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Learner Tien v Adolfo Daniel Vallejo
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Learner Tien (Local)
Prediction 47.18%2.12fair odd
EV +3.80%
Edge +1.73%
Kelly +3.17%
Growth +0.121%
assuming max odds 2.20
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
43.01%47.19%47.37%58.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.621.982.002.2061.73%50.46%50.00%45.45%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Adolfo Daniel Vallejo (Visit)
Prediction 52.82%1.89fair odd
EV +21.48%
Edge +9.34%
Kelly +16.52%
Growth +3.55%
assuming max odds 2.30
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
41.33%52.81%52.63%56.99%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.661.801.802.3060.24%55.45%55.56%43.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Learner Tien (Local): 47.18%; Adolfo Daniel Vallejo (Visit): 52.82%. For Adolfo Daniel Vallejo (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.89. 3 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.30, corresponding to a positive expected value of +21.48%.
Sportsbook Odds (33 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| William Hill🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -23.56%E -14.54%K -38.00%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV +21.48%E +9.34%K +16.52%G +3.55% | 5.2% | 2026-04-23 16:10 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 51.57%EV -12.71%E -6.87%K -14.95%G +0.000% | 1.97I 50.76%NM 48.43%EV +4.05%E +2.05%K +4.17%G +0.169% | 4.8% | 2026-04-23 16:24 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 51.57%EV -12.71%E -6.87%K -14.95%G +0.000% | 1.97I 50.76%NM 48.43%EV +4.05%E +2.05%K +4.17%G +0.169% | 4.8% | 2026-04-23 16:25 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.92%EV -5.63%E -2.82%K -5.63%G +0.000% | 1.84I 54.35%NM 52.08%EV -2.82%E -1.53%K -3.36%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-04-23 19:00 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 2.08I 48.08%NM 46.67%EV -1.86%E -0.893%K -1.72%G +0.000% | 1.82I 54.95%NM 53.33%EV -3.87%E -2.13%K -4.73%G +0.000% | 3.0% | 2026-04-24 02:54 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 2.02I 49.50%NM 47.12%EV -4.69%E -2.32%K -4.60%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.88%EV -4.93%E -2.74%K -6.16%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-04-23 21:05 |
| 888sport🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -5.63%E -2.82%K -5.63%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -4.93%E -2.74%K -6.16%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-04-23 18:50 |
| Betway🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -5.63%E -2.82%K -5.63%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -4.93%E -2.74%K -6.16%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-04-23 18:59 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -5.63%E -2.82%K -5.63%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -4.93%E -2.74%K -6.16%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-04-23 18:59 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -5.63%E -2.82%K -5.63%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -4.93%E -2.74%K -6.16%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-04-23 18:54 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -5.63%E -2.82%K -5.63%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -4.93%E -2.74%K -6.16%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-04-23 18:55 |
| TAB🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -5.63%E -2.82%K -5.63%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -4.93%E -2.74%K -6.16%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-04-24 00:49 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.98I 50.51%NM 47.62%EV -6.58%E -3.32%K -6.71%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.38%EV -4.93%E -2.74%K -6.16%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-04-23 18:59 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.98I 50.51%NM 47.62%EV -6.58%E -3.32%K -6.71%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.38%EV -4.93%E -2.74%K -6.16%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-04-24 02:49 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.00%EV -7.99%E -4.10%K -8.41%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.00%EV -4.93%E -2.74%K -6.16%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-04-23 18:55 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.00%EV -7.99%E -4.10%K -8.41%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.00%EV -4.93%E -2.74%K -6.16%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-04-24 02:50 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.90I 52.63%NM 48.65%EV -10.35%E -5.45%K -11.50%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 51.35%EV -4.93%E -2.74%K -6.16%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-04-23 19:04 |
