000% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -5.72%E -3.97%K -13.00%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-04-24 02:10 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -5.05%E -1.84%K -2.88%G +0.000% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -5.72%E -3.97%K -13.00%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-04-24 00:24 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.21%EV -5.05%E -1.84%K -2.88%G +0.000% | 1.43I 69.93%NM 65.79%EV -6.38%E -4.46%K -14.83%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-04-24 03:40 |
| Caesars🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.05%EV -5.05%E -1.84%K -2.88%G +0.000% | 1.42I 70.42%NM 65.95%EV -7.03%E -4.95%K -16.74%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-04-23 11:03 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.89%EV -5.05%E -1.84%K -2.88%G +0.000% | 1.41I 70.92%NM 66.11%EV -7.68%E -5.45%K -18.74%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-04-23 21:35 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.89%EV -5.05%E -1.84%K -2.88%G +0.000% | 1.41I 70.92%NM 66.11%EV -7.68%E -5.45%K -18.74%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-04-23 21:34 |
| Everygame🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%EV -5.05%E -1.84%K -2.88%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 66.27%EV -8.34%E -5.96%K -20.85%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-04-24 03:09 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 35.10%EV -6.77%E -2.51%K -3.98%G +0.000% | 1.46I 68.49%NM 64.90%EV -4.41%E -3.02%K -9.59%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-04-24 02:10 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.94%EV -6.77%E -2.51%K -3.98%G +0.000% | 1.45I 68.97%NM 65.06%EV -5.07%E -3.49%K -11.26%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-04-24 02:10 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.94%EV -6.77%E -2.51%K -3.98%G +0.000% | 1.45I 68.97%NM 65.06%EV -5.07%E -3.49%K -11.26%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-04-24 01:45 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.94%EV -6.77%E -2.51%K -3.98%G +0.000% | 1.45I 68.97%NM 65.06%EV -5.07%E -3.49%K -11.26%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-04-23 20:30 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.94%EV -6.77%E -2.51%K -3.98%G +0.000% | 1.45I 68.97%NM 65.06%EV -5.07%E -3.49%K -11.26%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-04-24 01:09 |
| Fliff🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.62%EV -6.77%E -2.51%K -3.98%G +0.000% | 1.43I 69.93%NM 65.38%EV -6.38%E -4.46%K -14.83%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-04-24 01:10 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.15%EV -6.77%E -2.51%K -3.98%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 65.85%EV -8.34%E -5.96%K -20.85%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-04-24 01:15 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.15%EV -6.77%E -2.51%K -3.98%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 65.85%EV -8.34%E -5.96%K -20.85%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-04-24 03:03 |
| BetUS🎯 | 2.68I 37.31%NM 35.73%EV -7.46%E -2.79%K -4.44%G +0.000% | 1.49I 67.11%NM 64.27%EV -2.45%E -1.64%K -4.99%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-04-24 03:35 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.21%EV -8.50%E -3.21%K -5.15%G +0.000% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 64.79%EV -5.72%E -3.97%K -13.00%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-04-24 01:10 |
| Coral🎯 | 2.62I 38.17%NM 35.47%EV -9.54%E -3.64%K -5.89%G +0.000% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 64.53%EV -5.72%E -3.97%K -13.00%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-04-24 01:09 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 2.62I 38.17%NM 35.47%EV -9.54%E -3.64%K -5.89%G +0.000% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 64.53%EV -5.72%E -3.97%K -13.00%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-04-24 01:10 |
| TAB🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.96%EV -10.23%E -3.93%K -6.39%G +0.000% | 1.46I 68.49%NM 64.04%EV -4.41%E -3.02%K -9.59%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-04-24 00:19 |
| Neds🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.64%EV -10.23%E -3.93%K -6.39%G +0.000% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 64.36%EV -5.72%E -3.97%K -13.00%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-04-24 01:09 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.64%EV -10.23%E -3.93%K -6.39%G +0.000% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 64.36%EV -5.72%E -3.97%K -13.00%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-04-24 01:09 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (6)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Novig◎ | 2.79I 35.84%NM 35.42% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 64.58% | 1.2% | 2026-04-24 03:35 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 2.88I 34.72%NM 34.25% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 65.75% | 1.4% | 2026-04-24 03:30 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 2.88I 34.72%NM 34.25% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 65.75% | 1.4% | 2026-04-24 03:25 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 2.88I 34.72%NM 34.25% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 65.75% | 1.4% | 2026-04-24 03:25 |
| Matchbook◎ | 2.88I 34.72%NM 34.25% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 65.75% | 1.4% | 2026-04-24 03:10 |
| Smarkets◎ | 2.84I 35.21%NM 34.26% | 1.48I 67.57%NM 65.74% | 2.8% | 2026-04-24 03:10 |