La escuela de los momiosIdioma:Español
Carlos Alcaraz v Cameron Norrie
Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →
Resultado del partido
Carlos Alcaraz (Local)
Predicción 91.89%1.09momio equitativo
EV -2.59%
Ventaja -2.45%
Kelly -43.20%
Crecimiento +0.000%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.06
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
89.10%91.82%92.02%93.63%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
1.011.041.041.0699.01%96.37%96.15%94.34%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Cameron Norrie (Visitante)
Predicción 8.11%12.34momio equitativo
EV +24.10%
Ventaja +1.57%
Kelly +1.68%
Crecimiento +0.406%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 15.31
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
6.37%8.18%7.98%10.90%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
8.5011.7712.0015.3111.76%8.49%8.33%6.53%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Momios de las casas de apuestas (60 corredores)
No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.
| Corredor | Local | Visitante ▼ | Margen | Actualizado |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle | 1.05I 95.24%NM 93.58%EV -3.51%E -3.34%K -70.22%G +0.000% | 15.31I 6.53%NM 6.42%EV +24.10%E +1.57%K +1.68%G +0.406% | 1.8% | 2026-03-13 01:40 |
| Bovada | 1.02I 98.04%NM 93.63%EV -6.27%E -6.14%K -313.39%G +0.000% | 15.00I 6.67%NM 6.37%EV +21.59%E +1.44%K +1.54%G +0.333% | 4.7% | 2026-03-12 19:19 |
| Betclic (FR) | 1.04I 96.15%NM 93.31%EV -4.43%E -4.26%K -110.75%G +0.000% | 14.50I 6.90%NM 6.69%EV +17.53%E +1.21%K +1.30%G +0.228% | 3.1% | 2026-03-13 01:48 |
| Winamax (DE) | 1.03I 97.09%NM 93.37%EV -5.35%E -5.19%K -178.30%G +0.000% | 14.50I 6.90%NM 6.63%EV +17.53%E +1.21%K +1.30%G +0.228% | 4.0% | 2026-03-12 21:55 |
| Unibet (FR) | 1.03I 97.09%NM 93.24%EV -5.35%E -5.19%K -178.30%G +0.000% | 14.20I 7.04%NM 6.76%EV +15.10%E +1.06%K +1.14%G +0.173% | 4.1% | 2026-03-12 22:00 |
| Paddy Power | 1.04I 96.15%NM 93.09%EV -4.43%E -4.26%K -110.75%G +0.000% | 14.00I 7.14%NM 6.91%EV +13.48%E +0.963%K +1.04%G +0.140% | 3.3% | 2026-03-13 01:50 |
| LowVig.ag | 1.04I 96.15%NM 92.85%EV -4.43%E -4.26%K -110.75%G +0.000% | 13.50I 7.41%NM 7.15%EV +9.43%E +0.698%K +0.754%G +0.071% | 3.6% | 2026-03-12 21:50 |
| BetOnline.ag | 1.04I 96.15%NM 92.85%EV -4.43%E -4.26%K -110.75%G +0.000% | 13.50I 7.41%NM 7.15%EV +9.43%E +0.698%K +0.754%G +0.071% | 3.6% | 2026-03-12 21:49 |
| Coolbet | 1.05I 95.24%NM 92.53%EV -3.51%E -3.34%K -70.22%G +0.000% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.47%EV +5.37%E +0.413%K +0.448%G +0.024% | 2.9% | 2026-03-12 21:30 |
| FanDuel | 1.03I 97.09%NM 92.66%EV -5.35%E -5.19%K -178.30%G +0.000% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.34%EV +5.37%E +0.413%K +0.448%G +0.024% | 4.8% | 2026-03-13 01:49 |
| Winamax (FR) | 1.03I 97.09%NM 92.66%EV -5.35%E -5.19%K -178.30%G +0.000% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.34%EV +5.37%E +0.413%K +0.448%G +0.024% | 4.8% | 2026-03-12 21:55 |
| NetBet (FR) | 1.01I 99.01%NM 92.79%EV -7.19%E -7.12%K -718.68%G +0.000% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.21%EV +5.37%E +0.413%K +0.448%G +0.024% | 6.7% | 2026-03-12 21:34 |
| SportsBet | 1.03I 97.09%NM 92.39%EV -5.35%E -5.19%K -178.30%G +0.000% | 12.50I 8.00%NM 7.61%EV +1.32%E +0.106%K +0.115%G +0.002% | 5.1% | 2026-03-13 01:49 |
| DraftKings | 1.06I 94.34%NM 92.12%EV -2.59%E -2.45%K -43.20%G +0.000% | 12.40I 8.06%NM 7.88%EV +0.511%E +0.041%K +0.045%G +0.000% | 2.4% | 2026-03-13 01:50 |
| LeoVegas (SE) | 1.04I 96.15%NM 92.02%EV -4.43%E -4.26%K -110.75%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.98%EV -2.73%E -0.228%K -0.248%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-03-12 14:31 |
| Casumo | 1.04I 96.15%NM 92.02%EV -4.43%E -4.26%K -110.75%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.98%EV -2.73%E -0.228%K -0.248%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-03-12 14:31 |
| LiveScore Bet | 1.04I 96.15%NM 92.02%EV -4.43%E -4.26%K -110.75%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.98%EV -2.73%E -0.228%K -0.248%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-03-12 14:11 |
| Unibet (SE) | 1.04I 96.15%NM 92.02%EV -4.43%E -4.26%K -110.75%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.98%EV -2.73%E -0.228%K -0.248%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-03-12 14:30 |
| TABtouch | 1.04I 96.15%NM 92.02%EV -4.43%E -4.26%K -110.75%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.98%EV -2.73%E -0.228%K -0.248%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-03-12 14:30 |
