A Escola das Odds

Ugo Humbert v Adrian Mannarino

Início: 2026-05-25 14:00 UTC

Odds de fecho — as probabilidades calculadas e o valor esperado com base nas últimas cotações registadas antes do início, segundo o modelo selecionado. O jogo já começou, pelo que estes valores não são atuais. Avaliar a fiabilidade das previsões probabilísticas de cada modelo face aos resultados de todos os jogos concluídos →

Frente a frente

40 casas de apostas (17 na análise )

Probabilidade estimada de cada resultado, segundo o modelo: IQM

Ugo Humbert (Local)

Previsão 91.19%1.10odd justa
EV -1.52%
Vantagem -1.40%
Kelly -18.95%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 1.08

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
87.51%90.98%91.36%93.69%MINMÉDIAMEDIANAMAX
Distribuição das odds
1.011.041.041.0899.01%96.53%96.62%92.59%MINMÉDIAMEDIANAMAX

Adrian Mannarino (Visitante)

Previsão 8.81%11.35odd justa
EV +32.16%
Vantagem +2.14%
Kelly +2.30%
Crescimento +0.739%

pressupondo odds máximas de 15.00

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
6.31%9.02%8.64%12.49%MINMÉDIAMEDIANAMAX
Distribuição das odds
7.5011.0111.0015.0013.33%9.08%9.09%6.67%MINMÉDIAMEDIANAMAX

Odds das casas de apostas (40 casas de apostas)

Não temos qualquer vínculo com casas de apostas e não recebemos nada pelas ações realizadas junto delas.

