Language:English
James Duckworth v Gabriel Diallo
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
James Duckworth (Local)
Prediction 40.19%2.49fair odd
EV +2.48%
Edge +0.973%
Kelly +1.60%
Growth +0.040%
assuming max odds 2.55
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
37.04%40.25%40.03%43.42%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.102.352.372.5547.62%42.50%42.28%39.22%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Gabriel Diallo (Visit)
Prediction 59.81%1.67fair odd
EV -0.116%
Edge -0.069%
Kelly -0.173%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.67
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
56.58%59.75%59.97%62.96%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.461.571.571.6768.49%63.69%63.69%59.88%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: James Duckworth (Local): 40.19%; Gabriel Diallo (Visit): 59.81%. For James Duckworth (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.49. 12 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.55, corresponding to a positive expected value of +2.48%.
Sportsbook Odds (58 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV +2.48%E +0.973%K +1.60%G +0.040% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.96%EV -10.28%E -6.86%K -20.57%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-05-24 09:19 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 2.53I 39.53%NM 38.44%EV +1.68%E +0.663%K +1.10%G +0.018% | 1.58I 63.29%NM 61.56%EV -5.50%E -3.48%K -9.48%G +0.000% | 2.8% | 2026-05-24 09:00 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 2.51I 39.84%NM 38.02%EV +0.875%E +0.349%K +0.579%G +0.005% | 1.54I 64.94%NM 61.98%EV -7.89%E -5.12%K -14.61%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-05-24 08:59 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 38.57%EV +0.473%E +0.189%K +0.315%G +0.001% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 61.43%EV -6.10%E -3.88%K -10.70%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-05-24 09:00 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 38.42%EV +0.473%E +0.189%K +0.315%G +0.001% | 1.56I 64.10%NM 61.58%EV -6.70%E -4.29%K -11.96%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-05-24 09:00 |
| Betway🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 38.27%EV +0.473%E +0.189%K +0.315%G +0.001% | 1.55I 64.52%NM 61.73%EV -7.29%E -4.71%K -13.26%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-05-24 09:20 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV +0.473%E +0.189%K +0.315%G +0.001% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -8.49%E -5.55%K -16.02%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-05-24 09:10 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.81%EV +0.473%E +0.189%K +0.315%G +0.001% | 1.52I 65.79%NM 62.19%EV -9.09%E -5.98%K -17.48%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-05-24 09:10 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.19%EV +0.473%E +0.189%K +0.315%G +0.001% | 1.48I 67.57%NM 62.81%EV -11.48%E -7.76%K -23.92%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-05-24 09:19 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 2.49I 40.16%NM 38.82%EV +0.071%E +0.029%K +0.048%G +0.000% | 1.58I 63.29%NM 61.18%EV -5.50%E -3.48%K -9.48%G +0.000% | 3.5% | 2026-05-24 09:11 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 2.49I 40.16%NM 38.82%EV +0.071%E +0.029%K +0.048%G +0.000% | 1.58I 63.29%NM 61.18%EV -5.50%E -3.48%K -9.48%G +0.000% | 3.5% | 2026-05-24 09:11 |
| MyBookie.ag🎯 | 2.49I 40.16%NM 38.21%EV +0.071%E +0.029%K +0.048%G +0.000% | 1.54I 64.94%NM 61.79%EV -7.89%E -5.12%K -14.61%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-24 08:58 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.75%EV -1.54%E -0.627%K -1.06%G +0.000% | 1.55I 64.52%NM 61.25%EV -7.29%E -4.71%K -13.26%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-24 09:00 |
| Neds🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.75%EV -1.54%E -0.627%K -1.06%G +0.000% | 1.55I 64.52%NM 61.25%EV -7.29%E -4.71%K -13.26%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-24 09:00 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.60%EV -1.54%E -0.627%K -1.06%G +0.000% | 1.54I 64.94%NM 61.40%EV -7.89%E -5.12%K -14.61%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-05-24 08:59 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.44%EV -1.54%E -0.627%K -1.06%G +0.000% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 61.56%EV -8.49%E -5.55%K -16.02%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-05-24 09:00 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 37.34%EV -1.54%E -0.627%K -1.06%G +0.000% | 1.46I 68.49%NM 62.66%EV -12.68%E -8.68%K -27.56%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-05-24 09:17 |
