A Escola das Odds

Aleksandar Kovacevic v Arthur Gea

Início: 2026-05-19 11:00 UTC

Odds de fecho — as probabilidades calculadas e o valor esperado com base nas últimas cotações registadas antes do início, segundo o modelo selecionado. O jogo já começou, pelo que estes valores não são atuais. Avaliar a fiabilidade das previsões probabilísticas de cada modelo face aos resultados de todos os jogos concluídos →

Frente a frente

40 casas de apostas (18 na análise )

Probabilidade estimada de cada resultado, segundo o modelo: IQM

Aleksandar Kovacevic (Local)

Previsão 47.40%2.11odd justa
EV +8.06%
Vantagem +3.54%
Kelly +6.30%
Crescimento +0.508%

pressupondo odds máximas de 2.28

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
42.42%47.43%47.41%51.48%MINMÉDIAMEDIANAMAX
Distribuição das odds
1.802.002.002.2855.56%50.01%50.00%43.86%MINMÉDIAMEDIANAMAX

Arthur Gea (Visitante)

Previsão 52.60%1.90odd justa
EV +0.472%
Vantagem +0.247%
Kelly +0.519%
Crescimento +0.002%

pressupondo odds máximas de 1.91

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
48.52%52.57%52.59%57.58%MINMÉDIAMEDIANAMAX
Distribuição das odds
1.671.771.751.9159.88%56.35%57.14%52.36%MINMÉDIAMEDIANAMAX

Odds das casas de apostas (40 casas de apostas)

Não temos qualquer vínculo com casas de apostas e não recebemos nada pelas ações realizadas junto delas.

