Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Ugo Humbert v Jiri Lehecka

2026-10-03 02:00 UTC — ATP Japan Open

Resultado del partido

55 corredores (19 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Ugo Humbert (Local)

Predicción 36.80%2.72momio equitativo
EV +0.819%
Ventaja +0.299%
Kelly +0.471%
Crecimiento +0.004%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.74

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
35.25%36.77%36.86%38.29%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.352.592.572.7442.55%38.68%38.91%36.50%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Jiri Lehecka (Visitante)

Predicción 63.20%1.58momio equitativo
EV -2.03%
Ventaja -1.31%
Kelly -3.70%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.55

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
61.71%63.23%63.14%64.75%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.411.481.481.5570.92%67.34%67.57%64.52%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Para Resultado del partido, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estima estas probabilidades: Ugo Humbert (Local): 36.80%; Jiri Lehecka (Visitante): 63.20%. Para Ugo Humbert (Local), esa estimación equivale a momios decimales justos de 2.72. 2 corredores ofrecen momios superiores a ese nivel; los mejores momios disponibles son 2.74, lo que produce un valor esperado positivo de +0.819%.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (55 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocal ▼VisitanteMargenActualizado
BetOnline.ag🎯2.74I 36.50%NM 35.38%EV +0.819%E +0.299%K +0.471%G +0.004%1.50I 66.67%NM 64.62%EV -5.19%E -3.46%K -10.39%G +0.000%3.2%2026-10-01 13:50
LowVig.ag🎯2.74I 36.50%NM 35.38%EV +0.819%E +0.299%K +0.471%G +0.004%1.50I 66.67%NM 64.62%EV -5.19%E -3.46%K -10.39%G +0.000%3.2%2026-10-01 13:50
BetAnything🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 35.71%EV -0.653%E -0.242%K -0.384%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 64.29%EV -5.19%E -3.46%K -10.39%G +0.000%3.7%2026-10-01 13:50
Hard Rock Bet🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 35.41%EV -0.653%E -0.242%K -0.384%G +0.000%1.48I 67.57%NM 64.59%EV -6.46%E -4.36%K -13.45%G +0.000%4.6%2026-10-01 12:10
BetRivers🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 35.25%EV -0.653%E -0.242%K -0.384%G +0.000%1.47I 68.03%NM 64.75%EV -7.09%E -4.82%K -15.08%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-01 12:05
LiveScore Bet🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 35.25%EV -0.653%E -0.242%K -0.384%G +0.000%1.47I 68.03%NM 64.75%EV -7.09%E -4.82%K -15.08%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-01 12:05
Grosvenor🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 35.25%EV -0.653%E -0.242%K -0.384%G +0.000%1.47I 68.03%NM 64.75%EV -7.09%E -4.82%K -15.08%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-01 12:05
Virgin Bet🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 35.25%EV -0.653%E -0.242%K -0.384%G +0.000%1.47I 68.03%NM 64.75%EV -7.09%E -4.82%K -15.08%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-01 12:05
TABtouch🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 35.25%EV -0.653%E -0.242%K -0.384%G +0.000%1.47I 68.03%NM 64.75%EV -7.09%E -4.82%K -15.08%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-01 12:05
Casumo🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 35.25%EV -0.653%E -0.242%K -0.384%G +0.000%1.47I 68.03%NM 64.75%EV -7.09%E -4.82%K -15.08%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-01 12:05
Unibet (SE)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 35.25%EV -0.653%E -0.242%K -0.384%G +0.000%1.47I 68.03%NM 64.75%EV -7.09%E -4.82%K -15.08%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-01 12:05
Unibet (NL)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 35.25%EV -0.653%E -0.242%K -0.384%G +0.000%1.47I 68.03%NM 64.75%EV -7.09%E -4.82%K -15.08%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-01 12:05
Unibet🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 35.25%EV -0.653%E -0.242%K -0.384%G +0.000%1.47I 68.03%NM 64.75%EV -7.09%E -4.82%K -15.08%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-01 12:05
