Language:English
Pablo Carreno Busta v Jiri Lehecka
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Pablo Carreno Busta (Local)
Prediction 20.40%4.90fair odd
EV +18.29%
Edge +3.15%
Kelly +3.81%
Growth +0.697%
assuming max odds 5.80
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
16.43%20.26%20.46%23.37%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.004.874.805.8025.00%20.54%20.83%17.24%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Jiri Lehecka (Visit)
Prediction 79.60%1.26fair odd
EV -2.88%
Edge -2.36%
Kelly -13.10%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.22
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
76.63%79.74%79.54%83.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.111.171.171.2290.09%85.49%85.84%81.97%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Pablo Carreno Busta (Local): 20.40%; Jiri Lehecka (Visit): 79.60%. For Pablo Carreno Busta (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.90. 27 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 5.80, corresponding to a positive expected value of +18.29%.
Sportsbook Odds (62 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportsBet🎯 | 5.80I 17.24%NM 16.43%EV +18.29%E +3.15%K +3.81%G +0.697% | 1.14I 87.72%NM 83.57%EV -9.25%E -8.11%K -66.08%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-05-25 09:08 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 5.60I 17.86%NM 16.91%EV +14.21%E +2.54%K +3.09%G +0.439% | 1.14I 87.72%NM 83.09%EV -9.25%E -8.11%K -66.08%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-05-25 09:20 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.29%EV +12.17%E +2.21%K +2.71%G +0.329% | 1.15I 86.96%NM 82.71%EV -8.45%E -7.35%K -56.36%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-25 09:19 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.92%EV +12.17%E +2.21%K +2.71%G +0.329% | 1.12I 89.29%NM 83.08%EV -10.84%E -9.68%K -90.36%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-05-25 09:20 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 5.40I 18.52%NM 17.56%EV +10.14%E +1.88%K +2.30%G +0.233% | 1.15I 86.96%NM 82.44%EV -8.45%E -7.35%K -56.36%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-05-25 09:20 |
| Unibet🎯 | 5.40I 18.52%NM 17.56%EV +10.14%E +1.88%K +2.30%G +0.233% | 1.15I 86.96%NM 82.44%EV -8.45%E -7.35%K -56.36%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-05-25 09:20 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 5.40I 18.52%NM 17.56%EV +10.14%E +1.88%K +2.30%G +0.233% | 1.15I 86.96%NM 82.44%EV -8.45%E -7.35%K -56.36%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-05-25 09:20 |
| betPARX🎯 | 5.40I 18.52%NM 17.56%EV +10.14%E +1.88%K +2.30%G +0.233% | 1.15I 86.96%NM 82.44%EV -8.45%E -7.35%K -56.36%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-05-25 09:20 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 5.40I 18.52%NM 17.56%EV +10.14%E +1.88%K +2.30%G +0.233% | 1.15I 86.96%NM 82.44%EV -8.45%E -7.35%K -56.36%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-05-25 09:20 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 5.40I 18.52%NM 17.56%EV +10.14%E +1.88%K +2.30%G +0.233% | 1.15I 86.96%NM 82.44%EV -8.45%E -7.35%K -56.36%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-05-25 09:20 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 5.30I 18.87%NM 17.96%EV +8.10%E +1.53%K +1.88%G +0.152% | 1.16I 86.21%NM 82.04%EV -7.66%E -6.60%K -47.87%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-25 08:58 |
| Casumo🎯 | 5.30I 18.87%NM 17.96%EV +8.10%E +1.53%K +1.88%G +0.152% | 1.16I 86.21%NM 82.04%EV -7.66%E -6.60%K -47.87%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-25 08:58 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 5.30I 18.87%NM 17.96%EV +8.10%E +1.53%K +1.88%G +0.152% | 1.16I 86.21%NM 82.04%EV -7.66%E -6.60%K -47.87%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-25 08:58 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 5.12I 19.53%NM 18.99%EV +4.42%E +0.864%K +1.07%G +0.048% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 81.01%EV -4.47%E -3.73%K -22.37%G +0.000% | 2.9% | 2026-05-25 09:10 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 5.10I 19.61%NM 18.27%EV +4.02%E +0.788%K +0.980%G +0.039% | 1.14I 87.72%NM 81.73%EV -9.25%E -8.11%K -66.08%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-05-25 09:20 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 5.10I 19.61%NM 18.27%EV +4.02%E +0.788%K +0.980%G +0.039% | 1.14I 87.72%NM 81.73%EV -9.25%E -8.11%K -66.08%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-05-25 09:20 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 5.10I 19.61%NM 18.27%EV +4.02%E +0.788%K +0.980%G +0.039% | 1.14I 87.72%NM 81.73%EV -9.25%E -8.11%K -66.08%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-05-25 09:20 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 5.10I 19.61%NM 18.27%EV +4.02%E +0.788%K +0.980%G +0.039% | 1.14I 87.72%NM 81.73%EV -9.25%E -8.11%K -66.08%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-05-25 09:20 |
| Betway🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.09%EV +1.98%E +0.395%K +0.494%G +0.010% | 1.18I 84.75%NM 80.91%EV -6.07%E -5.14%K -33.70%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-05-25 09:20 |
