Language:English
Jack Draper v Daniil Medvedev
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Jack Draper (Local)
Prediction 33.81%2.96fair odd
EV +18.32%
Edge +5.23%
Kelly +7.33%
Growth +1.34%
assuming max odds 3.50
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.78%33.62%33.41%40.20%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.352.792.753.5042.55%35.78%36.36%28.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Daniil Medvedev (Visit)
Prediction 66.19%1.51fair odd
EV +5.91%
Edge +3.69%
Kelly +9.85%
Growth +0.582%
assuming max odds 1.60
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
59.80%66.38%66.59%73.22%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.281.441.431.6078.13%69.44%69.93%62.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Jack Draper (Local): 33.81%; Daniil Medvedev (Visit): 66.19%. For Jack Draper (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.96. 18 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.50, corresponding to a positive expected value of +18.32%.
Sportsbook Odds (61 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FanDuel🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.23%EV +18.32%E +5.23%K +7.33%G +1.34% | 1.31I 76.34%NM 72.77%EV -13.28%E -10.14%K -42.85%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-03-13 00:50 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.78%EV +18.32%E +5.23%K +7.33%G +1.34% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 73.22%EV -15.27%E -11.93%K -54.54%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-03-13 00:50 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.67%EV +16.63%E +4.82%K +6.79%G +1.13% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 72.33%EV -12.62%E -9.56%K -39.45%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-03-13 00:49 |
| Bovada🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 28.12%EV +14.94%E +4.39%K +6.22%G +0.930% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.88%EV -11.96%E -8.99%K -36.25%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-03-13 00:50 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.66%EV +14.94%E +4.39%K +6.22%G +0.930% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.34%EV -13.95%E -10.73%K -46.49%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-03-13 00:49 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.80%EV +13.25%E +3.95%K +5.64%G +0.747% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 72.20%EV -14.61%E -11.32%K -50.37%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-03-13 00:49 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.88%EV +11.56%E +3.50%K +5.02%G +0.581% | 1.34I 74.63%NM 71.12%EV -11.30%E -8.43%K -33.23%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-03-13 00:50 |
| Betway🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.73%EV +11.56%E +3.50%K +5.02%G +0.581% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.27%EV -11.96%E -8.99%K -36.25%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-03-13 00:49 |
| Caesars🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.42%EV +11.56%E +3.50%K +5.02%G +0.581% | 1.31I 76.34%NM 71.58%EV -13.28%E -10.14%K -42.85%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-03-13 00:49 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.52%EV +8.18%E +2.56%K +3.72%G +0.304% | 1.34I 74.63%NM 70.48%EV -11.30%E -8.43%K -33.23%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-03-13 00:50 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.36%EV +8.18%E +2.56%K +3.72%G +0.304% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 70.64%EV -11.96%E -8.99%K -36.25%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-03-13 00:50 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.36%EV +8.18%E +2.56%K +3.72%G +0.304% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 70.64%EV -11.96%E -8.99%K -36.25%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-03-13 00:50 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.36%EV +8.18%E +2.56%K +3.72%G +0.304% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 70.64%EV -11.96%E -8.99%K -36.25%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-03-13 00:50 |
| Unibet🎯 | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.16%EV +6.49%E +2.06%K +3.02%G +0.196% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.84%EV -9.98%E -7.33%K -27.71%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-13 00:49 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.21%EV +6.49%E +2.06%K +3.02%G +0.196% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 70.79%EV -13.95%E -10.73%K -46.49%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-03-13 00:50 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.02%EV +4.80%E +1.55%K +2.28%G +0.110% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 69.98%EV -11.96%E -8.99%K -36.25%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-03-13 00:49 |
