A Escola das Odds

Mariano Navone v Jenson Brooksby

Início: 2026-05-25 13:00 UTC

Odds de fecho — as probabilidades calculadas e o valor esperado com base nas últimas cotações registadas antes do início, segundo o modelo selecionado. O jogo já começou, pelo que estes valores não são atuais. Avaliar a fiabilidade das previsões probabilísticas de cada modelo face aos resultados de todos os jogos concluídos →

Frente a frente

41 casas de apostas (17 na análise )

Probabilidade estimada de cada resultado, segundo o modelo: IQM

Mariano Navone (Local)

Previsão 75.72%1.32odd justa
EV +0.705%
Vantagem +0.530%
Kelly +2.14%
Crescimento +0.015%

pressupondo odds máximas de 1.33

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
69.98%75.67%75.73%80.71%MINMÉDIAMEDIANAMAX
Distribuição das odds
1.181.261.251.3384.75%79.57%80.00%75.19%MINMÉDIAMEDIANAMAX

Jenson Brooksby (Visitante)

Previsão 24.28%4.12odd justa
EV +21.90%
Vantagem +4.36%
Kelly +5.45%
Crescimento +1.19%

pressupondo odds máximas de 5.02

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
19.29%24.33%24.27%30.02%MINMÉDIAMEDIANAMAX
Distribuição das odds
3.103.743.605.0232.26%26.72%27.78%19.92%MINMÉDIAMEDIANAMAX

Odds das casas de apostas (41 casas de apostas)

Não temos qualquer vínculo com casas de apostas e não recebemos nada pelas ações realizadas junto delas.

