Language:English
Ignacio Buse v Adrian Mannarino
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Ignacio Buse (Local)
Prediction 77.26%1.29fair odd
EV -1.10%
Edge -0.861%
Kelly -3.94%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.28
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
73.22%77.46%77.28%83.31%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.141.221.221.2887.72%82.21%81.97%78.13%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Adrian Mannarino (Visit)
Prediction 22.74%4.40fair odd
EV +33.92%
Edge +5.76%
Kelly +6.94%
Growth +2.35%
assuming max odds 5.89
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
16.69%22.54%22.72%26.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.504.124.105.8928.57%24.28%24.39%16.98%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Ignacio Buse (Local): 77.26%; Adrian Mannarino (Visit): 22.74%. For Adrian Mannarino (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.40. 5 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 5.89, corresponding to a positive expected value of +33.92%.
Sportsbook Odds (42 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 83.31%EV -8.83%E -7.48%K -49.05%G +0.000% | 5.89I 16.98%NM 16.69%EV +33.92%E +5.76%K +6.94%G +2.35% | 1.7% | 2026-04-22 10:50 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 81.43%EV -11.92%E -10.46%K -85.14%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.57%EV +13.68%E +2.74%K +3.42%G +0.468% | 7.7% | 2026-04-22 10:55 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 79.58%EV -8.83%E -7.48%K -49.05%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.42%EV +4.59%E +0.997%K +1.27%G +0.058% | 6.5% | 2026-04-22 10:54 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 78.95%EV -7.28%E -6.07%K -36.42%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.05%EV +2.31%E +0.514%K +0.661%G +0.015% | 5.6% | 2026-04-22 10:55 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 78.29%EV -5.74%E -4.70%K -26.08%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.71%EV +0.040%E +0.009%K +0.012%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-04-22 10:54 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 78.10%EV -5.74%E -4.70%K -26.08%G +0.000% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 21.90%EV -1.10%E -0.252%K -0.327%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-04-22 10:55 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.94%EV -5.74%E -4.70%K -26.08%G +0.000% | 4.31I 23.20%NM 22.06%EV -2.01%E -0.465%K -0.606%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-04-22 10:55 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.90%EV -5.74%E -4.70%K -26.08%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 22.10%EV -2.23%E -0.519%K -0.677%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-04-22 10:54 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 78.18%EV -7.28%E -6.07%K -36.42%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.82%EV -2.23%E -0.519%K -0.677%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-04-22 10:50 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.70%EV -5.74%E -4.70%K -26.08%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.30%EV -3.37%E -0.793%K -1.04%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-04-22 10:55 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 77.98%EV -7.28%E -6.07%K -36.42%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.02%EV -3.37%E -0.793%K -1.04%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-04-22 10:55 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.49%EV -5.74%E -4.70%K -26.08%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.51%EV -4.51%E -1.07%K -1.41%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-04-22 10:55 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.49%EV -5.74%E -4.70%K -26.08%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.51%EV -4.51%E -1.07%K -1.41%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-04-22 10:55 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.21I 82.64%NM 77.63%EV -6.51%E -5.38%K -31.01%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.37%EV -4.51%E -1.07%K -1.41%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-04-22 10:55 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.78%EV -4.19%E -3.38%K -17.47%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.22%EV -6.78%E -1.65%K -2.19%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-04-22 10:55 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.78%EV -4.19%E -3.38%K -17.47%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.22%EV -6.78%E -1.65%K -2.19%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-04-22 10:54 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.78%EV -4.19%E -3.38%K -17.47%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.22%EV -6.78%E -1.65%K -2.19%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-04-22 10:55 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.78%EV -4.19%E -3.38%K -17.47%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.22%EV -6.78%E -1.65%K -2.19%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-04-22 10:55 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.78%EV -4.19%E -3.38%K -17.47%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.22%EV -6.78%E -1.65%K -2.19%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-04-22 10:55 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 77.36%EV -7.28%E -6.07%K -36.42%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.64%EV -6.78%E -1.65%K -2.19%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-04-22 10:55 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.19I 84.03%NM 77.50%EV -8.06%E -6.77%K -42.40%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.50%EV -6.78%E -1.65%K -2.19%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-04-22 10:49 |
