Language:English
Lorenzo Musetti v Arthur Fery
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Lorenzo Musetti (Local)
Prediction 67.75%1.48fair odd
EV -2.44%
Edge -1.69%
Kelly -5.55%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.44
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
65.95%67.76%67.76%69.18%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.331.391.391.4475.19%71.91%71.94%69.44%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Arthur Fery (Visit)
Prediction 32.25%3.10fair odd
EV -1.64%
Edge -0.537%
Kelly -0.799%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.05
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
30.82%32.24%32.24%34.05%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.702.932.953.0537.04%34.12%33.90%32.79%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Lorenzo Musetti (Local): 67.75%; Arthur Fery (Visit): 32.25%. For Arthur Fery (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.10. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.05, with an expected value of -1.64%; they did not produce positive expected value.
Sportsbook Odds (56 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GTbets🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 67.35%EV -2.44%E -1.69%K -5.55%G +0.000% | 2.97I 33.67%NM 32.65%EV -4.22%E -1.42%K -2.14%G +0.000% | 3.1% | 2026-09-29 21:45 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 66.67%EV -2.44%E -1.69%K -5.55%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 33.33%EV -7.12%E -2.47%K -3.79%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-09-30 07:20 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 67.94%EV -3.12%E -2.18%K -7.25%G +0.000% | 3.03I 33.00%NM 32.06%EV -2.28%E -0.753%K -1.12%G +0.000% | 2.9% | 2026-09-30 03:25 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 67.72%EV -3.12%E -2.18%K -7.25%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 32.28%EV -3.25%E -1.08%K -1.63%G +0.000% | 3.3% | 2026-09-30 02:05 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 67.51%EV -3.79%E -2.67%K -9.04%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.49%EV -4.86%E -1.65%K -2.49%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-09-30 05:54 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 67.36%EV -3.79%E -2.67%K -9.04%G +0.000% | 2.93I 34.13%NM 32.64%EV -5.51%E -1.88%K -2.85%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-09-30 03:10 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 67.36%EV -3.79%E -2.67%K -9.04%G +0.000% | 2.93I 34.13%NM 32.64%EV -5.51%E -1.88%K -2.85%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-09-30 03:10 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 65.95%EV -3.79%E -2.67%K -9.04%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.05%EV -11.31%E -4.11%K -6.46%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-09-30 02:05 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 65.95%EV -3.79%E -2.67%K -9.04%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.05%EV -11.31%E -4.11%K -6.46%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-09-30 02:05 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.41I 70.92%NM 68.31%EV -4.47%E -3.17%K -10.91%G +0.000% | 3.04I 32.89%NM 31.69%EV -1.96%E -0.645%K -0.961%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-09-30 08:14 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.41I 70.92%NM 67.59%EV -4.47%E -3.17%K -10.91%G +0.000% | 2.94I 34.01%NM 32.41%EV -5.19%E -1.76%K -2.67%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-09-30 05:54 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -5.15%E -3.68%K -12.87%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV -3.25%E -1.08%K -1.63%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-09-29 22:10 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.82%EV -5.15%E -3.68%K -12.87%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.18%EV -4.86%E -1.65%K -2.49%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-09-30 03:15 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.82%EV -5.15%E -3.68%K -12.87%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.18%EV -4.86%E -1.65%K -2.49%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-09-30 02:05 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -5.15%E -3.68%K -12.87%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -6.48%E -2.23%K -3.41%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-09-30 06:50 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -5.15%E -3.68%K -12.87%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -6.48%E -2.23%K -3.41%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-09-29 22:05 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -5.15%E -3.68%K -12.87%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -6.48%E -2.23%K -3.41%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-09-29 22:05 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -5.15%E -3.68%K -12.87%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -6.48%E -2.23%K -3.41%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-09-29 22:05 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -5.15%E -3.68%K -12.87%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -6.48%E -2.23%K -3.41%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-09-29 22:05 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -5.15%E -3.68%K -12.87%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -6.48%E -2.23%K -3.41%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-09-30 02:05 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.21%EV -5.15%E -3.68%K -12.87%G +0.000% | 2.87I 34.84%NM 32.79%EV -7.44%E -2.59%K -3.98%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-09-30 02:05 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.21%EV -5.15%E -3.68%K -12.87%G +0.000% | 2.87I 34.84%NM 32.79%EV -7.44%E -2.59%K -3.98%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-09-30 02:05 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.06%EV -5.15%E -3.68%K -12.87%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 32.94%EV -8.09%E -2.84%K -4.37%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-09-30 02:05 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 66.67%EV -5.15%E -3.68%K -12.87%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.33%EV -9.70%E -3.46%K -5.39%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-09-30 03:10 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 66.67%EV -5.15%E -3.68%K -12.87%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.33%EV -9.70%E -3.46%K -5.39%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-09-30 08:13 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 66.67%EV -5.15%E -3.68%K -12.87%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.33%EV -9.70%E -3.46%K -5.39%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-09-30 08:13 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.39I 71.94%NM 68.55%EV -5.83%E -4.19%K -14.94%G +0.000% | 3.03I 33.00%NM 31.45%EV -2.28%E -0.753%K -1.12%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-09-30 06:30 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.39I 71.94%NM 68.12%EV -5.83%E -4.19%K -14.94%G +0.000% | 2.97I 33.67%NM 