Language:English
Carlos Alcaraz v Cameron Norrie
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Carlos Alcaraz (Local)
Prediction 91.89%1.09fair odd
EV -2.59%
Edge -2.45%
Kelly -43.20%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.06
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
89.10%91.82%92.02%93.63%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.011.041.041.0699.01%96.37%96.15%94.34%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Cameron Norrie (Visit)
Prediction 8.11%12.34fair odd
EV +24.10%
Edge +1.57%
Kelly +1.68%
Growth +0.406%
assuming max odds 15.31
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
6.37%8.18%7.98%10.90%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
8.5011.7712.0015.3111.76%8.49%8.33%6.53%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Carlos Alcaraz (Local): 91.89%; Cameron Norrie (Visit): 8.11%. For Cameron Norrie (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 12.34. 14 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 15.31, corresponding to a positive expected value of +24.10%.
Sportsbook Odds (60 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.05I 95.24%NM 93.58%EV -3.51%E -3.34%K -70.22%G +0.000% | 15.31I 6.53%NM 6.42%EV +24.10%E +1.57%K +1.68%G +0.406% | 1.8% | 2026-03-13 01:40 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.02I 98.04%NM 93.63%EV -6.27%E -6.14%K -313.39%G +0.000% | 15.00I 6.67%NM 6.37%EV +21.59%E +1.44%K +1.54%G +0.333% | 4.7% | 2026-03-12 19:19 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.04I 96.15%NM 93.31%EV -4.43%E -4.26%K -110.75%G +0.000% | 14.50I 6.90%NM 6.69%EV +17.53%E +1.21%K +1.30%G +0.228% | 3.1% | 2026-03-13 01:48 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.03I 97.09%NM 93.37%EV -5.35%E -5.19%K -178.30%G +0.000% | 14.50I 6.90%NM 6.63%EV +17.53%E +1.21%K +1.30%G +0.228% | 4.0% | 2026-03-12 21:55 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.03I 97.09%NM 93.24%EV -5.35%E -5.19%K -178.30%G +0.000% | 14.20I 7.04%NM 6.76%EV +15.10%E +1.06%K +1.14%G +0.173% | 4.1% | 2026-03-12 22:00 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.04I 96.15%NM 93.09%EV -4.43%E -4.26%K -110.75%G +0.000% | 14.00I 7.14%NM 6.91%EV +13.48%E +0.963%K +1.04%G +0.140% | 3.3% | 2026-03-13 01:50 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.04I 96.15%NM 92.85%EV -4.43%E -4.26%K -110.75%G +0.000% | 13.50I 7.41%NM 7.15%EV +9.43%E +0.698%K +0.754%G +0.071% | 3.6% | 2026-03-12 21:50 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.04I 96.15%NM 92.85%EV -4.43%E -4.26%K -110.75%G +0.000% | 13.50I 7.41%NM 7.15%EV +9.43%E +0.698%K +0.754%G +0.071% | 3.6% | 2026-03-12 21:49 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.05I 95.24%NM 92.53%EV -3.51%E -3.34%K -70.22%G +0.000% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.47%EV +5.37%E +0.413%K +0.448%G +0.024% | 2.9% | 2026-03-12 21:30 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.03I 97.09%NM 92.66%EV -5.35%E -5.19%K -178.30%G +0.000% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.34%EV +5.37%E +0.413%K +0.448%G +0.024% | 4.8% | 2026-03-13 01:49 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.03I 97.09%NM 92.66%EV -5.35%E -5.19%K -178.30%G +0.000% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.34%EV +5.37%E +0.413%K +0.448%G +0.024% | 4.8% | 2026-03-12 21:55 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 1.01I 99.01%NM 92.79%EV -7.19%E -7.12%K -718.68%G +0.000% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.21%EV +5.37%E +0.413%K +0.448%G +0.024% | 6.7% | 2026-03-12 21:34 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.03I 97.09%NM 92.39%EV -5.35%E -5.19%K -178.30%G +0.000% | 12.50I 8.00%NM 7.61%EV +1.32%E +0.106%K +0.115%G +0.002% | 5.1% | 2026-03-13 01:49 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.06I 94.34%NM 92.12%EV -2.59%E -2.45%K -43.20%G +0.000% | 12.40I 8.06%NM 7.88%EV +0.511%E +0.041%K +0.045%G +0.000% | 2.4% | 2026-03-13 01:50 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.04I 96.15%NM 92.02%EV -4.43%E -4.26%K -110.75%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.98%EV -2.73%E -0.228%K -0.248%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-03-12 14:31 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.04I 96.15%NM 92.02%EV -4.43%E -4.26%K -110.75%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.98%EV -2.73%E -0.228%K -0.248%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-03-12 14:31 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.04I 96.15%NM 92.02%EV -4.43%E -4.26%K -110.75%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.98%EV -2.73%E -0.228%K -0.248%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-03-12 14:11 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.04I 96.15%NM 92.02%EV -4.43%E -4.26%K -110.75%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.98%EV -2.73%E -0.228%K -0.248%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-03-12 14:30 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.04I 96.15%NM 92.02%EV -4.43%E -4.26%K -110.75%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.98%EV -2.73%E -0.228%K -0.248%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-03-12 14:30 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.04I 96.15%NM 