Casa de apostasLocalVisitante ▼MargemAtualização
TAB1.01I 99.01%NM 93.69%EV -7.90%E -7.82%K -789.89%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.31%EV +32.16%E +2.14%K +2.30%G +0.739%5.7%2026-05-25 13:49
Pinnacle1.06I 94.34%NM 93.35%EV -3.34%E -3.15%K -55.66%G +0.000%14.89I 6.72%NM 6.65%EV +31.19%E +2.09%K +2.25%G +0.701%1.1%2026-05-25 13:40
Bovada1.03I 97.09%NM 92.66%EV -6.08%E -5.90%K -202.50%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.34%EV +14.54%E +1.12%K +1.21%G +0.176%4.8%2026-05-25 13:38
FanDuel1.03I 97.09%NM 92.66%EV -6.08%E -5.90%K -202.50%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.34%EV +14.54%E +1.12%K +1.21%G +0.176%4.8%2026-05-25 13:49
Unibet (UK)1.04I 96.15%NM 92.32%EV -5.16%E -4.96%K -129.08%G +0.000%12.50I 8.00%NM 7.68%EV +10.14%E +0.811%K +0.881%G +0.089%4.2%2026-05-25 13:49
Hard Rock Bet1.04I 96.15%NM 92.02%EV -5.16%E -4.96%K -129.08%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.98%EV +5.73%E +0.477%K +0.521%G +0.030%4.5%2026-05-25 13:50
Coral1.04I 96.15%NM 92.02%EV -5.16%E -4.96%K -129.08%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.98%EV +5.73%E +0.477%K +0.521%G +0.030%4.5%2026-05-25 13:39
Ladbrokes (UK)1.03I 97.09%NM 92.10%EV -6.08%E -5.90%K -202.50%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.90%EV +5.73%E +0.477%K +0.521%G +0.030%5.4%2026-05-25 13:40
DraftKings1.06I 94.34%NM 91.63%EV -3.34%E -3.15%K -55.66%G +0.000%11.60I 8.62%NM 8.37%EV +2.21%E +0.190%K +0.208%G +0.005%3.0%2026-05-25 13:50
Unibet1.04I 96.15%NM 91.71%EV -5.16%E -4.96%K -129.08%G +0.000%11.50I 8.70%NM 8.29%EV +1.32%E +0.115%K +0.126%G +0.002%4.8%2026-05-25 13:50
Unibet (NL)1.04I 96.15%NM 91.71%EV -5.16%E -4.96%K -129.08%G +0.000%11.50I 8.70%NM 8.29%EV +1.32%E +0.115%K +0.126%G +0.002%4.8%2026-05-25 13:50
betPARX1.04I 96.15%NM 91.71%EV -5.16%E -4.96%K -129.08%G +0.000%11.50I 8.70%NM 8.29%EV +1.32%E +0.115%K +0.126%G +0.002%4.8%2026-05-25 13:48
Svenska Spel1.04I 96.15%NM 91.71%EV -5.16%E -4.96%K -129.08%G +0.000%11.50I 8.70%NM 8.29%EV +1.32%E +0.115%K +0.126%G +0.002%4.8%2026-05-25 13:50
ATG (SE)1.04I 96.15%NM 91.71%EV -5.16%E -4.96%K -129.08%G +0.000%11.50I 8.70%NM 8.29%EV +1.32%E +0.115%K +0.126%G +0.002%4.8%2026-05-25 13:50
Unibet (SE)1.04I 96.15%NM 91.71%EV -5.16%E -4.96%K -129.08%G +0.000%11.50I 8.70%NM 8.29%EV +1.32%E +0.115%K +0.126%G +0.002%4.8%2026-05-25 13:50
Winamax (DE)1.03I 97.09%NM 91.78%EV -6.08%E -5.90%K -202.50%G +0.000%11.50I 8.70%NM 8.22%EV +1.32%E +0.115%K +0.126%G +0.002%5.8%2026-05-25 13:50
Winamax (FR)1.02I 98.04%NM 91.85%EV -6.99%E -6.85%K -349.35%G +0.000%11.50I 8.70%NM 8.15%EV +1.32%E +0.115%K +0.126%G +0.002%6.7%2026-05-25 13:50
Coolbet1.04I 96.15%NM 91.54%EV -5.16%E -4.96%K -129.08%G +0.000%11.25I 8.89%NM 8.46%EV -0.878%E -0.078%K -0.086%G +0.000%5.0%2026-05-25 13:49
theScore Bet1.04I 96.15%NM 91.36%EV -5.16%E -4.96%K -129.08%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.64%EV -3.08%E -0.280%K -0.308%G +0.000%5.2%2026-05-25 13:50
888sport1.03I 97.09%NM 91.44%EV -6.08%E -5.90%K -202.50%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.56%EV -3.08%E -0.280%K -0.308%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-25 13:50
Mr Green (SE)1.03I 97.09%NM 91.44%EV -6.08%E -5.90%K -202.50%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.56%EV -3.08%E -0.280%K -0.308%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-25 13:50
888sport (SE)1.03I 97.09%NM 91.44%EV -6.08%E -5.90%K -202.50%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.56%EV -3.08%E -0.280%K -0.308%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-25 13:50
Caesars1.03I 97.09%NM 91.44%EV -6.08%E -5.90%K -202.50%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.56%EV -3.08%E -0.280%K -0.308%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-25 13:49
NordicBet1.04I 96.15%NM 90.99%EV -5.16%E -4.96%K -129.08%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 9.01%EV -7.49%E -0.713%K -0.788%G +0.000%5.7%2026-05-25 13:50