Casa de apostasLocal ▼VisitanteMargemAtualização
BetOnline.ag2.28I 43.86%NM 42.42%EV +8.06%E +3.54%K +6.30%G +0.508%1.68I 59.52%NM 57.58%EV -11.63%E -6.92%K -17.10%G +0.000%3.4%2026-05-19 10:36
LowVig.ag2.28I 43.86%NM 42.42%EV +8.06%E +3.54%K +6.30%G +0.508%1.68I 59.52%NM 57.58%EV -11.63%E -6.92%K -17.10%G +0.000%3.4%2026-05-19 10:36
Pinnacle2.13I 46.95%NM 45.24%EV +0.955%E +0.448%K +0.845%G +0.008%1.76I 56.82%NM 54.76%EV -7.42%E -4.21%K -9.76%G +0.000%3.8%2026-05-19 10:50
theScore Bet2.10I 47.62%NM 44.88%EV -0.467%E -0.222%K -0.424%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 55.12%EV -10.05%E -5.88%K -14.15%G +0.000%6.1%2026-05-19 10:50
Paddy Power2.10I 47.62%NM 44.30%EV -0.467%E -0.222%K -0.424%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 55.70%EV -12.15%E -7.28%K -18.14%G +0.000%7.5%2026-05-19 10:50
Unibet (UK)2.07I 48.31%NM 45.95%EV -1.89%E -0.912%K -1.77%G +0.000%1.76I 56.82%NM 54.05%EV -7.42%E -4.21%K -9.76%G +0.000%5.1%2026-05-19 10:50
Unibet (SE)2.07I 48.31%NM 45.67%EV -1.89%E -0.912%K -1.77%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 54.33%EV -8.47%E -4.87%K -11.45%G +0.000%5.8%2026-05-19 10:50
Unibet2.07I 48.31%NM 45.67%EV -1.89%E -0.912%K -1.77%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 54.33%EV -8.47%E -4.87%K -11.45%G +0.000%5.8%2026-05-19 10:50
BetRivers2.07I 48.31%NM 45.67%EV -1.89%E -0.912%K -1.77%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 54.33%EV -8.47%E -4.87%K -11.45%G +0.000%5.8%2026-05-19 10:50
Svenska Spel2.07I 48.31%NM 45.67%EV -1.89%E -0.912%K -1.77%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 54.33%EV -8.47%E -4.87%K -11.45%G +0.000%5.8%2026-05-19 10:50
betPARX2.07I 48.31%NM 45.67%EV -1.89%E -0.912%K -1.77%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 54.33%EV -8.47%E -4.87%K -11.45%G +0.000%5.8%2026-05-19 10:50
TAB2.05I 48.78%NM 46.05%EV -2.84%E -1.38%K -2.70%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 53.95%EV -7.94%E -4.54%K -10.59%G +0.000%5.9%2026-05-19 10:50
Betsson2.05I 48.78%NM 46.05%EV -2.84%E -1.38%K -2.70%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 53.95%EV -7.94%E -4.54%K -10.59%G +0.000%5.9%2026-05-19 10:50
Coolbet2.05I 48.78%NM 46.05%EV -2.84%E -1.38%K -2.70%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 53.95%EV -7.94%E -4.54%K -10.59%G +0.000%5.9%2026-05-19 10:50
Hard Rock Bet2.05I 48.78%NM 45.91%EV -2.84%E -1.38%K -2.70%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 54.09%EV -8.47%E -4.87%K -11.45%G +0.000%6.3%2026-05-19 10:50
TABtouch2.05I 48.78%NM 45.62%EV -2.84%E -1.38%K -2.70%G +0.000%1.72I 58.14%NM 54.38%EV -9.52%E -5.54%K -13.23%G +0.000%6.9%2026-05-19 10:50
NordicBet2.05I 48.78%NM 45.33%EV -2.84%E -1.38%K -2.70%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 54.67%EV -10.57%E -6.22%K -15.11%G +0.000%7.6%2026-05-19 10:50
DraftKings2.01I 49.75%NM 46.97%EV -4.73%E -2.35%K -4.69%G +0.000%1.78I 56.18%NM 53.03%EV -6.37%E -3.58%K -8.16%G +0.000%5.9%2026-05-19 10:50
Bovada2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -5.21%E -2.60%K -5.21%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -3.74%E -2.04%K -4.50%G +0.000%4.6%2026-05-19 10:49
888sport (SE)2.00I 50.00%NM 46.38%EV -5.21%E -2.60%K -5.21%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 53.62%EV -9.00%E -5.20%K -12.32%G +0.000%7.8%2026-05-19 10:50
Mr Green (SE)2.00I 50.00%NM 46.38%EV -5.21%E -2.60%K -5.21%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 53.62%EV -9.00%E -5.20%K -12.32%G +0.000%7.8%2026-05-19 10:50
Winamax (DE)2.00I 50.00%NM 46.24%EV -5.21%E -2.60%K -5.21%G +0.000%1.72I 58.14%NM 53.76%EV -9.52%E -5.54%K -13.23%G +0.000%8.1%2026-05-19 10:50
FanDuel1.95I 51.28%NM 48.95%EV -7.58%E -3.89%K -7.98%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 51.05%EV -1.63%E -0.873%K -1.88%G +0.000%4.8%2026-05-19 10:50
Betway1.95I 51.28%NM 48.68%EV -7.58%E -3.89%K -7.98%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 51.32%EV -2.68%E -1.45%K -3.16%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-19 10:50