| Bovada🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.09%EV +1.98%E +0.395%K +0.494%G +0.010% | 1.18I 84.75%NM 80.91%EV -6.07%E -5.14%K -33.70%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-05-25 09:18 |
| William Hill🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV +1.98%E +0.395%K +0.494%G +0.010% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%EV -6.86%E -5.87%K -40.37%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-05-25 09:04 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.83%EV +1.98%E +0.395%K +0.494%G +0.010% | 1.16I 86.21%NM 81.17%EV -7.66%E -6.60%K -47.87%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-05-25 09:10 |
| Everygame🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.83%EV +1.98%E +0.395%K +0.494%G +0.010% | 1.16I 86.21%NM 81.17%EV -7.66%E -6.60%K -47.87%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-05-25 08:58 |
| 888sport🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.57%EV +1.98%E +0.395%K +0.494%G +0.010% | 1.14I 87.72%NM 81.43%EV -9.25%E -8.11%K -66.08%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-05-25 09:20 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.57%EV +1.98%E +0.395%K +0.494%G +0.010% | 1.14I 87.72%NM 81.43%EV -9.25%E -8.11%K -66.08%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-05-25 09:20 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.57%EV +1.98%E +0.395%K +0.494%G +0.010% | 1.14I 87.72%NM 81.43%EV -9.25%E -8.11%K -66.08%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-05-25 09:20 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.43%EV +1.98%E +0.395%K +0.494%G +0.010% | 1.13I 88.50%NM 81.57%EV -10.05%E -8.89%K -77.28%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-05-25 09:20 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 4.90I 20.41%NM 18.74%EV -0.063%E -0.013%K -0.016%G +0.000% | 1.13I 88.50%NM 81.26%EV -10.05%E -8.89%K -77.28%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-05-25 09:20 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 4.85I 20.62%NM 19.70%EV -1.08%E -0.223%K -0.281%G +0.000% | 1.19I 84.03%NM 80.30%EV -5.27%E -4.43%K -27.74%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-05-25 09:00 |
| Fliff🎯 | 4.85I 20.62%NM 19.03%EV -1.08%E -0.223%K -0.281%G +0.000% | 1.14I 87.72%NM 80.97%EV -9.25%E -8.11%K -66.08%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-05-25 09:20 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 4.80I 20.83%NM 20.13%EV -2.10%E -0.438%K -0.553%G +0.000% | 1.21I 82.64%NM 79.87%EV -3.68%E -3.04%K -17.52%G +0.000% | 3.5% | 2026-05-25 09:20 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 4.80I 20.83%NM 20.00%EV -2.10%E -0.438%K -0.553%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 80.00%EV -4.47%E -3.73%K -22.37%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-05-25 08:59 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.60%EV -2.10%E -0.438%K -0.553%G +0.000% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 80.40%EV -6.86%E -5.87%K -40.37%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-05-25 09:20 |
| Coral🎯 | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.60%EV -2.10%E -0.438%K -0.553%G +0.000% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 80.40%EV -6.86%E -5.87%K -40.37%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-05-25 09:20 |
| TAB🎯 | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.90%EV -3.12%E -0.657%K -0.833%G +0.000% | 1.18I 84.75%NM 80.10%EV -6.07%E -5.14%K -33.70%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-05-25 09:20 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.63%EV -3.12%E -0.657%K -0.833%G +0.000% | 1.16I 86.21%NM 80.37%EV -7.66%E -6.60%K -47.87%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-05-25 09:20 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 4.75I 21.05%NM 18.94%EV -3.12%E -0.657%K -0.833%G +0.000% | 1.11I 90.09%NM 81.06%EV -11.64%E -10.49%K -105.81%G +0.000% | 11.1% | 2026-05-25 09:20 |
| GTbets🎯 | 4.74I 21.10%NM 20.47%EV -3.33%E -0.702%K -0.889%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 79.53%EV -2.88%E -2.36%K -13.10%G +0.000% | 3.1% | 2026-05-25 08:59 |
| MyBookie.ag🎯 | 4.70I 21.28%NM 20.34%EV -4.14%E -0.881%K -1.12%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 79.66%EV -4.47%E -3.73%K -22.37%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-05-25 09:01 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.80%EV -4.14%E -0.881%K -1.12%G +0.000% | 1.16I 86.21%NM 80.20%EV -7.66%E -6.60%K -47.87%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-05-25 09:20 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 4.65I 21.51%NM 20.51%EV -5.16%E -1.11%K -1.41%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 79.49%EV -4.47%E -3.73%K -22.37%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-05-25 09:10 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 4.65I 21.51%NM 20.51%EV -5.16%E -1.11%K -1.41%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 79.49%EV -4.47%E -3.73%K -22.37%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-05-25 09:20 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 4.65I 21.51%NM 20.38%EV -5.16%E -1.11%K -1.41%G +0.000% | 1.19I 84.03%NM 79.62%EV -5.27%E -4.43%K -27.74%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-05-25 09:20 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 4.65I 21.51%NM 20.38%EV -5.16%E -1.11%K -1.41%G +0.000% | 1.19I 84.03%NM 79.62%EV -5.27%E -4.43%K -27.74%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-05-25 09:04 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 4.61I 21.69%NM 20.79%EV -5.98%E -1.30%K -1.66%G +0.000% | 1.21I 82.64%NM 79.21%EV -3.68%E -3.04%K -17.52%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-05-25 09:09 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 4.61I 21.69%NM 20.79%EV -5.98%E -1.30%K -1.66%G +0.000% | 1.21I 82.64%NM 79.21%EV -3.68%E -3.04%K -17.52%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-05-25 09:09 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.42%EV -6.18%E -1.34%K -1.72%G +0.000% | 1.18I 84.75%NM 79.58%EV -6.07%E -5.14%K -33.70%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-05-25 09:00 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 4.54I 22.03%NM 21.04%EV -7.40%E -1.63%K -2.09%G +0.000% | 1.21I 82.64%NM 78.96%EV -3.68%E -3.04%K -17.52%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-05-25 09:10 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.05%EV -8.22%E -1.83%K -2.35%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 78.95%EV -4.47%E -3.73%K -22.37%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-05-25 09:06 |
| Neds🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.05%EV -8.22%E -1.83%K -2.35%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 78.95%EV -4.47%E -3.73%K -22.37%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-05-25 09:06 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.05%EV -8.22%E -1.83%K -2.35%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 78.95%EV -4.47%E -3.73%K -22.37%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-05-25 09:20 |
| Betsson🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.05%EV -8.22%E -1.83%K -2.35%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 78.95%EV -4.47%E -3.73%K -22.37%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-05-25 09:20 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.77%EV -8.22%E -1.83%K -2.35%G +0.000% | 1.18I 84.75%NM 79.23%EV -6.07%E -5.14%K -33.70%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-05-25 09:12 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.77%EV -8.22%E -1.83%K -2.35%G +0.000% | 1.18I 84.75%NM 79.23%EV -6.07%E -5.14%K -33.70%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-05-25 09:19 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.77%EV -8.22%E -1.83%K -2.35%G +0.000% | 1.18I 84.75%NM 79.23%EV -6.07%E -5.14%K -33.70%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-05-25 09:20 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.63%EV -8.22%E -1.83%K -2.35%G +0.000% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 79.37%EV -6.86%E -5.87%K -40.37%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-05-25 09:20 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 4.48I 22.32%NM 21.27%EV -8.63%E -1.93%K -2.48%G +0.000% | 1.21I 82.64%NM 78.73%EV -3.68%E -3.04%K -17.52%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-05-25 09:20 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.57%EV -10.26%E -2.33%K -3.02%G +0.000% | 1.21I 82.64%NM 78.43%EV -3.68%E -3.04%K -17.52%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-05-25 08:59 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 4.35I 22.99%NM 20.91%EV -11.28%E -2.59%K -3.37%G +0.000% | 1.15I 86.96%NM 79.09%EV -8.45%E -7.35%K -56.36%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-05-25 09:20 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.64%EV -14.34%E -3.41%K -4.48%G +0.000% | 1.16I 86.21%NM 78.36%EV -7.66%E -6.60%K -47.87%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-05-25 09:20 |
| Caesars🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.37%EV -18.42%E -4.60%K -6.14%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 76.63%EV -2.88%E -2.36%K -13.10%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-05-25 09:19 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.18%EV -18.42%E -4.60%K -6.14%G +0.000% | 1.14I 87.72%NM 77.82%EV -9.25%E -8.11%K -66.08%G +0.000% | 12.7% | 2026-05-25 09:20 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (6)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 6.60I 15.15%NM 15.06% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 84.94% | 0.6% | 2026-05-25 09:20 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 6.40I 15.63%NM 15.46% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 84.54% | 1.1% | 2026-05-25 09:20 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 6.40I 15.63%NM 15.46% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 84.54% | 1.1% | 2026-05-25 09:20 |
| Matchbook◎ | 6.40I 15.63%NM 15.46% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 84.54% | 1.1% | 2026-05-25 09:20 |
| Smarkets◎ | 6.20I 16.13%NM 15.88% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 84.12% | 1.6% | 2026-05-25 09:20 |
| Novig◎ | 5.85I 17.09%NM 14.60% | 1.00I 100.00%NM 85.40% | 17.1% | 2026-05-25 09:20 |