Language:English
Hugo Gaston v Karen Khachanov
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Hugo Gaston (Local)
Prediction 19.97%5.01fair odd
EV +5.66%
Edge +1.07%
Kelly +1.32%
Growth +0.075%
assuming max odds 5.29
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
18.36%20.02%19.90%22.08%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.204.694.705.2923.81%21.30%21.28%18.90%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Karen Khachanov (Visit)
Prediction 80.03%1.25fair odd
EV -3.97%
Edge -3.31%
Kelly -19.85%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.20
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
77.92%79.98%80.10%81.64%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.151.181.181.2086.96%84.56%84.75%83.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Hugo Gaston (Local): 19.97%; Karen Khachanov (Visit): 80.03%. For Hugo Gaston (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 5.01. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 5.29, corresponding to a positive expected value of +5.66%.
Sportsbook Odds (47 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle🎯 | 5.29I 18.90%NM 18.36%EV +5.66%E +1.07%K +1.32%G +0.075% | 1.19I 84.03%NM 81.64%EV -4.77%E -4.01%K -25.10%G +0.000% | 2.9% | 2026-05-19 12:59 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 5.10I 19.61%NM 18.92%EV +1.87%E +0.366%K +0.456%G +0.009% | 1.19I 84.03%NM 81.08%EV -4.77%E -4.01%K -25.10%G +0.000% | 3.6% | 2026-05-19 13:00 |
| Bovada🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.09%EV -0.128%E -0.026%K -0.032%G +0.000% | 1.18I 84.75%NM 80.91%EV -5.57%E -4.72%K -30.94%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-05-19 12:59 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV -0.128%E -0.026%K -0.032%G +0.000% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%EV -6.37%E -5.44%K -37.47%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-05-19 13:00 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 4.90I 20.41%NM 19.41%EV -2.13%E -0.434%K -0.545%G +0.000% | 1.18I 84.75%NM 80.59%EV -5.57%E -4.72%K -30.94%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-05-19 13:00 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 4.90I 20.41%NM 19.41%EV -2.13%E -0.434%K -0.545%G +0.000% | 1.18I 84.75%NM 80.59%EV -5.57%E -4.72%K -30.94%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-05-19 13:00 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 4.90I 20.41%NM 19.41%EV -2.13%E -0.434%K -0.545%G +0.000% | 1.18I 84.75%NM 80.59%EV -5.57%E -4.72%K -30.94%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-05-19 12:59 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 4.88I 20.49%NM 19.60%EV -2.53%E -0.517%K -0.651%G +0.000% | 1.19I 84.03%NM 80.40%EV -4.77%E -4.01%K -25.10%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-05-19 13:01 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 4.85I 20.62%NM 19.57%EV -3.12%E -0.644%K -0.812%G +0.000% | 1.18I 84.75%NM 80.43%EV -5.57%E -4.72%K -30.94%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-05-19 13:01 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 4.84I 20.66%NM 19.73%EV -3.32%E -0.687%K -0.866%G +0.000% | 1.19I 84.03%NM 80.27%EV -4.77%E -4.01%K -25.10%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-05-19 13:00 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.73%EV -4.12%E -0.859%K -1.09%G +0.000% | 1.18I 84.75%NM 80.27%EV -5.57%E -4.72%K -30.94%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-05-19 13:00 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.73%EV -4.12%E -0.859%K -1.09%G +0.000% | 1.18I 84.75%NM 80.27%EV -5.57%E -4.72%K -30.94%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-05-19 13:00 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.73%EV -4.12%E -0.859%K -1.09%G +0.000% | 1.18I 84.75%NM 80.27%EV -5.57%E -4.72%K -30.94%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-05-19 13:01 |
| Unibet🎯 | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.73%EV -4.12%E -0.859%K -1.09%G +0.000% | 1.18I 84.75%NM 80.27%EV -5.57%E -4.72%K -30.94%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-05-19 13:00 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.60%EV -4.12%E -0.859%K -1.09%G +0.000% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 80.40%EV -6.37%E -5.44%K -37.47%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-05-19 13:01 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.60%EV -4.12%E -0.859%K -1.09%G +0.000% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 80.40%EV -6.37%E -5.44%K -37.47%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-05-19 13:01 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 4.79I 20.88%NM 19.90%EV -4.32%E -0.903%K -1.14%G +0.000% | 1.19I 84.03%NM 80.10%EV -4.77%E -4.01%K -25.10%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-05-19 13:01 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 4.79I 20.88%NM 19.90%EV -4.32%E -0.903%K -1.14%G +0.000% | 1.19I 84.03%NM 80.10%EV -4.77%E -4.01%K -25.10%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-05-19 13:00 |
| Betway🎯 | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.90%EV -5.12%E -1.08%K -1.37%G +0.000% | 1.18I 84.75%NM 80.10%EV -5.57%E -4.72%K -30.94%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-05-19 13:00 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.90%EV -5.12%E -1.08%K -1.37%G +0.000% | 1.18I 84.75%NM 80.10%EV -5.57%E -4.72%K -30.94%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-05-19 13:00 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.90%EV -5.12%E -1.08%K -1.37%G +0.000% | 1.18I 84.75%NM 80.10%EV -5.57%E -4.72%K -30.94%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-05-19 13:00 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 4.70I 21.28%NM 20.34%EV -6.12%E -1.30%K -1.65%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 79.66%EV -3.97%E -3.31%K -19.85%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-05-19 13:00 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 4.70I 21.28%NM 20.34%EV -6.12%E -1.30%K -1.65%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 79.66%EV -3.97%E -3.31%K -19.85%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-05-19 12:59 |
