Language:English
Hubert Hurkacz v Lorenzo Musetti
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Hubert Hurkacz (Local)
Prediction 38.85%2.57fair odd
EV +0.225%
Edge +0.087%
Kelly +0.142%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.58
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
36.30%39.01%38.64%41.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.302.402.382.5843.48%41.72%42.02%38.76%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Lorenzo Musetti (Visit)
Prediction 61.15%1.64fair odd
EV -0.932%
Edge -0.575%
Kelly -1.50%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.62
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
58.67%60.99%61.36%63.70%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.471.561.571.6268.03%63.92%63.69%61.73%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Hubert Hurkacz (Local): 38.85%; Lorenzo Musetti (Visit): 61.15%. For Hubert Hurkacz (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.57. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.58, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.225%.
Sportsbook Odds (58 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GTbets🎯 | 2.58I 38.76%NM 36.30%EV +0.225%E +0.087%K +0.142%G +0.000% | 1.47I 68.03%NM 63.70%EV -10.10%E -6.87%K -21.50%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-04-23 16:04 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 2.53I 39.53%NM 37.68%EV -1.72%E -0.679%K -1.12%G +0.000% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.32%EV -6.44%E -4.21%K -12.14%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-04-23 20:15 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 38.42%EV -2.88%E -1.15%K -1.92%G +0.000% | 1.56I 64.10%NM 61.58%EV -4.60%E -2.95%K -8.22%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-04-23 22:05 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 38.42%EV -2.88%E -1.15%K -1.92%G +0.000% | 1.56I 64.10%NM 61.58%EV -4.60%E -2.95%K -8.22%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-04-23 22:05 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 38.27%EV -2.88%E -1.15%K -1.92%G +0.000% | 1.55I 64.52%NM 61.73%EV -5.21%E -3.36%K -9.48%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-04-24 01:00 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -2.88%E -1.15%K -1.92%G +0.000% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -6.44%E -4.21%K -12.14%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-04-23 19:44 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -2.88%E -1.15%K -1.92%G +0.000% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -6.44%E -4.21%K -12.14%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-04-23 21:05 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.03%EV -2.88%E -1.15%K -1.92%G +0.000% | 1.47I 68.03%NM 62.97%EV -10.10%E -6.87%K -21.50%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-04-23 22:02 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 2.49I 40.16%NM 38.21%EV -3.27%E -1.31%K -2.20%G +0.000% | 1.54I 64.94%NM 61.79%EV -5.82%E -3.78%K -10.79%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-04-24 01:00 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 2.48I 40.32%NM 38.46%EV -3.66%E -1.48%K -2.47%G +0.000% | 1.55I 64.52%NM 61.54%EV -5.21%E -3.36%K -9.48%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-04-24 02:10 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 2.47I 40.49%NM 39.31%EV -4.05%E -1.64%K -2.75%G +0.000% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 60.69%EV -2.15%E -1.35%K -3.59%G +0.000% | 3.0% | 2026-04-24 01:00 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 2.47I 40.49%NM 38.56%EV -4.05%E -1.64%K -2.75%G +0.000% | 1.55I 64.52%NM 61.44%EV -5.21%E -3.36%K -9.48%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-04-23 22:04 |
| Betsson🎯 | 2.47I 40.49%NM 38.56%EV -4.05%E -1.64%K -2.75%G +0.000% | 1.55I 64.52%NM 61.44%EV -5.21%E -3.36%K -9.48%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-04-23 22:05 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 39.66%EV -4.83%E -1.97%K -3.33%G +0.000% | 1.61I 62.11%NM 60.34%EV -1.54%E -0.959%K -2.53%G +0.000% | 2.9% | 2026-04-24 01:04 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.60%EV -4.83%E -1.97%K -3.33%G +0.000% | 1.54I 64.94%NM 61.40%EV -5.82%E -3.78%K -10.79%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-04-23 21:05 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.60%EV -4.83%E -1.97%K -3.33%G +0.000% | 1.54I 64.94%NM 61.40%EV -5.82%E -3.78%K -10.79%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-04-23 22:04 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.44%EV -4.83%E -1.97%K -3.33%G +0.000% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 61.56%EV -6.44%E -4.21%K -12.14%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-04-23 22:04 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 