Svenska Spel🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 35.25%EV -0.653%E -0.242%K -0.384%G +0.000%1.47I 68.03%NM 64.75%EV -7.09%E -4.82%K -15.08%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-01 12:05
betPARX🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 35.25%EV -0.653%E -0.242%K -0.384%G +0.000%1.47I 68.03%NM 64.75%EV -7.09%E -4.82%K -15.08%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-01 12:05
ATG (SE)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 35.25%EV -0.653%E -0.242%K -0.384%G +0.000%1.47I 68.03%NM 64.75%EV -7.09%E -4.82%K -15.08%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-01 12:05
GTbets🎯2.67I 37.45%NM 36.43%EV -1.76%E -0.658%K -1.05%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 63.57%EV -3.30%E -2.15%K -6.22%G +0.000%2.8%2026-10-01 12:45
FanDuel🎯2.66I 37.59%NM 35.90%EV -2.12%E -0.799%K -1.28%G +0.000%1.49I 67.11%NM 64.10%EV -5.82%E -3.91%K -11.89%G +0.000%4.7%2026-10-01 13:45
DraftKings🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 36.32%EV -3.23%E -1.23%K -1.98%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 63.68%EV -5.19%E -3.46%K -10.39%G +0.000%4.7%2026-10-01 14:40
Sky Bet🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 35.38%EV -3.23%E -1.23%K -1.98%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 64.62%EV -8.99%E -6.24%K -20.42%G +0.000%7.5%2026-10-01 11:40
Pinnacle🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 37.17%EV -3.60%E -1.37%K -2.22%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 62.83%EV -2.03%E -1.31%K -3.70%G +0.000%2.7%2026-10-01 14:20
SportsBet🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 35.63%EV -3.60%E -1.37%K -2.22%G +0.000%1.45I 68.97%NM 64.37%EV -8.35%E -5.76%K -18.56%G +0.000%7.1%2026-10-01 14:20
Paddy Power🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 35.47%EV -3.60%E -1.37%K -2.22%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 64.53%EV -8.99%E -6.24%K -20.42%G +0.000%7.6%2026-10-01 11:15
Bovada🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.74%EV -4.33%E -1.67%K -2.71%G +0.000%1.51I 66.23%NM 63.26%EV -4.56%E -3.02%K -8.94%G +0.000%4.7%2026-10-01 13:49
Betway🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -4.33%E -1.67%K -2.71%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -5.19%E -3.46%K -10.39%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-01 14:09
Coolbet🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -4.33%E -1.67%K -2.71%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -5.19%E -3.46%K -10.39%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-01 14:10
Bet Right🎯2.58I 38.76%NM 36.92%EV -5.07%E -1.96%K -3.21%G +0.000%1.51I 66.23%NM 63.08%EV -4.56%E -3.02%K -8.94%G +0.000%5.0%2026-10-01 14:50
Marathon Bet🎯2.57I 38.91%NM 36.86%EV -5.44%E -2.12%K -3.46%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 63.14%EV -5.19%E -3.46%K -10.39%G +0.000%5.6%2026-10-01 14:35
Betr (AU)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV -6.17%E -2.42%K -3.98%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 62.96%EV -5.19%E -3.46%K -10.39%G +0.000%5.9%2026-10-01 14:55
Winamax (DE)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV -6.17%E -2.42%K -3.98%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 62.96%EV -5.19%E -3.46%K -10.39%G +0.000%5.9%2026-10-01 14:20
Betsson🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.88%EV -6.17%E -2.42%K -3.98%G +0.000%1.49I 67.11%NM 63.12%EV -5.82%E -3.91%K -11.89%G +0.000%6.3%2026-10-01 14:20
NordicBet🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.88%EV -6.17%E -2.42%K -3.98%G +0.000%1.49I 67.11%NM 63.12%EV -5.82%E -3.91%K -11.89%G +0.000%6.3%2026-10-01 14:15
Betclic (FR)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.88%EV -6.17%E -2.42%K -3.98%G +0.000%1.49I 67.11%NM 63.12%EV -5.82%E -3.91%K -11.89%G +0.000%6.3%2026-10-01 15:04
Fanatics🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.72%EV -6.17%E -2.42%K -3.98%G +0.000%1.48I 67.57%NM 63.28%EV -6.46%E -4.36%K -13.45%G +0.000%6.8%2026-10-01 13:49
Tipico (DE)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.25%EV -6.17%E -2.42%K -3.98%G +0.000%1.45I 68.97%NM 63.75%EV -8.35%E -5.76%K -18.56%G +0.000%8.2%2026-10-01 13:50
