Language:English
Thiago Agustin Tirante v Cameron Norrie
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Thiago Agustin Tirante (Local)
Prediction 40.98%2.44fair odd
EV -1.24%
Edge -0.514%
Kelly -0.879%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.41
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
39.28%40.96%41.03%42.31%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.202.302.302.4145.45%43.39%43.48%41.49%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Cameron Norrie (Visit)
Prediction 59.02%1.69fair odd
EV -2.03%
Edge -1.22%
Kelly -3.07%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.66
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
57.69%59.04%58.97%60.72%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.521.611.611.6665.79%62.27%62.11%60.24%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Thiago Agustin Tirante (Local): 40.98%; Cameron Norrie (Visit): 59.02%. For Thiago Agustin Tirante (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.44. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.41, with an expected value of -1.24%; they did not produce positive expected value.
Sportsbook Odds (60 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GTbets🎯 | 2.41I 41.49%NM 40.05%EV -1.24%E -0.514%K -0.879%G +0.000% | 1.61I 62.11%NM 59.95%EV -4.98%E -3.09%K -8.16%G +0.000% | 3.6% | 2026-05-08 11:39 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 40.45%EV -1.65%E -0.687%K -1.18%G +0.000% | 1.63I 61.35%NM 59.55%EV -3.80%E -2.33%K -6.03%G +0.000% | 3.0% | 2026-05-09 08:49 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 2.37I 42.19%NM 40.90%EV -2.88%E -1.21%K -2.10%G +0.000% | 1.64I 60.98%NM 59.10%EV -3.21%E -1.96%K -5.01%G +0.000% | 3.2% | 2026-05-09 05:45 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 2.37I 42.19%NM 40.90%EV -2.88%E -1.21%K -2.10%G +0.000% | 1.64I 60.98%NM 59.10%EV -3.21%E -1.96%K -5.01%G +0.000% | 3.2% | 2026-05-09 05:44 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 2.36I 42.37%NM 40.55%EV -3.29%E -1.39%K -2.42%G +0.000% | 1.61I 62.11%NM 59.45%EV -4.98%E -3.09%K -8.16%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-05-09 06:29 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 2.36I 42.37%NM 39.95%EV -3.29%E -1.39%K -2.42%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.05%EV -7.34%E -4.67%K -12.87%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-05-09 08:46 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 41.40%EV -3.70%E -1.57%K -2.74%G +0.000% | 1.66I 60.24%NM 58.60%EV -2.03%E -1.22%K -3.07%G +0.000% | 2.8% | 2026-05-09 07:04 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.81%EV -3.70%E -1.57%K -2.74%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 59.19%EV -4.39%E -2.71%K -7.08%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-05-09 06:29 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.81%EV -3.70%E -1.57%K -2.74%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 59.19%EV -4.39%E -2.71%K -7.08%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-05-09 06:28 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.66%EV -3.70%E -1.57%K -2.74%G +0.000% | 1.61I 62.11%NM 59.34%EV -4.98%E -3.09%K -8.16%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-05-09 06:29 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -3.70%E -1.57%K -2.74%G +0.000% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -5.57%E -3.48%K -9.28%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-09 06:29 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 39.28%EV -3.70%E -1.57%K -2.74%G +0.000% | 1.52I 65.79%NM 60.72%EV -10.29%E -6.77%K -19.79%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-05-08 10:25 |
| ReBet🎯 | 2.34I 42.74%NM 40.76%EV -4.11%E -1.76%K -3.07%G +0.000% | 1.61I 62.11%NM 59.24%EV -4.98%E -3.09%K -8.16%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-05-09 08:49 |
| Betsson🎯 | 2.34I 42.74%NM 40.76%EV -4.11%E -1.76%K -3.07%G +0.000% | 1.61I 62.11%NM 59.24%EV -4.98%E -3.09%K -8.16%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-05-09 06:29 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 2.34I 42.74%NM 40.76%EV -4.11%E -1.76%K -3.07%G +0.000% | 1.61I 62.11%NM 59.24%EV -4.98%E -3.09%K -8.16%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-05-09 06:29 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 2.33I 42.92%NM 40.71%EV -4.52%E -1.94%K -3.40%G +0.000% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 59.29%EV -5.57%E -3.48%K -9.28%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-05-09 06:29 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 2.32I 43.10%NM 40.97%EV -4.93%E -2.12%K -3.73%G +0.000% | 1.61I 62.11%NM 59.03%EV -4.98%E -3.09%K -8.16%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-05-09 05:54 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 2.31I 43.29%NM 41.22%EV -5.34%E -2.31%K -4.07%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.78%EV -4.39%E -2.71%K -7.08%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-05-09 08:55 