2.44I 40.98%NM 39.75%EV -5.21%E -2.14%K -3.62%G +0.000% | 1.61I 62.11%NM 60.25%EV -1.54%E -0.959%K -2.53%G +0.000% | 3.1% | 2026-04-24 03:40 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 2.44I 40.98%NM 38.69%EV -5.21%E -2.14%K -3.62%G +0.000% | 1.54I 64.94%NM 61.31%EV -5.82%E -3.78%K -10.79%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-04-23 22:02 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 40.30%EV -6.77%E -2.82%K -4.83%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 59.70%EV -0.932%E -0.575%K -1.50%G +0.000% | 3.4% | 2026-04-24 00:59 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 40.30%EV -6.77%E -2.82%K -4.83%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 59.70%EV -0.932%E -0.575%K -1.50%G +0.000% | 3.4% | 2026-04-24 01:00 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.85%EV -6.77%E -2.82%K -4.83%G +0.000% | 1.59I 62.89%NM 60.15%EV -2.77%E -1.74%K -4.69%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-04-23 20:35 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.55%EV -6.77%E -2.82%K -4.83%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.45%EV -3.99%E -2.54%K -7.00%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-04-24 01:00 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.39%EV -6.77%E -2.82%K -4.83%G +0.000% | 1.56I 64.10%NM 60.61%EV -4.60%E -2.95%K -8.22%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-04-23 23:09 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.24%EV -6.77%E -2.82%K -4.83%G +0.000% | 1.55I 64.52%NM 60.76%EV -5.21%E -3.36%K -9.48%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-04-23 20:30 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.93%EV -6.77%E -2.82%K -4.83%G +0.000% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 61.07%EV -6.44%E -4.21%K -12.14%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-04-24 00:59 |
| Caesars🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.93%EV -6.77%E -2.82%K -4.83%G +0.000% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 61.07%EV -6.44%E -4.21%K -12.14%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-04-23 21:03 |
| Unibet🎯 | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.90%EV -7.54%E -3.17%K -5.47%G +0.000% | 1.58I 63.29%NM 60.10%EV -3.38%E -2.14%K -5.82%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-23 20:34 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -7.54%E -3.17%K -5.47%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -3.99%E -2.54%K -7.00%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-04-23 20:35 |
| Casumo🎯 | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -7.54%E -3.17%K -5.47%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -3.99%E -2.54%K -7.00%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-04-23 20:34 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -7.54%E -3.17%K -5.47%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -3.99%E -2.54%K -7.00%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-04-23 20:35 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -7.54%E -3.17%K -5.47%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -3.99%E -2.54%K -7.00%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-04-23 20:35 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -7.54%E -3.17%K -5.47%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -3.99%E -2.54%K -7.00%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-04-23 20:34 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -7.54%E -3.17%K -5.47%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -3.99%E -2.54%K -7.00%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-04-23 20:35 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -7.54%E -3.17%K -5.47%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -3.99%E -2.54%K -7.00%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-04-23 20:34 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -7.54%E -3.17%K -5.47%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -3.99%E -2.54%K -7.00%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-04-23 20:35 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -7.54%E -3.17%K -5.47%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -3.99%E -2.54%K -7.00%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-04-23 20:35 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -7.54%E -3.17%K -5.47%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -3.99%E -2.54%K -7.00%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-04-23 20:34 |