| ReBet🎯 | 4.70I 21.28%NM 20.34%EV -6.12%E -1.30%K -1.65%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 79.66%EV -3.97%E -3.31%K -19.85%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-05-19 13:00 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 4.70I 21.28%NM 20.07%EV -6.12%E -1.30%K -1.65%G +0.000% | 1.18I 84.75%NM 79.93%EV -5.57%E -4.72%K -30.94%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-05-19 13:00 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.93%EV -6.12%E -1.30%K -1.65%G +0.000% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 80.07%EV -6.37%E -5.44%K -37.47%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-05-19 13:00 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.66%EV -6.12%E -1.30%K -1.65%G +0.000% | 1.15I 86.96%NM 80.34%EV -7.97%E -6.93%K -53.14%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-05-19 12:59 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 4.65I 21.51%NM 20.10%EV -7.12%E -1.53%K -1.95%G +0.000% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 79.90%EV -6.37%E -5.44%K -37.47%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-05-19 13:00 |
| Betsson🎯 | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.55%EV -8.12%E -1.76%K -2.26%G +0.000% | 1.19I 84.03%NM 79.45%EV -4.77%E -4.01%K -25.10%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-05-19 13:00 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.55%EV -8.12%E -1.76%K -2.26%G +0.000% | 1.19I 84.03%NM 79.45%EV -4.77%E -4.01%K -25.10%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-05-19 13:00 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.55%EV -8.12%E -1.76%K -2.26%G +0.000% | 1.19I 84.03%NM 79.45%EV -4.77%E -4.01%K -25.10%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-05-19 13:00 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.55%EV -8.12%E -1.76%K -2.26%G +0.000% | 1.19I 84.03%NM 79.45%EV -4.77%E -4.01%K -25.10%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-05-19 13:00 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.28%EV -8.12%E -1.76%K -2.26%G +0.000% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 79.72%EV -6.37%E -5.44%K -37.47%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-05-19 13:00 |
| Coral🎯 | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.28%EV -8.12%E -1.76%K -2.26%G +0.000% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 79.72%EV -6.37%E -5.44%K -37.47%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-05-19 13:01 |
| 888sport🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.05%EV -10.12%E -2.25%K -2.89%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 78.95%EV -3.97%E -3.31%K -19.85%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-05-19 13:01 |
| William Hill🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.05%EV -10.12%E -2.25%K -2.89%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 78.95%EV -3.97%E -3.31%K -19.85%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-05-19 13:01 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.05%EV -10.12%E -2.25%K -2.89%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 78.95%EV -3.97%E -3.31%K -19.85%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-05-19 13:01 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.05%EV -10.12%E -2.25%K -2.89%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 78.95%EV -3.97%E -3.31%K -19.85%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-05-19 13:00 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.77%EV -10.12%E -2.25%K -2.89%G +0.000% | 1.18I 84.75%NM 79.23%EV -5.57%E -4.72%K -30.94%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-05-19 13:00 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.63%EV -10.12%E -2.25%K -2.89%G +0.000% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 79.37%EV -6.37%E -5.44%K -37.47%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-05-19 13:00 |
| Neds🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.63%EV -10.12%E -2.25%K -2.89%G +0.000% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 79.37%EV -6.37%E -5.44%K -37.47%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-05-19 13:00 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.63%EV -10.12%E -2.25%K -2.89%G +0.000% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 79.37%EV -6.37%E -5.44%K -37.47%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-05-19 13:00 |
| Everygame🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.49%EV -10.12%E -2.25%K -2.89%G +0.000% | 1.16I 86.21%NM 79.51%EV -7.17%E -6.18%K -44.81%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-05-19 13:00 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 4.45I 22.47%NM 21.24%EV -11.11%E -2.50%K -3.22%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 78.76%EV -3.97%E -3.31%K -19.85%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-05-19 13:00 |
| TAB🎯 | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.15%EV -12.11%E -2.75%K -3.56%G +0.000% | 1.18I 84.75%NM 78.85%EV -5.57%E -4.72%K -30.94%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-05-19 13:00 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 4.33I 23.09%NM 21.42%EV -13.51%E -3.12%K -4.06%G +0.000% | 1.18I 84.75%NM 78.58%EV -5.57%E -4.72%K -30.94%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-05-19 13:00 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.08%EV -16.11%E -3.84%K -5.03%G +0.000% | 1.19I 84.03%NM 77.92%EV -4.77%E -4.01%K -25.10%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-05-19 13:00 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (6)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 5.30I 18.87%NM 18.84% | 1.23I 81.30%NM 81.16% | 0.2% | 2026-05-19 13:00 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 5.30I 18.87%NM 18.84% | 1.23I 81.30%NM 81.16% | 0.2% | 2026-05-19 13:00 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 5.30I 18.87%NM 18.84% | 1.23I 81.30%NM 81.16% | 0.2% | 2026-05-19 13:00 |
| Matchbook◎ | 5.30I 18.87%NM 18.84% | 1.23I 81.30%NM 81.16% | 0.2% | 2026-05-19 13:01 |
| Smarkets◎ | 5.20I 19.23%NM 18.88% | 1.21I 82.64%NM 81.12% | 1.9% | 2026-05-19 13:00 |
| Novig◎ | 5.13I 19.49%NM 19.09% | 1.21I 82.64%NM 80.91% | 2.1% | 2026-05-19 13:00 |