92.02%EV -4.43%E -4.26%K -110.75%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.98%EV -2.73%E -0.228%K -0.248%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-03-12 14:11 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.04I 96.15%NM 92.02%EV -4.43%E -4.26%K -110.75%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.98%EV -2.73%E -0.228%K -0.248%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-03-12 14:30 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.04I 96.15%NM 92.02%EV -4.43%E -4.26%K -110.75%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.98%EV -2.73%E -0.228%K -0.248%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-03-12 14:30 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.04I 96.15%NM 92.02%EV -4.43%E -4.26%K -110.75%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.98%EV -2.73%E -0.228%K -0.248%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-03-12 14:30 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.04I 96.15%NM 92.02%EV -4.43%E -4.26%K -110.75%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.98%EV -2.73%E -0.228%K -0.248%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-03-12 14:11 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.04I 96.15%NM 92.02%EV -4.43%E -4.26%K -110.75%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.98%EV -2.73%E -0.228%K -0.248%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-03-12 14:30 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.04I 96.15%NM 92.02%EV -4.43%E -4.26%K -110.75%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.98%EV -2.73%E -0.228%K -0.248%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-03-12 14:30 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.04I 96.15%NM 92.02%EV -4.43%E -4.26%K -110.75%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.98%EV -2.73%E -0.228%K -0.248%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-03-12 14:11 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.04I 96.15%NM 92.02%EV -4.43%E -4.26%K -110.75%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.98%EV -2.73%E -0.228%K -0.248%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-03-12 14:31 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.04I 96.15%NM 92.02%EV -4.43%E -4.26%K -110.75%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.98%EV -2.73%E -0.228%K -0.248%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-03-12 14:11 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.03I 97.09%NM 92.10%EV -5.35%E -5.19%K -178.30%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.90%EV -2.73%E -0.228%K -0.248%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-03-12 07:25 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.03I 97.09%NM 92.10%EV -5.35%E -5.19%K -178.30%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.90%EV -2.73%E -0.228%K -0.248%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-03-12 23:50 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.02I 98.04%NM 92.17%EV -6.27%E -6.14%K -313.39%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.83%EV -2.73%E -0.228%K -0.248%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-03-12 19:55 |
| GTbets🎯 | 1.04I 96.15%NM 91.83%EV -4.43%E -4.26%K -110.75%G +0.000% | 11.69I 8.55%NM 8.17%EV -5.24%E -0.449%K -0.491%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-03-12 20:05 |
| Fliff🎯 | 1.02I 98.04%NM 91.92%EV -6.27%E -6.14%K -313.39%G +0.000% | 11.60I 8.62%NM 8.08%EV -5.97%E -0.515%K -0.564%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-03-13 01:50 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.04I 96.15%NM 91.71%EV -4.43%E -4.26%K -110.75%G +0.000% | 11.50I 8.70%NM 8.29%EV -6.78%E -0.590%K -0.646%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-03-12 20:05 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.03I 97.09%NM 91.78%EV -5.35%E -5.19%K -178.30%G +0.000% | 11.50I 8.70%NM 8.22%EV -6.78%E -0.590%K -0.646%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-03-13 01:30 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.05I 95.24%NM 91.29%EV -3.51%E -3.34%K -70.22%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.71%EV -10.84%E -0.985%K -1.08%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-03-13 01:50 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.05I 95.24%NM 91.29%EV -3.51%E -3.34%K -70.22%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.71%EV -10.84%E -0.985%K -1.08%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-03-12 00:44 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.05I 95.24%NM 91.29%EV -3.51%E -3.34%K -70.22%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.71%EV -10.84%E -0.985%K -1.08%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-03-12 00:44 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.05I 95.24%NM 91.29%EV -3.51%E -3.34%K -70.22%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.71%EV -10.84%E -0.985%K -1.08%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-03-12 22:09 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.04I 96.15%NM 91.36%EV -4.43%E -4.26%K -110.75%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.64%EV -10.84%E -0.985%K -1.08%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-03-12 20:05 