Language:English
Frances Tiafoe v Sho Shimabukuro
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Frances Tiafoe (Local)
Prediction 67.88%1.47fair odd
EV -2.25%
Edge -1.56%
Kelly -5.11%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.44
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
66.27%67.92%67.91%69.14%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.351.401.401.4474.07%71.64%71.43%69.44%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Sho Shimabukuro (Visit)
Prediction 32.12%3.11fair odd
EV -1.40%
Edge -0.458%
Kelly -0.679%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.07
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
30.86%32.08%32.09%33.73%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.752.932.953.0736.36%34.13%33.90%32.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Frances Tiafoe (Local): 67.88%; Sho Shimabukuro (Visit): 32.12%. For Sho Shimabukuro (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.11. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.07, with an expected value of -1.40%; they did not produce positive expected value.
Sportsbook Odds (64 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 67.71%EV -2.25%E -1.56%K -5.11%G +0.000% | 3.02I 33.11%NM 32.29%EV -3.01%E -0.997%K -1.49%G +0.000% | 2.6% | 2026-06-17 11:30 |
| Dabble (AU)🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 66.74%EV -3.60%E -2.54%K -8.58%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.26%EV -8.47%E -2.97%K -4.58%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-06-17 11:30 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 66.35%EV -3.60%E -2.54%K -8.58%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.65%EV -10.08%E -3.60%K -5.60%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-06-17 11:30 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.41I 70.92%NM 68.39%EV -4.28%E -3.04%K -10.45%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.61%EV -2.05%E -0.671%K -0.999%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-06-17 11:30 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.41I 70.92%NM 68.39%EV -4.28%E -3.04%K -10.45%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.61%EV -2.05%E -0.671%K -0.999%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-06-17 11:28 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.41I 70.92%NM 68.10%EV -4.28%E -3.04%K -10.45%G +0.000% | 3.01I 33.22%NM 31.90%EV -3.33%E -1.11%K -1.66%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-06-17 11:30 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.41I 70.92%NM 68.10%EV -4.28%E -3.04%K -10.45%G +0.000% | 3.01I 33.22%NM 31.90%EV -3.33%E -1.11%K -1.66%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-06-17 11:30 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.41I 70.92%NM 67.51%EV -4.28%E -3.04%K -10.45%G +0.000% | 2.93I 34.13%NM 32.49%EV -5.90%E -2.01%K -3.06%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-06-17 11:30 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -4.96%E -3.54%K -12.40%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV -3.65%E -1.22%K -1.83%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-06-17 11:30 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -4.96%E -3.54%K -12.40%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV -3.65%E -1.22%K -1.83%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-06-17 11:30 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -4.96%E -3.54%K -12.40%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV -3.65%E -1.22%K -1.83%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-06-17 11:30 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -4.96%E -3.54%K -12.40%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV -3.65%E -1.22%K -1.83%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-06-17 11:30 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -4.96%E -3.54%K -12.40%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV -3.65%E -1.22%K -1.83%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-06-17 11:30 |
| GTbets🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.89%EV -4.96%E -3.54%K -12.40%G +0.000% | 2.96I 33.78%NM 32.11%EV -4.94%E -1.67%K -2.52%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-06-17 11:29 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.82%EV -4.96%E -3.54%K -12.40%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.18%EV -5.26%E -1.78%K -2.70%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-06-17 11:30 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.82%EV -4.96%E -3.54%K -12.40%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.18%EV -5.26%E -1.78%K -2.70%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-06-17 11:30 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.82%EV -4.96%E -3.54%K -12.40%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.18%EV -5.26%E -1.78%K -2.70%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-06-17 11:28 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.82%EV -4.96%E -3.54%K -12.40%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.18%EV -5.26%E -1.78%K -2.70%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-06-17 11:30 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.82%EV -4.96%E -3.54%K -12.40%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.18%EV -5.26%E -1.78%K -2.70%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-06-17 11:30 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.82%EV -4.96%E -3.54%K -12.40%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.18%EV -5.26%E -1.78%K -2.70%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-06-17 11:30 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.82%EV -4.96%E -3.54%K -12.40%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.18%EV -5.26%E -1.78%K -2.70%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-06-17 11:30 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.82%EV -4.96%E -3.54%K -12.40%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.18%EV -5.26%E -1.78%K -2.70%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-06-17 11:30 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.82%EV -4.96%E -3.54%K -12.40%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.18%EV -5.26%E -1.78%K -2.70%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-06-17 11:30 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.82%EV -4.96%E -3.54%K -12.40%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.18%EV -5.26%E -1.78%K -2.70%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-06-17 11:30 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.82%EV -4.96%E -3.54%K -12.40%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.18%EV -5.26%E -1.78%K -2.70%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-06-17 11:30 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.82%EV -4.96%E -3.54%K -12.40%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.18%EV -5.26%E -1.78%K -2.70%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-06-17 11:30 |
| ReBet🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.82%EV -4.96%E -3.54%K -12.40%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.18%EV -5.26%E -1.78%K -2.70%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-06-17 11:29 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.82%EV -4.96%E -3.54%K -12.40%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.18%EV -5.26%E -1.78%K -2.70%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-06-17 11:30 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.82%EV -4.96%E -3.54%K -12.40%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.18%EV -5.26%E -1.78%K -2.70%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-06-17 11:30 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.82%EV -4.96%E -3.54%K -12.40%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.18%EV -5.26%E -1.78%K -2.70%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-06-17 11:30 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.82%EV -4.96%E -3.54%K -12.40%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.18%EV -5.26%E -1.78%K -2.70%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-06-17 11:30 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.82%EV -4.96%E -3.54%K -12.40%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.18%EV -5.26%E -1.78%K -2.70%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-06-17 11:30 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.74%EV -4.96%E -3.54%K -12.40%G +0.000% | 2.94I 34.01%NM 32.26%EV -5.58%E -1.90%K -2.88%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-06-17 11:30 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.59%EV -4.96%E -3.54%K -12.40%G +0.000% | 2.92I 34.25%NM 32.41%EV -6.22%E -2.13%K -3.24%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-06-17 11:30 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -4.96%E -3.54%K -12.40%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -6.86%E -2.37%K -3.61%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-06-17 11:30 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -4.96%E -3.54%K -12.40%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -6.86%E -2.37%K -3.61%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-06-17 11:30 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -4.96%E -3.54%K -12.40%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -6.86%E -2.37%K -3.61%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-06-17 11:30 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -4.96%E -3.54%K -12.40%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -6.86%E -2.37%K -3.61%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-06-17 11:30 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -4.96%E -3.54%K -12.40%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -6.86%E -2.37%K -3.61%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-06-17 11:29 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -4.96%E -3.54%K -12.40%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -6.86%E -2.37%K -3.61%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-06-17 11:30 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -4.96%E -3.54%K -12.40%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -6.86%E -2.37%K -3.61%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-06-17 11:29 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -4.96%E -3.54%K -12.40%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -6.86%E -2.37%K -3.61%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-06-17 11:29 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.29%EV -4.96%E -3.54%K -12.40%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 32.71%EV -7.51%E -2.61%K -3.99%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-06-17 11:29 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.29%EV -4.96%E -3.54%K -12.40%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 32.71%EV -7.51%E -2.61%K -3.99%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-06-17 11:30 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.21%EV -4.96%E -3.54%K -12.40%G +0.000% | 2.87I 34.84%NM 32.79%EV -7.83%E -2.73%K -4.19%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-06-17 11:30 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.21%EV -4.96%E -3.54%K -12.40%G +0.000% | 2.87I 34.84%NM 32.79%EV -7.83%E -2.73%K -4.19%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-06-17 11:30 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 66.67%EV -4.96%E -3.54%K -12.40%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.33%EV -10.08%E -3.60%K -5.60%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-06-17 11:30 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 66.67%EV -4.96%E -3.54%K -12.40%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.33%EV -10.08%E -3.60%K -5.60%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-06-17 11:30 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 66.67%EV -4.96%E -3.54%K -12.40%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.33%EV -10.08%E -3.60%K -5.60%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-06-17 11:29 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 66.67%EV -4.96%E -3.54%K -12.40%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.33%EV -10.08%E -3.60%K -5.60%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-06-17 11:30 |
| Everygame🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 66.27%EV -4.96%E -3.54%K -12.40%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%EV -11.68%E -4.25%K -6.68%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-06-17 11:30 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.39I 71.94%NM 67.97%EV -5.64%E -4.06%K -14.46%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.03%EV -5.26%E -1.78%K -2.70%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-06-17 11:30 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.49%EV -6.32%E -4.58%K -16.63%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.51%EV -3.65%E -1.22%K -1.83%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-06-17 11:30 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.13%EV -6.32%E -4.58%K -16.63%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.87%EV -5.26%E -1.78%K -2.70%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-06-17 11:29 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 67.91%EV -6.32%E -4.58%K -16.63%G +0.000% | 2.92I 34.25%NM 32.09%EV -6.22%E -2.13%K -3.24%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-06-17 11:30 |
| Fliff🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 67.76%EV -6.32%E -4.58%K -16.63%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.24%EV -6.86%E -2.37%K -3.61%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-06-17 11:29 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.37I 72.99%NM 69.14%EV -7.00%E -5.11%K -18.91%G +0.000% | 3.07I 32.57%NM 30.86%EV -1.40%E -0.458%K -0.679%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-06-17 11:30 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.37I 72.99%NM 67.92%EV -7.00%E -5.11%K -18.91%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.08%EV -6.86%E -2.37%K -3.61%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-06-17 11:30 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.37I 72.99%NM 67.92%EV -7.00%E -5.11%K -18.91%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.08%EV -6.86%E -2.37%K -3.61%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-06-17 11:30 |
| Caesars🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -7.68%E -5.65%K -21.33%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -3.65%E -1.22%K -1.83%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-06-17 11:30 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.59%EV -7.68%E -5.65%K -21.33%G +0.000% | 2.97I 33.67%NM 31.41%EV -4.62%E -1.55%K -2.34%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-06-17 11:30 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 67.92%EV -7.68%E -5.65%K -21.33%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 32.08%EV -7.51%E -2.61%K -3.99%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-06-17 11:30 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 67.70%EV -7.68%E -5.65%K -21.33%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 32.30%EV -8.47%E -2.97%K -4.58%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-06-17 11:30 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 68.60%EV -8.36%E -6.19%K -23.87%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.40%EV -5.26%E -1.78%K -2.70%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-06-17 11:19 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (6)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.46I 68.49%NM 67.98% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 32.02% | 0.8% | 2026-06-17 11:30 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.47I 68.03%NM 67.48% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 32.52% | 0.8% | 2026-06-17 11:30 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.47I 68.03%NM 67.48% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 32.52% | 0.8% | 2026-06-17 11:30 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.47I 68.03%NM 67.48% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 32.52% | 0.8% | 2026-06-17 11:30 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.44I 69.44%NM 67.57% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 32.43% | 2.8% | 2026-06-17 11:30 |
| Novig◎ | 1.43I 69.93%NM 67.65% | 2.99I 33.44%NM 32.35% | 3.4% | 2026-06-17 11:30 |