PointsBet (AU)1.95I 51.28%NM 48.00%EV -7.58%E -3.89%K -7.98%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.00%EV -5.31%E -2.95%K -6.64%G +0.000%6.8%2026-05-19 10:50
Tipico (DE)1.95I 51.28%NM 47.30%EV -7.58%E -3.89%K -7.98%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 52.70%EV -7.94%E -4.54%K -10.59%G +0.000%8.4%2026-05-19 10:50
Casumo1.94I 51.55%NM 48.54%EV -8.05%E -4.15%K -8.56%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 51.46%EV -3.74%E -2.04%K -4.50%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-19 10:50
Unibet (NL)1.94I 51.55%NM 48.54%EV -8.05%E -4.15%K -8.56%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 51.46%EV -3.74%E -2.04%K -4.50%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-19 10:50
ATG (SE)1.94I 51.55%NM 48.54%EV -8.05%E -4.15%K -8.56%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 51.46%EV -3.74%E -2.04%K -4.50%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-19 10:50
Grosvenor1.92I 52.08%NM 48.53%EV -9.00%E -4.69%K -9.78%G +0.000%1.81I 55.25%NM 51.47%EV -4.79%E -2.65%K -5.91%G +0.000%7.3%2026-05-19 10:50
Virgin Bet1.92I 52.08%NM 48.53%EV -9.00%E -4.69%K -9.78%G +0.000%1.81I 55.25%NM 51.47%EV -4.79%E -2.65%K -5.91%G +0.000%7.3%2026-05-19 10:50
LiveScore Bet1.92I 52.08%NM 48.53%EV -9.00%E -4.69%K -9.78%G +0.000%1.81I 55.25%NM 51.47%EV -4.79%E -2.65%K -5.91%G +0.000%7.3%2026-05-19 10:50
Fanatics1.91I 52.36%NM 48.93%EV -9.47%E -4.96%K -10.41%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 51.07%EV -3.74%E -2.04%K -4.50%G +0.000%7.0%2026-05-19 10:49
888sport1.91I 52.36%NM 48.52%EV -9.47%E -4.96%K -10.41%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 51.48%EV -5.31%E -2.95%K -6.64%G +0.000%7.9%2026-05-19 10:50
Fliff1.91I 52.36%NM 47.67%EV -9.47%E -4.96%K -10.41%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 52.33%EV -8.47%E -4.87%K -11.45%G +0.000%9.8%2026-05-19 10:50
Winamax (FR)1.90I 52.63%NM 47.51%EV -9.95%E -5.23%K -11.05%G +0.000%1.72I 58.14%NM 52.49%EV -9.52%E -5.54%K -13.23%G +0.000%10.8%2026-05-19 10:50
BetMGM1.87I 53.48%NM 50.00%EV -11.37%E -6.08%K -13.07%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 50.00%EV -1.63%E -0.873%K -1.88%G +0.000%7.0%2026-05-19 10:50
Coral1.85I 54.05%NM 50.00%EV -12.32%E -6.66%K -14.49%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 50.00%EV -2.68%E -1.45%K -3.16%G +0.000%8.1%2026-05-19 10:50
Bet Victor1.83I 54.64%NM 51.07%EV -13.26%E -7.25%K -15.98%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 48.93%EV +0.472%E +0.247%K +0.519%G +0.002%7.0%2026-05-19 10:50
BoyleSports1.80I 55.56%NM 51.48%EV -14.69%E -8.16%K -18.36%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 48.52%EV +0.472%E +0.247%K +0.519%G +0.002%7.9%2026-05-19 10:50
Margem = Margem · I = Probabilidade implícita · NM = Probabilidade sem margem · EV = Valor esperado · E = Vantagem · K = Critério de Kelly · G = Crescimento do capital de apostas

Atualização indica quando cada casa alterou a cotação pela última vez; uma hora mais antiga significa apenas que as odds não mudaram, não que estejam desatualizadas. As casas sem dados nos últimos ~15 minutos são normalmente excluídas; apenas quando a fonte de todo um mercado fica sem atualizações se mostram as últimas cotações registadas.

Bolsas de apostas (6)

Casa de apostasLocalVisitanteMargem ▲Atualização
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.12I 47.17%NM 46.87%1.87I 53.48%NM 53.13%0.6%2026-05-19 10:50
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.16I 46.30%NM 45.86%1.83I 54.64%NM 54.14%0.9%2026-05-19 10:50
Novig2.00I 50.00%NM 48.32%1.87I 53.48%NM 51.68%3.5%2026-05-19 10:49
Smarkets1.95I 51.28%NM 49.35%1.90I 52.63%NM 50.65%3.9%2026-05-19 10:50
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.96I 51.02%NM 48.69%1.86I 53.76%NM 51.31%4.8%2026-05-19 10:50
Matchbook1.84I 54.35%NM 46.36%1.59I 62.89%NM 53.64%17.2%2026-05-19 10:50