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.04I 96.15%NM 91.36%EV -4.43%E -4.26%K -110.75%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.64%EV -10.84%E -0.985%K -1.08%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-03-12 20:05 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.04I 96.15%NM 91.36%EV -4.43%E -4.26%K -110.75%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.64%EV -10.84%E -0.985%K -1.08%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-03-12 21:55 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.04I 96.15%NM 91.36%EV -4.43%E -4.26%K -110.75%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.64%EV -10.84%E -0.985%K -1.08%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-03-12 19:55 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.03I 97.09%NM 91.44%EV -5.35%E -5.19%K -178.30%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.56%EV -10.84%E -0.985%K -1.08%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-03-12 20:05 |
| Everygame🎯 | 1.03I 97.09%NM 91.44%EV -5.35%E -5.19%K -178.30%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.56%EV -10.84%E -0.985%K -1.08%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-03-12 07:40 |
| Caesars🎯 | 1.03I 97.09%NM 91.44%EV -5.35%E -5.19%K -178.30%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.56%EV -10.84%E -0.985%K -1.08%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-03-12 15:14 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.02I 98.04%NM 91.51%EV -6.27%E -6.14%K -313.39%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.49%EV -10.84%E -0.985%K -1.08%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-03-12 14:30 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.05I 95.24%NM 90.91%EV -3.51%E -3.34%K -70.22%G +0.000% | 10.50I 9.52%NM 9.09%EV -14.89%E -1.42%K -1.57%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-03-12 06:28 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.04I 96.15%NM 90.99%EV -4.43%E -4.26%K -110.75%G +0.000% | 10.50I 9.52%NM 9.01%EV -14.89%E -1.42%K -1.57%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-03-12 20:05 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.02I 98.04%NM 91.15%EV -6.27%E -6.14%K -313.39%G +0.000% | 10.50I 9.52%NM 8.85%EV -14.89%E -1.42%K -1.57%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-03-12 01:40 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.02I 98.04%NM 91.15%EV -6.27%E -6.14%K -313.39%G +0.000% | 10.50I 9.52%NM 8.85%EV -14.89%E -1.42%K -1.57%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-03-12 01:39 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.04I 96.15%NM 90.79%EV -4.43%E -4.26%K -110.75%G +0.000% | 10.25I 9.76%NM 9.21%EV -16.92%E -1.65%K -1.83%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-03-13 01:50 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.05I 95.24%NM 90.50%EV -3.51%E -3.34%K -70.22%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.50%EV -18.94%E -1.89%K -2.10%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-03-12 08:20 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.05I 95.24%NM 90.50%EV -3.51%E -3.34%K -70.22%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.50%EV -18.94%E -1.89%K -2.10%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-03-12 08:20 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.05I 95.24%NM 90.50%EV -3.51%E -3.34%K -70.22%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.50%EV -18.94%E -1.89%K -2.10%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-03-12 08:20 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.05I 95.24%NM 90.50%EV -3.51%E -3.34%K -70.22%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.50%EV -18.94%E -1.89%K -2.10%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-03-12 08:20 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 1.04I 96.15%NM 90.58%EV -4.43%E -4.26%K -110.75%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.42%EV -18.94%E -1.89%K -2.10%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-03-12 20:05 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.03I 97.09%NM 90.66%EV -5.35%E -5.19%K -178.30%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.34%EV -18.94%E -1.89%K -2.10%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-03-12 01:14 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.04I 96.15%NM 89.10%EV -4.43%E -4.26%K -110.75%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 10.90%EV -31.10%E -3.66%K -4.15%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-03-12 05:14 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (6)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.06I 94.34%NM 93.40% | 15.00I 6.67%NM 6.60% | 1.0% | 2026-03-13 01:45 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.06I 94.34%NM 93.40% | 15.00I 6.67%NM 6.60% | 1.0% | 2026-03-13 01:45 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.06I 94.34%NM 93.40% | 15.00I 6.67%NM 6.60% | 1.0% | 2026-03-13 01:45 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.06I 94.34%NM 93.40% | 15.00I 6.67%NM 6.60% | 1.0% | 2026-03-13 01:45 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.06I 94.34%NM 93.40% | 14.99I 6.67%NM 6.60% | 1.0% | 2026-03-13 01:30 |
| Novig◎ | 1.06I 94.34%NM 93.09% | 14.29I 7.00%NM 6.91% | 1.3% | 2026-03-13 01:25 |