Language:English
Francesco Maestrelli v Rinky Hijikata
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Francesco Maestrelli (Local)
Prediction 46.66%2.14fair odd
EV +5.93%
Edge +2.61%
Kelly +4.67%
Growth +0.276%
assuming max odds 2.27
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
42.39%46.86%45.78%51.59%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.832.062.102.2754.64%48.46%47.62%44.05%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Rinky Hijikata (Visit)
Prediction 53.34%1.87fair odd
EV +4.01%
Edge +2.05%
Kelly +4.22%
Growth +0.169%
assuming max odds 1.95
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
48.41%53.14%54.22%57.61%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.621.741.731.9561.73%57.33%57.80%51.28%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Francesco Maestrelli (Local): 46.66%; Rinky Hijikata (Visit): 53.34%. For Francesco Maestrelli (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.14. 14 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.27, corresponding to a positive expected value of +5.93%.
Sportsbook Odds (59 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 2.27I 44.05%NM 42.39%EV +5.93%E +2.61%K +4.67%G +0.276% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 57.61%EV -10.93%E -6.54%K -16.31%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-03-06 02:43 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 2.24I 44.64%NM 43.29%EV +4.53%E +2.02%K +3.65%G +0.165% | 1.71I 58.48%NM 56.71%EV -8.79%E -5.14%K -12.39%G +0.000% | 3.1% | 2026-03-06 02:45 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 2.24I 44.64%NM 43.00%EV +4.53%E +2.02%K +3.65%G +0.165% | 1.69I 59.17%NM 57.00%EV -9.86%E -5.83%K -14.29%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-03-06 02:43 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 2.24I 44.64%NM 43.00%EV +4.53%E +2.02%K +3.65%G +0.165% | 1.69I 59.17%NM 57.00%EV -9.86%E -5.83%K -14.29%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-03-06 02:43 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 2.21I 45.25%NM 42.89%EV +3.13%E +1.41%K +2.58%G +0.081% | 1.66I 60.24%NM 57.11%EV -11.46%E -6.90%K -17.36%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-03-06 02:32 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.44%EV +2.66%E +1.21%K +2.22%G +0.059% | 1.69I 59.17%NM 56.56%EV -9.86%E -5.83%K -14.29%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-03-06 02:41 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.86%EV +2.66%E +1.21%K +2.22%G +0.059% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.14%EV -11.99%E -7.27%K -18.45%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-03-06 02:37 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 2.18I 45.87%NM 43.52%EV +1.73%E +0.792%K +1.46%G +0.025% | 1.68I 59.52%NM 56.48%EV -10.39%E -6.19%K -15.29%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-03-06 02:38 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 2.17I 46.08%NM 43.49%EV +1.26%E +0.580%K +1.08%G +0.014% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.51%EV -10.93%E -6.54%K -16.31%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-03-06 02:38 |
| Bovada🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.30%EV +0.326%E +0.152%K +0.283%G +0.001% | 1.71I 58.48%NM 55.70%EV -8.79%E -5.14%K -12.39%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-03-06 02:36 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.01%EV +0.326%E +0.152%K +0.283%G +0.001% | 1.69I 59.17%NM 55.99%EV -9.86%E -5.83%K -14.29%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-03-06 02:44 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.72%EV +0.326%E +0.152%K +0.283%G +0.001% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.28%EV -10.93%E -6.54%K -16.31%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-03-06 02:38 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.42%EV +0.326%E +0.152%K +0.283%G +0.001% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 56.58%EV -11.99%E -7.27%K -18.45%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-03-06 02:37 |
| Neds🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.42%EV +0.326%E +0.152%K +0.283%G +0.001% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 56.58%EV -11.99%E -7.27%K -18.45%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-03-06 02:37 |
| GTbets🎯 | 2.14I 46.73%NM 44.56%EV -0.141%E -0.066%K -0.124%G +0.000% | 1.72I 58.14%NM 55.44%EV -8.26%E -4.80%K -11.47%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-03-06 02:37 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 2.14I 46.73%NM 44.42%EV -0.141%E -0.066%K -0.124%G +0.000% | 1.71I 58.48%NM 55.58%EV -8.79%E -5.14%K -12.39%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-03-06 02:41 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.45%EV -2.01%E -0.956%K -1.82%G +0.000% | 1.75I 57.14%NM 54.55%EV -6.66%E -3.81%K -8.88%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-03-06 02:45 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.31%EV -2.01%E -0.956%K -1.82%G +0.000% | 1.74I 57.47%NM 54.69%EV -7.19%E -4.13%K -9.72%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-03-06 02:40 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -2.01%E -0.956%K -1.82%G +0.000% | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -7.73%E -4.47%K -10.59%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-03-06 02:41 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -2.01%E -0.956%K -1.82%G +0.000% | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -7.73%E -4.47%K -10.59%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-03-06 02:41 |
