L’École des cotes

Fabian Marozsan v Miomir Kecmanovic

Coup d’envoi : 2026-06-16 13:25 UTC

Cotes de clôture — probabilités calculées et espérance mathématique obtenues, selon le modèle sélectionné, à partir des derniers prix enregistrés avant le coup d’envoi. Le match ayant commencé, il ne s’agit pas de valeurs en direct. Évaluer la fiabilité des prévisions probabilistes de chaque modèle sur l’ensemble des matchs réglés →

Résultat du match

65 opérateurs (22 dans l’analyse )

Probabilité estimée de chaque issue selon le modèle : IQM

Fabian Marozsan (Local)

Prévision 39.91%2.51cote équitable
EV -0.217%
Avantage -0.087%
Kelly -0.144%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 2.50

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
37.81%39.91%39.82%41.86%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
2.252.372.382.5044.44%42.11%42.02%40.00%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Miomir Kecmanovic (Visiteur)

Prévision 60.09%1.66cote équitable
EV -0.256%
Avantage -0.154%
Kelly -0.388%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 1.66

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
58.14%60.09%60.18%62.19%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
1.521.571.571.6665.79%63.54%63.69%60.24%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Cotes des opérateurs (65 opérateurs)

Nous ne sommes affiliés à aucun opérateur de paris et ne tirons aucun bénéfice des opérations réalisées auprès d’eux.