Betsson1.04I 96.15%NM 90.99%EV -5.16%E -4.96%K -129.08%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 9.01%EV -7.49%E -0.713%K -0.788%G +0.000%5.7%2026-05-25 13:50
Fanatics1.04I 96.15%NM 90.99%EV -5.16%E -4.96%K -129.08%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 9.01%EV -7.49%E -0.713%K -0.788%G +0.000%5.7%2026-05-25 13:50
Paddy Power1.02I 98.04%NM 91.15%EV -6.99%E -6.85%K -349.35%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 8.85%EV -7.49%E -0.713%K -0.788%G +0.000%7.6%2026-05-25 13:50
Betclic (FR)1.04I 96.15%NM 90.58%EV -5.16%E -4.96%K -129.08%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.42%EV -11.89%E -1.19%K -1.32%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-25 13:38
LiveScore Bet1.03I 97.09%NM 90.66%EV -6.08%E -5.90%K -202.50%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.34%EV -11.89%E -1.19%K -1.32%G +0.000%7.1%2026-05-25 13:50
Virgin Bet1.03I 97.09%NM 90.66%EV -6.08%E -5.90%K -202.50%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.34%EV -11.89%E -1.19%K -1.32%G +0.000%7.1%2026-05-25 13:50
Grosvenor1.03I 97.09%NM 90.66%EV -6.08%E -5.90%K -202.50%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.34%EV -11.89%E -1.19%K -1.32%G +0.000%7.1%2026-05-25 13:49
Bally Bet1.03I 97.09%NM 90.66%EV -6.08%E -5.90%K -202.50%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.34%EV -11.89%E -1.19%K -1.32%G +0.000%7.1%2026-05-25 13:50
Tipico (DE)1.03I 97.09%NM 90.66%EV -6.08%E -5.90%K -202.50%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.34%EV -11.89%E -1.19%K -1.32%G +0.000%7.1%2026-05-25 13:50
BetMGM1.03I 97.09%NM 90.66%EV -6.08%E -5.90%K -202.50%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.34%EV -11.89%E -1.19%K -1.32%G +0.000%7.1%2026-05-25 13:50
LeoVegas1.02I 98.04%NM 90.74%EV -6.99%E -6.85%K -349.35%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.26%EV -11.89%E -1.19%K -1.32%G +0.000%8.0%2026-05-25 13:50
LeoVegas (SE)1.02I 98.04%NM 90.74%EV -6.99%E -6.85%K -349.35%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.26%EV -11.89%E -1.19%K -1.32%G +0.000%8.0%2026-05-25 13:50
Fliff1.02I 98.04%NM 90.53%EV -6.99%E -6.85%K -349.35%G +0.000%9.75I 10.26%NM 9.47%EV -14.09%E -1.45%K -1.61%G +0.000%8.3%2026-05-25 13:38
Bet Victor1.04I 96.15%NM 89.64%EV -5.16%E -4.96%K -129.08%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.36%EV -20.70%E -2.30%K -2.59%G +0.000%7.3%2026-05-25 13:49
Betway1.08I 92.59%NM 88.11%EV -1.52%E -1.40%K -18.95%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.89%EV -29.51%E -3.69%K -4.22%G +0.000%5.1%2026-05-25 13:50
PointsBet (AU)1.07I 93.46%NM 87.51%EV -2.43%E -2.27%K -34.68%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.49%EV -33.92%E -4.52%K -5.22%G +0.000%6.8%2026-05-25 13:50
Margem = Margem · I = Probabilidade implícita · NM = Probabilidade sem margem · EV = Valor esperado · E = Vantagem · K = Critério de Kelly · G = Crescimento do capital de apostas

Atualização indica quando cada casa alterou a cotação pela última vez; uma hora mais antiga significa apenas que as odds não mudaram, não que estejam desatualizadas. As casas sem dados nos últimos ~15 minutos são normalmente excluídas; apenas quando a fonte de todo um mercado fica sem atualizações se mostram as últimas cotações registadas.

Bolsas de apostas (6)

Casa de apostasLocalVisitanteMargem ▲Atualização
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.05I 95.24%NM 94.49%18.00I 5.56%NM 5.51%0.8%2026-05-25 13:50
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.05I 95.24%NM 94.34%17.50I 5.71%NM 5.66%1.0%2026-05-25 13:50
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.05I 95.24%NM 94.34%17.50I 5.71%NM 5.66%1.0%2026-05-25 13:50
Smarkets1.05I 95.24%NM 93.45%14.99I 6.67%NM 6.55%1.9%2026-05-25 13:50
Novig1.02I 98.04%NM 92.54%12.66I 7.90%NM 7.46%5.9%2026-05-25 13:50
Matchbook1.05I 95.24%NM 66.88%2.12I 47.17%NM 33.12%42.4%2026-05-25 13:50