Language:English
Aleksandar Kovacevic v Arthur Gea
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Aleksandar Kovacevic (Local)
Prediction 47.40%2.11fair odd
EV +8.06%
Edge +3.54%
Kelly +6.30%
Growth +0.508%
assuming max odds 2.28
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
42.42%47.43%47.41%51.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.802.002.002.2855.56%50.01%50.00%43.86%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Arthur Gea (Visit)
Prediction 52.60%1.90fair odd
EV +0.472%
Edge +0.247%
Kelly +0.519%
Growth +0.002%
assuming max odds 1.91
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
48.52%52.57%52.59%57.58%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.671.771.751.9159.88%56.35%57.14%52.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Aleksandar Kovacevic (Local): 47.40%; Arthur Gea (Visit): 52.60%. For Aleksandar Kovacevic (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.11. 3 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.28, corresponding to a positive expected value of +8.06%.
Sportsbook Odds (40 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 2.28I 43.86%NM 42.42%EV +8.06%E +3.54%K +6.30%G +0.508% | 1.68I 59.52%NM 57.58%EV -11.63%E -6.92%K -17.10%G +0.000% | 3.4% | 2026-05-19 10:36 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 2.28I 43.86%NM 42.42%EV +8.06%E +3.54%K +6.30%G +0.508% | 1.68I 59.52%NM 57.58%EV -11.63%E -6.92%K -17.10%G +0.000% | 3.4% | 2026-05-19 10:36 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 2.13I 46.95%NM 45.24%EV +0.955%E +0.448%K +0.845%G +0.008% | 1.76I 56.82%NM 54.76%EV -7.42%E -4.21%K -9.76%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-05-19 10:50 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.88%EV -0.467%E -0.222%K -0.424%G +0.000% | 1.71I 58.48%NM 55.12%EV -10.05%E -5.88%K -14.15%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-05-19 10:50 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.30%EV -0.467%E -0.222%K -0.424%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 55.70%EV -12.15%E -7.28%K -18.14%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-05-19 10:50 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 2.07I 48.31%NM 45.95%EV -1.89%E -0.912%K -1.77%G +0.000% | 1.76I 56.82%NM 54.05%EV -7.42%E -4.21%K -9.76%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-19 10:50 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 2.07I 48.31%NM 45.67%EV -1.89%E -0.912%K -1.77%G +0.000% | 1.74I 57.47%NM 54.33%EV -8.47%E -4.87%K -11.45%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-05-19 10:50 |
| Unibet🎯 | 2.07I 48.31%NM 45.67%EV -1.89%E -0.912%K -1.77%G +0.000% | 1.74I 57.47%NM 54.33%EV -8.47%E -4.87%K -11.45%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-05-19 10:50 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 2.07I 48.31%NM 45.67%EV -1.89%E -0.912%K -1.77%G +0.000% | 1.74I 57.47%NM 54.33%EV -8.47%E -4.87%K -11.45%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-05-19 10:50 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 2.07I 48.31%NM 45.67%EV -1.89%E -0.912%K -1.77%G +0.000% | 1.74I 57.47%NM 54.33%EV -8.47%E -4.87%K -11.45%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-05-19 10:50 |
| betPARX🎯 | 2.07I 48.31%NM 45.67%EV -1.89%E -0.912%K -1.77%G +0.000% | 1.74I 57.47%NM 54.33%EV -8.47%E -4.87%K -11.45%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-05-19 10:50 |
| TAB🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.05%EV -2.84%E -1.38%K -2.70%G +0.000% | 1.75I 57.14%NM 53.95%EV -7.94%E -4.54%K -10.59%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-05-19 10:50 |
| Betsson🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.05%EV -2.84%E -1.38%K -2.70%G +0.000% | 1.75I 57.14%NM 53.95%EV -7.94%E -4.54%K -10.59%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-05-19 10:50 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.05%EV -2.84%E -1.38%K -2.70%G +0.000% | 1.75I 57.14%NM 53.95%EV -7.94%E -4.54%K -10.59%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-05-19 10:50 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.91%EV -2.84%E -1.38%K -2.70%G +0.000% | 1.74I 57.47%NM 54.09%EV -8.47%E -4.87%K -11.45%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-05-19 10:50 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.62%EV -2.84%E -1.38%K -2.70%G +0.000% | 1.72I 58.14%NM 54.38%EV -9.52%E -5.54%K -13.23%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-05-19 10:50 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.33%EV -2.84%E -1.38%K -2.70%G +0.000% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 54.67%EV -10.57%E -6.22%K -15.11%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-05-19 10:50 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 2.01I 49.75%NM 46.97%EV -4.73%E -2.35%K -4.69%G +0.000% | 1.78I 56.18%NM 53.03%EV -6.37%E -3.58%K -8.16%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-05-19 10:50 |