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 2.31I 43.29%NM 41.07%EV -5.34%E -2.31%K -4.07%G +0.000% | 1.61I 62.11%NM 58.93%EV -4.98%E -3.09%K -8.16%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-05-09 06:30 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 2.31I 43.29%NM 40.92%EV -5.34%E -2.31%K -4.07%G +0.000% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 59.08%EV -5.57%E -3.48%K -9.28%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-05-09 06:29 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.48%EV -5.75%E -2.50%K -4.42%G +0.000% | 1.63I 61.35%NM 58.52%EV -3.80%E -2.33%K -6.03%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-05-09 05:44 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -5.75%E -2.50%K -4.42%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -4.39%E -2.71%K -7.08%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-05-09 06:29 |
| William Hill🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -5.75%E -2.50%K -4.42%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -4.39%E -2.71%K -7.08%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-05-08 20:45 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.18%EV -5.75%E -2.50%K -4.42%G +0.000% | 1.61I 62.11%NM 58.82%EV -4.98%E -3.09%K -8.16%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-05-08 20:49 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.18%EV -5.75%E -2.50%K -4.42%G +0.000% | 1.61I 62.11%NM 58.82%EV -4.98%E -3.09%K -8.16%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-05-08 10:20 |
| Casumo🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.18%EV -5.75%E -2.50%K -4.42%G +0.000% | 1.61I 62.11%NM 58.82%EV -4.98%E -3.09%K -8.16%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-05-08 10:20 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.18%EV -5.75%E -2.50%K -4.42%G +0.000% | 1.61I 62.11%NM 58.82%EV -4.98%E -3.09%K -8.16%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-05-08 10:20 |
| Unibet🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.18%EV -5.75%E -2.50%K -4.42%G +0.000% | 1.61I 62.11%NM 58.82%EV -4.98%E -3.09%K -8.16%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-05-08 10:19 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.18%EV -5.75%E -2.50%K -4.42%G +0.000% | 1.61I 62.11%NM 58.82%EV -4.98%E -3.09%K -8.16%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-05-08 10:19 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.18%EV -5.75%E -2.50%K -4.42%G +0.000% | 1.61I 62.11%NM 58.82%EV -4.98%E -3.09%K -8.16%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-05-08 10:20 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.18%EV -5.75%E -2.50%K -4.42%G +0.000% | 1.61I 62.11%NM 58.82%EV -4.98%E -3.09%K -8.16%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-05-08 10:19 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.18%EV -5.75%E -2.50%K -4.42%G +0.000% | 1.61I 62.11%NM 58.82%EV -4.98%E -3.09%K -8.16%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-05-08 10:20 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.18%EV -5.75%E -2.50%K -4.42%G +0.000% | 1.61I 62.11%NM 58.82%EV -4.98%E -3.09%K -8.16%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-05-08 10:19 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.18%EV -5.75%E -2.50%K -4.42%G +0.000% | 1.61I 62.11%NM 58.82%EV -4.98%E -3.09%K -8.16%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-05-08 10:19 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.18%EV -5.75%E -2.50%K -4.42%G +0.000% | 1.61I 62.11%NM 58.82%EV -4.98%E -3.09%K -8.16%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-05-08 10:19 |
| betPARX🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.18%EV -5.75%E -2.50%K -4.42%G +0.000% | 1.61I 62.11%NM 58.82%EV -4.98%E -3.09%K -8.16%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-05-08 10:20 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.18%EV -5.75%E -2.50%K -4.42%G +0.000% | 1.61I 62.11%NM 58.82%EV -4.98%E -3.09%K -8.16%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-05-08 10:19 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.18%EV -5.75%E -2.50%K -4.42%G +0.000% | 1.61I 62.11%NM 58.82%EV -4.98%E -3.09%K -8.16%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-05-08 10:20 |
| 888sport🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.18%EV -5.75%E -2.50%K -4.42%G +0.000% | 1.61I 62.11%NM 58.82%EV -4.98%E -3.09%K -8.16%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-05-08 20:45 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.18%EV -5.75%E -2.50%K -4.42%G +0.000% | 1.61I 62.11%NM 58.82%EV -4.98%E -3.09%K -8.16%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-05-08 20:45 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.18%EV -5.75%E -2.50%K -4.42%G +0.000% | 1.61I 62.11%NM 58.82%EV -4.98%E -3.09%K -8.16%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-05-08 20:44 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.03%EV -5.75%E -2.50%K -4.42%G +0.000% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 58.97%EV -5.57%E -3.48%K -9.28%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-05-09 06:29 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.03%EV -5.75%E -2.50%K -4.42%G +0.000% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 58.97%EV -5.57%E -3.48%K -9.28%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-05-08 22:05 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.03%EV -5.75%E -2.50%K -4.42%G +0.000% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 58.97%EV -5.57%E -3.48%K -9.28%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-05-09 06:30 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.87%EV -5.75%E -2.50%K -4.42%G +0.000% | 1.59I 62.89%NM 59.13%EV -6.16%E -3.87%K -10.44%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-05-09 06:29 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.57%EV -5.75%E -2.50%K -4.42%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 59.43%EV -7.34%E -4.67%K -12.87%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-05-09 06:30 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 2.28I 43.86%NM 41.24%EV -6.57%E -2.88%K -5.13%G +0.000% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 58.76%EV -5.57%E -3.48%K -9.28%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-05-08 10:19 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 2.27I 44.05%NM 41.04%EV -6.98%E -3.07%K -5.49%G +0.000% | 1.58I 63.29%NM 58.96%EV -6.75%E -4.27%K -11.63%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-05-09 06:29 |
| Betway🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -7.80%E -3.46%K -6.24%G +0.000% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -2.62%E -1.59%K -4.03%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-09 02:35 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.01%EV -7.80%E -3.46%K -6.24%G +0.000% | 1.63I 61.35%NM 57.99%EV -3.80%E -2.33%K -6.03%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-05-09 05:45 |
| Caesars🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.86%EV -7.80%E -3.46%K -6.24%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%EV -4.39%E -2.71%K -7.08%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-05-09 07:54 |
| TAB🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.56%EV -7.80%E -3.46%K -6.24%G +0.000% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 58.44%EV -5.57%E -3.48%K -9.28%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-05-09 02:33 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.56%EV -7.80%E -3.46%K -6.24%G +0.000% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 58.44%EV -5.57%E -3.48%K -9.28%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-05-08 10:19 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.56%EV -7.80%E -3.46%K -6.24%G +0.000% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 58.44%EV -5.57%E -3.48%K -9.28%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-05-08 10:20 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.25%EV -7.80%E -3.46%K -6.24%G +0.000% | 1.58I 63.29%NM 58.75%EV -6.75%E -4.27%K -11.63%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-05-08 20:50 |
| Neds🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.25%EV -7.80%E -3.46%K -6.24%G +0.000% | 1.58I 63.29%NM 58.75%EV -6.75%E -4.27%K -11.63%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-05-08 20:49 |
| Coral🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.10%EV -7.80%E -3.46%K -6.24%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 58.90%EV -7.34%E -4.67%K -12.87%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-05-08 20:49 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.10%EV -7.80%E -3.46%K -6.24%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 58.90%EV -7.34%E -4.67%K -12.87%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-05-08 20:50 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.10%EV -7.80%E -3.46%K -6.24%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 58.90%EV -7.34%E -4.67%K -12.87%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-05-09 08:54 |
| Everygame🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.11%EV -9.84%E -4.47%K -8.20%G +0.000% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 57.89%EV -5.57%E -3.48%K -9.28%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-05-09 05:44 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (6)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 2.38I 42.02%NM 41.81% | 1.71I 58.48%NM 58.19% | 0.5% | 2026-05-09 08:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 2.38I 42.02%NM 41.81% | 1.71I 58.48%NM 58.19% | 0.5% | 2026-05-09 08:54 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 2.38I 42.02%NM 41.81% | 1.71I 58.48%NM 58.19% | 0.5% | 2026-05-09 08:54 |
| Matchbook◎ | 2.38I 42.02%NM 41.81% | 1.71I 58.48%NM 58.19% | 0.5% | 2026-05-09 08:55 |
| Novig◎ | 2.46I 40.65%NM 40.44% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 59.56% | 0.5% | 2026-05-09 08:50 |
| Smarkets◎ | 2.36I 42.37%NM 41.58% | 1.68I 59.52%NM 58.42% | 1.9% | 2026-05-09 08:49 |