| TAB🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV +1.42%E +0.472%K +0.708%G +0.010% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -9.98%E -7.33%K -27.71%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-03-13 00:50 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.03%EV +1.42%E +0.472%K +0.708%G +0.010% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 68.97%EV -10.64%E -7.88%K -30.39%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-03-13 00:49 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.18%EV -0.275%E -0.093%K -0.141%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.82%EV -7.33%E -5.23%K -18.32%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-13 00:50 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 2.94I 34.01%NM 32.57%EV -0.613%E -0.208%K -0.316%G +0.000% | 1.42I 70.42%NM 67.43%EV -6.00%E -4.23%K -14.29%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-03-13 00:50 |
| Betsson🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -1.96%E -0.678%K -1.03%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -7.33%E -5.23%K -18.32%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-03-13 00:50 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 2.88I 34.72%NM 32.08%EV -2.64%E -0.917%K -1.40%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 67.92%EV -9.98%E -7.33%K -27.71%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-03-13 00:50 |
| Coral🎯 | 2.87I 34.84%NM 32.15%EV -2.98%E -1.04%K -1.59%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 67.85%EV -9.98%E -7.33%K -27.71%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-03-13 00:50 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.41%EV -3.66%E -1.28%K -1.98%G +0.000% | 1.43I 69.93%NM 66.59%EV -5.34%E -3.74%K -12.42%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-03-13 00:50 |
| Casumo🎯 | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.41%EV -3.66%E -1.28%K -1.98%G +0.000% | 1.43I 69.93%NM 66.59%EV -5.34%E -3.74%K -12.42%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-03-13 00:50 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 2.85I 35.09%NM 32.94%EV -3.66%E -1.28%K -1.98%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.06%EV -7.33%E -5.23%K -18.32%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-03-13 00:48 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV -7.04%E -2.56%K -4.02%G +0.000% | 1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%EV -4.02%E -2.77%K -8.93%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-13 00:50 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.05%EV -7.04%E -2.56%K -4.02%G +0.000% | 1.42I 70.42%NM 65.95%EV -6.00%E -4.23%K -14.29%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-03-13 00:50 |
| 888sport🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%EV -7.04%E -2.56%K -4.02%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 66.27%EV -7.33%E -5.23%K -18.32%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-03-13 00:50 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%EV -7.04%E -2.56%K -4.02%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 66.27%EV -7.33%E -5.23%K -18.32%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-03-13 00:50 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.41%EV -7.04%E -2.56%K -4.02%G +0.000% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 66.59%EV -8.65%E -6.27%K -22.77%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-03-13 00:50 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 35.41%EV -8.73%E -3.23%K -5.13%G +0.000% | 1.48I 67.57%NM 64.59%EV -2.03%E -1.37%K -4.23%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-03-13 00:45 |
| betPARX🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 35.25%EV -8.73%E -3.23%K -5.13%G +0.000% | 1.47I 68.03%NM 64.75%EV -2.69%E -1.83%K -5.73%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-03-13 00:45 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.15%EV -8.73%E -3.23%K -5.13%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 65.85%EV -7.33%E -5.23%K -18.32%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-03-13 00:48 |
| William Hill🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -12.11%E -4.66%K -7.57%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -0.708%E -0.472%K -1.42%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-03-13 00:10 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 2.58I 38.76%NM 36.92%EV -12.78%E -4.95%K -8.09%G +0.000% | 1.51I 66.23%NM 63.08%EV -0.046%E -0.030%K -0.090%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-03-13 00:10 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.50%EV -13.80%E -5.41%K -8.90%G +0.000% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.50%EV +1.28%E +0.835%K +2.41%G +0.031% | 4.6% | 2026-03-13 00:10 |
| Fliff🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 35.93%EV -13.80%E -5.41%K -8.90%G +0.000% | 1.43I 69.93%NM 64.07%EV -5.34%E -3.74%K -12.42%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-03-13 00:45 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 2.52I 39.68%NM 38.83%EV -14.81%E -5.88%K -9.74%G +0.000% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 61.17%EV +5.91%E +3.69%K +9.85%G +0.582% | 2.2% | 2026-03-13 00:40 |