| Casumo🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -2.01%E -0.956%K -1.82%G +0.000% | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -7.73%E -4.47%K -10.59%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-03-06 02:41 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -2.01%E -0.956%K -1.82%G +0.000% | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -7.73%E -4.47%K -10.59%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-03-06 02:41 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -2.01%E -0.956%K -1.82%G +0.000% | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -7.73%E -4.47%K -10.59%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-03-06 02:41 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -2.01%E -0.956%K -1.82%G +0.000% | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -7.73%E -4.47%K -10.59%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-03-06 02:41 |
| Unibet🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -2.01%E -0.956%K -1.82%G +0.000% | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -7.73%E -4.47%K -10.59%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-03-06 02:42 |
| William Hill🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -2.01%E -0.956%K -1.82%G +0.000% | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -7.73%E -4.47%K -10.59%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-03-06 02:37 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -2.01%E -0.956%K -1.82%G +0.000% | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -7.73%E -4.47%K -10.59%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-03-06 02:41 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -2.01%E -0.956%K -1.82%G +0.000% | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -7.73%E -4.47%K -10.59%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-03-06 02:41 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.88%EV -2.01%E -0.956%K -1.82%G +0.000% | 1.71I 58.48%NM 55.12%EV -8.79%E -5.14%K -12.39%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-03-06 02:45 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.74%EV -2.01%E -0.956%K -1.82%G +0.000% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.26%EV -9.33%E -5.49%K -13.32%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-03-06 02:45 |
| Everygame🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.74%EV -2.01%E -0.956%K -1.82%G +0.000% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.26%EV -9.33%E -5.49%K -13.32%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-03-06 02:34 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.30%EV -2.01%E -0.956%K -1.82%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 55.70%EV -10.93%E -6.54%K -16.31%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-03-06 02:45 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.30%EV -2.01%E -0.956%K -1.82%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 55.70%EV -10.93%E -6.54%K -16.31%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-03-06 02:45 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 2.06I 48.54%NM 45.36%EV -3.87%E -1.88%K -3.65%G +0.000% | 1.71I 58.48%NM 54.64%EV -8.79%E -5.14%K -12.39%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-03-06 02:41 |
| Caesars🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.91%EV -4.34%E -2.12%K -4.13%G +0.000% | 1.74I 57.47%NM 54.09%EV -7.19%E -4.13%K -9.72%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-03-06 02:44 |
| BetUS🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.91%EV -4.34%E -2.12%K -4.13%G +0.000% | 1.74I 57.47%NM 54.09%EV -7.19%E -4.13%K -9.72%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-03-06 02:39 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.77%EV -4.34%E -2.12%K -4.13%G +0.000% | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.23%EV -7.73%E -4.47%K -10.59%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-03-06 02:45 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.33%EV -4.34%E -2.12%K -4.13%G +0.000% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 54.67%EV -9.33%E -5.49%K -13.32%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-03-06 02:45 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 44.14%EV -4.34%E -2.12%K -4.13%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 55.86%EV -13.59%E -8.39%K -21.93%G +0.000% | 10.5% | 2026-03-06 02:44 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 2.04I 49.02%NM 46.60%EV -4.81%E -2.36%K -4.62%G +0.000% | 1.78I 56.18%NM 53.40%EV -5.06%E -2.84%K -6.49%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-03-06 02:45 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 2.04I 49.02%NM 46.60%EV -4.81%E -2.36%K -4.62%G +0.000% | 1.78I 56.18%NM 53.40%EV -5.06%E -2.84%K -6.49%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-03-06 02:45 |