OpérateurLocal ▼VisiteurMargeMise à jour
Betway2.50I 40.00%NM 38.27%EV -0.217%E -0.087%K -0.144%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 61.73%EV -6.87%E -4.43%K -12.48%G +0.000%4.5%2026-06-16 13:20
DraftKings2.50I 40.00%NM 37.81%EV -0.217%E -0.087%K -0.144%G +0.000%1.52I 65.79%NM 62.19%EV -8.67%E -5.70%K -16.67%G +0.000%5.8%2026-06-16 13:20
Winamax (DE)2.45I 40.82%NM 39.21%EV -2.21%E -0.903%K -1.53%G +0.000%1.58I 63.29%NM 60.79%EV -5.06%E -3.20%K -8.73%G +0.000%4.1%2026-06-16 13:20
Hard Rock Bet2.45I 40.82%NM 38.90%EV -2.21%E -0.903%K -1.53%G +0.000%1.56I 64.10%NM 61.10%EV -6.26%E -4.02%K -11.19%G +0.000%4.9%2026-06-16 13:20
Unibet2.45I 40.82%NM 38.75%EV -2.21%E -0.903%K -1.53%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 61.25%EV -6.87%E -4.43%K -12.48%G +0.000%5.3%2026-06-16 13:20
LeoVegas2.45I 40.82%NM 38.75%EV -2.21%E -0.903%K -1.53%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 61.25%EV -6.87%E -4.43%K -12.48%G +0.000%5.3%2026-06-16 13:20
LeoVegas (SE)2.45I 40.82%NM 38.75%EV -2.21%E -0.903%K -1.53%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 61.25%EV -6.87%E -4.43%K -12.48%G +0.000%5.3%2026-06-16 13:20
Unibet (SE)2.45I 40.82%NM 38.75%EV -2.21%E -0.903%K -1.53%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 61.25%EV -6.87%E -4.43%K -12.48%G +0.000%5.3%2026-06-16 13:20
BetRivers2.45I 40.82%NM 38.75%EV -2.21%E -0.903%K -1.53%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 61.25%EV -6.87%E -4.43%K -12.48%G +0.000%5.3%2026-06-16 13:20
Grosvenor2.45I 40.82%NM 38.75%EV -2.21%E -0.903%K -1.53%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 61.25%EV -6.87%E -4.43%K -12.48%G +0.000%5.3%2026-06-16 13:20
Casumo2.45I 40.82%NM 38.75%EV -2.21%E -0.903%K -1.53%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 61.25%EV -6.87%E -4.43%K -12.48%G +0.000%5.3%2026-06-16 13:20
PMU (FR)2.45I 40.82%NM 38.75%EV -2.21%E -0.903%K -1.53%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 61.25%EV -6.87%E -4.43%K -12.48%G +0.000%5.3%2026-06-16 13:20
TABtouch2.45I 40.82%NM 38.75%EV -2.21%E -0.903%K -1.53%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 61.25%EV -6.87%E -4.43%K -12.48%G +0.000%5.3%2026-06-16 13:20
Unibet (NL)2.45I 40.82%NM 38.75%EV -2.21%E -0.903%K -1.53%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 61.25%EV -6.87%E -4.43%K -12.48%G +0.000%5.3%2026-06-16 13:20
Virgin Bet2.45I 40.82%NM 38.75%EV -2.21%E -0.903%K -1.53%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 61.25%EV -6.87%E -4.43%K -12.48%G +0.000%5.3%2026-06-16 13:20
LiveScore Bet2.45I 40.82%NM 38.75%EV -2.21%E -0.903%K -1.53%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 61.25%EV -6.87%E -4.43%K -12.48%G +0.000%5.3%2026-06-16 13:20
Bally Bet2.45I 40.82%NM 38.75%EV -2.21%E -0.903%K -1.53%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 61.25%EV -6.87%E -4.43%K -12.48%G +0.000%5.3%2026-06-16 13:20
Svenska Spel2.45I 40.82%NM 38.75%EV -2.21%E -0.903%K -1.53%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 61.25%EV -6.87%E -4.43%K -12.48%G +0.000%5.3%2026-06-16 13:20
ATG (SE)2.45I 40.82%NM 38.75%EV -2.21%E -0.903%K -1.53%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 61.25%EV -6.87%E -4.43%K -12.48%G +0.000%5.3%2026-06-16 13:20
betPARX2.45I 40.82%NM 38.75%EV -2.21%E -0.903%K -1.53%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 61.25%EV -6.87%E -4.43%K -12.48%G +0.000%5.3%2026-06-16 13:20
Unibet (UK)2.43I 41.15%NM 39.10%EV -3.01%E -1.24%K -2.11%G +0.000%1.56I 64.10%NM 60.90%EV -6.26%E -4.02%K -11.19%G +0.000%5.3%2026-06-16 13:20
LowVig.ag2.41I 41.49%NM 40.20%EV -3.81%E -1.58%K -2.70%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 59.80%EV -2.66%E -1.64%K -4.29%G +0.000%3.2%2026-06-16 13:20
BetOnline.ag2.41I 41.49%NM 40.20%EV -3.81%E -1.58%K -2.70%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 59.80%EV -2.66%E -1.64%K -4.29%G +0.000%3.2%2026-06-16 13:20
Bovada2.40I 41.67%NM 39.85%EV -4.21%E -1.75%K -3.01%G +0.000%1.59I 62.89%NM 60.15%EV -4.46%E -2.81%K -7.56%G +0.000%4.6%2026-06-16 13:20