| GTbets🎯 | 2.52I 39.68%NM 38.08%EV -14.81%E -5.88%K -9.74%G +0.000% | 1.55I 64.52%NM 61.92%EV +2.60%E +1.68%K +4.73%G +0.123% | 4.2% | 2026-03-13 00:09 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 2.52I 39.68%NM 37.78%EV -14.81%E -5.88%K -9.74%G +0.000% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.22%EV +1.28%E +0.835%K +2.41%G +0.031% | 5.0% | 2026-03-13 00:39 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 2.51I 39.84%NM 38.02%EV -15.15%E -6.04%K -10.03%G +0.000% | 1.54I 64.94%NM 61.98%EV +1.94%E +1.26%K +3.59%G +0.070% | 4.8% | 2026-03-13 00:39 |
| BetUS🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 38.42%EV -15.49%E -6.19%K -10.32%G +0.000% | 1.56I 64.10%NM 61.58%EV +3.26%E +2.09%K +5.83%G +0.190% | 4.1% | 2026-03-13 00:03 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -15.49%E -6.19%K -10.32%G +0.000% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV +1.28%E +0.835%K +2.41%G +0.031% | 5.4% | 2026-03-13 00:44 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -15.49%E -6.19%K -10.32%G +0.000% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV +1.28%E +0.835%K +2.41%G +0.031% | 5.4% | 2026-03-13 00:44 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.66%EV -15.49%E -6.19%K -10.32%G +0.000% | 1.51I 66.23%NM 62.34%EV -0.046%E -0.030%K -0.090%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-03-13 00:43 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -15.49%E -6.19%K -10.32%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -0.708%E -0.472%K -1.42%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-03-13 00:45 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 2.49I 40.16%NM 38.97%EV -15.82%E -6.36%K -10.62%G +0.000% | 1.59I 62.89%NM 61.03%EV +5.25%E +3.30%K +8.90%G +0.467% | 3.1% | 2026-03-13 00:44 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 2.49I 40.16%NM 38.97%EV -15.82%E -6.36%K -10.62%G +0.000% | 1.59I 62.89%NM 61.03%EV +5.25%E +3.30%K +8.90%G +0.467% | 3.1% | 2026-03-13 00:44 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 2.48I 40.32%NM 38.31%EV -16.16%E -6.52%K -10.92%G +0.000% | 1.54I 64.94%NM 61.69%EV +1.94%E +1.26%K +3.59%G +0.070% | 5.3% | 2026-03-13 00:39 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 2.47I 40.49%NM 38.40%EV -16.50%E -6.68%K -11.23%G +0.000% | 1.54I 64.94%NM 61.60%EV +1.94%E +1.26%K +3.59%G +0.070% | 5.4% | 2026-03-13 00:34 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 2.47I 40.49%NM 38.25%EV -16.50%E -6.68%K -11.23%G +0.000% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 61.75%EV +1.28%E +0.835%K +2.41%G +0.031% | 5.8% | 2026-03-13 00:10 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.13%EV -17.18%E -7.01%K -11.85%G +0.000% | 1.51I 66.23%NM 61.87%EV -0.046%E -0.030%K -0.090%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-03-13 00:10 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 37.18%EV -17.18%E -7.01%K -11.85%G +0.000% | 1.45I 68.97%NM 62.82%EV -4.02%E -2.77%K -8.93%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-03-13 00:48 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.55%EV -18.87%E -7.86%K -13.48%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.45%EV +3.93%E +2.50%K +6.89%G +0.270% | 5.4% | 2026-03-13 00:44 |
| Everygame🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.24%EV -18.87%E -7.86%K -13.48%G +0.000% | 1.55I 64.52%NM 60.76%EV +2.60%E +1.68%K +4.73%G +0.123% | 6.2% | 2026-03-13 00:34 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.78%EV -18.87%E -7.86%K -13.48%G +0.000% | 1.52I 65.79%NM 61.22%EV +0.616%E +0.405%K +1.18%G +0.007% | 7.5% | 2026-03-13 00:10 |
| Neds🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.78%EV -18.87%E -7.86%K -13.48%G +0.000% | 1.52I 65.79%NM 61.22%EV +0.616%E +0.405%K +1.18%G +0.007% | 7.5% | 2026-03-13 00:09 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.13%EV -19.54%E -8.21%K -14.16%G +0.000% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 60.87%EV +1.28%E +0.835%K +2.41%G +0.031% | 7.4% | 2026-03-13 00:45 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.20%EV -20.56%E -8.75%K -15.23%G +0.000% | 1.58I 63.29%NM 59.80%EV +4.59%E +2.90%K +7.91%G +0.363% | 5.8% | 2026-03-13 00:43 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.05%EV -20.56%E -8.75%K -15.23%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 59.95%EV +3.93%E +2.50%K +6.89%G +0.270% | 6.2% | 2026-03-13 00:40 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (6)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 2.68I 37.31%NM 37.24% | 1.59I 62.89%NM 62.76% | 0.2% | 2026-03-13 00:50 |
| Smarkets◎ | 2.46I 40.65%NM 40.44% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 59.56% | 0.5% | 2026-03-13 00:45 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 2.92I 34.25%NM 33.94% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 66.06% | 0.9% | 2026-03-13 00:50 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 2.58I 38.76%NM 38.13% | 1.59I 62.89%NM 61.87% | 1.7% | 2026-03-13 00:50 |
| Novig◎ | 2.56I 39.06%NM 36.79% | 1.49I 67.11%NM 63.21% | 6.2% | 2026-03-13 00:45 |
| Matchbook◎ | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.53% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 70.47% | 7.5% | 2026-03-13 00:50 |