Language:English
Tomas Machac v Daniil Medvedev
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Tomas Machac (Local)
Prediction 42.81%2.34fair odd
EV -0.684%
Edge -0.295%
Kelly -0.518%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.32
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
40.26%42.87%42.60%45.95%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.002.212.232.3250.00%45.35%44.84%43.10%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Daniil Medvedev (Visit)
Prediction 57.19%1.75fair odd
EV -0.487%
Edge -0.280%
Kelly -0.658%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.74
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
54.05%57.13%57.40%59.74%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.551.661.651.7464.52%60.31%60.61%57.47%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Tomas Machac (Local): 42.81%; Daniil Medvedev (Visit): 57.19%. For Daniil Medvedev (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.75. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 1.74, with an expected value of -0.487%; they did not produce positive expected value.
Sportsbook Odds (62 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FanDuel🎯 | 2.32I 43.10%NM 41.12%EV -0.684%E -0.295%K -0.518%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.88%EV -7.35%E -4.54%K -11.85%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-05-09 07:44 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 42.21%EV -1.54%E -0.670%K -1.18%G +0.000% | 1.68I 59.52%NM 57.79%EV -3.92%E -2.33%K -5.76%G +0.000% | 3.0% | 2026-05-09 05:34 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -1.54%E -0.670%K -1.18%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -7.35%E -4.54%K -11.85%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-05-09 07:44 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -1.54%E -0.670%K -1.18%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -7.35%E -4.54%K -11.85%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-05-09 07:44 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.26%EV -1.54%E -0.670%K -1.18%G +0.000% | 1.55I 64.52%NM 59.74%EV -11.35%E -7.32%K -20.64%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-05-09 06:30 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 2.29I 43.67%NM 42.32%EV -1.97%E -0.859%K -1.53%G +0.000% | 1.68I 59.52%NM 57.68%EV -3.92%E -2.33%K -5.76%G +0.000% | 3.2% | 2026-05-09 07:49 |
| GTbets🎯 | 2.28I 43.86%NM 42.13%EV -2.40%E -1.05%K -1.87%G +0.000% | 1.66I 60.24%NM 57.87%EV -5.06%E -3.05%K -7.67%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-05-09 06:49 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.75%EV -3.68%E -1.64%K -2.94%G +0.000% | 1.68I 59.52%NM 57.25%EV -3.92%E -2.33%K -5.76%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-05-09 06:49 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.60%EV -3.68%E -1.64%K -2.94%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 57.40%EV -4.49%E -2.69%K -6.70%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-05-09 06:29 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.60%EV -3.68%E -1.64%K -2.94%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 57.40%EV -4.49%E -2.69%K -6.70%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-05-09 07:54 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -3.68%E -1.64%K -2.94%G +0.000% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -5.63%E -3.41%K -8.67%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-09 01:58 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -3.68%E -1.64%K -2.94%G +0.000% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -5.63%E -3.41%K -8.67%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-09 06:29 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.01%EV -3.68%E -1.64%K -2.94%G +0.000% | 1.63I 61.35%NM 57.99%EV -6.78%E -4.16%K -10.76%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-05-09 06:29 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.86%EV -3.68%E -1.64%K -2.94%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%EV -7.35%E -4.54%K -11.85%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-05-09 07:55 |
| Betsson🎯 | 2.24I 44.64%NM 42.56%EV -4.11%E -1.83%K -3.31%G +0.000% | 1.66I 60.24%NM 57.44%EV -5.06%E -3.05%K -7.67%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-05-09 07:53 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 2.24I 44.64%NM 42.56%EV -4.11%E -1.83%K -3.31%G +0.000% | 1.66I 60.24%NM 57.44%EV -5.06%E -3.05%K -7.67%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-05-09 07:53 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 2.24I 44.64%NM 42.42%EV -4.11%E -1.83%K -3.31%G +0.000% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.58%EV -5.63%E -3.41%K -8.67%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-05-09 07:53 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 2.24I 44.64%NM 42.42%EV -4.11%E -1.83%K -3.31%G +0.000% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.58%EV -5.63%E -3.41%K -8.67%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-05-09 05:34 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 2.23I 44.84%NM 43.11%EV -4.54%E -2.03%K -3.69%G +0.000% | 1.69I 59.17%NM 56.89%EV -3.35%E -1.98%K -4.85%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-05-09 08:00 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 2.23I 44.84%NM 42.53%EV -4.54%E -2.03%K -3.69%G +0.000% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.47%EV -5.63%E -3.41%K -8.67%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-05-09 06:29 |