| betPARX🎯 | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -7.54%E -3.17%K -5.47%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -3.99%E -2.54%K -7.00%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-04-23 20:35 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -7.54%E -3.17%K -5.47%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -3.99%E -2.54%K -7.00%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-04-23 20:34 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.13%EV -7.54%E -3.17%K -5.47%G +0.000% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 60.87%EV -6.44%E -4.21%K -12.14%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-04-23 20:15 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.20%EV -8.71%E -3.71%K -6.45%G +0.000% | 1.58I 63.29%NM 59.80%EV -3.38%E -2.14%K -5.82%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-04-23 20:14 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.05%EV -8.71%E -3.71%K -6.45%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 59.95%EV -3.99%E -2.54%K -7.00%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-04-23 20:24 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 39.90%EV -8.71%E -3.71%K -6.45%G +0.000% | 1.56I 64.10%NM 60.10%EV -4.60%E -2.95%K -8.22%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-04-23 20:34 |
| BetUS🎯 | 2.33I 42.92%NM 40.86%EV -9.49%E -4.07%K -7.13%G +0.000% | 1.61I 62.11%NM 59.14%EV -1.54%E -0.959%K -2.53%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-04-24 03:35 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 2.33I 42.92%NM 40.10%EV -9.49%E -4.07%K -7.13%G +0.000% | 1.56I 64.10%NM 59.90%EV -4.60%E -2.95%K -8.22%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-04-23 20:34 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 2.33I 42.92%NM 40.10%EV -9.49%E -4.07%K -7.13%G +0.000% | 1.56I 64.10%NM 59.90%EV -4.60%E -2.95%K -8.22%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-04-23 20:34 |
| William Hill🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -10.65%E -4.63%K -8.19%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -0.932%E -0.575%K -1.50%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-04-23 20:20 |
| 888sport🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.18%EV -10.65%E -4.63%K -8.19%G +0.000% | 1.61I 62.11%NM 58.82%EV -1.54%E -0.959%K -2.53%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-04-23 20:19 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.18%EV -10.65%E -4.63%K -8.19%G +0.000% | 1.61I 62.11%NM 58.82%EV -1.54%E -0.959%K -2.53%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-04-23 20:20 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.18%EV -10.65%E -4.63%K -8.19%G +0.000% | 1.61I 62.11%NM 58.82%EV -1.54%E -0.959%K -2.53%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-04-23 20:20 |
| Betway🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.03%EV -10.65%E -4.63%K -8.19%G +0.000% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 58.97%EV -2.15%E -1.35%K -3.59%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-04-24 01:00 |
| TAB🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.72%EV -10.65%E -4.63%K -8.19%G +0.000% | 1.58I 63.29%NM 59.28%EV -3.38%E -2.14%K -5.82%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-04-24 01:00 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.57%EV -10.65%E -4.63%K -8.19%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 59.43%EV -3.99%E -2.54%K -7.00%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-04-23 20:25 |
| Neds🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.57%EV -10.65%E -4.63%K -8.19%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 59.43%EV -3.99%E -2.54%K -7.00%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-04-23 20:24 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.26%EV -10.65%E -4.63%K -8.19%G +0.000% | 1.55I 64.52%NM 59.74%EV -5.21%E -3.36%K -9.48%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-04-23 20:24 |
| Coral🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.26%EV -10.65%E -4.63%K -8.19%G +0.000% | 1.55I 64.52%NM 59.74%EV -5.21%E -3.36%K -9.48%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-04-23 20:20 |
| Everygame🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.26%EV -10.65%E -4.63%K -8.19%G +0.000% | 1.55I 64.52%NM 59.74%EV -5.21%E -3.36%K -9.48%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-04-24 03:09 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (6)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 2.56I 39.06%NM 38.90% | 1.63I 61.35%NM 61.10% | 0.4% | 2026-04-24 02:45 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 2.56I 39.06%NM 38.90% | 1.63I 61.35%NM 61.10% | 0.4% | 2026-04-24 02:45 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 2.56I 39.06%NM 38.90% | 1.63I 61.35%NM 61.10% | 0.4% | 2026-04-24 02:45 |
| Matchbook◎ | 2.56I 39.06%NM 38.90% | 1.63I 61.35%NM 61.10% | 0.4% | 2026-04-24 02:45 |
| Novig◎ | 2.57I 38.91%NM 38.37% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 61.63% | 1.4% | 2026-04-24 03:15 |
| Smarkets◎ | 2.50I 40.00%NM 39.02% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 60.98% | 2.5% | 2026-04-24 03:40 |