| betPARX🎯 | 2.04I 49.02%NM 46.60%EV -4.81%E -2.36%K -4.62%G +0.000% | 1.78I 56.18%NM 53.40%EV -5.06%E -2.84%K -6.49%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-03-06 02:45 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 2.02I 49.50%NM 46.56%EV -5.74%E -2.84%K -5.63%G +0.000% | 1.76I 56.82%NM 53.44%EV -6.13%E -3.48%K -8.06%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-03-06 02:45 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 2.02I 49.50%NM 46.42%EV -5.74%E -2.84%K -5.63%G +0.000% | 1.75I 57.14%NM 53.58%EV -6.66%E -3.81%K -8.88%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-03-06 02:45 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -6.67%E -3.34%K -6.67%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -3.99%E -2.22%K -4.99%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-03-06 02:45 |
| Coral🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.67%EV -6.67%E -3.34%K -6.67%G +0.000% | 1.75I 57.14%NM 53.33%EV -6.66%E -3.81%K -8.88%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-03-06 02:45 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.38%EV -6.67%E -3.34%K -6.67%G +0.000% | 1.73I 57.80%NM 53.62%EV -7.73%E -4.47%K -10.59%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-03-06 02:45 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 45.65%EV -6.67%E -3.34%K -6.67%G +0.000% | 1.68I 59.52%NM 54.35%EV -10.39%E -6.19%K -15.29%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-03-06 02:45 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.96I 51.02%NM 48.56%EV -8.54%E -4.36%K -8.90%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 51.44%EV -1.33%E -0.717%K -1.56%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-03-06 02:45 |
| Fliff🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 48.10%EV -10.87%E -5.69%K -11.95%G +0.000% | 1.77I 56.50%NM 51.90%EV -5.59%E -3.16%K -7.26%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-03-06 02:45 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.90I 52.63%NM 50.00%EV -11.34%E -5.97%K -12.60%G +0.000% | 1.90I 52.63%NM 50.00%EV +1.34%E +0.705%K +1.49%G +0.020% | 5.3% | 2026-03-06 02:45 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.90I 52.63%NM 49.33%EV -11.34%E -5.97%K -12.60%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 50.67%EV -1.33%E -0.717%K -1.56%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-03-06 02:45 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.87I 53.48%NM 50.00%EV -12.74%E -6.81%K -14.64%G +0.000% | 1.87I 53.48%NM 50.00%EV -0.260%E -0.139%K -0.299%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-03-06 02:45 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 51.32%EV -13.67%E -7.39%K -16.09%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.68%EV +4.01%E +2.05%K +4.22%G +0.169% | 5.3% | 2026-03-06 02:45 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 50.80%EV -13.67%E -7.39%K -16.09%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 49.20%EV +1.87%E +0.981%K +2.06%G +0.039% | 6.4% | 2026-03-06 02:45 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 50.67%EV -13.67%E -7.39%K -16.09%G +0.000% | 1.90I 52.63%NM 49.33%EV +1.34%E +0.705%K +1.49%G +0.020% | 6.7% | 2026-03-06 02:45 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 50.00%EV -13.67%E -7.39%K -16.09%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 50.00%EV -1.33%E -0.717%K -1.56%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-03-06 02:45 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 51.59%EV -14.61%E -7.98%K -17.60%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.41%EV +4.01%E +2.05%K +4.22%G +0.169% | 5.9% | 2026-03-06 02:45 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 51.07%EV -14.61%E -7.98%K -17.60%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 48.93%EV +1.87%E +0.981%K +2.06%G +0.039% | 7.0% | 2026-03-06 02:45 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (6)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matchbook◎ | 2.22I 45.05%NM 44.64% | 1.79I 55.87%NM 55.36% | 0.9% | 2026-03-06 02:45 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 2.34I 42.74%NM 41.94% | 1.69I 59.17%NM 58.06% | 1.9% | 2026-03-06 02:45 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 2.34I 42.74%NM 41.94% | 1.69I 59.17%NM 58.06% | 1.9% | 2026-03-06 02:45 |
| Smarkets◎ | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22% | 4.6% | 2026-03-06 02:45 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 2.26I 44.25%NM 42.05% | 1.64I 60.98%NM 57.95% | 5.2% | 2026-03-06 02:45 |
| Novig◎ | 1.97I 50.76%NM 47.61% | 1.79I 55.87%NM 52.39% | 6.6% | 2026-03-06 02:45 |