Unibet (FR)2.40I 41.67%NM 39.70%EV -4.21%E -1.75%K -3.01%G +0.000%1.58I 63.29%NM 60.30%EV -5.06%E -3.20%K -8.73%G +0.000%5.0%2026-06-16 13:19
theScore Bet2.40I 41.67%NM 39.55%EV -4.21%E -1.75%K -3.01%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 60.45%EV -5.66%E -3.61%K -9.94%G +0.000%5.4%2026-06-16 13:20
Fanatics2.40I 41.67%NM 39.39%EV -4.21%E -1.75%K -3.01%G +0.000%1.56I 64.10%NM 60.61%EV -6.26%E -4.02%K -11.19%G +0.000%5.8%2026-06-16 13:20
Winamax (FR)2.40I 41.67%NM 39.39%EV -4.21%E -1.75%K -3.01%G +0.000%1.56I 64.10%NM 60.61%EV -6.26%E -4.02%K -11.19%G +0.000%5.8%2026-06-16 13:20
PointsBet (AU)2.40I 41.67%NM 39.39%EV -4.21%E -1.75%K -3.01%G +0.000%1.56I 64.10%NM 60.61%EV -6.26%E -4.02%K -11.19%G +0.000%5.8%2026-06-16 13:20
FanDuel2.38I 42.02%NM 40.05%EV -5.01%E -2.10%K -3.63%G +0.000%1.59I 62.89%NM 59.95%EV -4.46%E -2.81%K -7.56%G +0.000%4.9%2026-06-16 13:20
William Hill2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -5.01%E -2.10%K -3.63%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -5.66%E -3.61%K -9.94%G +0.000%5.7%2026-06-16 13:20
888sport2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -5.01%E -2.10%K -3.63%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -5.66%E -3.61%K -9.94%G +0.000%5.7%2026-06-16 13:19
Sky Bet2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -5.01%E -2.10%K -3.63%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -5.66%E -3.61%K -9.94%G +0.000%5.7%2026-06-16 13:20
betfred_uk2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -5.01%E -2.10%K -3.63%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -5.66%E -3.61%K -9.94%G +0.000%5.7%2026-06-16 13:20
Mr Green (SE)2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -5.01%E -2.10%K -3.63%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -5.66%E -3.61%K -9.94%G +0.000%5.7%2026-06-16 13:19
888sport (SE)2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -5.01%E -2.10%K -3.63%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -5.66%E -3.61%K -9.94%G +0.000%5.7%2026-06-16 13:19
Pinnacle2.36I 42.37%NM 41.15%EV -5.80%E -2.46%K -4.27%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 58.85%EV -0.857%E -0.519%K -1.32%G +0.000%3.0%2026-06-16 13:20
ReBet2.36I 42.37%NM 40.40%EV -5.80%E -2.46%K -4.27%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 59.60%EV -3.86%E -2.41%K -6.44%G +0.000%4.9%2026-06-16 13:19
GTbets2.35I 42.55%NM 41.40%EV -6.20%E -2.64%K -4.60%G +0.000%1.66I 60.24%NM 58.60%EV -0.256%E -0.154%K -0.388%G +0.000%2.8%2026-06-16 13:19
BetAnything2.35I 42.55%NM 40.66%EV -6.20%E -2.64%K -4.60%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 59.34%EV -3.26%E -2.03%K -5.35%G +0.000%4.7%2026-06-16 13:20
Coolbet2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -6.20%E -2.64%K -4.60%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -3.86%E -2.41%K -6.44%G +0.000%5.1%2026-06-16 13:20
Dabble (AU)2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -6.20%E -2.64%K -4.60%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -3.86%E -2.41%K -6.44%G +0.000%5.1%2026-06-16 13:20
Betclic (FR)2.35I 42.55%NM 40.20%EV -6.20%E -2.64%K -4.60%G +0.000%1.58I 63.29%NM 59.80%EV -5.06%E -3.20%K -8.73%G +0.000%5.8%2026-06-16 13:19
Caesars2.35I 42.55%NM 39.90%EV -6.20%E -2.64%K -4.60%G +0.000%1.56I 64.10%NM 60.10%EV -6.26%E -4.02%K -11.19%G +0.000%6.7%2026-06-16 13:19
Betsson2.35I 42.55%NM 39.74%EV -6.20%E -2.64%K -4.60%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 60.26%EV -6.87%E -4.43%K -12.48%G +0.000%7.1%2026-06-16 13:20
NordicBet2.35I 42.55%NM 39.74%EV -6.20%E -2.64%K -4.60%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 60.26%EV -6.87%E -4.43%K -12.48%G +0.000%7.1%2026-06-16 13:20
Tipico (DE)2.35I 42.55%NM 39.28%EV -6.20%E -2.64%K -4.60%G +0.000%1.52I 65.79%NM 60.72%EV -8.67%E -5.70%K -16.67%G +0.000%8.3%2026-06-16 13:20
Bet Right2.34I 42.74%NM 40.61%EV -6.60%E -2.82%K -4.93%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 59.39%EV -3.86%E -2.41%K -6.44%G +0.000%5.2%2026-06-16 13:20