| Casumo🎯 | 2.43I 41.15%NM 39.10%EV -2.34%E -0.963%K -1.64%G +0.000% | 1.56I 64.10%NM 60.90%EV -6.70%E -4.29%K -11.96%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-24 09:08 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 2.43I 41.15%NM 39.10%EV -2.34%E -0.963%K -1.64%G +0.000% | 1.56I 64.10%NM 60.90%EV -6.70%E -4.29%K -11.96%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-24 09:08 |
| GTbets🎯 | 2.41I 41.49%NM 38.68%EV -3.14%E -1.30%K -2.23%G +0.000% | 1.52I 65.79%NM 61.32%EV -9.09%E -5.98%K -17.48%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-05-24 08:59 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 40.00%EV -3.55%E -1.48%K -2.53%G +0.000% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 60.00%EV -4.30%E -2.69%K -7.17%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-05-24 09:19 |
| Bovada🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.85%EV -3.55%E -1.48%K -2.53%G +0.000% | 1.59I 62.89%NM 60.15%EV -4.90%E -3.08%K -8.31%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-05-24 08:58 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.39%EV -3.55%E -1.48%K -2.53%G +0.000% | 1.56I 64.10%NM 60.61%EV -6.70%E -4.29%K -11.96%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-05-24 09:00 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.24%EV -3.55%E -1.48%K -2.53%G +0.000% | 1.55I 64.52%NM 60.76%EV -7.29%E -4.71%K -13.26%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-05-24 09:00 |
| Everygame🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.24%EV -3.55%E -1.48%K -2.53%G +0.000% | 1.55I 64.52%NM 60.76%EV -7.29%E -4.71%K -13.26%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-05-24 09:00 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.93%EV -3.55%E -1.48%K -2.53%G +0.000% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 61.07%EV -8.49%E -5.55%K -16.02%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-05-24 09:20 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 2.39I 41.84%NM 39.65%EV -3.95%E -1.65%K -2.84%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.35%EV -6.10%E -3.88%K -10.70%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-05-24 08:57 |
| William Hill🎯 | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -4.35%E -1.83%K -3.15%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -6.10%E -3.88%K -10.70%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-05-24 09:00 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.13%EV -4.35%E -1.83%K -3.15%G +0.000% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 60.87%EV -8.49%E -5.55%K -16.02%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-05-24 09:20 |
| Betsson🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.05%EV -5.56%E -2.36%K -4.12%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 59.95%EV -6.10%E -3.88%K -10.70%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-05-24 09:10 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.05%EV -5.56%E -2.36%K -4.12%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 59.95%EV -6.10%E -3.88%K -10.70%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-05-24 09:19 |
| Caesars🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 39.90%EV -5.56%E -2.36%K -4.12%G +0.000% | 1.56I 64.10%NM 60.10%EV -6.70%E -4.29%K -11.96%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-05-24 09:19 |
| Unibet🎯 | 2.33I 42.92%NM 40.26%EV -6.36%E -2.73%K -4.78%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 59.74%EV -6.10%E -3.88%K -10.70%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-05-24 09:10 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 2.33I 42.92%NM 40.26%EV -6.36%E -2.73%K -4.78%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 59.74%EV -6.10%E -3.88%K -10.70%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-05-24 09:10 |
| betPARX🎯 | 2.33I 42.92%NM 40.26%EV -6.36%E -2.73%K -4.78%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 59.74%EV -6.10%E -3.88%K -10.70%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-05-24 09:20 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 2.33I 42.92%NM 40.26%EV -6.36%E -2.73%K -4.78%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 59.74%EV -6.10%E -3.88%K -10.70%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-05-24 09:10 |
| TAB🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -7.56%E -3.29%K -5.82%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -3.11%E -1.92%K -5.01%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-05-24 09:19 |