| GTbets🎯 | 2.04I 49.02%NM 46.74%EV -3.74%E -1.84%K -3.60%G +0.000% | 1.79I 55.87%NM 53.26%EV -5.46%E -3.05%K -6.91%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-04-23 18:50 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.99I 50.25%NM 47.35%EV -6.10%E -3.07%K -6.17%G +0.000% | 1.79I 55.87%NM 52.65%EV -5.46%E -3.05%K -6.91%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-04-24 02:10 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.09%EV -5.63%E -2.82%K -5.63%G +0.000% | 1.78I 56.18%NM 52.91%EV -5.99%E -3.36%K -7.68%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-04-23 20:34 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.97I 50.76%NM 47.47%EV -7.05%E -3.58%K -7.27%G +0.000% | 1.78I 56.18%NM 52.53%EV -5.99%E -3.36%K -7.68%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-04-23 18:59 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 47.72%EV -7.99%E -4.10%K -8.41%G +0.000% | 1.78I 56.18%NM 52.28%EV -5.99%E -3.36%K -7.68%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-04-24 02:50 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 47.72%EV -7.99%E -4.10%K -8.41%G +0.000% | 1.78I 56.18%NM 52.28%EV -5.99%E -3.36%K -7.68%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-04-24 02:50 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.95%EV -5.63%E -2.82%K -5.63%G +0.000% | 1.77I 56.50%NM 53.05%EV -6.52%E -3.68%K -8.46%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-04-23 18:59 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.95%EV -5.63%E -2.82%K -5.63%G +0.000% | 1.77I 56.50%NM 53.05%EV -6.52%E -3.68%K -8.46%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-04-23 19:39 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.60%EV -0.914%E -0.435%K -0.831%G +0.000% | 1.76I 56.82%NM 54.40%EV -7.04%E -4.00%K -9.27%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-04-24 01:00 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 47.30%EV -7.99%E -4.10%K -8.41%G +0.000% | 1.75I 57.14%NM 52.70%EV -7.57%E -4.33%K -10.10%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-04-24 02:49 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.38%EV -5.63%E -2.82%K -5.63%G +0.000% | 1.73I 57.80%NM 53.62%EV -8.63%E -4.99%K -11.82%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-04-24 01:00 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.38%EV -5.63%E -2.82%K -5.63%G +0.000% | 1.73I 57.80%NM 53.62%EV -8.63%E -4.99%K -11.82%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-04-24 00:59 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.38%EV -5.63%E -2.82%K -5.63%G +0.000% | 1.73I 57.80%NM 53.62%EV -8.63%E -4.99%K -11.82%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-04-23 22:14 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 2.07I 48.31%NM 45.24%EV -2.33%E -1.13%K -2.18%G +0.000% | 1.71I 58.48%NM 54.76%EV -9.68%E -5.66%K -13.64%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-04-24 01:00 |
| Everygame🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 45.95%EV -5.63%E -2.82%K -5.63%G +0.000% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 54.05%EV -10.21%E -6.01%K -14.59%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-04-24 01:05 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.01%EV +3.80%E +1.73%K +3.17%G +0.121% | 1.66I 60.24%NM 56.99%EV -12.33%E -7.42%K -18.67%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-04-23 18:59 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (6)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Novig◎ | 2.23I 44.84%NM 44.53% | 1.79I 55.87%NM 55.47% | 0.7% | 2026-04-24 03:45 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 2.02I 49.50%NM 46.98% | 1.79I 55.87%NM 53.02% | 5.4% | 2026-04-24 03:35 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 2.02I 49.50%NM 46.98% | 1.79I 55.87%NM 53.02% | 5.4% | 2026-04-24 03:35 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37% | 5.6% | 2026-04-23 17:35 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 2.02I 49.50%NM 46.84% | 1.78I 56.18%NM 53.16% | 5.7% | 2026-04-24 03:15 |
| Smarkets◎ | 2.00I 50.00%NM 45.21% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 54.79% | 10.6% | 2026-04-24 01:35 |