Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Holger Rune v Kyrian Jacquet

2026-09-30 02:00 UTC — ATP Japan Open

Head to Head

33 sportsbooks (9 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Holger Rune (Local)

Prediction 63.41%1.58fair odd
EV -2.98%
Edge -1.95%
Kelly -5.63%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.53

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
62.02%63.62%63.29%65.95%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.421.501.511.5370.42%66.73%66.23%65.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Kyrian Jacquet (Visit)

Prediction 36.59%2.73fair odd
EV +0.621%
Edge +0.226%
Kelly +0.355%
Growth +0.002%

assuming max odds 2.75

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
34.05%36.38%36.71%37.98%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.402.552.502.7541.67%39.27%40.00%36.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Holger Rune (Local): 63.41%; Kyrian Jacquet (Visit): 36.59%. For Kyrian Jacquet (Visit), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.73. 2 bookmakers offer odds above that level; the best available odds are 2.75, producing a positive expected value of +0.621%.

Sportsbook Odds (33 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
Betway🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%EV -8.05%E -5.55%K -17.90%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV +0.621%E +0.226%K +0.355%G +0.002%5.3%2026-09-29 05:29
theScore Bet🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 65.95%EV -9.96%E -7.01%K -23.71%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.05%EV +0.621%E +0.226%K +0.355%G +0.002%6.8%2026-09-29 05:30
FanDuel🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 64.76%EV -6.15%E -4.16%K -12.82%G +0.000%2.72I 36.76%NM 35.24%EV -0.477%E -0.175%K -0.277%G +0.000%4.3%2026-09-29 05:30
BetUS🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 64.35%EV -5.52%E -3.70%K -11.26%G +0.000%2.69I 37.17%NM 35.65%EV -1.57%E -0.585%K -0.932%G +0.000%4.3%2026-09-29 05:29
SportsBet🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 64.96%EV -8.69%E -6.03%K -19.75%G +0.000%2.67I 37.45%NM 35.04%EV -2.31%E -0.864%K -1.38%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-29 05:35
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 63.68%EV -4.88%E -3.26%K -9.77%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 36.32%EV -3.77%E -1.43%K -2.31%G +0.000%4.7%2026-09-29 06:25
Paddy Power🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 64.53%EV -8.69%E -6.03%K -19.75%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 35.47%EV -4.14%E -1.58%K -2.55%G +0.000%7.6%2026-09-29 05:29
Bovada🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 63.26%EV -4.25%E -2.81%K -8.33%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.74%EV -4.87%E -1.87%K -3.04%G +0.000%4.7%2026-09-29 05:26
Marathon Bet🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 63.57%EV -5.52%E -3.70%K -11.26%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.43%EV -4.87%E -1.87%K -3.04%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-29 05:28
Bet Right🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 63.08%EV -4.25%E -2.81%K -8.33%G +0.000%2.58I 38.76%NM 36.92%EV -5.60%E -2.17%K -3.54%G +0.000%5.0%2026-09-29 05:29
Betr (AU)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 62.96%EV -4.88%E -3.26%K -9.77%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV -6.70%E -2.63%K -4.32%G +0.000%5.9%2026-09-29 05:29
Winamax (DE)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 62.96%EV -4.88%E -3.26%K -9.77%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV -6.70%E -2.63%K -4.32%G +0.000%5.9%2026-09-29 05:55
Unibet (UK)🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 63.09%EV -6.15%E -4.16%K -12.82%G +0.000%2.53I 39.53%NM 36.91%EV -7.43%E -2.94%K -4.86%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-29 05:50
Unibet🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -2.98%E -1.95%K -5.63%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -8.53%E -3.41%K -5.68%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-29 05:30
BoyleSports🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -2.98%E -1.95%K -5.63%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -8.53%E -3.41%K -5.68%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-29 05:29
Grosvenor🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -2.98%E -1.95%K -5.63%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -8.53%E -3.41%K -5.68%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-29 05:30
Casumo🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -2.98%E -1.95%K -5.63%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -8.53%E -3.41%K -5.68%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-29 05:30
ATG (SE)🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -2.98%E -1.95%K -5.63%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -8.53%E -3.41%K -5.68%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-29 05:29
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -2.98%E -1.95%K -5.63%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -8.53%E -3.41%K -5.68%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-29 05:30
betPARX🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -2.98%E -1.95%K -5.63%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -8.53%E -3.41%K -5.68%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-29 05:29
Unibet (SE)🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -2.98%E -1.95%K -5.63%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -8.53%E -3.41%K -5.68%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-29 05:40
Unibet (NL)🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -2.98%E -1.95%K -5.63%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -8.53%E -3.41%K -5.68%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-29 05:40
TABtouch🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -2.98%E -1.95%K -5.63%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -8.53%E -3.41%K -5.68%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-29 05:40
Svenska Spel🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -2.98%E -1.95%K -5.63%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -8.53%E -3.41%K -5.68%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-29 05:45
William Hill🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -2.98%E -1.95%K -5.63%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -8.53%E -3.41%K -5.68%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-29 05:50
888sport🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -2.98%E -1.95%K -5.63%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -8.53%E -3.41%K -5.68%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-29 05:50
888sport (SE)🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -2.98%E -1.95%K -5.63%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -8.53%E -3.41%K -5.68%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-29 05:50
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -2.98%E -1.95%K -5.63%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -8.53%E -3.41%K -5.68%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-29 05:55
LeoVegas🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 62.97%EV -6.79%E -4.62%K -14.44%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.03%EV -8.53%E -3.41%K -5.68%G +0.000%8.0%2026-09-29 06:05
betano_uk🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 63.29%EV -8.05%E -5.55%K -17.90%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.71%EV -8.53%E -3.41%K -5.68%G +0.000%9.0%2026-09-29 06:05
Bet Victor🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 63.29%EV -8.05%E -5.55%K -17.90%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.71%EV -8.53%E -3.41%K -5.68%G +0.000%9.0%2026-09-29 06:09
PMU (FR)🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 62.02%EV -6.79%E -4.62%K -14.44%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.98%EV -12.19%E -5.08%K -8.70%G +0.000%9.7%2026-09-29 05:40
Winamax (FR)🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 62.34%EV -8.05%E -5.55%K -17.90%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.66%EV -12.19%E -5.08%K -8.70%G +0.000%10.6%2026-09-29 05:50
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (4)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Matchbook◎1.43I 69.93%NM 61.66%2.30I 43.48%NM 38.34%13.4%2026-09-29 07:10
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.32I 75.76%NM 64.89%2.44I 40.98%NM 35.11%16.7%2026-09-29 07:10
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.32I 75.76%NM 64.89%2.44I 40.98%NM 35.11%16.7%2026-09-29 06:20
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.32I 75.76%NM 64.89%2.44I 40.98%NM 35.11%16.7%2026-09-29 07:10