| Unibet (NL) | 1.04I 96.15%NM 92.02%EV -4.43%E -4.26%K -110.75%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.98%EV -2.73%E -0.228%K -0.248%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-03-12 14:11 |
| Unibet | 1.04I 96.15%NM 92.02%EV -4.43%E -4.26%K -110.75%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.98%EV -2.73%E -0.228%K -0.248%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-03-12 14:30 |
| BetRivers | 1.04I 96.15%NM 92.02%EV -4.43%E -4.26%K -110.75%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.98%EV -2.73%E -0.228%K -0.248%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-03-12 14:30 |
| Grosvenor | 1.04I 96.15%NM 92.02%EV -4.43%E -4.26%K -110.75%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.98%EV -2.73%E -0.228%K -0.248%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-03-12 14:30 |
| LeoVegas | 1.04I 96.15%NM 92.02%EV -4.43%E -4.26%K -110.75%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.98%EV -2.73%E -0.228%K -0.248%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-03-12 14:11 |
| Bally Bet | 1.04I 96.15%NM 92.02%EV -4.43%E -4.26%K -110.75%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.98%EV -2.73%E -0.228%K -0.248%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-03-12 14:30 |
| Svenska Spel | 1.04I 96.15%NM 92.02%EV -4.43%E -4.26%K -110.75%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.98%EV -2.73%E -0.228%K -0.248%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-03-12 14:30 |
| ATG (SE) | 1.04I 96.15%NM 92.02%EV -4.43%E -4.26%K -110.75%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.98%EV -2.73%E -0.228%K -0.248%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-03-12 14:11 |
| betPARX | 1.04I 96.15%NM 92.02%EV -4.43%E -4.26%K -110.75%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.98%EV -2.73%E -0.228%K -0.248%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-03-12 14:31 |
| Hard Rock Bet | 1.04I 96.15%NM 92.02%EV -4.43%E -4.26%K -110.75%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.98%EV -2.73%E -0.228%K -0.248%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-03-12 14:11 |
| Betway | 1.03I 97.09%NM 92.10%EV -5.35%E -5.19%K -178.30%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.90%EV -2.73%E -0.228%K -0.248%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-03-12 07:25 |
| theScore Bet | 1.03I 97.09%NM 92.10%EV -5.35%E -5.19%K -178.30%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.90%EV -2.73%E -0.228%K -0.248%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-03-12 23:50 |
| Tipico (DE) | 1.02I 98.04%NM 92.17%EV -6.27%E -6.14%K -313.39%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.83%EV -2.73%E -0.228%K -0.248%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-03-12 19:55 |
| GTbets | 1.04I 96.15%NM 91.83%EV -4.43%E -4.26%K -110.75%G +0.000% | 11.69I 8.55%NM 8.17%EV -5.24%E -0.449%K -0.491%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-03-12 20:05 |
| Fliff | 1.02I 98.04%NM 91.92%EV -6.27%E -6.14%K -313.39%G +0.000% | 11.60I 8.62%NM 8.08%EV -5.97%E -0.515%K -0.564%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-03-13 01:50 |
| PointsBet (AU) | 1.04I 96.15%NM 91.71%EV -4.43%E -4.26%K -110.75%G +0.000% | 11.50I 8.70%NM 8.29%EV -6.78%E -0.590%K -0.646%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-03-12 20:05 |
| Marathon Bet | 1.03I 97.09%NM 91.78%EV -5.35%E -5.19%K -178.30%G +0.000% | 11.50I 8.70%NM 8.22%EV -6.78%E -0.590%K -0.646%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-03-13 01:30 |
| 1xBet | 1.05I 95.24%NM 91.29%EV -3.51%E -3.34%K -70.22%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.71%EV -10.84%E -0.985%K -1.08%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-03-13 01:50 |
| Coral | 1.05I 95.24%NM 91.29%EV -3.51%E -3.34%K -70.22%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.71%EV -10.84%E -0.985%K -1.08%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-03-12 00:44 |
| Ladbrokes (UK) | 1.05I 95.24%NM 91.29%EV -3.51%E -3.34%K -70.22%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.71%EV -10.84%E -0.985%K -1.08%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-03-12 00:44 |
| BoyleSports | 1.05I 95.24%NM 91.29%EV -3.51%E -3.34%K -70.22%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.71%EV -10.84%E -0.985%K -1.08%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-03-12 22:09 |
| NordicBet | 1.04I 96.15%NM 91.36%EV -4.43%E -4.26%K -110.75%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.64%EV -10.84%E -0.985%K -1.08%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-03-12 20:05 |
