StandardmodellInterkvartilmedelvärde (Kurerad lista)

Lorenzo Musetti v Arthur Fery

2026-09-30 02:00 UTC — ATP Japan Open

Matchresultat

37 spelbolag (10 i analysen )

Beräknad sannolikhet för varje utfall enligt modellen: Interkvartilmedelvärde (Kurerad lista)

Lorenzo Musetti (Hemma)

Prognos 66.82%1.50rättvist odds
EV -2.44%
Fördel -1.67%
Kelly -5.31%
Tillväxt +0.000%

med antagandet om högsta odds 1.46

Fördelning av spelbolagens sannolikhetsprognoser
64.39%66.67%66.67%68.49%MIN.MEDELVÄRDEMEDIANMAX.
Oddsfördelning
1.381.401.401.4672.46%71.26%71.43%68.49%MIN.MEDELVÄRDEMEDIANMAX.

Arthur Fery (Borta)

Prognos 33.18%3.01rättvist odds
EV +0.866%
Fördel +0.285%
Kelly +0.425%
Tillväxt +0.004%

med antagandet om högsta odds 3.04

Fördelning av spelbolagens sannolikhetsprognoser
31.51%33.33%33.33%35.61%MIN.MEDELVÄRDEMEDIANMAX.
Oddsfördelning
2.552.872.903.0439.22%34.80%34.48%32.89%MIN.MEDELVÄRDEMEDIANMAX.

För Matchresultat uppskattar Interkvartilmedelvärde (Kurerad lista) följande sannolikheter: Lorenzo Musetti (Hemma): 66.82%; Arthur Fery (Borta): 33.18%. För Arthur Fery (Borta) motsvarar uppskattningen ett rättvist decimalodds på 3.01. 1 spelbolag erbjuder odds över den nivån; bästa tillgängliga odds är 3.04, vilket ger ett positivt väntevärde på +0.866%.

Spelbolagsodds (37 spelbolag)

Vi är inte knutna till något spelbolag och får ingen ersättning för transaktioner som genomförs hos dem.