| Fliff🎯 | 1.19I 84.03%NM 77.50%EV -8.06%E -6.77%K -42.40%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.50%EV -6.78%E -1.65%K -2.19%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-04-22 10:55 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.34%EV -4.19%E -3.38%K -17.47%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.66%EV -9.05%E -2.26%K -3.02%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-04-22 10:54 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.23I 81.30%NM 76.48%EV -4.97%E -4.04%K -21.59%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.52%EV -9.05%E -2.26%K -3.02%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-04-22 10:55 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.23I 81.30%NM 76.48%EV -4.97%E -4.04%K -21.59%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.52%EV -9.05%E -2.26%K -3.02%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-04-22 10:54 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 76.63%EV -5.74%E -4.70%K -26.08%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.37%EV -9.05%E -2.26%K -3.02%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-04-22 10:55 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 76.63%EV -5.74%E -4.70%K -26.08%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.37%EV -9.05%E -2.26%K -3.02%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-04-22 10:49 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 76.63%EV -5.74%E -4.70%K -26.08%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.37%EV -9.05%E -2.26%K -3.02%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-04-22 10:49 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 76.92%EV -7.28%E -6.07%K -36.42%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.08%EV -9.05%E -2.26%K -3.02%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-04-22 10:55 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 77.22%EV -8.83%E -7.48%K -49.05%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.78%EV -9.05%E -2.26%K -3.02%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-04-22 10:54 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.23I 81.30%NM 76.25%EV -4.97%E -4.04%K -21.59%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.75%EV -10.19%E -2.58%K -3.45%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-04-22 10:55 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.23I 81.30%NM 76.25%EV -4.97%E -4.04%K -21.59%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.75%EV -10.19%E -2.58%K -3.45%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-04-22 10:55 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.16I 86.21%NM 77.08%EV -10.37%E -8.94%K -64.84%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 22.92%EV -11.33%E -2.90%K -3.91%G +0.000% | 11.8% | 2026-04-22 10:54 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 76.24%EV -7.28%E -6.07%K -36.42%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 23.76%EV -12.46%E -3.24%K -4.37%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-04-22 10:55 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.25%EV -3.42%E -2.74%K -13.68%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.75%EV -13.60%E -3.58%K -4.86%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-04-22 10:54 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.24I 80.65%NM 75.40%EV -4.19%E -3.38%K -17.47%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.60%EV -13.60%E -3.58%K -4.86%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-04-22 10:54 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 75.70%EV -5.74%E -4.70%K -26.08%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.30%EV -13.60%E -3.58%K -4.86%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-04-22 10:55 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 76.31%EV -8.83%E -7.48%K -49.05%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.69%EV -13.60%E -3.58%K -4.86%G +0.000% | 11.1% | 2026-04-22 10:55 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.00%EV -3.42%E -2.74%K -13.68%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.00%EV -14.74%E -3.93%K -5.36%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-04-22 10:53 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 75.45%EV -5.74%E -4.70%K -26.08%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.55%EV -14.74%E -3.93%K -5.36%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-04-22 10:54 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.26I 79.37%NM 74.07%EV -2.65%E -2.10%K -10.18%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.93%EV -18.15%E -5.04%K -6.98%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-04-22 10:54 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.28I 78.13%NM 73.22%EV -1.10%E -0.861%K -3.94%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.78%EV -20.42%E -5.83%K -8.17%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-04-22 10:54 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (6)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.30I 76.92%NM 76.36% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 23.64% | 0.7% | 2026-04-22 10:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.28I 78.13%NM 76.64% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 23.36% | 1.9% | 2026-04-22 10:55 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.30I 76.92%NM 75.24% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 24.76% | 2.2% | 2026-04-22 10:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.26I 79.37%NM 76.92% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 23.08% | 3.2% | 2026-04-22 10:55 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.23I 81.30%NM 78.53% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.47% | 3.5% | 2026-04-22 10:55 |
| Novig◎ | 1.19I 84.03%NM 79.69% | 4.67I 21.41%NM 20.31% | 5.4% | 2026-04-22 10:55 |