Casa de apostasLocalVisitante ▼MargemAtualização
Pinnacle1.20I 83.33%NM 80.71%EV -9.14%E -7.62%K -45.69%G +0.000%5.02I 19.92%NM 19.29%EV +21.90%E +4.36%K +5.45%G +1.19%3.3%2026-05-25 12:40
FanDuel1.18I 84.75%NM 80.27%EV -10.65%E -9.03%K -59.18%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.73%EV +16.55%E +3.45%K +4.36%G +0.721%5.6%2026-05-25 12:50
TAB1.18I 84.75%NM 80.10%EV -10.65%E -9.03%K -59.18%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.90%EV +15.34%E +3.23%K +4.09%G +0.627%5.8%2026-05-25 12:49
Betsson1.22I 81.97%NM 77.70%EV -7.62%E -6.25%K -34.65%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.30%EV +3.20%E +0.753%K +0.984%G +0.031%5.5%2026-05-25 12:50
Unibet (UK)1.25I 80.00%NM 76.64%EV -5.35%E -4.28%K -21.41%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.36%EV -0.444%E -0.108%K -0.143%G +0.000%4.4%2026-05-25 12:50
Betway1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -5.35%E -4.28%K -21.41%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -2.87%E -0.718%K -0.957%G +0.000%5.0%2026-05-25 12:50
Bovada1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -5.35%E -4.28%K -21.41%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -2.87%E -0.718%K -0.957%G +0.000%5.0%2026-05-25 12:50
Coolbet1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -5.35%E -4.28%K -21.41%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -2.87%E -0.718%K -0.957%G +0.000%5.0%2026-05-25 12:50
theScore Bet1.22I 81.97%NM 76.63%EV -7.62%E -6.25%K -34.65%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.37%EV -2.87%E -0.718%K -0.957%G +0.000%7.0%2026-05-25 12:50
Paddy Power1.20I 83.33%NM 76.92%EV -9.14%E -7.62%K -45.69%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.08%EV -2.87%E -0.718%K -0.957%G +0.000%8.3%2026-05-25 12:39
NordicBet1.25I 80.00%NM 75.96%EV -5.35%E -4.28%K -21.41%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.04%EV -4.09%E -1.03%K -1.39%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-25 12:50
DraftKings1.26I 79.37%NM 75.63%EV -4.60%E -3.65%K -17.67%G +0.000%3.91I 25.58%NM 24.37%EV -5.06%E -1.29%K -1.74%G +0.000%4.9%2026-05-25 12:50
Fanatics1.25I 80.00%NM 75.73%EV -5.35%E -4.28%K -21.41%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.27%EV -5.30%E -1.36%K -1.83%G +0.000%5.6%2026-05-25 12:38
Caesars1.25I 80.00%NM 75.25%EV -5.35%E -4.28%K -21.41%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.75%EV -7.73%E -2.03%K -2.76%G +0.000%6.3%2026-05-25 12:40
Betclic (FR)1.21I 82.64%NM 75.85%EV -8.38%E -6.93%K -39.91%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.15%EV -7.73%E -2.03%K -2.76%G +0.000%9.0%2026-05-25 12:46
888sport1.25I 80.00%NM 75.00%EV -5.35%E -4.28%K -21.41%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.00%EV -8.94%E -2.38%K -3.25%G +0.000%6.7%2026-05-25 12:50
PointsBet (AU)1.25I 80.00%NM 75.00%EV -5.35%E -4.28%K -21.41%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.00%EV -8.94%E -2.38%K -3.25%G +0.000%6.7%2026-05-25 12:50
Mr Green (SE)1.25I 80.00%NM 75.00%EV -5.35%E -4.28%K -21.41%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.00%EV -8.94%E -2.38%K -3.25%G +0.000%6.7%2026-05-25 12:50
888sport (SE)1.25I 80.00%NM 75.00%EV -5.35%E -4.28%K -21.41%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.00%EV -8.94%E -2.38%K -3.25%G +0.000%6.7%2026-05-25 12:50
Fliff1.23I 81.30%NM 74.80%EV -6.87%E -5.58%K -29.86%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.20%EV -11.37%E -3.12%K -4.29%G +0.000%8.7%2026-05-25 12:50
Unibet (NL)1.29I 77.52%NM 73.62%EV -2.32%E -1.80%K -8.01%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.38%EV -12.58%E -3.50%K -4.84%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-25 12:50
Unibet (SE)1.29I 77.52%NM 73.62%EV -2.32%E -1.80%K -8.01%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.38%EV -12.58%E -3.50%K -4.84%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-25 12:50
betPARX1.29I 77.52%NM 73.62%EV -2.32%E -1.80%K -8.01%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.38%EV -12.58%E -3.50%K -4.84%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-25 12:50
ATG (SE)1.29I 77.52%NM 73.62%EV -2.32%E -1.80%K -8.01%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.38%EV -12.58%E -3.50%K -4.84%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-25 12:50
Svenska Spel1.29I 77.52%NM 73.62%EV -2.32%E -1.80%K -8.01%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.38%EV -12.58%E -3.50%K -4.84%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-25 12:50
Tipico (DE)1.25I 80.00%NM 74.23%EV -5.35%E -4.28%K -21.41%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.77%EV -12.58%E -3.50%K -4.84%G +0.000%7.8%2026-05-25 12:50
Coral1.28I 78.13%NM 73.22%EV -3.08%E -2.41%K -11.00%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.78%EV -15.01%E -4.29%K -6.01%G +0.000%6.7%2026-05-25 12:50
Winamax (DE)1.24I 80.65%NM 73.84%EV -6.11%E -4.93%K -25.46%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.16%EV -15.01%E -4.29%K -6.01%G +0.000%9.2%2026-05-25 12:50
LiveScore Bet1.28I 78.13%NM 72.94%EV -3.08%E -2.41%K -11.00%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.06%EV -16.23%E -4.70%K -6.62%G +0.000%7.1%2026-05-25 12:50
Virgin Bet1.28I 78.13%NM 72.94%EV -3.08%E -2.41%K -11.00%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.06%EV -16.23%E -4.70%K -6.62%G +0.000%7.1%2026-05-25 12:50
Bally Bet1.28I 78.13%NM 72.94%EV -3.08%E -2.41%K -11.00%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.06%EV -16.23%E -4.70%K -6.62%G +0.000%7.1%2026-05-25 12:50
LeoVegas1.26I 79.37%NM 73.25%EV -4.60%E -3.65%K -17.67%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.75%EV -16.23%E -4.70%K -6.62%G +0.000%8.4%2026-05-25 12:50
Winamax (FR)1.22I 81.97%NM 73.88%EV -7.62%E -6.25%K -34.65%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.12%EV -16.23%E -4.70%K -6.62%G +0.000%11.0%2026-05-25 12:50
Unibet1.32I 75.76%NM 72.03%EV -0.052%E -0.040%K -0.163%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.97%EV -17.44%E -5.13%K -7.27%G +0.000%5.2%2026-05-25 12:50
Hard Rock Bet1.31I 76.34%NM 72.19%EV -0.809%E -0.618%K -2.61%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.81%EV -17.44%E -5.13%K -7.27%G +0.000%5.7%2026-05-25 12:50
Ladbrokes (UK)1.28I 78.13%NM 72.65%EV -3.08%E -2.41%K -11.00%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.35%EV -17.44%E -5.13%K -7.27%G +0.000%7.5%2026-05-25 12:50
LeoVegas (SE)1.26I 79.37%NM 72.96%EV -4.60%E -3.65%K -17.67%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.04%EV -17.44%E -5.13%K -7.27%G +0.000%8.8%2026-05-25 12:50
PMU (FR)1.23I 81.30%NM 73.14%EV -6.87%E -5.58%K -29.86%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.86%EV -18.66%E -5.57%K -7.94%G +0.000%11.2%2026-05-25 12:50
BetMGM1.31I 76.34%NM 71.58%EV -0.809%E -0.618%K -2.61%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.42%EV -19.87%E -6.02%K -8.64%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-25 12:50
Grosvenor1.30I 76.92%NM 71.74%EV -1.57%E -1.21%K -5.22%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.26%EV -19.87%E -6.02%K -8.64%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-25 12:50
Bet Victor1.33I 75.19%NM 69.98%EV +0.705%E +0.530%K +2.14%G +0.015%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.02%EV -24.73%E -7.98%K -11.77%G +0.000%7.4%2026-05-25 12:48
Margem = Margem · I = Probabilidade implícita · NM = Probabilidade sem margem · EV = Valor esperado · E = Vantagem · K = Critério de Kelly · G = Crescimento do capital de apostas

Atualização indica quando cada casa alterou a cotação pela última vez; uma hora mais antiga significa apenas que as odds não mudaram, não que estejam desatualizadas. As casas sem dados nos últimos ~15 minutos são normalmente excluídas; apenas quando a fonte de todo um mercado fica sem atualizações se mostram as últimas cotações registadas.

Bolsas de apostas (6)

Casa de apostasLocalVisitanteMargem ▲Atualização
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.31I 76.34%NM 75.79%4.10I 24.39%NM 24.21%0.7%2026-05-25 12:50
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.29I 77.52%NM 76.92%4.30I 23.26%NM 23.08%0.8%2026-05-25 12:50
Smarkets1.32I 75.76%NM 74.47%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.53%1.7%2026-05-25 12:50
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.26I 79.37%NM 77.74%4.40I 22.73%NM 22.26%2.1%2026-05-25 12:50
Matchbook1.28I 78.13%NM 75.53%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.47%3.4%2026-05-25 12:50
Novig1.25I 80.00%NM 75.49%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.51%6.0%2026-05-25 12:50