SportsBet2.34I 42.74%NM 39.85%EV -6.60%E -2.82%K -4.93%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 60.15%EV -6.87%E -4.43%K -12.48%G +0.000%7.3%2026-06-16 13:20
1xBet2.31I 43.29%NM 41.22%EV -7.80%E -3.38%K -5.95%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 58.78%EV -2.66%E -1.64%K -4.29%G +0.000%5.0%2026-06-16 13:14
BoyleSports2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -8.20%E -3.56%K -6.31%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -2.66%E -1.64%K -4.29%G +0.000%5.2%2026-06-16 13:20
BetMGM2.30I 43.48%NM 41.18%EV -8.20%E -3.56%K -6.31%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 58.82%EV -3.26%E -2.03%K -5.35%G +0.000%5.6%2026-06-16 13:20
Marathon Bet2.30I 43.48%NM 41.18%EV -8.20%E -3.56%K -6.31%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 58.82%EV -3.26%E -2.03%K -5.35%G +0.000%5.6%2026-06-16 13:20
PlayUp2.30I 43.48%NM 41.03%EV -8.20%E -3.56%K -6.31%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 58.97%EV -3.86%E -2.41%K -6.44%G +0.000%6.0%2026-06-16 13:20
Betr (AU)2.30I 43.48%NM 40.87%EV -8.20%E -3.56%K -6.31%G +0.000%1.59I 62.89%NM 59.13%EV -4.46%E -2.81%K -7.56%G +0.000%6.4%2026-06-16 13:20
TAB2.30I 43.48%NM 40.72%EV -8.20%E -3.56%K -6.31%G +0.000%1.58I 63.29%NM 59.28%EV -5.06%E -3.20%K -8.73%G +0.000%6.8%2026-06-16 13:20
NetBet (FR)2.27I 44.05%NM 40.89%EV -9.40%E -4.14%K -7.40%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 59.11%EV -5.66%E -3.61%K -9.94%G +0.000%7.7%2026-06-16 13:20
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)2.25I 44.44%NM 41.86%EV -10.19%E -4.53%K -8.16%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%EV -2.66%E -1.64%K -4.29%G +0.000%6.2%2026-06-16 13:20
Ladbrokes (AU)2.25I 44.44%NM 41.25%EV -10.19%E -4.53%K -8.16%G +0.000%1.58I 63.29%NM 58.75%EV -5.06%E -3.20%K -8.73%G +0.000%7.7%2026-06-16 13:20
Neds2.25I 44.44%NM 41.25%EV -10.19%E -4.53%K -8.16%G +0.000%1.58I 63.29%NM 58.75%EV -5.06%E -3.20%K -8.73%G +0.000%7.7%2026-06-16 13:20
Paddy Power2.25I 44.44%NM 41.10%EV -10.19%E -4.53%K -8.16%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 58.90%EV -5.66%E -3.61%K -9.94%G +0.000%8.1%2026-06-16 13:20
Bet Victor2.25I 44.44%NM 41.10%EV -10.19%E -4.53%K -8.16%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 58.90%EV -5.66%E -3.61%K -9.94%G +0.000%8.1%2026-06-16 13:14
Ladbrokes (UK)2.25I 44.44%NM 41.10%EV -10.19%E -4.53%K -8.16%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 58.90%EV -5.66%E -3.61%K -9.94%G +0.000%8.1%2026-06-16 13:20
Coral2.25I 44.44%NM 41.10%EV -10.19%E -4.53%K -8.16%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 58.90%EV -5.66%E -3.61%K -9.94%G +0.000%8.1%2026-06-16 13:20
Everygame2.25I 44.44%NM 41.10%EV -10.19%E -4.53%K -8.16%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 58.90%EV -5.66%E -3.61%K -9.94%G +0.000%8.1%2026-06-16 13:20
Marge = Marge · I = Probabilité implicite · NM = Probabilité sans marge · EV = Espérance mathématique · E = Avantage · K = Critère de Kelly · G = Croissance du capital de jeu

Mise à jour indique le dernier changement de prix de chaque opérateur. Une heure ancienne signifie donc seulement que la cote n’a pas bougé, et non qu’elle est périmée. Les opérateurs absents du flux depuis environ 15 minutes sont normalement écartés ; les derniers prix enregistrés ne sont conservés que si le flux de tout le marché devient silencieux.

Plateformes d’échange (6)

OpérateurLocalVisiteurMarge ▲Mise à jour
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.48I 40.32%NM 40.10%1.66I 60.24%NM 59.90%0.6%2026-06-16 13:20
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.48I 40.32%NM 40.10%1.66I 60.24%NM 59.90%0.6%2026-06-16 13:20
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.48I 40.32%NM 40.10%1.66I 60.24%NM 59.90%0.6%2026-06-16 13:20
Matchbook2.48I 40.32%NM 40.10%1.66I 60.24%NM 59.90%0.6%2026-06-16 13:20
Smarkets2.44I 40.98%NM 40.05%1.63I 61.35%NM 59.95%2.3%2026-06-16 13:20
Novig2.35I 42.55%NM 41.10%1.64I 60.98%NM 58.90%3.5%2026-06-16 13:20