SpelbolagHemmaBorta ▼MarginalUppdaterat
BetUS🎯1.41I 70.92%NM 68.31%EV -5.78%E -4.10%K -14.11%G +0.000%3.04I 32.89%NM 31.69%EV +0.866%E +0.285%K +0.425%G +0.004%3.8%2026-09-29 08:00
Unibet🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 68.49%EV -7.79%E -5.64%K -20.49%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.51%EV -0.461%E -0.154%K -0.231%G +0.000%5.8%2026-09-29 07:54
Grosvenor🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 68.49%EV -7.79%E -5.64%K -20.49%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.51%EV -0.461%E -0.154%K -0.231%G +0.000%5.8%2026-09-29 07:55
Casumo🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 68.49%EV -7.79%E -5.64%K -20.49%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.51%EV -0.461%E -0.154%K -0.231%G +0.000%5.8%2026-09-29 07:55
ATG (SE)🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 68.49%EV -7.79%E -5.64%K -20.49%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.51%EV -0.461%E -0.154%K -0.231%G +0.000%5.8%2026-09-29 07:55
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 68.49%EV -7.79%E -5.64%K -20.49%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.51%EV -0.461%E -0.154%K -0.231%G +0.000%5.8%2026-09-29 07:55
betPARX🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 68.49%EV -7.79%E -5.64%K -20.49%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.51%EV -0.461%E -0.154%K -0.231%G +0.000%5.8%2026-09-29 07:55
Unibet (SE)🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 68.49%EV -7.79%E -5.64%K -20.49%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.51%EV -0.461%E -0.154%K -0.231%G +0.000%5.8%2026-09-29 07:54
Unibet (NL)🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 68.49%EV -7.79%E -5.64%K -20.49%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.51%EV -0.461%E -0.154%K -0.231%G +0.000%5.8%2026-09-29 07:55
TABtouch🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 68.49%EV -7.79%E -5.64%K -20.49%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.51%EV -0.461%E -0.154%K -0.231%G +0.000%5.8%2026-09-29 07:55
Svenska Spel🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 68.49%EV -7.79%E -5.64%K -20.49%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.51%EV -0.461%E -0.154%K -0.231%G +0.000%5.8%2026-09-29 07:55
Pinnacle🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 67.65%EV -4.45%E -3.11%K -10.34%G +0.000%2.99I 33.44%NM 32.35%EV -0.793%E -0.265%K -0.398%G +0.000%3.4%2026-09-29 08:00
Bet Right🎯1.41I 70.92%NM 67.44%EV -5.78%E -4.10%K -14.11%G +0.000%2.92I 34.25%NM 32.56%EV -3.12%E -1.07%K -1.62%G +0.000%5.2%2026-09-29 08:00
Bovada🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 66.97%EV -4.45%E -3.11%K -10.34%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 33.03%EV -3.78%E -1.30%K -1.99%G +0.000%4.4%2026-09-29 07:47
FanDuel🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 67.13%EV -5.12%E -3.60%K -12.18%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.87%EV -3.78%E -1.30%K -1.99%G +0.000%4.9%2026-09-29 08:00
Betway🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -6.45%E -4.61%K -16.13%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -3.78%E -1.30%K -1.99%G +0.000%5.9%2026-09-29 08:00
Betr (AU)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -6.45%E -4.61%K -16.13%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -3.78%E -1.30%K -1.99%G +0.000%5.9%2026-09-29 08:00
William Hill🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -6.45%E -4.61%K -16.13%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -3.78%E -1.30%K -1.99%G +0.000%5.9%2026-09-29 07:50
888sport🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -6.45%E -4.61%K -16.13%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -3.78%E -1.30%K -1.99%G +0.000%5.9%2026-09-29 07:50
888sport (SE)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -6.45%E -4.61%K -16.13%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -3.78%E -1.30%K -1.99%G +0.000%5.9%2026-09-29 07:50
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -6.45%E -4.61%K -16.13%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -3.78%E -1.30%K -1.99%G +0.000%5.9%2026-09-29 07:50
BoyleSports🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 66.67%EV -3.78%E -2.62%K -8.59%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 33.33%EV -4.44%E -1.54%K -2.36%G +0.000%4.2%2026-09-29 08:04
SportsBet🎯1.39I 71.94%NM 67.29%EV -7.12%E -5.12%K -18.26%G +0.000%2.86I 34.97%NM 32.71%EV -5.11%E -1.79%K -2.75%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-29 08:00
Marathon Bet🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 66.67%EV -5.12%E -3.60%K -12.18%G +0.000%2.84I 35.21%NM 33.33%EV -5.77%E -2.03%K -3.14%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-29 08:01
Unibet (UK)🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 66.35%EV -5.12%E -3.60%K -12.18%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.65%EV -7.10%E -2.53%K -3.94%G +0.000%6.1%2026-09-29 08:00
theScore Bet🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 66.67%EV -6.45%E -4.61%K -16.13%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.33%EV -7.10%E -2.53%K -3.94%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-29 08:00
TAB🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 66.67%EV -6.45%E -4.61%K -16.13%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.33%EV -7.10%E -2.53%K -3.94%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-29 08:00
LeoVegas🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 66.99%EV -7.79%E -5.64%K -20.49%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.01%EV -7.10%E -2.53%K -3.94%G +0.000%8.2%2026-09-29 08:00
Paddy Power🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 66.27%EV -6.45%E -4.61%K -16.13%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%EV -8.76%E -3.18%K -5.00%G +0.000%7.8%2026-09-29 05:29
Coral🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 66.27%EV -6.45%E -4.61%K -16.13%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%EV -8.76%E -3.18%K -5.00%G +0.000%7.8%2026-09-29 05:45
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 66.27%EV -6.45%E -4.61%K -16.13%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%EV -8.76%E -3.18%K -5.00%G +0.000%7.8%2026-09-29 05:45
betano_uk🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 66.27%EV -6.45%E -4.61%K -16.13%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%EV -8.76%E -3.18%K -5.00%G +0.000%7.8%2026-09-29 07:50
Bet Victor🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 66.27%EV -6.45%E -4.61%K -16.13%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%EV -8.76%E -3.18%K -5.00%G +0.000%7.8%2026-09-29 07:49
Winamax (DE)🎯1.46I 68.49%NM 64.90%EV -2.44%E -1.67%K -5.31%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.10%EV -10.41%E -3.86%K -6.13%G +0.000%5.5%2026-09-29 08:00
Neds🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 65.06%EV -3.11%E -2.15%K -6.91%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.94%EV -10.41%E -3.86%K -6.13%G +0.000%6.0%2026-09-29 05:30
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 65.06%EV -3.11%E -2.15%K -6.91%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.94%EV -10.41%E -3.86%K -6.13%G +0.000%6.0%2026-09-29 05:30
Winamax (FR)🎯1.41I 70.92%NM 64.39%EV -5.78%E -4.10%K -14.11%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 35.61%EV -15.39%E -6.04%K -9.93%G +0.000%10.1%2026-09-29 08:00
Marginal = Marginal · I = Implicit sannolikhet · NM = Marginalrensad sannolikhet · EV = Väntevärde · E = Fördel · K = Kelly-kriteriet · G = Spelkapitalets tillväxt

Uppdaterat anger när respektive spelbolag senast ändrade sitt odds. En äldre tidpunkt betyder därför att oddset inte har rört sig, inte att det är inaktuellt. Spelbolag som inte har observerats under de senaste cirka 15 minuterna utesluts normalt; endast om dataflödet för en hel marknad tystnar visas i stället de senast registrerade oddsen.

Spelbörser (4)

SpelbolagHemmaBortaMarginal ▲Uppdaterat
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.50I 66.67%NM 66.22%2.94I 34.01%NM 33.78%0.7%2026-09-29 08:05
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.50I 66.67%NM 66.06%2.92I 34.25%NM 33.94%0.9%2026-09-29 07:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.50I 66.67%NM 66.06%2.92I 34.25%NM 33.94%0.9%2026-09-29 07:54
Matchbook◎1.49I 67.11%NM 66.37%2.94I 34.01%NM 33.63%1.1%2026-09-29 08:00