PMU (FR)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 35.61%EV -6.17%E -2.42%K -3.98%G +0.000%1.41I 70.92%NM 64.39%EV -10.88%E -7.72%K -26.54%G +0.000%10.1%2026-10-01 12:05
BetMGM🎯2.54I 39.37%NM 37.13%EV -6.54%E -2.57%K -4.25%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 62.87%EV -5.19%E -3.46%K -10.39%G +0.000%6.0%2026-10-01 14:25
Unibet (UK)🎯2.53I 39.53%NM 36.91%EV -6.91%E -2.73%K -4.52%G +0.000%1.48I 67.57%NM 63.09%EV -6.46%E -4.36%K -13.45%G +0.000%7.1%2026-10-01 14:15
888sport🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -8.01%E -3.20%K -5.34%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -3.30%E -2.15%K -6.22%G +0.000%5.4%2026-10-01 14:10
William Hill🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -8.01%E -3.20%K -5.34%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -3.30%E -2.15%K -6.22%G +0.000%5.4%2026-10-01 14:10
BoyleSports🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -8.01%E -3.20%K -5.34%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -3.30%E -2.15%K -6.22%G +0.000%5.4%2026-10-01 14:20
888sport (SE)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -8.01%E -3.20%K -5.34%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -3.30%E -2.15%K -6.22%G +0.000%5.4%2026-10-01 14:10
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -8.01%E -3.20%K -5.34%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -3.30%E -2.15%K -6.22%G +0.000%5.4%2026-10-01 14:10
TAB🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -8.01%E -3.20%K -5.34%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -5.19%E -3.46%K -10.39%G +0.000%6.7%2026-10-01 13:44
theScore Bet🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.19%EV -8.01%E -3.20%K -5.34%G +0.000%1.48I 67.57%NM 62.81%EV -6.46%E -4.36%K -13.45%G +0.000%7.6%2026-10-01 14:19
Coral🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.19%EV -8.01%E -3.20%K -5.34%G +0.000%1.48I 67.57%NM 62.81%EV -6.46%E -4.36%K -13.45%G +0.000%7.6%2026-10-01 14:25
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.19%EV -8.01%E -3.20%K -5.34%G +0.000%1.48I 67.57%NM 62.81%EV -6.46%E -4.36%K -13.45%G +0.000%7.6%2026-10-01 14:25
Bet Victor🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.71%EV -8.01%E -3.20%K -5.34%G +0.000%1.45I 68.97%NM 63.29%EV -8.35%E -5.76%K -18.56%G +0.000%9.0%2026-10-01 14:12
betano_uk🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.71%EV -8.01%E -3.20%K -5.34%G +0.000%1.45I 68.97%NM 63.29%EV -8.35%E -5.76%K -18.56%G +0.000%9.0%2026-10-01 14:10
Neds🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.29%EV -9.85%E -4.02%K -6.79%G +0.000%1.52I 65.79%NM 61.71%EV -3.93%E -2.58%K -7.56%G +0.000%6.6%2026-10-01 14:25
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.29%EV -9.85%E -4.02%K -6.79%G +0.000%1.52I 65.79%NM 61.71%EV -3.93%E -2.58%K -7.56%G +0.000%6.6%2026-10-01 14:24
LeoVegas🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.50%EV -9.85%E -4.02%K -6.79%G +0.000%1.47I 68.03%NM 62.50%EV -7.09%E -4.82%K -15.08%G +0.000%8.8%2026-10-01 14:20
ReBet🎯2.43I 41.15%NM 37.53%EV -10.59%E -4.36%K -7.40%G +0.000%1.46I 68.49%NM 62.47%EV -7.72%E -5.29%K -16.78%G +0.000%9.6%2026-10-01 14:20
Unibet (FR)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 37.50%EV -11.69%E -4.87%K -8.35%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 62.50%EV -8.99%E -6.24%K -20.42%G +0.000%11.1%2026-10-01 14:15
Winamax (FR)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 37.99%EV -13.53%E -5.76%K -10.02%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 62.01%EV -8.99%E -6.24%K -20.42%G +0.000%12.0%2026-10-01 14:15
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (4)

CorredorLocalVisitanteMargen ▲Actualizado
Matchbook◎2.62I 38.17%NM 36.87%1.53I 65.36%NM 63.13%3.5%2026-10-01 14:10
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.42I 41.32%NM 38.73%1.53I 65.36%NM 61.27%6.7%2026-10-01 14:20
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.42I 41.32%NM 38.73%1.53I 65.36%NM 61.27%6.7%2026-10-01 14:20
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.42I 41.32%NM 38.73%1.53I 65.36%NM 61.27%6.7%2026-10-01 14:15