| Betsson | 1.04I 96.15%NM 91.36%EV -4.43%E -4.26%K -110.75%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.64%EV -10.84%E -0.985%K -1.08%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-03-12 20:05 |
| Unibet (UK) | 1.04I 96.15%NM 91.36%EV -4.43%E -4.26%K -110.75%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.64%EV -10.84%E -0.985%K -1.08%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-03-12 21:55 |
| Bet Right | 1.04I 96.15%NM 91.36%EV -4.43%E -4.26%K -110.75%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.64%EV -10.84%E -0.985%K -1.08%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-03-12 19:55 |
| PlayUp | 1.03I 97.09%NM 91.44%EV -5.35%E -5.19%K -178.30%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.56%EV -10.84%E -0.985%K -1.08%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-03-12 20:05 |
| Everygame | 1.03I 97.09%NM 91.44%EV -5.35%E -5.19%K -178.30%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.56%EV -10.84%E -0.985%K -1.08%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-03-12 07:40 |
| Caesars | 1.03I 97.09%NM 91.44%EV -5.35%E -5.19%K -178.30%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.56%EV -10.84%E -0.985%K -1.08%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-03-12 15:14 |
| Virgin Bet | 1.02I 98.04%NM 91.51%EV -6.27%E -6.14%K -313.39%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.49%EV -10.84%E -0.985%K -1.08%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-03-12 14:30 |
| BetMGM | 1.05I 95.24%NM 90.91%EV -3.51%E -3.34%K -70.22%G +0.000% | 10.50I 9.52%NM 9.09%EV -14.89%E -1.42%K -1.57%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-03-12 06:28 |
| Fanatics | 1.04I 96.15%NM 90.99%EV -4.43%E -4.26%K -110.75%G +0.000% | 10.50I 9.52%NM 9.01%EV -14.89%E -1.42%K -1.57%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-03-12 20:05 |
| Ladbrokes (AU) | 1.02I 98.04%NM 91.15%EV -6.27%E -6.14%K -313.39%G +0.000% | 10.50I 9.52%NM 8.85%EV -14.89%E -1.42%K -1.57%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-03-12 01:40 |
| Neds | 1.02I 98.04%NM 91.15%EV -6.27%E -6.14%K -313.39%G +0.000% | 10.50I 9.52%NM 8.85%EV -14.89%E -1.42%K -1.57%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-03-12 01:39 |
| Betr (AU) | 1.04I 96.15%NM 90.79%EV -4.43%E -4.26%K -110.75%G +0.000% | 10.25I 9.76%NM 9.21%EV -16.92%E -1.65%K -1.83%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-03-13 01:50 |
| William Hill | 1.05I 95.24%NM 90.50%EV -3.51%E -3.34%K -70.22%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.50%EV -18.94%E -1.89%K -2.10%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-03-12 08:20 |
| 888sport | 1.05I 95.24%NM 90.50%EV -3.51%E -3.34%K -70.22%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.50%EV -18.94%E -1.89%K -2.10%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-03-12 08:20 |
| 888sport (SE) | 1.05I 95.24%NM 90.50%EV -3.51%E -3.34%K -70.22%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.50%EV -18.94%E -1.89%K -2.10%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-03-12 08:20 |
| Mr Green (SE) | 1.05I 95.24%NM 90.50%EV -3.51%E -3.34%K -70.22%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.50%EV -18.94%E -1.89%K -2.10%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-03-12 08:20 |
| Codere (IT) | 1.04I 96.15%NM 90.58%EV -4.43%E -4.26%K -110.75%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.42%EV -18.94%E -1.89%K -2.10%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-03-12 20:05 |
| TAB | 1.03I 97.09%NM 90.66%EV -5.35%E -5.19%K -178.30%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.34%EV -18.94%E -1.89%K -2.10%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-03-12 01:14 |
| Bet Victor | 1.04I 96.15%NM 89.10%EV -4.43%E -4.26%K -110.75%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 10.90%EV -31.10%E -3.66%K -4.15%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-03-12 05:14 |
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas
Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.
Bolsas de apuestas (6)
| Corredor | Local | Visitante | Margen ▲ | Actualizado |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (EU) | 1.06I 94.34%NM 93.40% | 15.00I 6.67%NM 6.60% | 1.0% | 2026-03-13 01:45 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK) | 1.06I 94.34%NM 93.40% | 15.00I 6.67%NM 6.60% | 1.0% | 2026-03-13 01:45 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU) | 1.06I 94.34%NM 93.40% | 15.00I 6.67%NM 6.60% | 1.0% | 2026-03-13 01:45 |
| Matchbook | 1.06I 94.34%NM 93.40% | 15.00I 6.67%NM 6.60% | 1.0% | 2026-03-13 01:45 |
| Smarkets | 1.06I 94.34%NM 93.40% | 14.99I 6.67%NM 6.60% | 1.0% | 2026-03-13 01:30 |
| Novig | 1.06I 94.34%NM 93.09% | 14.29I 7.00%NM 6.91% | 1.3% | 2026-03-13 01:25 |