| Unibet🎯 | 2.23I 44.84%NM 42.53%EV -4.54%E -2.03%K -3.69%G +0.000% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.47%EV -5.63%E -3.41%K -8.67%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-05-09 06:29 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 2.23I 44.84%NM 42.53%EV -4.54%E -2.03%K -3.69%G +0.000% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.47%EV -5.63%E -3.41%K -8.67%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-05-09 06:29 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 2.23I 44.84%NM 42.53%EV -4.54%E -2.03%K -3.69%G +0.000% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.47%EV -5.63%E -3.41%K -8.67%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-05-09 06:29 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 2.23I 44.84%NM 42.53%EV -4.54%E -2.03%K -3.69%G +0.000% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.47%EV -5.63%E -3.41%K -8.67%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-05-09 06:29 |
| betPARX🎯 | 2.23I 44.84%NM 42.53%EV -4.54%E -2.03%K -3.69%G +0.000% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.47%EV -5.63%E -3.41%K -8.67%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-05-09 06:30 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 2.23I 44.84%NM 42.53%EV -4.54%E -2.03%K -3.69%G +0.000% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.47%EV -5.63%E -3.41%K -8.67%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-05-09 06:29 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 2.23I 44.84%NM 42.53%EV -4.54%E -2.03%K -3.69%G +0.000% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.47%EV -5.63%E -3.41%K -8.67%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-05-09 06:29 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 2.23I 44.84%NM 42.53%EV -4.54%E -2.03%K -3.69%G +0.000% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.47%EV -5.63%E -3.41%K -8.67%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-05-09 06:29 |
| Casumo🎯 | 2.23I 44.84%NM 42.53%EV -4.54%E -2.03%K -3.69%G +0.000% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.47%EV -5.63%E -3.41%K -8.67%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-05-09 06:29 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 2.23I 44.84%NM 42.53%EV -4.54%E -2.03%K -3.69%G +0.000% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.47%EV -5.63%E -3.41%K -8.67%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-05-09 06:29 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 2.23I 44.84%NM 42.53%EV -4.54%E -2.03%K -3.69%G +0.000% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.47%EV -5.63%E -3.41%K -8.67%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-05-09 06:30 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 2.23I 44.84%NM 42.53%EV -4.54%E -2.03%K -3.69%G +0.000% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.47%EV -5.63%E -3.41%K -8.67%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-05-09 06:29 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 2.22I 45.05%NM 42.49%EV -4.96%E -2.24%K -4.07%G +0.000% | 1.64I 60.98%NM 57.51%EV -6.21%E -3.78%K -9.70%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-05-09 07:59 |
| ReBet🎯 | 2.22I 45.05%NM 42.49%EV -4.96%E -2.24%K -4.07%G +0.000% | 1.64I 60.98%NM 57.51%EV -6.21%E -3.78%K -9.70%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-05-09 07:54 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -5.82%E -2.65%K -4.85%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -4.49%E -2.69%K -6.70%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-09 07:59 |
| 888sport🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -5.82%E -2.65%K -4.85%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -4.49%E -2.69%K -6.70%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-09 05:34 |
| Caesars🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -5.82%E -2.65%K -4.85%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -4.49%E -2.69%K -6.70%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-09 07:04 |
| William Hill🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -5.82%E -2.65%K -4.85%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -4.49%E -2.69%K -6.70%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-09 05:34 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -5.82%E -2.65%K -4.85%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -4.49%E -2.69%K -6.70%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-09 05:34 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -5.82%E -2.65%K -4.85%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -4.49%E -2.69%K -6.70%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-09 05:34 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.71%EV -5.82%E -2.65%K -4.85%G +0.000% | 1.64I 60.98%NM 57.29%EV -6.21%E -3.78%K -9.70%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-05-09 07:35 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.71%EV -5.82%E -2.65%K -4.85%G +0.000% | 1.64I 60.98%NM 57.29%EV -6.21%E -3.78%K -9.70%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-05-09 06:50 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.71%EV -5.82%E -2.65%K -4.85%G +0.000% | 1.64I 60.98%NM 57.29%EV -6.21%E -3.78%K -9.70%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-05-09 06:29 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.56%EV -5.82%E -2.65%K -4.85%G +0.000% | 1.63I 61.35%NM 57.44%EV -6.78%E -4.16%K -10.76%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-05-09 06:29 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.56%EV -5.82%E -2.65%K -4.85%G +0.000% | 1.63I 61.35%NM 57.44%EV -6.78%E -4.16%K -10.76%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-05-09 06:29 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 2.19I 45.66%NM 43.41%EV -6.25%E -2.85%K -5.25%G +0.000% | 1.68I 59.52%NM 56.59%EV -3.92%E -2.33%K -5.76%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-05-09 06:49 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 2.16I 46.30%NM 44.62%EV -7.53%E -3.49%K -6.49%G +0.000% | 1.74I 57.47%NM 55.38%EV -0.487%E -0.280%K -0.658%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-05-09 07:55 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 2.16I 46.30%NM 44.62%EV -7.53%E -3.49%K -6.49%G +0.000% | 1.74I 57.47%NM 55.38%EV -0.487%E -0.280%K -0.658%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-05-09 07:54 |
| BetUS🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.01%EV -7.96%E -3.70%K -6.92%G +0.000% | 1.69I 59.17%NM 55.99%EV -3.35%E -1.98%K -4.85%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-05-09 07:54 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.72%EV -7.96%E -3.70%K -6.92%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.28%EV -4.49%E -2.69%K -6.70%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-05-09 06:29 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.42%EV -7.96%E -3.70%K -6.92%G +0.000% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 56.58%EV -5.63%E -3.41%K -8.67%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-05-09 07:55 |
| Fliff🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.42%EV -7.96%E -3.70%K -6.92%G +0.000% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 56.58%EV -5.63%E -3.41%K -8.67%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-05-09 07:50 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 2.12I 47.17%NM 44.50%EV -9.25%E -4.36%K -8.26%G +0.000% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.50%EV -2.77%E -1.63%K -3.96%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-05-09 07:54 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 2.12I 47.17%NM 43.77%EV -9.25%E -4.36%K -8.26%G +0.000% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 56.23%EV -5.63%E -3.41%K -8.67%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-05-09 07:54 |
| Betway🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -10.10%E -4.81%K -9.18%G +0.000% | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -1.06%E -0.612%K -1.45%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-05-09 07:54 |
| TAB🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.74%EV -10.10%E -4.81%K -9.18%G +0.000% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.26%EV -2.77%E -1.63%K -3.96%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-05-09 07:54 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.30%EV -10.10%E -4.81%K -9.18%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 55.70%EV -4.49%E -2.69%K -6.70%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-05-09 07:58 |
| Coral🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.00%EV -10.10%E -4.81%K -9.18%G +0.000% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 56.00%EV -5.63%E -3.41%K -8.67%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-05-09 06:29 |
| Neds🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.00%EV -10.10%E -4.81%K -9.18%G +0.000% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 56.00%EV -5.63%E -3.41%K -8.67%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-05-09 06:29 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.00%EV -10.10%E -4.81%K -9.18%G +0.000% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 56.00%EV -5.63%E -3.41%K -8.67%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-05-09 06:29 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.00%EV -10.10%E -4.81%K -9.18%G +0.000% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 56.00%EV -5.63%E -3.41%K -8.67%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-05-09 06:29 |
| Everygame🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 45.95%EV -14.38%E -7.19%K -14.38%G +0.000% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 54.05%EV -2.77%E -1.63%K -3.96%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-05-09 07:54 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (6)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 2.26I 44.25%NM 44.06% | 1.78I 56.18%NM 55.94% | 0.4% | 2026-05-09 07:54 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 2.26I 44.25%NM 44.06% | 1.78I 56.18%NM 55.94% | 0.4% | 2026-05-09 07:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 2.26I 44.25%NM 44.06% | 1.78I 56.18%NM 55.94% | 0.4% | 2026-05-09 07:54 |
| Novig◎ | 2.29I 43.67%NM 43.18% | 1.74I 57.47%NM 56.82% | 1.1% | 2026-05-09 07:54 |
| Smarkets◎ | 2.22I 45.05%NM 44.50% | 1.78I 56.18%NM 55.50% | 1.2% | 2026-05-09 07:54 |
| Matchbook◎ | 2.22I 45.05%NM 44.50% | 1.78I 56.18%NM 55.50% | 1.2% | 2026-05-09 07:50 |