| Bovada🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -5.21%E -2.60%K -5.21%G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -3.74%E -2.04%K -4.50%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-05-19 10:49 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.38%EV -5.21%E -2.60%K -5.21%G +0.000% | 1.73I 57.80%NM 53.62%EV -9.00%E -5.20%K -12.32%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-05-19 10:50 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.38%EV -5.21%E -2.60%K -5.21%G +0.000% | 1.73I 57.80%NM 53.62%EV -9.00%E -5.20%K -12.32%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-05-19 10:50 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.24%EV -5.21%E -2.60%K -5.21%G +0.000% | 1.72I 58.14%NM 53.76%EV -9.52%E -5.54%K -13.23%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-05-19 10:50 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.95%EV -7.58%E -3.89%K -7.98%G +0.000% | 1.87I 53.48%NM 51.05%EV -1.63%E -0.873%K -1.88%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-05-19 10:50 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.68%EV -7.58%E -3.89%K -7.98%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 51.32%EV -2.68%E -1.45%K -3.16%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-19 10:50 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.00%EV -7.58%E -3.89%K -7.98%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.00%EV -5.31%E -2.95%K -6.64%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-05-19 10:50 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 47.30%EV -7.58%E -3.89%K -7.98%G +0.000% | 1.75I 57.14%NM 52.70%EV -7.94%E -4.54%K -10.59%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-05-19 10:50 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.94I 51.55%NM 48.54%EV -8.05%E -4.15%K -8.56%G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 51.46%EV -3.74%E -2.04%K -4.50%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-05-19 10:50 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.94I 51.55%NM 48.54%EV -8.05%E -4.15%K -8.56%G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 51.46%EV -3.74%E -2.04%K -4.50%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-05-19 10:50 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.94I 51.55%NM 48.54%EV -8.05%E -4.15%K -8.56%G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 51.46%EV -3.74%E -2.04%K -4.50%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-05-19 10:50 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.92I 52.08%NM 48.53%EV -9.00%E -4.69%K -9.78%G +0.000% | 1.81I 55.25%NM 51.47%EV -4.79%E -2.65%K -5.91%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-05-19 10:50 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.92I 52.08%NM 48.53%EV -9.00%E -4.69%K -9.78%G +0.000% | 1.81I 55.25%NM 51.47%EV -4.79%E -2.65%K -5.91%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-05-19 10:50 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.92I 52.08%NM 48.53%EV -9.00%E -4.69%K -9.78%G +0.000% | 1.81I 55.25%NM 51.47%EV -4.79%E -2.65%K -5.91%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-05-19 10:50 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 48.93%EV -9.47%E -4.96%K -10.41%G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 51.07%EV -3.74%E -2.04%K -4.50%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-05-19 10:49 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 48.52%EV -9.47%E -4.96%K -10.41%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 51.48%EV -5.31%E -2.95%K -6.64%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-05-19 10:50 |
| Fliff🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 47.67%EV -9.47%E -4.96%K -10.41%G +0.000% | 1.74I 57.47%NM 52.33%EV -8.47%E -4.87%K -11.45%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-05-19 10:50 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.90I 52.63%NM 47.51%EV -9.95%E -5.23%K -11.05%G +0.000% | 1.72I 58.14%NM 52.49%EV -9.52%E -5.54%K -13.23%G +0.000% | 10.8% | 2026-05-19 10:50 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.87I 53.48%NM 50.00%EV -11.37%E -6.08%K -13.07%G +0.000% | 1.87I 53.48%NM 50.00%EV -1.63%E -0.873%K -1.88%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-05-19 10:50 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 50.00%EV -12.32%E -6.66%K -14.49%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 50.00%EV -2.68%E -1.45%K -3.16%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-05-19 10:50 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 51.07%EV -13.26%E -7.25%K -15.98%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 48.93%EV +0.472%E +0.247%K +0.519%G +0.002% | 7.0% | 2026-05-19 10:50 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 51.48%EV -14.69%E -8.16%K -18.36%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 48.52%EV +0.472%E +0.247%K +0.519%G +0.002% | 7.9% | 2026-05-19 10:50 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (6)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 2.12I 47.17%NM 46.87% | 1.87I 53.48%NM 53.13% | 0.6% | 2026-05-19 10:50 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 2.16I 46.30%NM 45.86% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 54.14% | 0.9% | 2026-05-19 10:50 |
| Novig◎ | 2.00I 50.00%NM 48.32% | 1.87I 53.48%NM 51.68% | 3.5% | 2026-05-19 10:49 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.95I 51.28%NM 49.35% | 1.90I 52.63%NM 50.65% | 3.9% | 2026-05-19 10:50 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.96I 51.02%NM 48.69% | 1.86I 53.76%NM 51.31% | 4.8% | 2026-05-19 10:50 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.84I 54.35%NM 46.36% | 1.59I 62.89%NM 53.64% | 17.2% | 2026-05-19 10:50 |