31.88%EV -4.22%E -1.42%K -2.14%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-09-30 06:25 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.39I 71.94%NM 67.97%EV -5.83%E -4.19%K -14.94%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.03%EV -4.86%E -1.65%K -2.49%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-09-30 03:05 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.39I 71.94%NM 67.97%EV -5.83%E -4.19%K -14.94%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.03%EV -4.86%E -1.65%K -2.49%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-09-30 02:05 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.39I 71.94%NM 67.97%EV -5.83%E -4.19%K -14.94%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.03%EV -4.86%E -1.65%K -2.49%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-09-30 03:12 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.85%EV -6.50%E -4.71%K -17.12%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.15%EV -1.64%E -0.537%K -0.799%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-09-30 02:05 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.49%EV -6.50%E -4.71%K -17.12%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.51%EV -3.25%E -1.08%K -1.63%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-09-29 07:54 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.49%EV -6.50%E -4.71%K -17.12%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.51%EV -3.25%E -1.08%K -1.63%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-09-29 07:55 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.49%EV -6.50%E -4.71%K -17.12%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.51%EV -3.25%E -1.08%K -1.63%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-09-29 07:55 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.49%EV -6.50%E -4.71%K -17.12%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.51%EV -3.25%E -1.08%K -1.63%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-09-30 06:45 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.49%EV -6.50%E -4.71%K -17.12%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.51%EV -3.25%E -1.08%K -1.63%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-09-29 07:55 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.49%EV -6.50%E -4.71%K -17.12%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.51%EV -3.25%E -1.08%K -1.63%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-09-29 07:55 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.49%EV -6.50%E -4.71%K -17.12%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.51%EV -3.25%E -1.08%K -1.63%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-09-29 07:55 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.49%EV -6.50%E -4.71%K -17.12%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.51%EV -3.25%E -1.08%K -1.63%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-09-29 07:54 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.49%EV -6.50%E -4.71%K -17.12%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.51%EV -3.25%E -1.08%K -1.63%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-09-29 07:55 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.49%EV -6.50%E -4.71%K -17.12%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.51%EV -3.25%E -1.08%K -1.63%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-09-29 07:55 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.49%EV -6.50%E -4.71%K -17.12%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.51%EV -3.25%E -1.08%K -1.63%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-09-29 07:55 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.49%EV -6.50%E -4.71%K -17.12%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.51%EV -3.25%E -1.08%K -1.63%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-09-29 11:55 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.49%EV -6.50%E -4.71%K -17.12%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.51%EV -3.25%E -1.08%K -1.63%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-09-29 11:55 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.49%EV -6.50%E -4.71%K -17.12%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.51%EV -3.25%E -1.08%K -1.63%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-09-29 16:55 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 67.76%EV -6.50%E -4.71%K -17.12%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.24%EV -6.48%E -2.23%K -3.41%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-09-30 02:05 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.37I 72.99%NM 67.76%EV -7.18%E -5.24%K -19.41%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 32.24%EV -7.12%E -2.47%K -3.79%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-09-30 02:05 |
| ReBet🎯 | 1.37I 72.99%NM 67.54%EV -7.18%E -5.24%K -19.41%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 32.46%EV -8.09%E -2.84%K -4.37%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-09-30 02:54 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 67.92%EV -7.86%E -5.78%K -21.83%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 32.08%EV -7.12%E -2.47%K -3.79%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-09-29 21:39 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 67.92%EV -7.86%E -5.78%K -21.83%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 32.08%EV -7.12%E -2.47%K -3.79%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-09-29 22:00 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 67.70%EV -7.86%E -5.78%K -21.83%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 32.30%EV -8.09%E -2.84%K -4.37%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-09-30 03:15 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 69.18%EV -8.54%E -6.32%K -24.39%G +0.000% | 3.03I 33.00%NM 30.82%EV -2.28%E -0.753%K -1.12%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-09-30 02:05 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 68.60%EV -8.54%E -6.32%K -24.39%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.40%EV -4.86%E -1.65%K -2.49%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-09-29 21:45 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.34I 74.63%NM 66.83%EV -9.21%E -6.88%K -27.10%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 33.17%EV -12.93%E -4.79%K -7.60%G +0.000% | 11.7% | 2026-09-30 02:05 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 68.18%EV -9.89%E -7.44%K -29.98%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 31.82%EV -8.09%E -2.84%K -4.37%G +0.000% | 10.3% | 2026-09-29 15:20 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (4)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.46I 68.49%NM 67.63% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 32.37% | 1.3% | 2026-09-30 03:15 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.46I 68.49%NM 67.63% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 32.37% | 1.3% | 2026-09-30 03:15 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.46I 68.49%NM 67.63% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 32.37% | 1.3% | 2026-09-30 03:10 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.41I 70.92%NM 55.80% | 1.78I 56.18%NM 44.20% | 27.1% | 2026-09-30 05:44 |