| 888sport🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.57%EV -7.56%E -3.29%K -5.82%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 59.43%EV -6.10%E -3.88%K -10.70%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-05-24 09:20 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.57%EV -7.56%E -3.29%K -5.82%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 59.43%EV -6.10%E -3.88%K -10.70%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-05-24 09:20 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.26%EV -7.56%E -3.29%K -5.82%G +0.000% | 1.55I 64.52%NM 59.74%EV -7.29%E -4.71%K -13.26%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-05-24 09:20 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 2.29I 43.67%NM 41.28%EV -7.97%E -3.48%K -6.18%G +0.000% | 1.61I 62.11%NM 58.72%EV -3.70%E -2.30%K -6.07%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-05-24 09:20 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 2.28I 43.86%NM 40.63%EV -8.37%E -3.67%K -6.54%G +0.000% | 1.56I 64.10%NM 59.38%EV -6.70%E -4.29%K -11.96%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-05-24 09:10 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -9.57%E -4.26%K -7.66%G +0.000% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -1.31%E -0.795%K -2.02%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-24 09:20 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.86%EV -9.57%E -4.26%K -7.66%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%EV -3.11%E -1.92%K -5.01%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-05-24 09:20 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.56%EV -9.57%E -4.26%K -7.66%G +0.000% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 58.44%EV -4.30%E -2.69%K -7.17%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-05-24 09:19 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.10%EV -9.57%E -4.26%K -7.66%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 58.90%EV -6.10%E -3.88%K -10.70%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-05-24 09:20 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.10%EV -9.57%E -4.26%K -7.66%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 58.90%EV -6.10%E -3.88%K -10.70%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-05-24 09:20 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.10%EV -9.57%E -4.26%K -7.66%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 58.90%EV -6.10%E -3.88%K -10.70%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-05-24 09:20 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -11.58%E -5.27%K -9.65%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -0.116%E -0.069%K -0.173%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-24 09:20 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.41%EV -11.58%E -5.27%K -9.65%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 57.59%EV -3.11%E -1.92%K -5.01%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-05-24 09:20 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.41%EV -11.58%E -5.27%K -9.65%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 57.59%EV -3.11%E -1.92%K -5.01%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-05-24 09:20 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.26%EV -11.58%E -5.27%K -9.65%G +0.000% | 1.61I 62.11%NM 57.74%EV -3.70%E -2.30%K -6.07%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-05-24 09:20 |
| Fliff🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 41.64%EV -11.58%E -5.27%K -9.65%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 58.36%EV -6.10%E -3.88%K -10.70%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-05-24 09:20 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 2.18I 45.87%NM 43.23%EV -12.39%E -5.68%K -10.50%G +0.000% | 1.66I 60.24%NM 56.77%EV -0.714%E -0.430%K -1.08%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-05-24 09:20 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 2.18I 45.87%NM 43.23%EV -12.39%E -5.68%K -10.50%G +0.000% | 1.66I 60.24%NM 56.77%EV -0.714%E -0.430%K -1.08%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-05-24 09:20 |
| Coral🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.42%EV -13.59%E -6.32%K -11.82%G +0.000% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 56.58%EV -1.31%E -0.795%K -2.02%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-05-24 09:20 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 43.24%EV -15.60%E -7.43%K -14.18%G +0.000% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 56.76%EV -4.30%E -2.69%K -7.17%G +0.000% | 10.1% | 2026-05-24 09:20 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 41.99%EV -15.60%E -7.43%K -14.18%G +0.000% | 1.52I 65.79%NM 58.01%EV -9.09%E -5.98%K -17.48%G +0.000% | 13.4% | 2026-05-24 09:19 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (6)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 2.34I 42.74%NM 42.36% | 1.72I 58.14%NM 57.64% | 0.9% | 2026-05-24 09:20 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 2.58I 38.76%NM 38.28% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 61.72% | 1.3% | 2026-05-24 09:20 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 2.32I 43.10%NM 42.43% | 1.71I 58.48%NM 57.57% | 1.6% | 2026-05-24 09:20 |
| Smarkets◎ | 2.32I 43.10%NM 41.85% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 58.15% | 3.0% | 2026-05-24 09:20 |
| Matchbook◎ | 2.34I 42.74%NM 40.91% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 59.09% | 4.5% | 2026-05-24 09:20 |
| Novig◎ | 2.17I 46.08%NM 42.44% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 57.56% | 8.6% | 2026-05-24 09:20 |